Why Toronto Blue Jays are the Ideal Team to Spoil Los Angeles Dodgers’ Dynasty

Despite losing the first two games of the ALCS and trailing the Seattle Mariners 3-1 late into the do-or-die Game 7 on Monday night, George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays completed the multi-layered comeback to punch their first ticket to the World Series in more than three decades.

Waiting for them when play resumes on Friday will be the red-hot and well-rested Los Angeles Dodgers, with -215 odds of repeating as World Series champions, per DraftKings.

But before you go writing off Toronto as the final sacrificial lamb before another Dodgers victory parade, allow us to explain why the Blue Jays could be a nightmare draw for LA.

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Let’s start out with a fun fact that would have worked for us regardless of whether Seattle or Toronto had won Game 7:

This will be the fifth World Series since the ALCS/NLCS expanded to a best-of-seven format in 1985 in which one LCS went the distance while the other ended in a sweep.

Each of the previous four times that happened? The team that swept turned around and lost the World Series—and in a hurry.

• 1988: Oakland A’s swept ALCS; Los Angeles Dodgers won NLCS in seven games; Dodgers beat A’s in five games.
• 2006: Detroit Tigers swept ALCS; St. Louis Cardinals won NLCS in seven games; Cardinals beat Tigers in five games.
• 2007: Colorado Rockies swept NLCS; Boston Red Sox won ALCS in seven games; Red Sox swept Rockies.
• 2012: Detroit Tigers swept ALCS; San Francisco Giants won NLCS in seven games; Giants swept Tigers.

In all four cases, ye olde “Rust vs. Rest” debate absolutely decimated the offense in question. Each team had at least six days (nine, in Colorado’s case) between winning LCS Game 4 and Game 1 of the World Series. Those four teams scored a combined total of 38 runs in those 18 World Series games (2.1 per contest).

Seven-day gap or not, it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers’ bats going that cold, right? They ranked second in the majors with 825 runs scored during the regular season!

Well, the 2007 Rockies scored 860 runs, the 2006 Tigers went for 822 and the 1988 Athletics almost led the majors with 800 runs. None of them could overcome the rust.

Toronto’s Offense is Relentless

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One of the biggest reasons the Dodgers were such a clear World Series favorite before this season ever began is how airtight the lineup is. Pretty much any contender can get big hits from the top five spots in their order, but there’s just no relief when you’ve got the likes of Andy Pages and Kiké Hernández bringing up the rear.

Nevertheless, there’s a case to be made that Toronto’s offense is even more relentless than what Los Angeles brings to the table.

At any rate, it definitely has been thus far in October.

Ernie Clement has been sensational in the 6-hole, going 18-for-42 with just two strikeouts. Addison Barger has plenty of pop behind him with two postseason dingers after 21 in the regular season. Even Andrés Giménez batting ninth was massive in getting Toronto back into the ALCS with a combined six RBI in Games 3 and 4.

As an entire team, they’re batting .296 through 11 postseason games. And if you can believe this in today’s era of whiff rates, the Blue Jays have more runs scored (71) than the number of times they’ve struck out (64).

[If you’re wondering, Dodgers batters have more than twice as many strikeouts (93) as runs scored (46).]

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You might think that Toronto’s whiff aversion would mean their batters face fewer pitches and that opposing starters are more likely to last deep into games against them.

However, with the exception of Clement still trying to meet a pitch that he hasn’t liked, Blue Jays batters actually do a solid job of working the count and managed to chase each of the last six Mariners starters they faced in four innings or fewer.

And that right there is the biggest key to toppling the mighty Dodgers.

They’ve played 10 postseason games thus far, logging a quality start in eight of them. The two exceptions were when Tyler Glasnow got pulled at 5.2 IP and their lone loss of October, in which Yoshinobu Yamamoto only lasted four innings.

Regardless of whether they’re racking up strikeouts, if you let Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani and Co. cook into the seventh or eighth inning of starts, you’re just digging your own grave.

Work the count, though, while putting up the occasional crooked number along the way. Force Dave Roberts to turn to the likes of Blake Treinen, Anthony Banda, Alex Vesia—and maybe even October Clayton Kershaw—to get through those middle innings and, well, say hello to the Achilles heel of this so-called juggernaut that we’ve been talking about for months.

Now, it does bear mentioning that the bullpen is also, hands down, the biggest weakness for the Blue Jays. Jeff Hoffman striking out the side in order in Game 7 of the ALCS to bring his postseason ERA down to just 1.23 feels like some combination of voodoo magic and fools’ gold after the regular season he had. And he’s just about the only member of Toronto’s bullpen that hasn’t taken at least one on the chin this postseason.

When it’s two unstoppable offenses against two very movable bullpens, though, things could go either way. Maybe Hoffman stays hot for another week?

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In the build-up to this World Series, a lot of people are going to talk like it’s the 115-win Dodgers preparing to destroy some 82-win Blue Jays team that accidentally snuck into the playoff bracket.

Let’s not forget, though, that while Los Angeles is the clear betting favorite, Toronto won one more game during the regular season and will have home-field advantage in this series.

And in case you weren’t already well aware of how raucous things can get at the Rogers Centre, the near earthquake they caused when George Springer hit that home run on Monday night was a vivid example of the hornet’s nest into which the Dodgers will be walking.

Yes, Toronto lost Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS at home, but bookended it with 23 runs in the first two games of the ALDS against the Yankees and an incredible showing in Games 6 and 7 against Seattle. It was also at home that they ended the regular season with a very loud, 13-run onslaught to jump-start a run that they hope will end as ceremoniously as it did back in 1992 and 1993.

They’re underdogs, but they’re the furthest thing from undeserving. And with the way Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been tearing the cover off the ball in recent weeks, it may well be the $500M man getting his first World Series ring, instead of the $700M man (Ohtani) securing his second in a row.

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