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How Padres could line up starting rotation for playoffs

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Until they clinch, the Padres arenâ€t going to talk about their postseason rotation plans. I guess thatâ€s fair enough.

But pretty soon, itâ€s going to be the most important question they need to answer.

The Padres can clinch a playoff spot TONIGHT at Petco Park, and I suspect the place will be rocking. (As usual.) Nick Pivetta is slated to face the Brewers in what seems likely to be his final start of the regular season.

Pivetta has been the rotationâ€s stalwart. He has posted a 2.81 ERA across 30 starts and has been a steadying presence all year long. Presuming Monday is his final start, Pivetta should be lined up to start Game 1 of a potential Wild Card Series on a weekâ€s worth of rest.

This past weekend served as a de facto audition for the second and third spots in the Wild Card Series rotation. On Sunday, Michael King looked the part.

Which isnâ€t to say King was flawless over his five-plus scoreless frames. He walked four White Sox hitters and missed plenty of spots. But it was the first time since he returned from the injured list earlier this month that he looked like himself.

“Iâ€m definitely getting close,†King said. “This last week, I almost liked being able to focus on mechanics and pitch sequencing and scouting the other team. Almost every time [previously], it was like, ‘How are you feeling after that last one?â€, making sure Iâ€m healthy. I didnâ€t want to have those conversations. I wanted to be like: ‘Youâ€re not on rehab anymore. Just go out there and compete.’â€

The Padres havenâ€t finalized any plans, obviously, but I think theyâ€d greatly prefer for King to pitch Game 2 of a Wild Card Series. Heâ€ll have one more start to establish a rhythm after heâ€d missed 3 1/2 months with a nerve injury that affected his shoulder strength, then a left knee injury.

“Itâ€s more so just getting back into the flow of the season,†King said. “As a rehab guy, obviously youâ€re out there cheering on your team. But youâ€re not part of the competition. So thatâ€s the aspect of the game that almost comes back last. Iâ€ve been really trying to lock in. … Itâ€s definitely a process. But, yeah, weâ€ve got to turn it on.â€

If King looks sharp in his next outing — presumably on Friday night against the Diamondbacks — heâ€ll have earned his spot. He has already proven that heâ€s more than capable of handling the October spotlight. He was the Padres†Game 1 starter last postseason. And when he has been healthy this year, King has still looked like an ace.

Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish and Randy Vásquez round out the current rotation. Thereâ€s a case to be made for all three of them, though the track records of Darvish and Cease are obviously far more extensive.

Then again, both have been wildly inconsistent this season. Over the weekend, they showed signs of quality but were essentially mediocre against a poor White Sox offense — Cease especially. He has the highest ceiling of the group, but he has rarely tapped into that ceiling and hasnâ€t performed in the postseason.

Darvishâ€s playoff track record is a mixed bag. But he was excellent for the Padres last year. Then again, his ERA sits north of 5, and he has been especially prone to early blow-ups. Thatâ€s untenable in a short postseason series (and potentially a winner-take-all Game 3).

Which brings us to Vásquez, who has been nails this season in the fifth-starter role the Padres have assigned him. He has been sent down a couple times, and each time, he has returned and continued to thrive. His raw numbers — a 3.94 ERA across 25 starts — are the best of the group, even if his peripheral numbers arenâ€t.

Still, the Padres have very rarely entrusted Vásquez with working deep into games, and theyâ€ve twice removed him from their rotation entirely. Would they now entrust him with a start in the postseason?

Vásquez will get at least one more shot to make his case. Same goes for Darvish and Cease. The Padres have other goals to worry about right now, so they wonâ€t be tipping their hand.

“Itâ€s interesting, because youâ€re living in two different places,†said manager Mike Shildt. “Weâ€ve got to live in the present. And then evaluate and have plans for moving forward. But … the planning will ultimately take place when we wrap up our opportunity to play in the postseason.â€

Possibly later tonight — after the champagne is popped.

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‘Iâ€m starting to get jealousâ€: Shane Lowry on McIlroy, ambition and the Ryder Cup | Ryder Cup

Rory McIlroy nudged Shane Lowry at a recent European Ryder Cup team gathering as footage of the 2006 football World Cup final was shown. “‘We watched that match together,’†Lowry says McIlroy reminded him. “I was like, ‘What?’ He said: ‘Yeah, European Youths’ Team Championships. Sotogrande.’ From that to sitting at a Ryder Cup dinner, 19 years later is pretty cool.†Next stop, Bethpage.

Lowry has told his close friend that he envies him, in the nicest possible sense. The 38-year-old looked on with smiles, but green eyes, as McIlroy won the Masters – completing a career grand slam – and produced heroics to win a second Irish Open this month. “I said to him the other day, I am starting to get really jealous,†Lowry says. “I also said to him that I hope Irish people realise how lucky they are to have Rory at that level, coming back to play the Irish Open every year.

“He says: ‘Yeah, but how lucky are we to have that support?’ I was very jealous of the Masters, I was very jealous that Irish Open Sunday. I am happy for him, of course I am, but I want to achieve stuff myself.

“I want it so badly. I want everything, I want to achieve it all. If I was to pack it all in now, would I be happy with what I have? I have had a pretty good career. But do I want more? Absolutely. That is the reason to get up in the morning.†McIlroy thinks Lowry can be overly hard on himself.

Lowry laughs when contemplating any interviews where McIlroy is not a key topic for discussion. He jabbed back on the Saturday evening at Augusta, when his pal’s Green Jacket quest was a mistimed line of questioning. “I get it, I totally get it,†Lowry says. “But I have just come off the course. The last thing I want to do is talk about another player doing what I am trying to do the next day.†Which is fair enough.

By 2007, Lowry and McIlroy were part of the Ireland side that triumphed in the European Amateur Team Championship at Western Gailes. Lowry, who beat Victor Dubuisson in the final, can reel off the others in that team without effort. Lowry and Ireland defended successfully in 2008.

“All these guys were great players,†Lowry says. “I never thought I was better than any of them. Amateur golf in Ireland was really popular because of Rory. I learned a lot from that, even playing in front of decent crowds.

“I had always looked at others as being better than me. That helped me. I wouldn’t say I played with a chip on my shoulder, but I played with that fear of not being good enough.â€

That sense still lingers despite Lowry sitting at the top of the game. “All the time,†he says. “You play with a fear of failure. The reason I get up and work every day is because I am afraid to fail. A fear of not being good enough. I don’t go to practise because I think I am good enough. I never play with loads of confidence.

The careers of Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry (right) have been linked closely and they enjoyed success for Europe in the 2023 Ryder Cup. Photograph: Zac Goodwin/PA

“In that 2007 team, I was number four, five or six. I wasn’t even close to the top, I wasn’t part of any Walker Cup conversation. I took a lot of confidence from Western Gailes, went home and won the Irish Close Championship and started doing well abroad.

“I don’t think I ever realised how good I was and I was still so young. Enter tournament, play, if I didn’t win I just moved on to the next week. Then I get an invite to Baltray in 2009 and bang, there you go.†Lowry won that Irish Open when still an amateur.

McIlroy is the golden boy of European, never mind Irish, golf but glances through time link him intrinsically with Lowry. The pair diverged in 2007, when McIlroy made his Open debut and turned professional, but they return to the Ryder Cup arena this week as hugely influential members of Team Europe. They possibly have a point to prove together; at Whistling Straits in 2021, a comprehensive Friday defeat by Tony Finau and Harris English was a miserable experience.

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“We weren’t even close to winning†Lowry says. “People say how great it is to make the team and all that, but there is no point in going then getting the shit beaten out of you. You want to go and win. It’s the same as qualifying for the Masters; there’s no point doing that then missing the cut.â€

That last Ryder Cup on US territory wounded all in European colours. Lowry watched his compatriot and close friend Padraig Harrington criticised heavily for his approach to captaincy. “Brutal,†is his assessment of what Harrington endured. “He has had such an amazing career, is such an amazing man, that it was harsh enough on him.â€

The 38-year-old dismisses any notion of a Covid-affected away game hampering Europe in Wisconsin. “You don’t make excuse. If you are standing there making excuses you are in the wrong game. It drove me on. Since then, my golf has been very consistent. I wanted to right that wrong and even more so this time, going away again even though we are now a totally different team.â€

Lowry was married in New York. Any sense the Bethpage experience has him quaking in his shoes would be completely wrong. “We go there a couple of times a year. I am completely in love with New York, nothing but good experiences.

“This is an opportunity. A lot of people dwell on negatives; how tough it will be, how bad the crowd might be. How amazing an opportunity do we have here? We could write ourselves in history. I have won an Open, a Ryder Cup, my national open. If I was to add this to it, Jesus … I am a very lucky person to achieve what I have so far, but adding this would be amazing.â€