Browsing: Playoffs

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  Bradford DoolittleOct 12, 2025, 01:30 PM ET

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  • MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
  • Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
  • Been with ESPN since 2013

Let’s ignore the fact that the 2025 MLB playoffs began on the last day of September and might end on the first day of November — because it’s always October when it comes to playoff baseball — and ask this: Who is this year’s Mr. October?

What if I told you that so far, it’s a certain Japanese-born star on the Los Angeles Dodgers with a nasty splitter? OK, admittedly that doesn’t narrow it down as much as you would think, but I’m guessing the first name that flashed in your mind was Shohei Ohtani. The right answer: Roki Sasaki. For now, anyway.

At least that’s the answer through the rubric of Win Probability Added (WPA, a metric that’s been around for a while now and has a lot of utility in putting numbers to the narratives that emerge as the October bracket plays out.)

How the Dodgers fixed Roki Sasaki

After a disastrous MLB debut, L.A.’s new ninth-inning man has unleashed jaw-dropping stuff in October.
Jeff Passan »

The Dodgers, the sole wild-card team remaining, have played an extra round, and Sasaki currently leads all players on baseball’s final four rosters in playoff WPA with .706. Here’s Sasaki’s game-by-game performance:

Oct. 1: .015 (Finished the last inning of an 8-4 wild-card win over the Cincinnati Reds, a relatively low-leverage outing. But he looked good doing it, setting the Reds down in order with two whiffs. Hmmm. Maybe this means something.)

Oct. 4:.099 (Closed out the Dodger’s 5-3 win Game 1 of the division series at the Philadelphia Phillies. Something is definitely brewing here.)

Oct. 6:.208 (Sasaki faced one batter! But it was the last batter of the game, Trea Turner, and there were runners on the corners with two outs with the Dodgers clinging to a 4-3 lead. Turner grounded out, and the Dodgers grabbed a commanding lead in the series. L.A., we might have a new closer.)

Oct. 9:.384 (Sasaki retired all nine batters he faced during the eighth, ninth and 10th innings of a 1-1 game. The Dodgers went on to win the series clincher, and any doubts that L.A. has found a lethal, high-leverage playoff reliever were erased.)

Numbers that function as narrative. That’s WPA. We’ve been keeping tabs on these numbers as the playoffs have unfolded — and will continue to do so. Our leaderboards and conclusions will be updated here as we move forward, so keep checking back.

Jump to:
Methodology | Top 5 | WPA hero of the day
Top 10 for eliminated players | Ohtani tracker | The all-time WPA champs

Methodology

The way WPA works is that play-by-play during a game, if you do something that improves your team’s chances to win, you get a positive credit. If you don’t, it’s a negative. In small samples, one play can have an outsized effect on WPA. A grand slam in a 10-0 game? Great for your stat line, but the blast does little to change the game’s outcome. Hit the same homer with your team down 3-0 in the eighth, and you’ve made some history. Because of that, there is a bias toward players who end up in a lot of close games — but only if they come through.

All we’ve done here is to marry the hitting and pitching versions of WPA together based on the version of the system at Baseball-Reference.com. Why add pitching and hitting WPA together in 2025, the era of the universal DH?

Well, you know why — Mr. Ohtani — and it was his historic debut as a two-way postseason player this season that inspired us to watch the WPA results a little more closely this October. So far, Ohtani has been pretty quiet during this postseason, but these leaderboards can change fast, so don’t write off Ohtani just yet.

Top 5 alive

Best postseason WPAs from players on teams still playing

1. Roki Sasaki, Dodgers | .706

The current 2025 Mr. October.

2. Andres Munoz, Seattle Mariners | .598

Munoz went 4-for-4 in posting positive WPAs during Seattle’s tense five-game win over the Detroit Tigers in the ALDS. Munoz put up 5â…“ scoreless innings during his four outings.

One-stop shop for 2025 MLB playoffs

We have everything you need to keep up with all the action this October. Schedule, bracket, more »

3. Alex Vesia, Dodgers | .591

Vesia is a good example of why WPA can be more telling than traditional stats in the short series of October. His postseason ERA is 6.00. Egad! But that’s because he gave up two low-leverage runs in the first game against Cincinnati, a Dodgers rout. Vesia hasn’t been dinged in four subsequent outings that had a lot more weight to them, including the last inning of L.A.’s extra-inning, close-out win over Philadelphia, when he came on for Sasaki.

4. Blake Snell, Dodgers | .581

Snell was dealing in both of his outings so far, one in Game 1 against Cincinnati, the other in Game 2 against Philadelphia, the terse affair in which Sasaki recorded the last out.

5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays | .434

We all saw what Guerrero did against the Yankees — 9-for-14 with three homers and nine RBIs. Because Toronto won so many lopsided games in the series, it limited the chances of any of the Jays to roll up WPA points. But the early damage Guerrero did in those contests were enough to land him here.

About last night

Golden Guy: Chad Patrick, Milwaukee Brewers (.240)

Patrick retired all five batters he faced during a midgame stretch in which the Brewers led the Chicago Cubs just 2-1. He replaced Aaron Ashby in the sixth with two runners on base and one out, getting Seiya Suzuki on a long fly and striking out Ian Happ to escape the threat. FanGraphs measured those two plate appearances as the first- and third-highest leverage plays of Game 5.

This was Patrick’s third straight game leading the Brewers in WPA. It’s been quite a run for the rookie, who was moved to the bullpen for the postseason after making 23 largely successful starts during the regular season.

Good while they lasted

Top 10 postseason WPAs from players on eliminated teams

1. Will Vest, Tigers | .848

2. Tarik Skubal, Tigers | .609

3. Kerry Carpenter, Tigers | .591

4. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees | .579

5. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians | .482

6. Keider Montero, Tigers | .441

7. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies | .349

8. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox | .348

9. Cam Schlittler, Yankees | .314

10. Brad Keller, Cubs | .283

Ohtani tracker

Since Ohtani inspired all of this, we should keep tabs on him.

Through the NLDS:

Hitting WPA: minus-.257

Pitching WPA: minus-.062

WPA: minus-.319 (267th of 284 players this postseason)

It can only get better from here, right? Ohtani is 4-for-27 at the plate (.148) with two homers. Both dingers came in Game 1 against Cincinnati and one of those was with the Dodgers already leading 6-0. Ohtani posted a good line in his lone pitching outing so far — six innings, three runs, nine strikeouts. But the runs he gave up were early and with the Dodgers down three runs for much of his outing, that limited his chances to compile WPA.

The WPA pantheon

Top 10 single-season postseason WPAs since 1903

Note: It’s a big time frame, but the cumulative nature of the leaderboard heavily favors the recent decades when there have been more playoff rounds.

1. David Freese, 2011 St. Louis Cardinals | 1.908

2. David Ortiz, 2004 Red Sox | 1.892

3. Curt Schilling, 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.748

4. Alex Rodriguez, 2009 Yankees | 1.704

5. Yordan Alvarez, 2022 Houston Astros | 1.646

6. Carlos Beltran, 2013 Cardinals | 1.582

7. Bernie Williams, 1996 Yankees | 1.545

8. John Wetteland, 1996 Yankees | 1.522

9. Eric Hosmer, 2014 Kansas City Royals | 1.443

10. Mariano Rivera, 2003 Yankees | 1.420

Editor’s Picks

2 Related

Ohtani is unique as a full-time two-player in a series, but not the first. For one, Babe Ruth won two games on the mound and played in left field during the 1918 series, though he did not start any of the games as a position player. But there have been pitchers who have had big postseasons with the bat.

Here are the four instances in which a player posted at least .200 WPA on both the hitting and pitching sides during the same postseason. This is the list we thought Ohtani might join. He has some work to do to get there, but at least we know that if he doesn’t do it, in 2025 baseball, no one else will.

• Christy Mathewson, 1913 New York Giants (1.054 WPA | .447 hitting; .607 pitching)

• Rube Foster, 1915 Red Sox (.883 WPA | .303 hitting; .580 pitching)

• Babe Ruth, 1918 Red Sox (.710 WPA (.209 hitting; .501 pitching)

• General Crowder, 1935 Tigers (.923 WPA | .207 hitting; .716 pitching)

• Jake Arrieta, 2016 Cubs (.480 WPA | .218 hitting; .262 pitching)

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Oct 12, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

The 2025 MLB playoffs are down to the final four teams after an action-packed division series round that saw the Milwaukee Brewers and Seattle Mariners move on in thrilling Game 5s.

Now that the matchups are set — Los Angeles Dodgers-Brewers and Mariners-Toronto Blue Jays — it’s time for some (more) predictions! We asked our MLB experts to weigh in on who will reach the World Series, which players will earn league championship series MVP honors and the themes that will rule the week to come. We also had our experts explain why their initial Fall Classic picks are still in play — or where they went very wrong.

LCS previews: Blue Jays-Mariners, Dodgers-Brewers | Bracket

Jump to:ALCS | NLCS | Predictions we got right | … and wrong

ALCS

Seattle Mariners (8 votes)

In how many games:seven games (5 votes), six games (3)

MVP if Mariners win: Cal Raleigh (4), Randy Arozarena (2), Josh Naylor (1), Julio Rodriguez (1)

Who picked Seattle: Jorge Castillo, Alden Gonzalez, Paul Hembekides, Eric Karabell, Tim Keown, Kiley McDaniel, Jeff Passan, David Schoenfield

Toronto Blue Jays (6 votes)

In how many games:seven games (2 votes), six games (3), five games (1)

MVP if Blue Jays win: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3), George Springer (1), Kevin Gausman (1), Daulton Varsho (1)

Who picked Toronto: Tristan Cockcroft, Bradford Doolittle, Tim Kurkjian, Dan Mullen, Buster Olney, Jesse Rogers

The one thing we’ll all be talking about:

How a perpetually tormented franchise is going to represent the American League in the World Series. The Mariners have played 49 seasons. They’re the only team in MLB never to make the World Series. And to advance to the American League Championship Series in such dramatic fashion only supercharges the stakes for them.

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, spend year after year in the AL East meat grinder, haven’t been to the World Series since winning it in 1993 and returned much of the roster from a team that went 74-88 last year. They’re a delightful team to watch, though, putting the ball in play, vacuuming balls on the defensive side like Pac-Man, running the bases with purpose and throwing tons of filthy splitters.

Destiny calls one of these snakebit organizations. It’s a fight decades in the making. — Jeff Passan

Editor’s Picks

2 Related

The stars in both lineups. On one side you have George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who torched the Yankees in the American League Division Series. On the other, it’s Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh. Complementary players matter in October, but stars fuel deep October runs. — Jorge Castillo

There’s so much to like about the Mariners — the powerful lineup led by Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez, good starting pitching and an effective closer, and they’re good at home — but they will start this series at such a disadvantage because of how their series played out against the Tigers. Whether Dan Wilson chooses an opener or goes with a starting pitcher on short rest or leans into Bryan Woo for his first appearance in a month, the dominoes from the ALDS Game 5 will affect the choices Seattle will have to make in this round. Meanwhile, the Jays will be relatively well-rested. — Buster Olney

It rarely comes down to one thing in baseball, but as I like the way the Blue Jays’ hitters match up against the Seattle staff, I think we’ll be harping on the importance of making contact as a standout trait for an offense in this era of strikeout hyper-inflation. This will especially be the case if the Blue Jays end up playing the Brewers in the World Series. Batting average is alive and well! — Bradford Doolittle

NLCS

Los Angeles Dodgers (9 votes)

In how many games:Seven games (1 vote), six games (4), five games (3), four games (1)

MVP if Dodgers win: Shohei Ohtani (5), Blake Snell (2), Teoscar Hernandez (1), Freddie Freeman (1)

Who picked Los Angeles: Jorge Castillo, Alden Gonzalez, Paul Hembekides, Matt Marrone, Kiley McDaniel, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield

Milwaukee Brewers (5 votes)

In how many games:seven games (3 votes), six games (2)

MVP if Brewers win:Jackson Chourio (4), Andrew Vaughn (1)

Who picked Milwaukee: Tristan Cockcroft, Bradford Doolittle, Eric Karabell, Tim Keown, Dan Mullen

The one thing we’ll all be talking about:

How the Dodgers’ rotation doesn’t just have them on the brink of becoming the first repeat champion in a quarter century, but might make a case for the best a team has ever fielded this time of year. The foursome of Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow will continue to dominate. — Alden Gonzalez

How the big market Dodgers have tipped the economic scales in baseball will be the talk during the World Series, but for the LCS, the conversation will be about Shohei Ohtani. He’s going to get hot. Hitting .148 in the postseason so far — with 12 strikeouts to just three walks — is an outlier. That will reverse itself very soon as his struggles this postseason come to an end starting on Monday. He’s your NLCS MVP. — Jesse Rogers

One-stop shop for 2025 MLB playoffs

We have everything you need to keep up with all the action this October. Schedule, bracket, more »

Can anyone stop the Dodgers? It’s the same question that was asked last year. The answer was no. And now Los Angeles is coming off a series in which it beat a very game Philadelphia team while posting a .557 OPS and hitting two home runs, the fewest of any division series team. The prospect of the Dodgers’ bats staying cold for an extended period of time is unlikely, regardless of what’s thrown at them.

After two rounds, the Dodgers have solved their closer issue — Roki Sasaki is the guy — but their lack of bullpen depth has been exacerbated. For a seven-game series, manager Dave Roberts needs to find at least one more reliever he can trust, or the Dodgers could find themselves in the sort of late-inning trouble that has yet to derail them. If that and the paltry offense couldn’t do the job, perhaps nothing can. — Passan

The talk of the NLCS will be the same story as in the Dodgers’ NLDS win over the Phillies: the starting pitching and their new closer.

Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow are peaking at the right time, the main reason — along with Roki Sasaki — why the Dodgers held the Phillies to a .212 average in their series (and under .200 if you ignore the Clayton Kershaw disastrous relief outing). Of course, the related talk, if they do dominate, is that this is the ultimate store-bought staff of high-end pitchers, with four free agents and Glasnow (acquired in a trade, signed to a big extension). Not a single homegrown starter. — David Schoenfield

World Series predictions we’re right about — so far

I rarely go chalk when filling out a bracket, but this year I did exactly that by seed line — picking both the Brewers and Blue Jays. Of course, those No. 1 seeds were also far less popular choices going into the postseason than the Yankees and Phillies, among others, but a second straight World Series between top seeds is still in play. — Dan Mullen

The Blue Jays easily handled the Yankees, especially at Rogers Centre. They’re rightfully the slight Vegas favorite to win this series with home-field advantage. But I picked the Mariners to win the World Series before the regular season started and again before the postseason, so I’m sticking with them. — Castillo

How the Dodgers fixed Roki Sasaki

After a disastrous MLB debut, L.A.’s new ninth-inning man has unleashed jaw-dropping stuff in October.
Jeff Passan »

The Dodgers were one bad Orion Kerkering decision away from potentially having to go back to Philadelphia and win a do-or-die game — and now, they should be everyone’s favorites. The Yankees just got beaten by a better team. — Passan

Well, obviously the Phillies found a way to “Phillies” again, so they won’t be winning, but I had the Mariners representing the AL, and they have the pitching to hold the Blue Jays relatively in check. In the NL, it’s Milwaukee’s best chance in such a long time. It may be unconventional against the behemoth Dodgers, but the Brewers have the pitching and depth. We’ll have a first-time WS champion, the Brewers. — Eric Karabell

World Series predictions gone wrong

My World Series pick (Phillies-Yankees): If I had it to do all over again, I would have picked two teams that did not lose in the LDS. Thinking back to my late-September self, I’m sure I was entranced by the veteran presence and long ball power on both the Phillies and Yankees. It did not work out. — Doolittle

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I also predicted Yankees-Phillies, a 2009 World Series rematch that failed to materialize thanks to a scorching Blue Jays lineup and a dominant showing from the Dodgers’ starting rotation. — Paul Hembekides

Before the playoffs, I predicted the Phillies would beat the Dodgers in the NLDS and go on to win the World Series. The home-field advantage wasn’t what I thought it would be for Philly, though the starters and Jhoan Duran were as good as expected: 30.1 innings, 6 earned runs for a 1.78 ERA in the series. I’ll shift my World Series winner prediction over to the Dodgers, as they were my second option from before the playoffs. — Kiley McDaniel

I had the Phillies winning the World Series, which says a lot about what it meant for the defending-champion Dodgers to get past them in the division series. They might have been the most talented in this field. — Gonzalez

Since my original pick, the Phillies, decided to play the Dodgers just as Roki Sasaki and Emmet Sheehan transformed the Dodgers’ bullpen into a formidable unit, Los Angeles seems like the obvious pick here now — and why not a West Coast World Series against the Mariners, with the shadows creeping from the mound to home plate in the late afternoon sun, and every game ending 2-1? — Tim Keown

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MILWAUKEE — Going into Game 5 of the NLDS on Saturday, the feeling at American Family Field was eerily similar to another October night a little more than a year ago. On that night, the Brewers†2024 wild-card series ended in a winner-take-all Game 3 against the Mets. And in some ways, thatâ€s where the story of Milwaukeeâ€s 2025 season began.

Last fall, the Brewers saw the Mets defeat them in crushing fashion, as Pete Alonsoâ€s ninth-inning, game-winning home run ended Milwaukeeâ€s season in front of its home crowd. Many Brewers players stayed and watched as New York celebrated advancing to the next round on their home field.

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Brewers manager Pat Murphy had to give his team a difficult speech that night. The takeaway of his message was that the difficult moment could benefit them going forward.

“Don’t know how,†Murphy remembered saying, “but somehow, that experience will help us.â€

[Get more Chicago news: Cubs team feed]

Fast-forward a year later, and on Saturday, the Brewers were once again on their home field playing a must-win game with a chance to advance on the line. But this time around, as Joey Ortiz fielded the final out off the bat of Carson Kelly and fired to first, sending 42,000 fans into a frenzy, it was clear something had changed.

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“You can’t really lose [a game] tougher than we did last year,†designated hitter Christian Yelich said afterward. “So going into tonight, you just play with a bunch of freedom. You know you’ve got belief and trust in your teammates that we’re going to be able to get the job done.â€

That belief ultimately turned into a 3-1 victory over the Cubs and a ticket to the NLCS vs. the Dodgers. As blue and gold steamers fell from the rafters after the final out, covering the field, the Brewers players mobbed one another in the middle of the diamond.

Emerging victorious from the winner-take-all NLDS Game 5 was going to require two things from the Brewers. First, their offense needed to give their pitchers a lead to work with. And second, considering how the previous four games of the series had gone — with 21 total runs scored in the first inning — getting the lead early was probably going to be key.

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In this one, it was catcher William Contreras who took the big first-inning swing, sending a 94.1-mph four-seamer from Cubs opener Drew Pomeranz into the Brewers†bullpen and putting Milwaukee ahead 1-0. But one run never felt like it would be enough to win this elimination game, and sure enough, Cubs slugger Seiya Suzuki followed with a solo blast that tied the game in the top of the second inning.

The second big swing for Milwaukee came from first baseman Andrew Vaughn, who has played a key role for Milwaukee this year after being optioned and traded by the White Sox in June. The 27-year-old authored a stunning revival with the Brewers, becoming a force in Milwaukeeâ€s lineup. And just as he did across the second half of the season, the first baseman produced in a big moment, launching a 3-2 cutter to left field just beyond the reach of outfielder Ian Happ. Vaughnâ€s solo homer gave Milwaukee a 2-1 lead and swung the momentum back to the Brewers.

“The journey has been kind of crazy,†Vaughn said after the game. “The opportunity to be with this group, itâ€s changed my life, honestly.â€

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Late in the one-run game, Milwaukee seemed to have Chicago on the ropes and was looking for a knockout blow. Second baseman Brice Turang hadnâ€t done much during this NLDS, with just two hits going into Game 5. But in the bottom of the seventh, Turang ambushed Cubs†reliever Andrew Kittredgeâ€s first-pitch slider and hit a no-doubt blast off the batterâ€s eye in center field, giving the Brewers some breathing room with a 3-1 lead.

Slugging isnâ€t a huge part of the Brewers†game, yet across five games, they outslugged the Cubs eight home runs to six. And when those home runs happened might have been even more impactful, as six of Milwaukeeâ€s homers, including all three in Game 5, came with two outs.

The other side of Milwaukeeâ€s recipe for success Saturday was their bullpen arms, whom the team entrusted to get all 27 outs. Kicking things off was All-Star closer Trevor Megill. After all the first-inning runs in this series, the Brewers showed some urgency by sending their high-leverage arm out to set the tone.

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When Megill walked off the mound after blowing a 99-mph fastball past Kyle Tucker and pumped his arms up and down to hype the crowd, it was exactly what Milwaukee needed.

Next came fireballer Jacob Misiorowski. The rookie right-handerâ€s night started off rocky, with the Suzuki homer to lead off the second, but the 23-year-old settled in after that. He tossed four huge innings while allowing just that one run, which turned out to be the Cubs†only score of the game.

“I don’t think I knew exactly how much I had,†Misiorowski said afterward. “I think I was giving everything I’ve got. And I think I left everything out there.â€

For the Cubs, the biggest moment of the game — and one theyâ€ll likely think about all winter — came in the sixth inning. The first two batters reached base, with Michael Busch hitting a single and Nico Hoerner getting hit by a pitch. With Chicagoâ€s 3-4-5 hitters due up, it felt like Milwaukee was on the precipice of letting the game slip away.

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But after falling behind in the count 3-1, southpaw Aaron Ashby came back to get Kyle Tucker swinging for the first out. Then right-hander Chad Patrick came into the game. He induced a lineout from Suzuki and then struck Ian Happ out looking, ending Chicagoâ€s biggest and best opportunity to score with a perfectly placed 90.5 mph cutter.

In total, the Brewers†bullpen was terrific in the series-clinching victory. Megill, Misiorowski, Ashby, Patrick and Abner Uribe combined to toss nine innings while allowing just one run and one walk and striking out eight batters.

“They pitched very well. I mean, they pitched super well,†Cubs manager Craig Counsell said postgame. “The only inning that we disrupted, maybe, the plan was the sixth. But the rest of the game, they did a heck of a job.â€

In addition to advancing the Brewers to the next round, the Game 5 victory over the Cubs allowed Milwaukee to exorcise some recent postseason demons. It was the Brewers†first playoff series win since the 2018 NLDS against the Colorado Rockies. And prior to Saturday, the Brewers had lost five straight postseason clinchers, including Games 3 and 4 of this NLDS.

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“I don’t worry about how many years it’s been,†Murphy said. “I know this: We’ve been in contention every year [I’ve] been here, and I’m just thankful for that. And starting in 2017, I guess, we’ve either been in the playoffs or a game away. That says something about the org. Says something about the front office and the ownership and the coaching staff.

“But most importantly, understanding the type of player that has to play here. And we got a bunch of them in there that’s pretty special.â€

Milwaukee will now face the L.A. Dodgers, starting with Game 1 on Monday at home, in a rematch of the 2018 NLCS. While Los Angeles is heavily favored in this championship series, the Brewers won all six regular-season meetings between the clubs in 2025. And with their five-round fight against the Cubs behind them, the Brewers can feel confident about their resilience and resolve going forward.

“It was an unbelievable atmosphere tonight,†Yelich said. “The two fan bases going back and forth, and Game 5 in the series. We had a feeling before it started — we play each other so close all season long, this series is probably going to go five, and it was going to be a lot of ups and downs.

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“And credit to our guys for sticking with it, being mentally tough and being able to finish the job here. Just a huge win for us.â€

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TORONTO — Everybody was talking about it. How could you not?

Even here at Rogers Centre, a building bursting with anticipation for ALCS Game 1 on Sunday, folks were bleary eyed from taking in the eternal thrill ride that was Game 5 of the ALDS between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers. With the victorious Mariners airborne en route to Toronto, many of the Jays players and coaches were asked how they experienced the chaotic, 15-inning marathon the night prior.

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Some stayed up into the wee hours to see which team the Blue Jays would square off against with a trip to the World Series on the line. Others, by design or by accident, went to bed.

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The latter the case for Game 1 starter Kevin Gausman, who admitted during his Saturday media conference that he didnâ€t watch the mayhem. Manager John Schneider went out to dinner with his wife on a rare night off this month; he was surprised to see the game was still going when he returned home. Starting pitcher Shane Bieber stayed up until the 13th inning but then called it quits, perhaps exhausted by the sheer number of runners stranded in extras.

Ty France, the Jays†backup first baseman who spent four years in Seattle, also conked out around the 13th but was shaken awake by his wife, who happened to wake up just before Jorge Polanco ended the evening. Ernie Clement was proud to share he made it through all 15 from the comfort of his couch. Daulton Varsho didnâ€t watch a pitch.

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But the best tale from Blue Jays land about ALDS Game 5 came from outfielders Myles Straw and Davis Schneider, who decided to watch the winner-take-all contest from a bar. The duo thought it would be a relatively relaxing evening — grab a few brews, watch a ballgame, see who their opponent would be.

“We were literally like, ‘All right, weâ€ll just watch the game, but weâ€re not leaving ’til the game is over,â€â€ Schneider told Yahoo Sports. “And then it f***ing took forever.â€

Straw and Schneider did stay for the whole thing, chatting with Jays fans about whom theyâ€d rather face in the next round. Given Schneiderâ€s conspicuous mustache, he and Straw were easy to spot, and they had a fun night. Thankfully, the Jays had just a light workout Saturday, with an afternoon start time.

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For the Mariners, the turnaround is much more imposing. By the time J.P. Crawford touched home in the bottom of the 15th, sending T-Mobile Park into revelrous pandemonium, the clock was already past 10 p.m. local time. On the East Coast, Friday had already turned to Saturday. But the Mariners didnâ€t skip town in a rush; there was some well-earned Champagne that needed popping. In fact, the team didnâ€t head east until Saturday morning — and only after the team charter was delayed.

The Mariners are alive, but they are also running on fumes, with a pitching staff depleted from the eternal madness of Game 5. Had they won that contest in anything resembling normal fashion, Seattle would have almost certainly started Luis Castillo in ALCS Game 1. But he pitched in relief Friday for the first time as a big leaguer, earning the unlikely win. Instead, the Mâ€s will turn to Bryce Miller, who took the ball in Game 3 of the ALDS, on short rest.

The Seattle bullpen, too, even with the so-called off day, will not be at full strength Sunday. Itâ€s a dynamic that benefits the Jays, who watched Game 5 with increasing glee. But speaking Saturday, Mariners manager Dan Wilson seemed unfazed by this latest wrinkle.

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“I think a lot of times players will gain some energy from that,†he said of the epic victory.

Besides, his team is used to this. “The Mariners do a lot of traveling. We do a lot of East Coast traveling,†he said. “It’ll just be an extension of the season in some ways. We should be good to go.â€

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By Jared Clinton, Features writer

There aren’t many who will extol the virtues of the National Enquirer. That is, of course, because one would be hard pressed to associate the tabloid with virtuousness in the first place. But there is something to be said for the Enquirerâ€s cockroach-esque ability to maintain its place as a fixture of grocery-store checkouts. Trust, too, that its longevity has little to do with any reputation as a great bastion of journalistic integrity. Rather, it has survived by trading on one of humanityâ€s great truths: we all love a little bit of gossip.

Bristle at the suggestion if you wish. Deny it if you must. But the cold reality is no one is immune to a bit of idle talk, and most certainly not those within the hockeysphere. Rumors have become part of the daily news cycle. There are whole accounts all across social media dedicated to aggregating and disseminating the latest tidbits.

And our collective love of digging up the newest dirt even bleeds into television broadcasts, where entire intermission segments center around dissecting the latest chatter regarding this playerâ€s trade availability or that playerâ€s contract negotiations.

But much like understanding that the yarns spun in the Enquirer arenâ€t worth the paper on which they are printed, an essential part of living in the age of off-ice gossip is learning to distinguish fact from fiction. For John Q. Public, thatâ€s not always an easy thing. Doing so requires a smidgen of media literacy and a working cow-excrement detector. For the media types, itâ€s about leaning on well-placed sources. When youâ€re an NHL GM, though? You set out to hear these things straight from the horseâ€s mouth. And that is what brings us to Utah Mammoth GM Bill Armstrong.

Not unlike most rumor hounds, Armstrong couldnâ€t help but raise an eyebrow when word trickled out that JJ Peterka was on the market. In three big-league seasons in Buffalo, Peterka had established himself as a legitimate top-six talent. He finished the 2024-25 campaign tied for second in scoring for the Sabres, and with Buffalo desperate to right the ship, Peterka seemed a no-brainer to remain a fixture of the teamâ€s lineup for years to come.

One can understand, then, why Armstrong was skeptical of the trade talk.

“Itâ€s one of those things you ask those GMs when youâ€re talking to them,†Armstrong told reporters. “ ‘Is this true? Is there any life to this story?†Most times, thereâ€s none. But this particular one had some legs.â€

Thatâ€s not to say mapping out a swap for Peterka was as simple as a single phone call. As Armstrong put it, acquiring the 23-year-old right winger “took some time to mature and get across the finish line.†When all was said and done, the Mammoth sent 23-year-old right winger Josh Doan and 25-year-old defenseman Michael Kesselring the Sabres†way in exchange for Peterka. The cherry on top? Peterkaâ€s almost-immediate commitment to the project in Utah.

It just shows how committed I am to Utah, how excited I am and how much I believe in that group- JJ Peterka on signing a five-year deal.

–

An RFA at the time he was traded, Peterka signed a five-year, $38.5-million contract in the aftermath of his move to Utah. His $7.7-million cap hit makes him the franchiseâ€s highest-paid forward.

“Sometimes, you talk to guys when theyâ€re traded to you and theyâ€re in shock,†Armstrong said. “(JJ) was expecting it and excited about coming to Utah.â€

For Peterka, putting pen to paper was an easy choice, and that wasnâ€t only because of the dollars-and-cents of it all. When the Mammoth (nee Hockey Club) touched down in Utah last summer, a move made on the back of the Arizona Coyotes†protracted relocation saga, Peterka took note of the reception they received. He was also blown away by the atmosphere when he visited with Buffalo last season. And this is to say nothing of the talent in the lineup. That the mountains of Salt Lake City had a way of making the Munich native feel at home didnâ€t hurt either. Put it all together, and a long-term deal was a no-brainer.

“It just shows how committed I am to Utah, how excited I am and how much I believe in that group – what theyâ€ve got going and what theyâ€re building there,†Peterka said.

What the Mammoth are constructing – and have been dating back to their final days as the Coyotes – is a roster brimming with budding young stars. The squad appears poised to contend not just in the cutthroat Central Division but for a consistent spot in the Western Conference playoff picture.

But, as is evident by the fact Utah spent the 2024-25 season flitting in and out of wild-card contention before ultimately finishing on the outside looking in, the up-and-coming outfit is not without its flaws.

“You always have to be aware of where you are in the build and where youâ€re going,†Armstrong said. “Where weâ€re going is we needed somebody in the top two lines that could put the puck in the net and could have that ability to have impact.â€

That need was painfully apparent at times last season. At all strengths, Utahâ€s ability to generate shots and scoring chances added up to the NHLâ€s 10th-most expected goals (258.2). Even with Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther in the lineup, though, Utah struggled to turn opportunities into actual offensive output. By seasonâ€s end, the clubâ€s 240 goals tied for 20th in the NHL. And thatâ€s where Peterka comes in.

Though he has flown somewhat under the radar, Peterka has proven to be one of the leagueâ€s most-lethal shooters over the past two seasons. Look no further than the rate at which he has outperformed his expected offensive numbers. Among the 500-plus skaters to play at least 1,500 minutes at all strengths since the start of 2023-24, Peterka ranks an impressive – though not necessarily awe-inspiring – 113th in the NHL, producing 41.5 expected goals. Heâ€s exceeded expectations, however, by netting 55 goals over that span.

And itâ€s by that measure, the difference between expected and actual results, that Peterka has proven himself to be an exceptionally gifted finisher. Among that cohort of 500-plus skaters, only 27 have outstripped their expected total by as much or more than Peterkaâ€s 13.5 goals above expected.

The same ability to deliver is apparent when measuring per hour of ice time, too.

Though heâ€s not in the same stratosphere as compatriot Leon Draisaitl or former Sabres teammate Tage Thompson – who rank first and second with .60-plus goals more than expected per 60 minutes over the past two campaigns – Peterka has exceeded his expected per-hour goal production by .29 at all strengths.

That tied him for 25th in the NHL over the past two campaigns. To put that into context, Peterka ranks ahead of Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Eichel and Filip Forsberg. It also puts Peterka level with or clear of the top players available this summer, which included Mitch Marner, Nikolaj Ehlers and Brock Boeser.

That alone would make Peterka a fit on any team in the league, of course. But what gives the Mammoth even greater confidence that Peterka will be especially suited to the organization is that his style fits the way coach Andre Tourigny wants his team to play: north-south and up-tempo.

“The one thing Iâ€ve learned about him from watching him over the years is heâ€s got a unique ability to create a ton of speed down the wings,†Armstrong said.

Thatâ€s an asset Peterka has honed over the years. In fact, it dates back to the days when playing in the NHL was nothing but a distant dream. Peterka grew up a multi-sport athlete, and he sounds like heâ€s rattling off a list of Olympic events when naming his hobbies. His interest in multiple sporting disciplines led him to spend his winters balancing hockey with short-track speed skating. And while he eventually ditched the spandex bodysuit, the technique he learned on the oval remains to this day.

“I was always one of the fastest guys, probably because of that,†Peterka said. “Translating that to hockey wasnâ€t too hard. Obviously, not as many turns, but for straight-line skating and that stuff, it really helps.â€

Itâ€s one of those things you ask those GMs about. ‘Is there any life to this story?†This particular one had some legs- Utah GM Bill Armstrong on rumors of Peterka’s availability.

–

Despite Peterkaâ€s skill set and promising on-ice results, no one is expecting him to arrive and act as an immediate panacea for Utahâ€s scoring woes, nor is he being heralded as the missing piece who will singlehandedly push the club into Stanley Cup contention. Thatâ€s not the kind of pressure Armstrong wants to put on the youngster, either. This is all new for Peterka, who said getting traded was a “weird feeling.†Heâ€ll have to put down new roots in a new city and without the benefit of any familiar faces – his lone personal connections are to Utah prospects and fellow German national-team players Maksymilian Szuber and Julian Lutz.

Once that bedding-in period is complete, though, and Peterka has become familiar with his new Mammoth teammates, the hope is he will be one of the driving forces who help Utah turn promise and potential into post-season hockey and perhaps even a championship run.

That could happen in short order. It could be in due time. But Peterka is confident that, sooner or later, on-ice success is in the cards for the club.

“When you look at the roster and how many young players are there and already so good,†Peterka said, “I think just timeline-wise, for me, itâ€s going to be a perfect fit.â€

This article appeared in our 2025 Meet the New Guys issue. The cover story for this issue features the newest Vegas Golden Knight, Mitch Marner, as he looks to shine in the desert. We also include features on new Jets forward Jonathan Toews, Canadiens D-man Noah Dobson and more. In addition, we take a look at the top ‘new guys’ from each NHL division.

You can get it in print for free when you subscribe to The Hockey News at THN.com/Free today. All subscriptions include complete access to more than 76 years of articles at The Hockey News Archive.

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Four hundred forty-three times before, J.P. Crawford had crossed home plate as a member of the Seattle Mariners. But never quite like this.

This time, as Crawford approached the plate in the bottom of the 15th inning of ALDS Game 5 against the Detroit Tigers, he paused. Rather than rush across the plate to confirm the run scored as soon as possible, he slowed and looked down at the white pentagon in the dirt that had seemed like an impossible destination for both teams over the previous five hours. He held both arms in the air, helmet in hand, savoring the magical moment he was about to unlock.

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Then, he took a step and scored.

[Get more Seattle news: Mariners team feed]

Driven in by a hard-hit single to right field by Jorge Polanco with the bases loaded, Crawford represented the winning run for Seattle in its jaw-dropping, stomach-churning, hair-pulling, history-making, series-clinching 3-2 victory over Detroit to advance to the American League Championship Series for the first time since 2001. Polancoâ€s walk-off hit was the final act in a contest loaded with unforgettable sequences that combined to produce a postseason clash for the ages.

“We’ve talked about the fight all year long,†Seattle manager Dan Wilson said afterward. “To go 15 innings tonight, 15 rounds, so to speak, and to come out on top — that sure feels good.â€

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It took 4 hours, 58 minutes for the Tigers and Mariners to play 15 innings — the longest winner-take-all game in postseason history. Fifteen pitchers combined to throw 472 pitches, with the highest pitch count belonging to Tigers starter Tarik Skubal, whose 99 pitches produced 26 whiffs and 13 strikeouts in one of the more spectacular playoff pitching performances in recent memory — and one that somehow faded into the background as the ultra-close contest continued deep into the night.

“I feel like I pitched three days ago, if I’m being honest,†Seattle starter George Kirby said postgame.

Skubalâ€s sensational outing was the headlining performance in a game dominated by pitching on both sides; the two teams combined to hit .163 (16-for-98) while striking out 37 times. Before Polancoâ€s hit enabled Crawfordâ€s right cleat to touch home plate, just four runs had been mustered over the first 14 and a half frames, all of which required their own extraordinary sequences to come to be.

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Seattle struck first in the second inning courtesy of Josh Naylor, who reached out and poked a 100.2-mph sinker from Skubal well off the outside corner down the left-field line to put himself into scoring position. And while it was Naylorâ€s strength that enabled an extra-base hit on such a ridiculously uncomfortable-looking swing, it was his speed that shined next — or, perhaps more accurately, his baserunning acumen. Despite ranking as one of the slowest players in baseball, according to Statcastâ€s sprint speed, Naylor has become a basestealing fiend in 2025, frequently taking advantage of opponents who underestimate his willingness and ability to swipe bags.

And knowing that runs would be difficult to come by against Skubal — and recognizing that T-Mobile Park with the roof closed was far too loud for Skubal to hear his teammates alerting him that the runner was getting such a gigantic lead — Naylor took off for third and nabbed it successfully, making him a perfect 20-for-20 on stolen bases as a Mariner. Mitch Garver then drove in Naylor with a sacrifice fly that put the Mariners up 1-0 in the second inning.

Meanwhile, Seattle starter George Kirby was cruising in the early going, but he arrived at a predictable pivot point in the sixth inning, with Tigers slugger Kerry Carpenter coming to the plate with a runner on second after Javier Baez led off with a double. Carpenterâ€s home run against Kirby in Game 1 — his fifth against the pitcher in 11 plate appearances to that point — plus two more hits already in Game 5 ensured that Wilson called on lefty reliever Gabe Speier to handle Carpenter in this scenario.

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And that matchup promptly backfired, as Carpenter drilled Speierâ€s second pitch deep to center field for a stadium-silencing, two-run homer that made it 2-1 Detroit.

With Skubal still in the game — having struck out eight of 10 hitters since Garverâ€s sac fly, including a postseason-record seven in a row — the prospect of scoring another run with just four innings left seemed awfully daunting for Seattle. But Skubal left it all on the table in the sixth. His final pitch of the game was also his hardest: 100.9 mph right down the middle to blow away Cal Raleigh for his 13th strikeout. Skubal roared as he bounced off the mound toward the dugout.

“After the fifth, I checked in on him how he was doing physically and emotionally, and we both knew that he had one left,†Detroit manager A.J. Hinch said postgame. “He emptied his tank and obviously was emotional coming off the mound, and I think that signals exactly where we were in the game. He gave us everything he could.â€

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With that, Skubalâ€s night was over.

For everyone else, it was only just beginning.

As soon as Skubal departed, Seattle conjured a rally in the seventh against Detroit reliever Kyle Finnegan. A Polanco walk plus another Naylor hit put Polanco in scoring position for … Leo Rivas?

On his 28th birthday and with zero postseason plate appearances to his name — not to mention just 197 in the regular season — the switch-hitting utility infielder was called on to pinch-hit against lefty reliever Tyler Holton. Holton had entered after the Mariners announced lefty slugger Dominic Canzone would be pinch-hitting for Garver, but Wilson opted to burn Canzone and instead tab Rivas for the high-stakes spot and the chance to be the unlikeliest of heroes.

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And Rivas delivered. He smacked the second pitch from Holton into left field for a game-tying single, sending the crowd into euphoric disbelief while simultaneously (and unknowingly) settling the game into a stalemate of epic proportions.

Over the next seven-and-a-half scoreless innings, a stunning carousel of pitchers cycled through the ballgame for both teams, ranging from traditional high-leverage arms (Will Vest, Matt Brash, Andrés Muñoz, Eduard Bazardo) to versatile swingmen (Troy Melton, Keider Montero) to full-blown starting pitchers (Logan Gilbert, Jack Flaherty, Luis Castillo). All of these pitchers had already been asked to cover pivotal innings in this series against these same hitters, yet all of them were up to the task of continuing their efforts in a sudden-death scenario.

All of them, until Tommy Kahnle in the bottom of the 15th, put up zeroes.

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“It felt like it was a pretty quiet game, from an opportunity standpoint, until we got into extras,†Hinch said, “and then there were runners everywhere, and there were double plays, and thereâ€s caught stealing, and there’s bunts, and there’s guys picking up each other on errors or misplays.â€

Tigers closer Vest carved through the middle of Seattleâ€s lineup with ease. Gilbert, who starred for Seattle in his Game 3 start just three days earlier, made his first relief appearance since his sophomore year of college and provided two scoreless innings. Melton, Detroitâ€s Game 1 starter, was touching 100 just two days after throwing three scoreless innings in relief in Game 4. Bazardo, whoâ€d already pitched for the Mariners in the first four games of the series after 73 appearances in the regular season, recorded eight outs, two more than he had in any outing all year. Tigers starter Flaherty has barely pitched out of the bullpen in his career, and he delivered two hitless frames, navigating around three walks. Castillo, Seattleâ€s Game 2 starter, made his first relief cameo since he was in A-ball nearly a decade ago — and earned the win.

While Detroitâ€s cavalcade of hurlers led by Skubal unquestionably did their part, Seattleâ€s pitching staff was ever-so-slightly better, and their collective effort to preserve the tie and set the stage for Polancoâ€s walk-off will be remembered as one of the great triumphs in franchise history.

“You can’t say enough about the bullpen and two starters we had up there in the bullpen, just taking the ball and just running with it and not wanting to come out of the game, wanting to keep throwing pitches, keep throwing innings,†Wilson said postgame. “… They don’t want to leave the ballpark until they win. And tonight was that.

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“They didn’t want to leave the ballpark until they won, and they made it happen.â€

It was Crawford, though, who began the sequence that ensured the Mariners didnâ€t need to throw any more scoreless innings. He led off the bottom of the 15th with a single against Kahnle, scooping a 3-2 changeup into right field for his first hit of the game. Kahnle then plunked Randy Arozarena with his next pitch to move Crawford into scoring position. After a Raleigh flyout allowed Crawford to advance to third, Julio Rodriguez was intentionally walked to load the bases, with Detroit seeking a double play from Polanco after theyâ€d wiggled out of jams in the 12th and 13th.

But Polanco stayed on the changeup from Kahnle and laced it into right field for the game-winner, allowing Crawford to take the 90-foot journey home.

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“It was bound to happen at some point,†Kirby said later. “The more you keep letting us into the game, especially at home, you know, we’re going to find a way.â€

As Seattleâ€s longest-tenured player, Crawford knows as well as any what his winning run meant. His acquisition from Philadelphia via trade in December 2018 was a critical one in a series of transactions that marked the start of a rebuild. Crawford is the only current Mariner who endured the non-competitive lows of the 94-loss 2019 season. He raised his national profile by winning a Gold Glove in 2020, but the team was still quite bad. 2021 marked a huge step forward, as the team won 90 games, but their minus-51 run differential was a sobering indicator that the club was miles away from being a real contender.

In 2022, Crawford got his first taste of the spectacular highs and devastating lows of postseason baseball. Seattle ended its dreaded playoff drought and even won a wild-card series against Toronto, but the Mariners were emphatically swept out of the ALDS by the rival Astros. Their season ended in a game eerily similar to Fridayâ€s thriller: an epic marathon of prolific pitching in which scoring seemed impossible until one swing from Jeremy Peña delivered the ultimate gut punch in a 1-0 loss in 18 innings.

But this time was different. It had to be. After coming up painfully short of qualifying for the postseason the previous two seasons, the Mariners aggressively assembled a roster worthy of returning to baseballâ€s premier month. Urged in August by franchise icon Ichiro Suzuki to not take an opportunity like this for granted, the Mariners surged in September en route to their first division title since Ichiroâ€s rookie season in 2001 and home-field advantage in the ALDS — an advantage that proved vital as Seattle leaned into its core strength and pitcher-friendly ballpark while tossing 15 nearly flawless innings to punch its ticket to the ALCS.

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Four wins against the top-seeded Toronto Blue Jays now separate the Mariners from a place they’ve never been before. For all the ups and downs Crawford has experienced in his seven years as Seattleâ€s shortstop, they represent merely a fraction of this franchiseâ€s tortured history as the only major-league team that has never even appeared in the World Series, much less won one.

It was 30 years ago that Edgar Martinezâ€s iconic walk-off double defeated the Yankees to send the Mariners to the ALCS for the first time. That Martinezâ€s walk-off sustains as the premier franchise highlight in nearly a half-century of existence is a testament to the magic of the moment — and a reflection of how little Seattle has accomplished in three decades since. Several superstars have come and gone, with feats of individual brilliance and a few formidable ballclubs along the way. But only rarely has the World Series been remotely within reach. The ‘95 team faltered in the championship round. Back-to-back trips to the ALCS in 2000 and ’01 produced the same result. And then, a drought — thedrought. Sure, 2022 was a salve of sorts, but it was nowhere close to the ultimate prize.

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But in toppling the Tigers and advancing to Toronto — Game 1 is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET Sunday at Rogers Centre — the 2025 Mariners have arrived at a special opportunity. Their five grueling games against Detroit served as a reminder that nothing comes easy this time of year — and evidence that Seattle has the talent and resilience to succeed in these pressure-packed postseason affairs.

What happens next for the Mariners in their quest to finally reach the Fall Classic remains to be seen. But in emerging victorious on Friday — and giving the Seattle crowd a night to remember — they made sure that elusive goal is still within reach.

“That was an incredible win for them, which means it was an incredible loss for us,†Hinch said. “But I wish them well in the next round. They earned it, and that was an epic game.â€

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Oct 11, 2025, 01:05 AM ET

The 2025 American League Championship Series matchup is set!

Starting Sunday in Toronto, the No. 2 seed Seattle Mariners and No. 1 seed Toronto Blue Jays will clash with a trip to the World Series on the line.

Seattle outlasted the Detroit Tigers in a thrilling ALDS Game 5 on Friday night, two days after Toronto dispatched the AL East rival New York Yankees to get to the ALCS.

What has stood out about both teams so far? What does each side need to do to punch a ticket to the Fall Classic? And who are the X factors on each roster? Our ESPN MLB experts break it all down.

Note: Matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James’ formula for determining how “hot” or “cold” a team is at any given point; average is 72°.

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At last! Super-fans of 1977 expansion have been waiting for this LCS matchup since the early days of the Carter administration. The Blue Jays and Mariners came into existence at the same time, but they have never met with stakes like these in play. The M’s beat the Jays in a wild-card round matchup in 2022, but this is different.

The two strongest division champs in the AL are vying to end long World Series droughts. Toronto hasn’t won the title in 31 years, and Seattle has never won it.

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The great Willie Horton was among the first players to play for both franchises. Even though he’s best remembered as a Tiger and has a statue outside of Comerica Park, they should still let him throw out the first pitch in Seattle and Toronto. — Bradford Doolittle

No. 1 seed Blue Jays’ concern level:Appropriately alert. Toronto has the better seed and home-field edge, but Seattle has been playing slightly better in the latter stages of the season, and the run differentials are virtually the same.

What’s really exciting is the star power on both teams and that the standouts have been shining in October. Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh and the scorching Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have played huge roles in the teams getting this far.

Both teams have leaned on the long ball for scoring, getting more than half their runs on homers. It’s a really close matchup that could be decided by Andres Munoz, Seattle’s edge at the back of the bullpen. — Doolittle

Toronto Blue Jays

Odds of advancing: 55.1%

Team temperature: 96°

What stood out most as the Blue Jays rolled past the Yankees in the ALDS?

Castillo:The relentlessness of their lineup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. starred from start to finish, but Toronto received contributions from seemingly everyone manager John Schneider put in there. Four players not named Guerrero recorded two hits in Game 1. Daulton Varsho had four extra-base hits, and Ernie Clement went 3-for-4 in Game 2. Clement added another four hits in Game 3.

The Blue Jays were the toughest team to strike out during the regular season, and they registered more home runs than strikeouts in the first two games at Rogers Centre, where they’ve thrived all season. It helped that Playoff Vladdy Jr. surfaced, going 9-for-17 with three home runs, including a monumental grand slam in Game 2.

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Schoenfield:Have to go with Trey Yesavage’s absolutely dominant performance in Game 2, when he made his fourth career start and held the Yankees hitless for 5â…“ innings while striking out 11. The Yankees had no chance against him. Other than the length of the start — the Blue Jays pulled him with a big lead — it was as dominant a postseason outing as we’ve seen in a long time.

His over-the-top delivery creates an unusual look for batters, and he’s throwing 95-96 mph with a slider and wipeout splitter. Hard to believe there were 19 players selected ahead of him in the draft in 2024.

Why will (or won’t) it work against the Mariners in the ALCS?

Castillo:It’ll work at Rogers Centre because it has always worked at Rogers Centre this season. The Blue Jays scored 431 runs at home during the regular season, the third most in the majors. In the ALDS, they scored 23 in two games in Toronto. The Blue Jays dominate pitchers north of the border. The question is whether it’ll work in Seattle. T-Mobile Park is a difficult place to hit. Mariners pitchers posted a 3.28 ERA at home this season. But the Blue Jays scored 21 runs in a three-game sweep of the Mariners in May. Maybe their offense will travel.

Schoenfield:It will … if he throws strikes. He did against the Yankees, walking just one batter in his start, but in the minors, he walked 41 batters in 98 innings. The Mariners have a mix of patient hitters (Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena) and hitters who chase (Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez), but like the Yankees, the Mariners also whiff a lot.

Which one player is the X factor who can make (or break) Toronto’s World Series hopes?

Castillo:Trey Yesavage. Asking a rookie with four major league starts to continue dominating deep into October is a lot, but the Blue Jays lack that clear premier ace. Yesavage has the potential to supply it. Not only is his stuff good enough, he’s different enough to flummox even the most experienced hitters. His release point and arm angle are among the highest in baseball, making his fastball-splitter combination especially difficult to solve. Then, there’s his slider, which often runs arm side instead of the usual glove side. Toronto has been careful with the 22-year-old right-hander. He hasn’t thrown more than 94 pitches in a game this season, which started for him in Low-A. Now, he’s on the sport’s grandest stage and could be the difference in October.

Schoenfield:Shane Bieber. Kevin Gausman and Yesavage looked great, but given a 6-1 lead in Game 3, Bieber got knocked out in the third inning. Given how poorly Toronto’s bullpen pitched after that, maybe it was a bit of a quick hook, but it’s clear the Blue Jays will need all three of these starters to pitch well, given the bullpen didn’t post a bunch of zeroes against the Yankees. The Blue Jays’ ability to put the ball in play — they had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors — means they should continue to score some runs, so the question is whether they can keep enough runs off the scoreboard.

Seattle Mariners

Odds of advancing: 44.9%

Team temperature: 89°

What stood out most as the Mariners beat the Tigers in the ALDS?

Gonzalez: The effectiveness of the starting rotation, which should come as no surprise. George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller — before the fifth inning, at least — all pitched well in the ALDS. The hope is that Bryan Woo, the Mariners’ best starter this season, will return from a pectoral injury for the ALCS, taking this rotation to yet another level.

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The Mariners feel really good about their back-end relievers and believe this is the deepest lineup they’ve fielded in this era. But this team still revolves around its starting pitching — a unit that dominated throughout 2024 and finally started to round into form again in the stretch run of this season. The starters need to consistently provide six and seven innings so that manager Dan Wilson doesn’t have to venture outside of Gabe Speier, Matt Brash and Andres Munoz late in games. That’s the formula.

Doolittle:Seattle’s lineup depth is really impressive, even without a standout designated hitter. It’s eye-popping to see Eugenio Suarez hitting in the six-hole and J.P. Crawford at No. 9. It’s a group that hits for power, steals bases and strikes out at a much less problematic rate than the Mariners lineups we’re used to. Raleigh and Rodriguez make for such a dynamic one-two stack in the batting order. The R&R Boys.

Why will (or won’t) it work against the Blue Jays in the ALCS?

Gonzalez: No team struck out less often than the Blue Jays this season. Only the Yankees and Dodgers finished with a higher OPS. And when the playoffs arrived, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ernie Clement and Daulton Varsho slugged a combined 1.000 in four ALDS games. This offense operates at a different level than the Tigers’ — and could have Bo Bichette back for this next round.

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Gilbert and Woo pitched pretty well against the Blue Jays this season (five earned runs in 11 2/3 innings). Castillo and Miller (15 earned runs in 15 innings) did not. But these two teams have not seen each other since May. The Mariners’ rotation is not the same as it was then.

Doolittle:A deep lineup plays against anybody, but there’s one factor that works in Seattle’s favor. With Trey Yesavage emerging for Toronto, the Blue Jays have four key hurlers who can dominate with splitters, the breakout pitch of the 2025 postseason. (Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Seranthony Dominguez and Jeff Hoffman are the four.)

The Mariners were in the middle of the pack in hitting splitters during the season, but they had two hitters who crushed them. And it’s the R&R Boys — Raleigh had 1.159 OPS against splitters and Rodriguez 1.091.

Which one player is the X factor who can make (or break) Seattle’s World Series hopes?

Gonzalez: Randy Arozarena. The Mariners inserted Arozarena at the top of the lineup after they acquired Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor at the trade deadline, and Arozarena has struggled mightily ever since. He showed some flashes in the ALDS, but the Mariners need “Playoff Randy” — the one who took over during the 2020 postseason and became a sensation while playing for Team Mexico in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. If he gets going ahead of Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez, the Mariners’ offense will be scary.

Doolittle: Matt Brash. Well, that’s not fair, as Brash is good, and I picked his name as an avatar for Seattle’s middle relief crew. If the Mariners’ roster has a soft underbelly, it’s the non-closing part of the bullpen. It’s not a bad group, but with a deep, productive lineup and a star closer in Munoz, plus excellent starting pitching, it might well be Brash, Eduard Bazardo, Gabe Speier and Carlos Vargas who determine if the Mariners can finally play in a World Series.

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October has delivered for baseball fans, and now we’re down to one Game 5 in the divisional round of the MLB playoffs.

The victor of the Chicago Cubs-Milwaukee Brewers matchup on Saturday (8:08 ET, TBS) will face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS, which begins Monday. The ALCS between the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays begins Sunday in Toronto.

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Here’s a look at the schedules for the ALCS and NLCS:

ALCS

No. 2 Seattle Mariners vs. No. 1 Toronto Blue Jays

Schedule, TV times, broadcast networks (all times ET)

Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12 — Mariners at Blue Jays, 8:03 p.m., Fox
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13 — Mariners at Blue Jays, 5:03 p.m. if Brewers advance to NLCS/4:38 p.m. if Cubs advance to NLCS, Fox and FS1
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15 — Blue Jays at Mariners, TBD, Fox and FS1
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16 — Blue Jays at Mariners, TBD, Fox and FS1
Game 5*: Friday, Oct. 17 — Blue Jays at Mariners, TBD, Fox and FS1
Game 6*: Sunday, Oct. 19 — Mariners at Blue Jays, TBD, Fox and FS1
Game 7*: Monday, Oct. 20 — Mariners at Blue Jays, TBD, Fox and FS1

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NLCS

No. 3 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers/No. 4 Chicago Cubs

Schedule, TV times, broadcast networks (all times ET)

Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13 — Dodgers at Brewers OR Cubs at Dodgers, 8:08 p.m. if Brewers advance/7:08 p.m. if Cubs advance, TBS, truTV and HBO Max
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14 — Dodgers at Brewers OR Cubs at Dodgers, 8:08 p.m., TBS, truTV and HBO Max
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16 — Brewers at Dodgers OR Dodgers at Cubs, TBD, TBS
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17 — Brewers at Dodgers OR Dodgers at Cubs, TBD, TBS
Game 5*: Saturday, Oct. 18 — Brewers at Dodgers OR Dodgers at Cubs, TBD, TBS
Game 6*: Monday, Oct. 20 — Dodgers at Brewers OR Cubs at Dodgers, TBD, TBS
Game 7*: Tuesday, Oct. 21 — Dodgers at Brewers OR Cubs at Dodgers, TBD, TBS

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World Series (best of seven)

Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5*: Wednesday, Oct. 29
Game 6*: Friday, Oct. 31
Game 7*: Saturday, Nov. 1

(*if necessary)

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As the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrated clinching their seventh trip to the NLCS in the past 10 seasons, and most of the Philadelphia Phillies had already begun making their way towards the dugout, Orion Kerkering came out of his hunched-over stance and was met by his catcher, J.T. Realmuto.

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The 24-year-old relief pitcher had just thrown away the third out in the bottom of the 11th inning, which would have extended the game and the Phillies’ season. Now, he stood on the mound in stunned disbelief at what just happened. A simple ground ball back to him should have led to an easy play. Instead, the Dodgers won 2-1.

Kerkering wasn’t left feeling alone for too long. Realmuto shepherded him off the mound and the two were soon greeted by outfielder Nick Castellanos, who had sprinted in from right field, to try and console his teammate.

“I just told him to keep his head up,†Castellanos said afterward, via MLB.com. “And I wanted to be next to him while he walked off the field, just so he knows he’s not alone in that moment.â€

The Los Angeles Dodgers celebrate their walk-off 11th inning victory over the Philadelphia Phillies to advance to the 2025 NLCS. (Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)

(MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images via Getty Images)

As the three reached the Philadelphia dugout, Phillies manager Rob Thomson was there at the top of the steps to greet Kerkering with a simple message he hopes resonates beyond this season.

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“[I said to] just keep his head up,” Thomson said. “He just got caught up in the moment a little bit. Coming down the stretch there, he pitched so well for us. I feel for him because he’s putting it all on his shoulders. But we win as a team, and we lose as a team.”

Kerkering said Thomson’s message was similar to one that other teammates gave him after the game and that “it’s baseball. S*** happens.”

A fifth round draft pick by the Phillies in 2022, Kerkering broke into the big leagues in 2023, but wasn’t a regular option out of the bullpen until the following season. He’s made 136 appearances for the Phillies and sports a 1.23 WHIP, 2.79 ERA and 145 strikeouts in 126 innings pitched. The Huntington Beach native has earned his place on the roster and his teammates’ support proves that.

“It means a lot. It shows they care a lot. Just means everything, for sure,” Kerkering said.

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Friday begins a long four-month offseason until spring training 2026 begins. Kerkering will have a lot of time to think about how this season ended, but he was continually reminded by his teammates to not let one play define him and use this moment for good.

“Hopefully it’s the start of a long career,†Kerkering said. “Just keep it in the back of my head that this really f****** sucks right now, but hopefully, keep pushing and get over this hump and keep pushing.â€

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The Buffalo Sabres†2025-26 regular-season is here at last, and the Sabres would certainly like to win their first game – a home game against the New York Rangers Thursday night – an analysis of their schedule tells Sabres fans they need to buckle down and get ready for a true test of this team, right out of the starting block.

No matter what happens against the Rangers Thursday, thereâ€s no let-up for the Sabres, because they donâ€t have a break inschedule for the next 20 games. Legitimately, there are 19 more teams after the Rangers that Buffalo could plausibly lose to.

Need evidence? Here you go: after Thursdayâ€s game, the Sabres are taking on the Boston Bruins – the same Bruins who are determined to make a playoff push after being bitten hard by the injury bug last season. Boston has a new coach, some new players, and returning stars including winger David Pastrnak, defenseman Charlie McAvoy and goalie Jeremy Swayman. They could quickly snuff out Buffaloâ€s momentum if thatâ€s what the Bruins have after Game 1.

Meanwhile, after that, the Sabres take on the Colorado Avalanche, Ottawa Senators and defending Stanley Cup champion-Florida Panthers. Buffalo canâ€t afford to let those teams overpower them. And after those three games, Buffalo will square off against the Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings, Toronto Maple Leafs (twice) and Columbus Blue Jackets in their first 10 games this season.

All of those teams – especially the particularly-desperate Red Wings and developing Canadiens and Blue Jackets – are going to give the Sabres a hard fight for the two standing points night-in and night-out.

Will Sabres Have Any Individual Award-Winners This Season?
Full disclosure: the Buffalo Sabres aren’t particularly interested in the NHL’s individual awards. But who’s kidding who — you always like to perform well, and that’s somthing  the league de facto acknowledges by handing out end-of-season honours.

But thatâ€s only the half of it. Buffalo will start its second stretch of 10 games against the Bruins (again), then the high-octane Washington Capitals, followed by the Utah Mammoth (twice), St. Louis Blues, Carolina Hurricanes, Avalanche (again), Red Wings (again), Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames. Buffalo canâ€t afford a soft effort against any of those teams.

It isnâ€t until they play the Chicago Blackhawks on Nov. 21 that you can say the Sabres have a ‘gimme†game. That means thereâ€s a full quarter of the season immediately ahead that legitimately could go one way or another for the Sabres. A solid effort to kick things off against the Rangers is something that would set an immediate tone for Buffalo, and to be honest, weâ€re not sure how this Sabres team will react when confronted with adversity.

That said, the slate is clean for Buffalo, as it is with all teams. But one way or another, Buffalo is going to send a message out of the gate. Either they impress people with their growth as a group, or they buckle under expectation and have to play catch-up the rest of the way this year.

Do The Math, And You’ll See Why Sabres Are A Playoff Longshot

Thereâ€s really no inbetween for the Sabres, is there? Either they make the playoffs and fire back at their cynics, or they fail to make the playoffs and the organization faces drastic on-and-off-ice consequences. Make it to the playoffs, and you get to keep your job; miss the playoffs, nobodyâ€s safe.

Itâ€s that simple. And the way Buffalo plays its next six weeks will go a long way toward determing their fate this season

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