Rebuild or retool? Itâ€s the most common question asked about NHL teams on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.
Thereâ€s evidence that both approaches could work, but the recent trend of the NHL suggests that rebuilding is the path to take over a less-aggressive retool.
Team depth, defense and goaltending play critical roles in winning a Stanley Cup, but superstars are needed and are almost virtually the reason why teams win.
Some may look at the Florida Panthers as a recent example that depth matters more, but GM Bill Zito found a way to have an abundance of depth around his two superstars, Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk. Without the timely plays and consistency from that duo throughout the past three seasons, the Panthers donâ€t win the Cup.
The strongest current piece of evidence that tanking works is examining the NHLâ€s current point leaders.
Out of the top 33 scorers in the NHL with at least 18 points, 28 of them were first-round picks.
Of those first-rounders, 18 of those players were selected in the top 10, including 11 in the top three and seven first overall picks.
The usual suspects – Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Jack Eichel – are high in these rankings. Each player has been to the Stanley Cup final at least once, and three have won the Cup, providing the first piece of evidence that tanking has worked for these teams.
But to further prove it, four of the top six scorers – MacKinnon, Macklin Celebrini, Connor Bedard and Connor McDavid – were first overall picks. Leo Carlsson, who’s tied for second in scoring, was drafted second overall, and William Nylander, who’s tied for fifth, was selected eighth overall.
For a table of the top 33 scorers, click
here.
The emergence of Carlsson has come quicker than some may have expected, but the talent was always apparent. With 11 goals and 26 points in 16 games, he has the Anaheim Ducks in first place in the Pacific Division with an 11-4-1 record.
The Ducks†rebuild appears to be complete as many of their top prospects are not only featuring in their lineup but are playing critical roles. It took patience, but now with a No. 1 center in Carlsson, a No. 1 defenseman in Jackson LaCombe, a No. 1 goaltender in Lukas Dostal and top-end talent surrounding them, such as Cutter Gauthier, Troy Terry, Mason McTavish and Beckett Sennecke, the Ducks look poised to be a perennial contender for years to come.
Celebrini and Bedard sit in second and fourth in the NHL points leaderboard, respectively, and theyâ€ve turned around their franchises.
Coming into the season, the expectations of the Chicago Blackhawks and the San Jose Sharks were very low. Many thought they would be in the race for another top-three pick, but the two young phenoms had other ideas.
Bedard, 20, is carrying the Blackhawks’ offense despite the roster still being below average in terms of talent. With nine goals and 25 points in 16 games, Bedard has 11 more points than the next closest player, and the Blackhawks sit in fourth place in the Central Division.
The Blackhawks had some luck landing Bedard, moving up two spots in the draft lottery, but following the selection, theyâ€ve built their defense corps from the ground up and have continued to add high-end prospects, such as Anton Frondell, Oliver Moore, Sacha Boisvert and more. They arenâ€t as far along as the Ducks, but the future is very exciting in the Windy City.
Celebrini, too, has his organization looking like a competitive team.
The Sharks are a very young team, headlined by Celebrini, Will Smith, William Eklund, Michael Misa, and Sam Dickinson, but they are becoming a harder team to beat. On most nights, they are outshot, but the high-end talent they possess creates numerous high-danger chances that they are skilled enough to finish consistently.
There are 20 first overall picks currently playing in the NHL, and seven of them rank in the top 33 in points. Some notable omissions who could easily join that group are Auston Matthews, who ranks just outside the top 50 after a slow start to the season, and Nico Hischier, who is playing like the Selke Trophy winner he is, allowing Jack Hughes to shine offensively.
The most recent first overall pick, Matthew Schaefer, leads NHL rookies in goals and points, and he sits in the top 10 for points by a defenseman. The New York Islanders werenâ€t tanking before selecting Schaefer, but following the selection, theyâ€ve pointed their franchise’s direction toward a youth movement, betting on the future.
Luck most certainly plays a role when tanking. Even with the worst record in the NHL, teams arenâ€t guaranteed to land the first overall pick, and they arenâ€t guaranteed to become a superstar. Occasionally, as happened with the New York Rangers, Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens recently, they select a player who wonâ€t turn the franchise around but can be a big-time contributor.
The quarter mark of the NHL season is approaching, and plenty of hockey still needs to be played. But soon, teams will need to decipher where their season is headed.
With a projected top three of talented wingers Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg, as well as 6-foot-4, do-it-all defenseman Keaton Verhoeff, organizations like the Calgary Flames and the Nashville Predators would benefit greatly from selecting a possible franchise cornerstone in the top three.
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