Browsing: regression

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  Rachel KryshakOct 2, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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  Rachel Kryshak is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.

The NHL preseason is close to finished, and the regular season is approaching on Oct. 7.

Last season, there were plenty of opportunities for regression, given what occurred during the 2023-24 season. Almost every player in last year’s article regressed in a meaningful way. Auston Matthews, Sam Reinhart, Jonathan Marchessault, Zach Hyman and the Vancouver Canucks regressed in their own significant ways from the previous season. That’s not to say they won’t bounce back this season.

Candidates for regression this season include those most likely to see a 10+% drop in production, be it goals or points, based on their situations. The biggest regression factor is shooting percentage; many players featured on this list shot well over their expected paces. Other factors include players projected to be in different situations, team environment and elevated matchups.

LW, Boston Bruins

Prior to last season, Morgan Geekie’s career high in shooting percentage was 13%. His shooting percentage in 2024-2025? 22%!

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Playing on Boston’s top line, that led to a goal total of 33, nearly doubling his previous career high of 17. Suffice to say, that is highly unlikely to occur in back-to-back seasons.

Geekie’s goal production exploded, his role increased with the Bruins and he saw his offensive zone starts increase from 12.1% to 19.1%. According to MoneyPuck, his 5-on-5 on-ice goals percentage was 58% against an expected percentage of 52.7%. Given the state of the Bruins, it is reasonable to expect those numbers to regress as well.

If Geekie continues to play on the top line, it is reasonable to expect his goal total to be in line with a complementary player on a top line, skating with an elite goal scorer (David Pastrnak). That is to say, Geekie is more likely to total between 22 and 26 goals, than he is to hit 30 again.

He will continue to be a key piece for the Bruins, getting those top-line minutes, but with that comes more difficult matchups. There is nowhere to “hide” when you play on the top line, he will have less time and space to maneuver, and it is fair to expect a drop in goal production.

C, Winnipeg Jets

Scheifele’s 2024-2025 season was incredible, notching 39 goals and 87 points. During the campaigns in which he tallied 38, 39 and 42 goals, his shooting percentage was around 20%, which is three percentage points higher than his career shooting percentage. He also scored more than 10 power-play goals in each of those seasons, which is likely where the regression is going to come from.

Last season, Scheifele had a career-high in power-play points, with 25, and while he should score around 20 again, the loss of Nikolaj Ehlers on the top power-play will impact a power play that ranked as the best in the NHL. It is unlikely the Jets would repeat a 29% success rate on the power play if the playmaking Ehlers was retained; it becomes less likely without him.

A regression in power-play success, combined with some expected shooting percentage regression should see Scheifele score around 30 goals and 77 points. While that is still top-line center production, a regression of more than 10% and nearly 25% in goal scoring would be a step back after a tremendous 2024-2025.

LW, Washington Capitals

Many Capitals players had eye-popping statistical seasons in 2024-2025, perhaps none more so than Protas.

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The 6-6, 247-pound forward broke out in a major way last season, more than doubling his point total from the season prior, and notching 30 goals, following a previous career high of six! Protas’ career-high shooting percentage was 8.8% … until last season, when it jumped to 21.1%. According to MoneyPuck, he scored 8.3 goals above expected in all situations.

There is no question his shot improved dramatically, but shooting 21% is not sustainable. The greatest shooter in the history of the sport, his teammate Alex Ovechkin, shot 18.6% last season. On that stat alone, you can expect significant regression. If Protas is a true 11-12% shooter, a more plausible goal output for him would be around 20 goals, 33% less than last season’s mark.

Adding to this, Protas scored zero power-play goals, and as long as Ovechkin is playing, the 24-year-old is unlikely to get many shooting opportunities on the power play. In fairness, no one on the Caps is.

Protas is tremendously talented and caught many teams by surprise last season. That will not be the case this season, and he will face tougher matchups as teams will be more aware of him as a scoring threat. He’s more likely to be a 55- to 60-point power winger than a 65-plus-point player.

LW, Tampa Bay Lightning

Hagel’s profile was raised an order of magnitude higher after his performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off, despite have three consecutive seasons of quality offensive production in Tampa Bay.

He’s a menace for the Lightning, and a shorthanded threat, notching seven points on the penalty kill last season, accounting for nearly half of his career output while a man down (16). While Hagel is one of the league’s most dangerous penalty killers, he is unlikely to have a repeat performance of shorthanded offensive production.

A 90-point season raised a lot of eyebrows around the NHL, but Hagel’s shooting percentage was a relatively sustainable 15.4%. Hagel is slated to play on the second line with Anthony Cirelli, another excellent two-way player. While he is still likely to be near a point-per-game pace, Hagel is unlikely to notch 90 points playing in that role, without meaningful time skating on a line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. His true talent is more indicative of a 75-80 point player, which is elite for a second-liner, but almost a 15% drop in production should be expected.

RW, Vegas Golden Knights

One of the best two-way wingers in the NHL has a few things working against him this season.

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First and foremost, he’s played more than 60 games just three times in the last 10 seasons. Yes, there was COVID, but no one following the NHL is going to make the argument that Mark Stone’s health is something to be relied upon. He was uncharacteristically healthy last season, and yet managed to play in only 66 of the 82 games, tallying 67 points. Stone is 33, and has dealt with more than his fair share of back injuries; those do not go away with age.

Adding to that, Stone has rightfully lost his spot next to Jack Eichel because, in case you haven’t heard, Mitch Marner is now with the Golden Knights. That will dimmish Stone’s opportunity alongside one of the past centers in the NHL, though Stone should still get opportunities on the top power-play unit.

The regression boils down to Stone’s injury history, a decreased role on the second line, and that the drop from Eichel to William Karlsson is significant enough to warrant a 10% drop in offensive production at even strength. When all of those factors are considered, it is difficult to see Stone having a second consecutive season of 65-plus points. However, if he stays healthy and plays 82 games for the first time in his career, he is projected for 68 points.

C, Dallas Stars

Duchene is expected to be the third-line center for the Stars this season, and I cannot think of a single third-line center who notched 82 points.

He should continue to get power-play time, but a third-line role behind Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston will limit his ice-time and opportunities to create offense. Further to that, Duchene shot 19.7% last season, the second highest mark of his career, which carries an average shooting percentage of 13.6%. With decreasing opportunity, it is not a guarantee that Duchene tallies 150 shots this season. Combined with expected regression on his shooting percentage, his projection of 21 goals and 40 assists is excellent for a third-line player, but a drop from the point-per-game season he authored in 2024-2025.

Age is not in Duchene’s favor, either. Given age curves, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his production fall by more than 20% regardless of ice time or offensive opportunity afforded to him. The 34-year-old is highly talented; however, Father Time catches everyone not named Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, it seems.

He’ll be one of the best bottom-six players in the NHL, but it is difficult to envision how he matches last season’s production.

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