Browsing: spread

Oct 21, 2025, 12:03 PM ET

Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.

Key links: Sports betting home | MLB odds page | NFL odds page
NBA odds page | NHL odds page | ESPN BET

Oct. 21: Impact of LeBron James’ injury on Lakers’ spread, win total

David Purdum: The Los Angeles Lakers went from favorites to underdogs in their opener against the Golden State Warriors, after it was announced that LeBron James would miss the start of the season while dealing with sciatica on his right side.

The Lakers were listed as 3-point favorites over the Warriors before James’ injury was announced. The line shifted all the way to Warriors -2.5 after the news.

“I don’t think LeBron individually is worth that many points,” Jeff Sherman, a veteran NBA oddsmaker with the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN. “He’s not worth five and half points.”

Sherman said the line movement in the Warriors-Lakers game is more pronounced because of the spread being relatively low to start. “When you start getting through a pick ’em line, it just cuts through butter. [The movement] has more to do with the region the line was in,” he added.

James, 40, is not expected to return until mid-November, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. Sherman estimated that James could miss around 12 games and adjusted the Lakers’ season-win total, accordingly.

The Lakers’ win total had been around 48.5 at sportsbooks over the summer and ahead of the James injury announcement. Sherman said he thought the adjustment should be a reduction of around three wins, but the overall betting market only moved slightly.

“There was barely any adjustment,” Sherman said.

He moved the Lakers’ win total down to 46.5 and took some money on the over but kept the number at 46.5 entering Tuesday’s opener.

Despite James’ early absence, the Lakers have been a very popular bet at the SuperBook, where more bets have been placed on the Lakers to win the title than any other team by a “wide margin,” Sherman said.

Oct. 17: Who wants to win the AFC North?

Joe Flacco won his 12th game as starting QB against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Michael Owens/Getty Images

Doug Greenberg: Perhaps no other division in the NFL has gone less according to plan thus far than the AFC North. On Thursday night, the divisional drama experienced another twist when the hapless, Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals upset the Pittsburgh Steelers outright as five-point underdogs.

The Steelers entered the week as both the odds-on favorites to win the division (-160) and heavy favorites to make the playoffs (-275), according to ESPN BET. After the loss, they’re notably longer favorites for the AFC North (+115) and took a big hit in the playoff market (-140). The Bengals, seemingly revived with Joe Flacco under center, immensely improved their fortunes, going from 16-1 to +600 for the division, and from 11-1 to +400 to make the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens, recovering on bye after a disappointing 1-5 start to the season, benefited from the Pittsburgh loss without having to do anything, moving from +160 to +130 to win the AFC North at ESPN BET; Baltimore was as long as +190 for the division earlier in the week at other books.

At BetMGM, the Ravens actually didn’t move from their +105 odds to make the playoffs, but the book notes they are the most backed team in the league to miss the playoffs (-125) by handle. The Ravens opened the season as Super Bowl co-favorites (+650) and currently show 18-1, per ESPN BET lines.

Thursday’s result certainly resonated with bettors, who began fading Pittsburgh for the division en masse: ESPN BET reports that since the end of the game, the Ravens took a leading 36% of the handle to win the AFC North, while the Bengals garnered a leading 32.5% of the wagers. The Steelers, on the other hand, took just 14.5% of the tickets and 1% of the money.

What about the Cleveland Browns? They’re still a distant 35-1 to win the division, but they’re trending towards playing in a game with the lowest total of the season … again. Upon reports of potentially very windy, rainy weather in Cleveland, the Browns’ matchup with the Miami Dolphins has dropped precipitously from 40.5 at open to 36.5 as of Friday afternoon.

With several sportsbooks reporting heavy action on the under (as much as 98% of handle at BetMGM), this total could drop below the league-low 35.5 the Browns attracted in Week 5 against the Minnesota Vikings. The Browns also played in the second-lowest total game of the season against the Steelers in Week 6 (37.5).

See more:

Oct. 14: MNF caps off tumultuous Week 6 for NFL MVP futures

Patrick Mahomes becomes the new NFL MVP favorite after Week 6. Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire

Doug Greenberg: There’s a case to be made that the Atlanta Falcons’ upset win over the Buffalo Bills on Monday night was the single most consequential result for NFL futures thus far in the 2025 season, capping off a big week for futures movement.

Perhaps the most significant movement happened in the MVP market, which has a new favorite for the first time since Week 2. After two straight losses for his Bills, reigning MVP Josh Allen dropped from first to third on ESPN BET’s odds board, showing +325. Meanwhile, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes moved into the lead at +200, while Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield continued his surge up the board, showing second-favorite odds at +300.

Allen began the season tied for second on the board but was not an overly popular selection among bettors. Mahomes has gained momentum in terms of action, racking up the most handle at ESPN BET since the start of the season and since Week 4. The two-time MVP hit a long of 25-1 in the market on Sept. 28.

Top 5 NFL MVP candidates

But the public’s preference at this point is clearly Mayfield, who opened at 30-1, as he goes for his first MVP award. Since opening day, the 2018 first overall pick has attracted more tickets at DraftKings and ESPN BET than any other player. He also has the most handle at DraftKings over that time period, and the most wagers at ESPN BET since Week 4. Mayfield’s splits are also high at BetMGM, causing the book to identify him as its largest liability.

“Baker Mayfield’s play has vaulted him up into top contention, and Josh Allen’s back-to-back losses have bumped him down a bit,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini told ESPN over email. “Mahomes getting Rashee Rice back may be the boost he needs, but we still have a long way to go.”

To that end, Cipollini added that “there’s no clear front runner this early on in the NFL MVP race.”

While the top three candidates are starting to separate themselves from the pack, New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is rapidly moving up the board: After starting the season at 50-1 for NFL MVP, Maye showed 25-1 entering Sunday’s action and sits in fourth place at 11-1 at ESPN BET as of Tuesday afternoon.

The ripple effect

Maye’s breakout campaign has led New England to a head-to-head win over Buffalo, a 4-2 start and first place in the AFC East. The last point is notable from the betting perspective, because the Pats are now just +185 to win the division, shortened from +550 at the beginning of the season.

The Bills, coming off losses to New England and Atlanta, are still -225 for the AFC East, but that’s lengthened from -350 ahead of the season and an astounding -2500 entering Week 4. Buffalo’s slide, along with Kansas City’s resurgence, has shaken up the Super Bowl market as well: The Bills are now cofavorites with the Chiefs at +600 after coming into the week as solo favorites at +500, according to ESPN BET odds.

Source link