Image credit:
Alex Bregman (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
Our coverage of MLBâ€s free agent season continues with a deep dive on the best third basemen available this year.
Below is a data-driven approach to ranking the available 3B options, leveraging data from FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant and Baseball Reference. Where applicable, weâ€ve left out players that are likely to have their club options picked up. Should that change, this list will be updated to reflect the new market reality.
1. Alex Bregman
Projected Contract: 6 Years, $180M

Bregman’s career max exit velocity is 109.6 mph, which he posted this past season. He’s the template for how to succeed as a baseball player with below-average raw power. It’s simple really. You just have to be elite at everything else:

Bregman’s plus-plus plate discipline and contact skills are easy to spot. The more nuanced aspects to his offensive profile are his launch angles and, more specifically, his average fly ball exit velocity. At 90.5 mph, Bregman effectively has 55/60-grade game power, despite a 40/45 raw power tool. That’s the recipe for being a hitter who connects for 20 to 25 home runs a year, gets on base a lot and hits for a good average. He should continue to play a valuable defensive position while producing 20% more than the average hitter on offense.
2. Munetaka Murakami
Projected Contract: 7 Years, $140M
Per FanGraphs, since 2019 in NPB, the highest ISOs posted by any hitter are .392 and .390—both by Murakami. The next closest is Seiya Suzuki at .322, which is a full 70 points behind Murakami. Murakami also has the two highest single-season wRC+ marks, including his historic 2022 season.
All that being said, there are real concerns about his zone contact rate, as well as questions about how well he’ll adjust to major league velocity. This may lead to some teams shying away from Murakami. Other teams will look to his youth and power and see a player who is likely to hit 30 homers a season. The range of outcomes is quite large, but the upside is enormous.
3. Eugenio Suarez
Projected Contract: 3 Years, $75M

Depending on which version of WAR you look at, Suarez was worth somewhere between 2.6 and 3.8 wins. Suarez accomplishes this with the simple formula of hitting the ball in the air and hitting it hard:

Suarez is extremely aggressive, which limits his on-base skills. However, with an average launch angle of 22 degrees and better contact on fly balls, you get a player who is a lock to hit 30 homers a year. His contact rates are solid enough that he can keep his strikeout rate under 30%. His low batting averages are more due to a high EV/low BABIP that is optimized for home runs, not singles.
4. Kazuma Okamoto
Projected Contract: 5 Years, $85M
Okamoto’s 210 wRC+ this season was the third-highest in NPB since 2019, right behind Murakami. His numbers are quite similar to Masataka Yoshida’s, which projects him to be somewhere between an average major league bat and 15% better than average. The question then becomes how much value does he bring on the other side of the ball?
5. Yoan Moncada
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $15M

Moncada can’t stay healthy enough for a team to invest in him long term. His skills remain easily above average, with good plate discipline, at least 60-grade raw power (probably 55 game power) and 45-grade contact skills.
That all combines to create an above-average hitter when Moncada is actually on the field. He’ll likely sign a one-year deal somewhere, where he’ll provide a boost whenever he’s active.
Discover more from 6up.net
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.