The Houston Astros Dynasty is Over—What’s Next?

For the first time since 2016, the Houston Astros will be watching the postseason from home.

In a sport where repeating as World Series champions is something no team has done since the 2000 New York Yankees, the Astros’ run of success is as close to a dynasty as we’ve seen in the last 25 years.

Not only did they make eight straight playoff appearances, they reached the ALCS seven times, the World Series four times and hoisted the trophy twice.

Now it’s over, and the next move for the front office should be stripping the roster to the studs and shifting their focus to the future at the cost of the present.

The Astros were officially eliminated from postseason contention on Saturday when the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers both won to move one game ahead of them in the standings with tie-breakers in hand.

It has been a trying season filled with injuries, as Yordan Alvarez, Josh Hader, Isaac Paredes and Jake Meyers all missed significant stretches, while the starting rotation was a revolving door behind the one-two punch of Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez.

In that sense, you might be able to convince yourself that this team could be right back in the thick of things with better health next year, but age is not on their side and free agency looms large this winter.

They already shipped out Kyle Tucker ahead of his contract year during the offseason, and while Cam Smith has flashed some potential as the key return piece in that trade, he slumped badly in the second half.

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Left-hander Valdez is set to hit the open market, and after relying on the likes of Ryan Gusto, Colton Gordon, Jason Alexander, Brandon Walter and Hayden Wesneski to start a combined 56 games, his potential departure would only create more questions in what was already an unstable staff.

Jose Altuve (35 years old) and Carlos Correa (31 years old) will earn a combined $65.8 million next season, while Christian Walker (34 years old) still has two years and $40 million left on his contract after a disappointing Astros debut. The Twins are paying $27.6 million of Correa’s 2026 salary, but the Astros are on the hook for $20.5 million in 2027 and $20 million in 2028.

Outside of 27-year-old ace Hunter Brown and 28-year-old Alvarez, it’s hard to point at anyone on the roster as a true building block, and more big free agency decisions await in the coming years.

Bullpen ace Bryan Abreu is gone after the 2026 season, while Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes and Jake Meyers are all free agents after the 2027 season.

Now is the time to decide if they are going to try to lock up more of those players to try to stay in the thick of the AL West race, or if they want to start shopping them on the trade market to bolster their farm system.

That brings us to the argument for a full-scale rebuild.

Not only is the MLB roster aging and lacking in foundational talent, but the talent pipeline has dried up, with the farm system checking in at No. 27 in our final rankings of the season.

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Infielder Brice Matthews (40 PA, .143 BA, 64 OPS+) and outfielder Jacob Melton (74 PA, .149 BA, 13 OPS+) are the headliners, but both struggled in their first taste of the majors, and neither currently appears on the Baseball AmericaTop 100 list, which is absent anyone from the Houston organization.

The time is now to start addressing that weakness by stockpiling young talent with an eye on the future. Shopping guys like Peña, Paredes, and perhaps even Brown could be the start of a fire sale that provides a much-needed reset to an organization that had found sustainable success for nearly a decade on the other side of its last rebuild.

After reaching the 2005 World Series, the Astros slogged through years of mediocrity before finally committing to a rebuild, ultimately missing the playoffs nine years in a row before they returned in 2015. If they pull the trigger faster this time around, they might be able to avoid some pain in the long run.

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