Zach KramOct 13, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
- Zach Kram is a national NBA writer for ESPN.com, specializing in short- and long-term trends across the league’s analytics landscape. He previously worked at The Ringer covering the NBA and MLB. You can follow Zach on X via @zachkram.
A decade after winning the first of four titles to start a dynasty, the Golden State Warriors have seemingly been passed by the rest of the Western Conference.
According to ESPN BET, the Warriors have just the seventh-best odds to win the West this season, behind the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves and LA Clippers.
That placement makes some sense. Golden State was the No. 7 seed last season, bowed out in five games in the second round and could boast the oldest starting lineup in NBA history this season. If Buddy Hield joins Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Draymond Green and Al Horford in the starting lineup after Hield’s birthday on Dec. 17, the Warriors would be the first team to start five players 33 or older in a game, according to ESPN Research.
But that quick, pessimistic summary severely underrates Golden State’s potential. In contrast, the Warriors profile as one of the most dangerous teams in the West, even in their dotage, and they might even be able to compete with the omnipotent Thunder. The NBA’s last repeat champion could be a sleeper that stops the newest candidate from repeating.
Are the Warriors being underestimated this season? Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
A full season with Curry and Butler
Projections from ESPN’s Kevin Pelton place the Warriors second in the entire NBA, with a forecast of 56 wins — closer to the top of the West than to the play-in portion of the standings.
What explains the discrepancy between that projection and the general perception that the Warriors’ window has closed? Here’s the simple explanation: In half a season with Butler, the Warriors were one of the best teams in the league, and they improved in the offseason. By that logic, they should be a contender again this season.
Golden State upset the second-seeded Rockets in the first round and took Game 1 against the Timberwolves before running out of steam without Curry, who suffered a hamstring strain 13 minutes into the series. There’s no shame in losing that way, as any contender would expect to struggle without its best player.
Don’t let the 2024-25 Warriors’ meek playoff exit mask their remarkable in-season turnaround, though. Before the Butler trade, Golden State was 25-26 with a minus-0.4 net rating. But from Butler’s debut through the end of the regular season, it ranked first in defensive rating and third in net, at plus-9.2 per 100 possessions. The team’s 23-8 record in that span — which extrapolates to 61 wins over a full season — wasn’t a fluke.
With Curry back and Butler on board for a full season, there’s no reason to think Golden State will be any worse this season. The Warriors should benefit from incredible continuity. Twelve of their top 13 players in 2024-25 postseason minutes will return in 2025-26, and they upgraded on the one departure (Kevon Looney) with Horford, who left the Boston Celtics in free agency.
Al Horford’s arrival in Golden State is crucial and provides Curry a big man he can rely on. Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images
Horford’s impact
Horford’s arrival in Golden State is crucial, as Curry has never played with a big man like the 39-year-old NBA champion before. Among Warriors centers since Curry’s breakout season (2012-13), the leaders in total 3-point makes are Dario Saric, who made 74 3s as a backup center in 2023-24, and Quinten Post, who sank 73 as a rookie last season.
By comparison, Horford has made triple-digit 3s in each of the past three seasons, and his 40.9% 3-point mark over that span is the best among all centers with at least 100 makes, narrowly ahead of Karl-Anthony Towns’ 40.8%. His ability to stretch the floor will provide important balance next to Butler and Green, who can both be reluctant shooters.
Horford is also a far superior defender and creator to Saric and Post, making him a better all-around fit for the Warriors’ lineup. There is tremendous defensive potential in a frontcourt featuring Butler, Green and Horford, who have a combined 15 All-Defensive Team appearances in their careers.
A strong defense, after all, is just as central to the Warriors’ winning identity as Curry’s deep 3s. In 2021-22, their last title season, the Warriors finished second in defensive rating versus just 16th on offense. And last year, Golden State led the league in defensive rating after Butler’s arrival — even without Horford, and even with their opponents making an unsustainably high percentage of their 3-point tries.
A well-rounded roster
Golden State should also be better on the other end this season. In 2024-25, the offense hummed as long as Curry was on the floor but fell apart when he rested; lineups without Curry or Butler placed in just the 5th percentile in offensive rating, per Cleaning the Glass.
Butler stabilized those groups, though, and the Warriors ended up looking solid as long as one of those stars was on the floor.
Warriors in 2024-25
SplitNet RatingCurry on, Butler on+7.0Curry on, Butler off+5.4Curry off, Butler on+12.8Curry off, Butler off-7.0
Age and availability could get in the way of that plan. Curry has missed an average of 15 games per season since sitting out nearly all of 2019-20, while Butler hasn’t reached the 65-game threshold for NBA awards since 2018-19.
The Warriors will likely struggle once again when Curry goes to the bench in games that Butler misses. Jonathan Kuminga, who is still a Warrior for now after a protracted restricted free agency, could play an important role as the best scoring option in no-Curry, no-Butler minutes; he averaged 24.3 points on 55% shooting in the Warriors’ final four playoff games last season.
Or Kuminga could improve the team by helping to facilitate a midseason trade. Kuminga is the only Warriors player with a cap hit between $12 million and $25 million this season, meaning he’d provide the necessary matching salary to get Golden State another sizable deal at the deadline.
For now, though, it’s unclear at what position the Warriors would need to improve. As the season approaches, they’re operating with an enviable combination of star power and depth.
Five different Warriors — Curry, Butler, Green, Horford and Brandin Podziemski — rank among the top 10% most impactful players in the league on a per-possession basis, according to the advanced stat xRAPM, which blends play-by-play and on/off data. The only other teams with more than three such players are the Thunder, Rockets and Cleveland Cavaliers.
And behind that quintet, the Warriors have a mishmash of role players on the perimeter — Hield, Kuminga, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody, De’Anthony Melton — with various strengths, plus Post and Trayce Jackson-Davis to offer different looks as bigs off the bench. As Pelton notes about his projections, the Warriors “have 11 players who rate better than league average, tied with the Thunder for most of any team.”
The rest of the West
Ultimately, the Warriors’ greatest problem might not be anything about their roster specifically, but rather the context around them: The top of the West is much better than it was in 2022, when Golden State beat the injury-ravaged Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks en route to the Finals.
But even with that change, there are still major concerns for every team in the conference behind Oklahoma City and Denver. Fred VanVleet’s ACL tear should lower Houston’s ceiling, perhaps by a considerable amount. Minnesota is relying on a number of rapidly aging veterans (38-year-old Mike Conley and 33-year-old Rudy Gobert) and unproven youngsters (Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr.) to support Anthony Edwards. The Lakers have a thin rotation and a potentially disastrous defense, and they’re already dealing with a LeBron James injury. The Clippers face the same age questions as the Warriors, plus the possible ramifications of the Kawhi Leonard/Aspiration investigation.
Even the Thunder, who don’t even have any minor concerns, let alone major ones, could struggle to dispatch Golden State in a potential playoff matchup. The Warriors have consistently played this version of the Thunder tough. Over the last two seasons, Golden State is 3-4 against Oklahoma City; two of those losses came in overtime, and Curry didn’t play in the other two. Butler wasn’t on the roster for any of those contests.
The Warriors wouldn’t ever be favored to knock off the Thunder, of course, and they would need to navigate a minefield — one of talented competition and their own age hurdles — to get the chance. But it’s not an entirely unrealistic proposition, and at this stage in their competitive timeline, a chance is all the Warriors can ask for.
With James Wiseman gone and Kuminga halfway out the door, the Warriors’ “two timelines” plan has been scuttled. It’s all about the present timeline now, and maximizing Curry’s remaining opportunities to add to his trophy case.
Discover more from 6up.net
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.