Earlier this year, there was plenty of chatter throughout the baseball world about the idea of the Pirates trading Paul Skenes.
Some believed that trading the best pitcher in the game with four years of control remaining beyond 2025 was unhinged. Others thought the haul that Pittsburgh could command would jump-start a club that has seemingly been spinning its wheels for most of the past decade.
Skenes is still a Pirate, and thereâ€s no indication that will change any time soon. But what if the second-best starting pitcher in the game became available?
That scenario appears to be more realistic.
Tarik Skubal will be entering his final year prior to free agency, leaving the Tigers in a quandary. After winning the American League Central and advancing to the AL Division Series for a second consecutive season, Detroit is a team on the rise. Trading Skubal would certainly have a negative impact on the Tigers in 2026. But given the type of contract the ace is expected to seek next offseason, president of baseball operations Scott Harris must consider whether he believes he can meet that price to keep Skubal in Detroit, or whether trading the pitcher now for a haul of players/prospects is a better long-term play for the club.
“I imagine theyâ€ll consider it, if the bidding gets high enough,†said one AL executive. “Iâ€m not sure if theyâ€ll have the guts to do it.â€
Skubal, who turns 29 on Nov. 20, showed signs of a breakout in 2023 after returning from left flexor tendon surgery, going 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts. He established himself as an ace in â€24, going 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA, earning the AL Cy Young Award in a unanimous vote.
His dominance continued in 2025, when he went 13-6 with a 2.21 ERA, setting career highs in innings (195 1/3) and strikeouts (241) – a year that will likely result in Skubal becoming the first back-to-back AL Cy Young winner since Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000 (Jacob deGrom won in consecutive years in the National League, 2018-19).
What type of trade package would it take to land Skubal from the Tigers? Recent history can serve as a guide for those teams considering such a move.
“Pitchers of this caliber rarely become available on a short-term commitment,†an NL executive said. “There will be no shortage of suitors if Detroit makes Skubal available.â€
The Corbin Burnes trade from February 2024 is the most apples-to-apples example, as the Brewers dealt the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner to the Orioles one year prior to free agency. Milwaukee received left-hander DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz, a pair of Top 100 prospects, along with a Competitive Balance Round A Draft pick (No. 34 overall).
Three executives cited the Burnes trade as a strong comp, though all of them believe the Tigers will be able to extract more for Skubal.
“The baseline is somewhere north of what Milwaukee received for Corbin Burnes,†an NL executive said. “How far north of that is anyoneâ€s guess.â€
“It would have to be two or three Top 100 type guys,†an AL executive said. “Skubal is at another level from Burnes, but that return is a good floor.â€
Last yearâ€s deal that saw Garrett Crochet traded from the White Sox to the Red Sox included two Top 100 prospects (catcher Kyle Teel and outfielder Braden Montgomery), as well as two other highly ranked Red Sox prospects (infielder Chase Meidroth and right-hander Wikelman González), though Crochet had two seasons of control remaining at the time of the deal.
“Crochet had two years left, but that is probably a reasonable market,†an AL executive said.
Three prominent hitters entering their contract season have also been moved in recent years: Mookie Betts (February 2020), Juan Soto (December â€23) and Kyle Tucker (December â€24).
The Dodgers gave up their No. 1 prospect (outfielder Alex Verdugo), No. 3 prospect (shortstop Jeter Downs) and No. 28 prospect (catcher Connor Wong) for Betts, who was set to earn $27 million that season. Five months after the trade, Betts signed a 12-year, $365 million extension with Los Angeles.
“The Betts return was underwhelming, especially in hindsight,†an AL executive said. “He was also earning so much more money, which limited the market.â€
Soto, who had already been traded from the Nationals to the Padres at the 2022 Trade Deadline, was dealt again after the â€23 season, one year before he was to hit the open market.
To acquire Soto and Trent Grisham, the Yankees gave up catcher Kyle Higashioka and right-handers Michael King, Jhony Brito, Drew Thorpe (a Top 100 prospect) and Randy Vásquez (ranked as the Yankees†No. 13 prospect). Soto had a monster season in New York, hitting a then-career-high 41 home runs with a .989 OPS, finishing third in AL MVP voting while helping the Yankees to their first AL pennant in 15 years.
Sotoâ€s stay in the Bronx was short, however. The four-time All-Star signed a 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets after the season, moving across town for the biggest contract in baseball history.
The Cubs sent infielder Isaac Paredes, righty Hayden Wesneski and third baseman Cam Smith (MLB Pipelineâ€s No. 73 overall prospect) to the Astros for one year of Tuckerâ€s services – the latest in a recent string of trades involving star players entering their final year of club control.
Tucker made his fourth straight All-Star team, hitting 22 home runs with 73 RBIs and an .841 OPS in 136 games for Chicago. The Cubs beat the Padres in the NL Wild Card Series, then fell to the rival Brewers in a five-game NLDS, as Tucker slashed .259/.375/.370 with one home run and one RBI in the eight postseason games.
Tucker will be the No. 1 free agent this offseason, and the consensus within the industry is that the Cubs wonâ€t be the team to give him the type of contract he is seeking, meaning Tucker would be one-and-done in Chicago despite the players the Cubs parted with to acquire him.
One question that potential Skubal suitors will have to ask themselves is simple: Is it worth giving up a haul for one year of a player, even one as talented as Skubal?
“Each deal must be evaluated on its own merits, but if an acquisition of a short-term commitment helps your club reach the postseason, then itâ€s certainly worth it,†an NL executive said. “Flags fly forever.â€
“I think they can make sense for win-now teams,†an AL executive said. “The prices havenâ€t been as bad as Deadline deals.â€
With those previous trades as a roadmap for a potential Skubal deal, which teams might try to pry the ace away from the Tigers this winter?
The Mets should top the list of prospective suitors, especially after missing the postseason in 2025. President of baseball operations David Stearns has shied away from paying big free-agent prices for pitching, but the Mets and owner Steve Cohen figure to be aggressive this winter – and nothing would be bigger than trading for Skubal.
New York has plenty of young pitching to offer Detroit – Brandon Sproat and/or Jonah Tong, for example – while outfielder Carson Benge and infielder/outfielder Jett Williams could also interest the Tigers. All four of those players are in MLB Pipelineâ€s Top 100, and while giving up three (or four?) players like that might be a huge cost, the Mets have the money to sign Skubal long term and keep him in New York.
The Red Sox made a big move last year by acquiring Crochet, but imagine pairing Skubal with him atop the rotation in 2026? Boston has a pair of Top 100 pitchers (lefty Payton Tolle and righty Kyson Witherspoon) as well as two position players (shortstop Franklin Arias and outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia) on that list, giving the Sox a good foundation from which to build a package for Skubal.
Three other contending teams – the Dodgers, Phillies and Padres – should never be counted out of situations like this one, as their front offices have a history of making big moves.
A Dodgers deal would potentially have to include outfielder Josue De Paula, Los Angeles†No. 1 prospect and the No. 13 prospect in baseball. The Dodgers have seven players currently on MLB Pipelineâ€s Top 100 list – not to mention an inexpensive, budding star in Roki Sasaki – giving president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman a number of chips to use in a deal if he chooses to make his pitching-rich club even richer.
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has long considered top prospect Andrew Painter – who some have compared to a young Justin Verlander – to be untouchable, but Philadelphiaâ€s aging roster makes 2026 a crucial season before its current window of contention begins to close. Dombrowski has two other Top 100 prospects (shortstop Aidan Miller and outfielder Justin Crawford) who could interest Detroit.
After making a flurry of moves at the Trade Deadline, San Diego has only two players on the current Top 100 list (No. 77 catcher Ethan Salas and No. 95 lefty Kruz Schoolcraft), but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is one of the most creative executives out there. Never count him out if he sets his mind on something, and given that both Michael King and Dylan Cease are free agents this offseason, the Padres will have to address their rotation in some form or fashion. Adding Skubal would certainly be one way to approach that.
Other teams will invariably throw their hats in the ring if Skubal is made available, but for the Tigers to move him, they will have to get back a package that not only helps the future, but allows the 2026 club to take aim at its third straight postseason berth.
“I bet they will have to add Major League players elsewhere to consider it,†an AL executive said. “They will need to demonstrate they improved the club overall.â€
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