What’s up with Oilers’ lack of early-season offence?

EDMONTON — In hockey, the end tends to justify the means.

When you win a 3-2 game in overtime — as the Edmonton Oilers did to close out a 2-3 road trip Tuesday night in Ottawa — fans find the positives.

The goaltending was good, the defensive posture strong. As always, “A great defensive effort,†is never that far from “Where the heck did all the goals go?â€

That perfectly describes an Oilers team that was no better offensively in that 3-2 overtime win over the Senators than it was in losses to New Jersey (5-3), the Islanders (4-2) or Detroit (4-2). Their offence has been dry, with almost nothing coming off the rush — something that has always been a trademark of this team.

So, whatâ€s up with a club that has averaged 3.33 goals per game (ranked sixth in the NHL) over the past three seasons, but seven games into this campaign is generating chances near a league-average level?

As Sam Roberts sang, “Where have all the good people gone?â€

Letâ€s start with the team numbers (courtesy Sportlogiq):

• Goals for: 2.57 (Ranked 26th in the NHL)

• Expected Goals: 3.21 (12th)

• Shot attempts per game: 53.6 (24th)

• Shots on net: 29.7 (15th)

• Slot shots: 12.6 (24th)

• Inner slot shots: 6.9 (16th)

• OZ possession time: 7:52 (2nd)

• Rush chances: 4.9 (31st)

• Rebound chances: 1.6 (23rd)

• High-Danger chances: 15.1 (13th)

What we see here are underlying numbers that suggest the Oilers should/will be scoring more. They have the puck in the offensive zone more than 30 other teams, and even without Zach Hyman, their roster houses enough talent to generate more goals than have gone in thus far.

The rebound chances speak of a team that could certainly shoot more, as does the fact 23 other teams get more shots on net than Edmonton does. Jake Walmanâ€s clapper from the high slot that beat Ottawa in overtime is an example that youâ€ve got to give the other goalie a chance to miss one now and again, as Linus Ullmark did on that tricky shot.

Of their seven games played, the Oilers have scored just twice in regulation four times. In a fifth game, Curtis Lazar scored a meaningless goals with three seconds left in a 5-3 loss. Thatâ€s five of seven (essentially) scoring two goals a game.

At five-on-five, the Oilers rank 28th with nine goals in seven games.

Individually, there is no question that the big boys†collective slow start — weâ€re talking Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard — has skewed the numbers substantially.

“Weâ€re just not scoring enough,†Draisaitl said after the loss in Detroit. “Itâ€s me — Iâ€m certainly not feeling it right now. The game changes when your top guys are feeling it, seeing it, and creating offence. It changes the entire dynamic of the group.

“Just have to take a look in the mirror, and figure something out to be better.â€

We get it: Only one NHL team has played more playoff games over the past five years than Edmonton (Florida), and back-to-back trips to the Cup is not only hard on the body, it presents a mental challenge on an October night on Long Island.

“Certainly, weâ€ve played a lot of hockey the last three, four years. Not a lot of break, not a lot of rest time,†Draisaitl said. “There comes a time when maybe it catches up to you a little bit. But, thereâ€s another team that went through the same thing. Weâ€ve got to find a way to push through it.

“Just take a look in the mirror and be better.â€

McDavid leads the NHL in offensive zone possession time per game, yet the Oilers captain is off to the slowest goal-scoring start in his career, finally potting one on the power play in game No. 7. McDavid hasnâ€t scored at even strength yet this season, and has a pedestrian four even-strength points thus far.

Between them, McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard have one even-strength goal (six ES points) in 21 man games played this season. They are the head of the snake in Edmonton, we would all agree. As they go, so does the team.

In a conversation we had in early September, McDavid vowed to shoot more this season and hoped to move on from 2024-25, when he endured his least productive season in the past five.

“I’ve had a lot of very good years, and I wouldn’t categorize last season as one of those,†he said of a 100-point season in 67 games. “I want to prove that scoring 50 or 60 is not a one-off.

“I’ve had 50 goals, and I’ve had 100 assists. I like the goals a little bit more.â€

Heading into the Ottawa game, McDavid led the NHL in slot passes, which you can interpret either way. Either heâ€s creating a lot down low, or heâ€s passing off too often, rather than shooting.

Itâ€s still early, and a 3-3-1 record is no catastrophe. But the schedule right now is wicked, with an eight-game run that features games in three time zones and only one game in Edmonton.

Surviving the first half of a season that sees the Oilers play all their Eastern games before Christmas will be key, so theyâ€re still in sight of the lead in the Pacific when the schedule eases off in the New Year.

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