There is perhaps no better way to improve a ballclub during the offseason than by signing a quality starting pitcher.
The baseball world was reminded of that again with Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s heroics in Games 6 and 7 of the World Series.
Even with innings totals trending down, the starting pitcher remains the sport’s nightly protagonist who typically plays an oversized role in determining wins and losses. And in the postseason, when the best arms take on a greater share of workload, they become even more important.
“I believe in elite arms being key to playoff rotations,” one longtime scout told MLB. “Itâ€s rare for pennant winners to lack tip-top pedigree arms. You do not win titles with a bunch of seventh rounders that you coached up. You can win the regular season with them, but not titles.â€
While there is perhaps not a peak-of-his-powers, future Hall of Famer on the market, there are excellent options within a relatively flat top tier. But without a clear-cut ordering, it makes choosing wisely particularly important for hopeful contenders.
How to rank the top of this flat class? Ask five different execs and you might get five different rankings. I surveyed a number of evaluators, and dug into the numbers, to order the top of this class based on their consensus.
While there was no consensus for the No. 1 spot among those surveyed, Cease enjoyed plenty of support.
Cease is productive, consistent and durable. He’s also two years younger than Framber Valdez, another candidate for the top spot. The righty is entering his age-30 season.
“Cease and Framber are incredibly durable and have real weapons,” said one general manager. “When you make 33 starts a year, itâ€s not just the innings you pitch but itâ€s the innings that your eighth and ninth starting pitcher donâ€t have to pitch.”
Cease has posted consecutive seasons of 4.5 fWAR, 4.4, 3.6, 4.7 and 3.4 since 2021, logging at least 165 innings pitched in each those seasons.
He’s also struck out at least 200 batters in all five of those seasons, which places him in select company.
The other active pitchers to match such a streak?
Clayton Kershaw: 2010–2015 (six seasons)
Chris Sale: 2013–2019 (seven seasons)
Max Scherzer: 2012–2019 (eight seasons)
Justin Verlander: 2009–2013 (five seasons)
Cease shows no signs of degrading stuff in posting his best full-season fastball velocity (97.1 mph) in 2025.
If he could reduce his walk rate to pair with his elite strikeout rate (29.8% strikeout rate last season and 28.6% for his career), he could reach an even greater level. Of course, that’s the blemish that most evaluators doubt can improve. Cease owns a 10% walk rate for his career.
He owns another path to more ceiling, too, if he could develop a third offering.
One scout notes a number of pitchers have added splitters and split-changeups in recent years due to modern pitch design magic, and Cease could be a candidate.
“Even if Cease never develops [an offspeed pitch], I have seen him since he was a high school junior and believe in the human,” the scout said.
Splitter or not, Cease is excellent.
While there are no sure things, Valdez allows a club a sense of certainty.
He’s produced the following fWAR totals since 2022: 4.4, 4.4, 3.7 and 4.0. He’s also tossed at least 176 innings in each of those seasons.
Since 2021, the lefty ranks fifth in the Majors in innings pitched (902 1/3), ninth in fWAR (18.3) and 18th in ERA (3.20) among arms to reach 400 innings.
He’s been an All-Star twice, finished in the top 10 of Cy Young voting three times and owns a World Series ring.
While he’s entering his age-32 season, he’s shown no signs of slowing.
His K-BB% of last season (14.8) was in line with his career average (14.8). His 108 Stuff+ score last season was the highest mark of his career in a full season.
Said one NL scout of his ranking Valdez at No. 1: “Spreadsheet scouting will like Cease more. One wears championship rings.”
Said a longtime AL scout: “I have Valdez as the top starter because of his playoff pedigree, durability and stuff quality.”
Like Cease, Valdez is durable and productive. Even their 2026 Steamer projections are similar:
Valdez: 3.47 ERA, 3.7 WAR, 188 innings
Cease: 3.61 ERA, 3.7 WAR, 185 innings
They get to their production in different ways.
Valdez rarely allows a walk or a fly ball. An extreme ground-ball pitcher, his 62% ground-ball mark since 2021 ranks fourth among qualified arms. He leads baseball in double plays generated since 2021.
There’s also a case that Valdez might have upside in simply moving to a different environment.
The Crawford Boxes at Daikin Park are not often kind to lefties. Valdez owns a 14.9% HR/FB rate for his career, above the 12% MLB average. Moreover, Houston’s defense regressed to the middle of the pack in recent years, totaling -33 defensive runs saved since 2023.
Said one AL GM: “You put Valdez with something like the Cubs defense and he might never give up a run.”
No. 3: Tatsuya Imai, RHP
2026 seasonal age: 28
“After that itâ€s a big drop to the next group,” said an AL executive. “The rest of the class does not have the stuff or durability to hang with the first three guys.”
Imai is coming off a season in which he recorded a 1.92 ERA over 163 2/3 innings, striking out 178 for the Seibu Lions. Even with offense down in NPB, it was still impressive.
He possesses a wide arsenal that includes a slider, changeup and splitter. His fastball can touch 99 mph. Some believe his splitter can take a leap forward.
Aside from a left ankle injury in 2022, he’s enjoyed excellent health, reaching at least 158 innings in three straight seasons.
Suárez’s deep arsenal — tossing five pitches at double-digit rates — and elite strike throwing (5.8% walk rate in 2025) intrigues clubs.
“Ranger is probably my favorite of the bunch with his strike percentage and super diverse arsenal,” said one club’s analyst.
Said another: “Is it crazy to think Suárez is No. 1?”
Steamer likes Suárez more than some of the names above him, too, forecasting a 3.55 ERA, 3.3 fWAR and 169 innings.
“Suárez has great command and deception,” said one GM. “I do worry about the number of IL trips heâ€s made [six], which is why heâ€s behind the front three for me.”
For some, King’s upside makes him a top three option, but the profile contains risk as his 2025 season was derailed by a nerve issue in his shoulder.
Said one GM: “King probably wonâ€t post like the other guys but heâ€s unique, and in a good stretch can pitch like them.”
His return was uneven in September, though his velocity was there. Since 2023, King is tied with Cease for 21st in the Majors with a K-BB% mark of 19.3%.
Said one analyst: “The health is concerning but also could see him with the most contract value because of it.”
Added another scout: “I go King third because of the peak of his stuff, deception and physicality. Also, his toughness, and contempt for hitters.”
A number of other names garnered support, too, including Zac Gallen, Shota Imanaga and Zach Eflin. It speaks to the talent — and flatness — of the top FA tier, which will help make for a fascinating Hot Stove season.
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