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Framber Valdez (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images)
Our coverage of MLB’s free agent season continues with a deep dive on the best starting pitchers available this year.
Below is a data-driven approach to ranking the available SP options, leveraging data from FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant and Baseball Reference. Where applicable, we’ve left out players that are likely to have their club options picked up. Should that change, this list will be updated to reflect the new market reality.
1. Framber Valdez, LHP
Projected Contract:7 years, $220M
Last year, there were three major free agent starting pitchers signed: Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried. Here’s how they fared last year contract-wise, per Spotrac:
NameApril 1 AgeContractMax Fried31.28 yrs / $218MCorbin Burnes30.46 yrs / $210MBlake Snell32.35 yrs / $182M
Valdez is similar in age to Snell, but in terms of rock-solid production and consistency, he is probably more similar in stature to Burnes. As the premier free agent starter in the class, we think he’ll top Fried’s $218M.
There are numerous factors that make Valdez compelling. He’s a model of consistency, making an average of 30 starts and throwing 192 innings with a 3.21 ERA over the last four seasons. His ERA has ranged between 2.82 to 3.66 with eight complete games. He’s as much of a workhorse starter as can be expected in today’s game.
His excellence goes deeper than just the surface stats, especially in the context of signing a long-term contract. Valdez’s pitch quality is mostly reliant on movement, especially seam-shifted wake movement. His sinker gets about eight inches of extra depth from the seams, while his changeup gets almost 10 inches of extra drop. His curveball gets a ton of depth and movement, making it difficult for batters to lift. This makes his three-pitch combo extremely effective at limiting launch angles:
yearSinker LAUNCH ANGLEChangeup LAUNCH ANGLECurveball LAUNCH ANGLE20251.90.54.820242.1-7.52.220234.70.20.62022-6.0-9.43.32021-8.9-0.20.3
Per FanGraphs, Valdez’s sinker has been 46.1 runs better than an average pitch over the last three seasons for an incredible 1.2 runs prevented per 100 sinkers thrown. It’s a contact management weapon producing a ton of ground balls. Valdez also possesses a deathball slider, which is another weapon, but he rarely uses it, as he has three plus pitches already.
The quality of Valdez’s pitch shapes eases concerns as to how his velocity will hold up in the latter years of his contract. Logan Webb averages 92-93 mph on his sinker, and it is one of the best pitches in the game. Valdez could lose a tick or two of velo through the course of his contract and still be a top-level starter.
2. Dylan Cease, RHP
Projected Contract: 5 years, $160M
Cease has struck out at least 214 batters in each of his last five seasons. He’s also made at least 32 starts in each of those years, making him a model of consistency if we were to look at him through a fielding independent lens.
If we value Cease based on his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which looks at strikeouts, walks and home runs, he’d likely be the clear-cut top pitcher in the class given his age and prolific strikeout pedigree. Since 2021, Cease’s FIP has ranged between 3.10 and 3.72. That’s an incredible run of consistency, with his five-year average of 3.37 about 0.35 below his actual ERA of 3.72.
On the flip side, two out of Cease’s last three seasons have netted him ERAs north of 4.55—not exactly the kind of production that makes a team eager to plunk down a hefty contract.
The root of Cease’s issues stems from being primarily a two-pitch pitcher. While he’s shown other pitches outside of his fastball-slider pair, his usage of the combo has hovered around 90% the past couple of seasons. On days when he just doesn’t have one of the two pitches working for him, it can lead to some very difficult games.
Teams that will target Cease will be in one of two camps. Either they believe that over the long run of his contract his actual on-field performance will track with his ERA estimators, which would make him a four win player. Or they will believe they can fully unlock Cease, helping him hone in on a third and fourth pitch that fits well into his arsenal.
Cease’s third pitch, his curveball, has been a terrible pitch for him performance-wise at 0.91 runs/100 pitches worse than average, per FanGraphs. Stuff models don’t particularly like the pitch either, grading it as below average. A team that has confidence in their ability to work with Cease to tweak this pitch will have him valued a lot higher than other teams.
3. Shane Bieber, RHP
Projected Contract:5 years, $150M
There’s an argument to be made that Bieber is the best available starting pitcher in this year’s class. He doesn’t possess the top-shelf stuff quality of Valdez and Cease, but his on-field performance has perhaps more upside than either.
The key metric for Bieber is fastball velocity. During the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Bieber’s velocity dipped to 91.3 mph, and his strikeout rate plummeted. Coming back from surgery this season, Bieber proved that his velocity was almost all the way back to where it was when he started his career, averaging 92.6 mph. With a full, healthy offseason, he very likely could look like the pitcher he was in 2019-2021—a dominant strikeout artist and Cy Young Award winner.
That’s the optimistic scenario in which Bieber fully recaptures his velocity and challenges for Cy Youngs. In the pessimistic scenario, in which Bieber’s velocity returns to 2022-2023 levels, you get a pitcher with 3.25 ERA, which is right in line with his career ERA of 3.24—better than either of the two pitchers listed before him.
Bieber likely won’t get the biggest contract this offseason, but his combination of floor and ceiling is unmatched in this free agent class.
4. Michael King, RHP
Projected Contract:4 years / $110M
King has tremendous stuff and a brilliant performance track record, but there is one thing he hasn’t quite proven he can do: be a workhorse starter over multiple seasons. He’s had one complete season as a starter and couldn’t stay healthy this year.
This makes King an extremely difficult player to project going forward. If he’s healthy, he’s right up there with anyone. But he ended the season with a notable dropoff in stuff quality, per FanGraphs. Despite that, there’s likely a couple of teams that will gamble on King hoping he’ll give them a few healthy seasons.
5. Ranger Suarez, LHP
Projected Contract:3 Years, $75M
There is no question that throwing harder is better, but you don’t have to throw really hard to be a very successful major league pitcher. Suarez’s sinker velocity dropped to a career low 90.1 mph this season. The result? Arguably the best year of his career. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2022, Suarez has been a model of consistency, with a 3.59 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 3.67 xFIP and a 3.95 SIERA. This is not a small sample illusion either, as Suarez has thrown 588 innings over that time.
The long-term concern is how much velocity can Suarez bleed and still be an effective starter? There’s no question he’ll be quite effective even at his current velocity, but very few pitchers can compete when their primary pitch dips below 90 mph.
6. Brandon Woodruff, RHP
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $27.5M
If we could successfully petition the baseball gods to turn injuries off, Woodruff would be at the very top of this list. Since he became a full-time starter in 2019, Woodruff’s 2.96 ERA is the fifth-best among starting pitchers in baseball. He’s 11th by FIP, 15th by xFIP and 10th by SIERA. No matter how you slice it, when Woodruff has been on the mound, he’s been one of the very best starters in the league.
However, Woodruff has never thrown 180 innings in a season and really struggled to stay healthy this year after missing all of 2024 with a shoulder injury. Tyler Glasnow had never thrown more than 120 innings in a season, yet the Dodgers gave him five years and $136 million. Woodruff may want to bet on himself and sign a one-year deal in hopes he can pull a Blake Snell and come out on the other side with a huge contract.
7. Zac Gallen, RHP
Projected Contract:2 Years, $45M
Gallen’s K% has declined every year since he debuted in 2019, and he enters free agency after enduring the worst season of his career. Gallen has now accumulated over 1,000 career innings with a very good 3.58 ERA (numbers include his 2025 season). How much credence do you give to the 800 or so innings prior to this year compared to what he showed this season?
Gallen has never been one to light up stuff models, which makes projecting him even more confounding. He didn’t have a noticeable dropoff in stuff quality between 2024 and 2025, nor did he lose velocity. On the other hand, every single performance indicator was substantially worse.
Teams that believe they can optimize a pitcher will likely be more bullish on Gallen’s prospects. This could set him up for a two-year deal with a player option in the second year, giving him the opportunity to re-establish his long-term value.
8. Jack Flaherty, RHP
Projected Contract:3 Years, $72M
On the surface, Flaherty’s 2025 looks like a disappointing season, as his ERA regressed back into the mid 4s. However, outside of Baseball Prospectus’ DRA, Flaherty looked very much like the same pitcher he was in 2024. He threw 160-plus innings for the second consecutive season, and maintained a healthy strikeout rate of 27.6%, but he did see his walk rate spike a little. Flaherty’s stuff numbers were also very similar to 2024, suggesting that he’s probably closer to a 3.90 ERA-type of pitcher if we combine the past two seasons.
These types of free agent signings—similar to Nick Pivetta, Nate Eovaldi and Yusei Kikuchi—can often accrue tremendous value for their clubs. Flaherty is still quite young for a free agent, and he offers a blend of upside and floor that teams can bank on.
9. Lucas Giolito, RHP
Projected Contract:3 Years, $65M
Giolito’s 3.41 ERA this season was better than his underlying metrics, as his strikeout rate dipped below 20%, and his walk rate remained around his career average. The majority of ERA estimators think he was extremely lucky, ranging from 0.7 runs (FIP) to 1.8 runs (DRA).
This potentially undersells Giolito, depending how you value his early-career dominance:
yearipKERASIERA2019176.22283.413.57202072.1973.483.512021178.22013.533.722022161.21774.903.792023184.12044.884.2120251451213.414.65
That’s four out of six seasons with a very good ERA and a long track record of strikeouts. While the dip in strikeouts and stuff quality is somewhat concerning, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Giolito turns in another few seasons with a mid threes ERA and plenty of innings.
10. Dustin May, RHP
Projected Contract:1 Year, $15M
May is the youngest player on this list and is also probably the biggest wildcard. He finally put together a full season, throwing 132 innings, but his stuff was diminished and he looks like a shadow of his former self. Therein lies the conundrum with May: Will he ever be able to get back to the pitcher he was before he had a series of injuries? Neither the Dodgers nor the Red Sox were able to help him. That’s two teams generally regarded as good pitching development teams.
The Red Sox upped his usage of the cutter and reduced his reliance on the sweeper (33.4% compared to 41.1% with the Dodgers), but this didn’t make him a more effective pitcher.
It’s quite possible that, with a healthy offseason, May can rebuild the strength and explosiveness needed to throw in the upper 90s again. He very clearly needs to be throwing 97-98 to be successful, and he has a long track record of being able to throw that hard. He’ll either sign with a team early because they want to get him in their player dev system right away, or he’ll build himself up and try to sign after he can show some exciting bullpens.
It wasn’t too long ago that May was one of the most electric young arms in the majors. If he finds that magic again, he might top this list next year. Failing that, he might be a great option as a high-leverage arm closing out games.
11. Chris Bassitt, RHP
Projected Contract:2 Years, $40M
Bassitt has been one of the most reliable arms in baseball, routinely posting ERAs below four and pitching over 720 innings across the last four years. He’s become much more reliant on his sinker, and he lost a tick of velocity this past season. If he were younger, he’d be much higher on this list. Given his age and declining velocity, he likely has, at most, another one or two years of solid production. If he’s your fourth or fifth starter next year, you’re probably pretty happy about it.
12. Merrill Kelly, RHP
Projected Contract:2 Years, $40M
To fully appreciate Merrill Kelly, we need to look at a movement chart:
Kelly throws five pitches within a 5-6 mph velocity band, including the fastball triangle of four-seam, cutter and sinker. This makes it very difficult for batters to have confidence in what they are seeing. How long he can keep it going with 90-91 mph velocity is the question. As such, you could flip him with Bassitt on our list.
13. Tyler Mahle, RHP
Projected Contract:2 Years, $28M
After struggling for years with giving up home runs, Mahle had a phenomenal year this season, mostly by lowering his HR/9 rate to 0.52—much lower than his career 1.27 per nine innings. This makes his FIP of 3.37 look great, but his other estimators paint a much more pedestrian picture. If he can regain his early-career stuff, he could be a tremendous bargain. If not, he’ll be a good option at the back of almost any rotation.
14. Zack Littell, RHP
Projected Contract:3 Years, $45M
Littell continues to perform, no matter what the ERA estimators say. He doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, but he also doesn’t hurt himself with walks. He also does not light up public stuff models with any of his pitches. All that said, what matters at the end of the day is the on-field performance. Even if he regresses to his peripherals, he’s still a solid back-of-the-rotation option that will give you a lot of innings.
15. Justin Verlander, RHP
Projected Contract:1 Year, $15M
Verlander is the prime example of how important velocity is to career longevity. He’ll be entering his age-43 season and looks likely to post another solid season, should he choose to continue pitching.
Per Stuff+ on FanGraphs, Verlander still has three plus pitches in his slider, curveball and changeup. StuffPro from Baseball Prosepctus concurs, though their DRA metric is decidedly pessimistic.
Given his long track record and present plus stuff, there’s every indication he’ll still be able to perform at the major league level. If he pitches three more complete seasons, he has a chance to crack 4,000 career strikeouts. I’m rooting for that outcome.
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