Browsing: Playoffs

Oct 20, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

It all comes down to Game 7 in the American League Championship Series — with a trip to the World Series on the line.

The Toronto Blue Jays cruised to victory over the Seattle Mariners in a must-win Game 6 on Sunday night to keep their championship aspirations alive and force Monday’s win-or-go-home ALCS finale, with the winner set to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Fall Classic.

Will Toronto finish off the comeback, or will Seattle punch its ticket to its first World Series appearance? We asked our MLB experts to answer seven questions that will decide Game 7 — plus a bonus one looking forward to how the AL pennant winner could match up against the reigning champions.

1. How much will home-field advantage matter for Toronto in Game 7?

Jorge Castillo:It doesn’t hurt. The crowds at Rogers Centre down the stretch of the regular season and into October have been electric. Players have repeatedly complimented the atmosphere. But the Mariners won Games 1 and 2 in Toronto. Those crowds were raucous and it didn’t matter.

Buster Olney: It could mean nothing; the Mariners know they can win in Toronto, as they did in Games 1 and 2. But I do think that getting a lead will be important, because if Seattle falls behind by two or three runs, the challenge of winning one final game at Rogers Centre will be made more difficult by the bonkers crowd.

2. The Mariners have had vibes on their side all season long. How much will Seattle’s ability to keep finding a way matter in Game 7?

Jeff Passan:Vibes take a team only so far. The Mariners are here because of their starting pitching and ability to hit home runs — and they need George Kirby to avoid another disastrous start and the offense to chill with the strikeouts. In Game 3, Kirby got shelled for eight runs, half of which came on three home runs. He instead needs to channel his last win-or-go-home game, when he throttled Detroit for five innings in the division series.

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While Seattle has outhomered the Blue Jays in the ALCS, its 28.1% strikeout rate is not good, and Shane Bieber, on the mound for Toronto, will rely heavily on spin — so that happens to play right into his wheelhouse. Both teams are worn down, and getting an early lead would go a long way toward getting the Mariners’ offense right.

Olney:After Game 6, the Mariners talked about how their energy is good and that coming back is part of their identity. But it’s much more important for Seattle to play a clean game — which Julio Rodriguez mentioned after Sunday’s loss. The Mariners made many mistakes early in Game 6, with defensive errors from Rodriguez and Eugenio Suarez and a baserunning mistake by J.P. Crawford. The Blue Jays consistently put the ball in play and pressure the defense, and Seattle has to respond better to survive.

3. Which team has the Game 7 pitching advantage, and why?

David Schoenfield:Slight edge overall to the Blue Jays, mostly based on how the pitching matchup played out in Game 3, when Bieber pitched well (six innings, four hits, two runs, eight strikeouts, 16 swinging strikes) and Kirby did not (four innings, eight runs, three home runs, nine swinging strikes). The Mariners have the late-game edge with Andres Munoz, who will have two days of rest after not pitching in Game 6; Blue Jays closer Jeff Hoffman threw 35 pitches Sunday.

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The Mariners do have some early long relief options available in Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo (who threw just 48 pitches in his Game 4 start), but Castillo has been terrible on the road and Woo is an unknown risk, pitching on two days of rest coming off an injury. Look for Kevin Gausman to be a bullpen option for the Blue Jays. Indeed, the Jays would probably like to use Bieber, Gausman, Louis Varland and Hoffman and go no deeper in their pen than that. If someone else gets in the game, though, the Mariners have a chance.

Castillo: The starting pitching edge goes to Toronto for the reasons David presented, but the unknown variable here is Bryan Woo. The All-Star right-hander was Seattle’s ace during the regular season, but a pectoral injury has limited him to those two innings in Game 5. If he can give the Mariners any real, effective length, I think the overall advantage goes to Seattle with Andrés Muñoz also on three days’ rest. Woo is the best pitcher in this series when healthy. He could be the difference.

4. Which player MUST deliver for Seattle to win?

Schoenfield:Kirby. Through six ALCS games, Bryce Miller is the only Mariners starter who has had a good game — and he was the worst of the group in the regular season. Even with two solid efforts from Miller, the rotation has a 7.33 ERA in this series, allowing a .310 average and .993 OPS. Kirby doesn’t have to go deep — and won’t be expected to — but Seattle needs four or five strong innings from him.

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Castillo: Since David went with Kirby, I’ll go with Cal Raleigh. The AL MVP candidate has been Seattle’s best player all year, from the regular season through the playoffs, on both sides of the ball. So it was strange to see him have such a rough Game 6, going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, a GIDP, and a throwing error that allowed Toronto’s final run to score. It’s hard to imagine the Mariners winning Game 7 without some contributions from Raleigh.

5. Which player MUST deliver for Toronto to move on?

Passan:In the Blue Jays’ six wins this postseason, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 15-for-26 with five home runs, 10 RBIs and one strikeout in 30 plate appearances. He is a human litmus test and a reminder that as Vlad Jr. goes, so go the Blue Jays. Getting a good start from Bieber would help plenty — Toronto’s bullpen this postseason has been so helter skelter, relying on any reliever for too long is inviting disaster — but amid the endless cycling of pitchers expected in Game 7, the players with the opportunities to do the most will be on the offensive side. And in the ALCS, no one has been better than Guerrero, who has struck out just twice in 47 plate appearances this postseason.

Olney: Bieber, due to all of the uncertainty presented by the Toronto bullpen. It’s unclear how much Hoffman can provide following his Game 6 outing, and while Varland is trusted, he’s also going to be working on back-to-back days. Jays manager John Schneider talked before Game 6 about possibly using Max Scherzer out of the bullpen, or maybe Chris Bassitt, but it’s difficult to know exactly what he’s going to get from either.

The Jays traded for Bieber at the deadline in the hope that he could pitch meaningful games for them, and it’s hard to imagine a situation more important to a franchise playing for the opportunity to go to the World Series for the first time in 32 years.

6. Call your shot: Who is one unexpected player you think could decide Game 7?

Schoenfield:Ernie Clement has become less surprising as the postseason has rolled along, as he’s hitting .447. Remarkably, he and Guerrero have struck out just twice each in 10 postseason games. That sums up Toronto’s advantage at the plate: These guys put the ball in play. Considering Guerrero might not see a pitch any closer than Manitoba in this game, the players coming up behind him might have to do the damage — and Clement is one of those who will get RBI opportunities.

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Passan:Crawford bats in the bottom third of the Mariners’ lineup and has only two hits in the ALCS. So why him? Well, he’s due, for one, but beyond that, Crawford puts together excellent plate appearances every time up — his 4.5 pitches per is the second-highest number among regulars — and he has the lowest strikeout rate among any Seattle player this series.

During the regular season, Crawford’s high-leverage numbers were off the charts: .340/.476/.620. He craves moments that matter. And none in the history of the Mariners franchise matters as much as a Game 7 with a chance to go to the World Series.

7. And really call your shot: Which team will be the last one standing in this ALCS?

Castillo: I’ve written this before and I’ll write it again: I picked Seattle to win the World Series before the season began so I’m not going to deviate from that even though the Blue Jays have been the better team since dropping the first two games of this series. Seattle rebounds with a 6-4 win.

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Passan: The coin-flip nature of postseason baseball is personified by the record of home teams in winner-takes-all games: 71-67. And considering how back-and-forth this series has been, either team emerging would make plenty of sense. The idea that Kirby and Bieber both shove is very realistic, which would make this a battle of the bullpens. With Andrés MuÅ„oz able to work multiple innings after two days’ rest and Hoffman coming off a 35-pitch outing, though, the edge tilts ever so slightly in Seattle’s favor. The Mariners advance to their first World Series with a 3-2 win.

Bonus: Which team should the Dodgers want to see move on — or is L.A. simply too good for it to matter?

Passan: Simply because Los Angeles would have home-field advantage and less strenuous travel, the answer is Seattle. In terms of talent, as the ALCS has illustrated, the Blue Jays and Mariners are about as evenly matched as it gets. The Blue Jays’ lack of an effective left-handed reliever against a Dodgers lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy would work decidedly in Los Angeles’ favor.

Similarly, the Mariners have difficulty hitting high-octane fastballs. Their regular-season OPS against 97-mph-plus heaters was .639 (compared to Toronto’s MLB-best .766), and while they have hit four home runs off such pitches in the postseason, they remain susceptible. In the end, whoever advances faces a juggernaut that will be heavily favored and rightfully so.

Olney:In speaking with some evaluators with other teams, there is near unanimity in the opinion that the Blue Jays would present a better challenge to L.A. because of the nature of their offense. They can put the ball in play more consistently and, of course, have Guerrero; with all due respect to all of the future Hall of Famers in the Dodgers’ lineup, Guerrero would be the most dangerous hitter in any series he played in right now.

We’ll see that in Game 7, when it seems very likely the Mariners will pitch around him just about every opportunity they have — an appropriate response when facing a guy who has more homers (six) than strikeouts (two) in the postseason.

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LOS ANGELES — It takes just four words on repeat and a thumping beat to electrify Dodger Stadium.

Báilalo, Rocky. Suéltale, Rocky. Dance, Rocky. Let loose, Rocky.

It wasn’t long ago that the ninth inning was a time of apprehension for the Dodgers, who experienced the extremes of bullpen volatility this year. They were walked off in four of their last seven regular-season losses, and the other three were charged to relievers who gave up the lead in the eighth inning or later.

Sasaki has changed that, converting three saves and allowing only one run in eight innings as the unlikely postseason closer. No longer is there an air of malaise as the bullpen gate opens ahead of the ninth. As “Bailalo Rocky” blares over the speakers, the Dodgers’ faithful is swept up by the music, rife with anticipation to see Sasaki lock down a win.

The energy is so contagious that it spreads to those in the Dodgers’ dugout, who can typically be seen pounding the rail in time with the beat as Sasaki warms up on the mound.

As many have asked where this resurgent version of Sasaki came from, seemingly out of nowhere, still others have been curious about why he chose his entrance song.

“That was actually MiggyRo’s idea,” Sasaki said in Japanese on Thursday. “Iâ€m really happy the fans are enjoying it.”

An electric entrance song is not the only thing Miguel Rojas has given Sasaki. The veteran infielder also gave up his No. 11 for the rookie when Sasaki chose to sign with the Dodgers this past offseason, hoping it would help him feel comfortable in his first year in the big leagues.

Back in February, the remix of “Bailalo Rocky” by Dj Roderick and Dj Jose Gonzalez was released. Rojas would play it around Sasaki during Spring Training, urging him to use the song as his entrance music.

It took a couple of months, but Sasaki actually did warm up to it once while he was still in the rotation. It was April 26, which ended up being his last home start before he sustained the impingement in his right shoulder that kept him out of big league action for more than four months.

The Dodgers’ dugout loved it, just as they do nowadays. But it felt like a jarring choice at the time, a little incongruous with the version of Sasaki who was working with diminished velocity, command and confidence.

It much better suits the version of Sasaki who returned from injury and shifted seamlessly into a new relief role in late September.

“It’s been special,” Rojas. “I feel like it just fits him really well.”

Besides the fact that “Rocky” sounds like “Roki,” the song matches the attitude that Sasaki brings to the mound. With his four-seamer blazing and his splitter dancing, he all but dares opposing batters to hit his best stuff (and most of the time, they can’t).

It’s a far cry from how Sasaki looked early on, when he showed flashes of elite stuff but often pitched as if he were simply trying to find his footing. He didn’t make it out of the second inning in his first home start and was shown looking visibly emotional in the dugout afterward.

Sasaki is in command now, in multiple senses. He has a hold over those in the crowd, who often keep the energy going when his music dies down by chanting his name.

“I hadnâ€t been able to pitch well at Dodger Stadium before, so honestly, I didnâ€t have the best memories of it,” Sasaki said. “But now that Iâ€m getting results as a reliever, the view from the mound looks completely different.”

Sasaki’s move to the bullpen is not permanent, so as the Dodgers vie for four more wins to defend their World Series title, we may be seeing the last of him as a closer for the time being.

It’s been a brief stint in relief for Sasaki, but his impact has been such that Rojas wants to see even more hype to go along with “Bailalo Rocky.”

“I think he deserves a video and the lights go down and all that stuff,” Rojas said. “I think that’s the next step for him.”

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  David SchoenfieldOct 19, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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  • Covers MLB for ESPN.com
  • Former deputy editor of Page 2
  • Been with ESPN.com since 1995

Are we having fun yet? Friday was one of the most unforgettable days ever seen in the playoffs, with Eugenio Suarez’s go-ahead grand slam rocking T-Mobile Park and putting the Seattle Mariners one win away from the World Series, and then Shohei Ohtani’s historic three-homer, 10-strikeout performance that goes down as perhaps the single greatest individual performance in postseason history.

Let’s call it a top-five day of all time and add this to our list of future projects to research. Meanwhile, with Ohtani’s Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series, we’re left with one game Sunday: The Seattle Mariners vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, Game 6 of the ALCS.

Let’s dig into it with some of the keys to watch with the remaining World Series spot at stake.

Guerrero is having a monster postseason, hitting .457/.524/.971 with five home runs. After a hitless first two games of the ALCS, he did his best Roy Hobbs impersonation in Seattle, going 7-for-11 with five extra-base hits. He has just two strikeouts in 42 postseason plate appearances, and he has had 15 balls in play register over 100 mph, including six of his seven hits at T-Mobile.

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“He’s a special player, a special talent, an awesome guy to be around,” teammate Ernie Clement said. “He’s earned every bit of success that he’s having, and I couldn’t be happier for him. Just really proud of the work he’s put in. To do it on the biggest stages, it’s a testament to his work.”

In Game 5, the Mariners intentionally walked Guerrero twice, once in the fourth inning with nobody out and a runner on second base — his second intentional walk of the postseason with nobody out, the first time that has happened since 2016 — and then in the seventh with two outs and a runner on second.

The Mariners escaped both jams, but they’re playing with fire — and that’s whether they pitch to him or whether they put him on. It’s certainly not an easy decision for manager Dan Wilson with Guerrero so locked in, but eventually one of those intentional walks is going to backfire and potentially lead to a big inning.

Toronto’s challenge: Getting Cal Raleigh out

Raleigh is following up his historic 60-homer season with an outstanding postseason of his own, hitting .333/.435/.692 with four home runs, the one Mariner who has provided consistent offense. Suarez’s slam was the moment for the history books in Game 5, but that moment might never happen if Raleigh doesn’t first tie the game leading off the eighth inning with his towering home run to left that looked high enough to soar over the Space Needle.

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“Oh my god, that ball took forever to get down,” said teammate Bryan Woo. “I can’t say that I’m surprised anymore, but he just continues to impress and show up in big moments.”

The Blue Jays have mostly gone right after Raleigh, who has drawn three walks in five games, one of those intentional. That included the game-tying home run when Brendon Little fell behind 2-0 but came in with a fastball — a little too much down the middle.

“A lot of times I get out there and just start swinging and try to hit something hard,” Raleigh said, “but I was patient waiting for my pitch there and understanding to let the game come to me, try and make solid contact, don’t need a home run, don’t need to try to hit a ball 500 feet, just do something good and adrenaline will usually take over in those moments.”

Toronto’s potential secret hero: Ernie Clement

Following the Blue Jays’ win in Game 3, Clement called himself “probably the worst hitter in baseball” a couple years ago. He was referring to 2022, when he hit .184/.243/.209 in 179 plate appearances with the Guardians and Athletics — which led to the Guardians letting him go, and then the A’s, with the Blue Jays claiming him on waivers during spring training in 2023.

The one-time worst hitter in baseball played 157 games this season, had his best season at the plate with a .277/.313/.398 line and 46 extra-base hits, and is a Gold Glove finalist at two positions — third base (where he started 66 games) and the utility slot (he also started games at second base, shortstop and first base).

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He has followed that up with an exceptional postseason, hitting .429 with 15 hits, the most for a player in his first nine career postseason games since Daniel Murphy in 2015. He attributes his success to learning from his failures — “I’ve had quite a few of those,” he said — and understanding that he’s at his best when he’s swinging often, even if that goes against the modern convention of waiting for your pitch.

“I just started to lean into my strength a little bit, which is putting the bat on the ball. I kind of tried to work the count a little bit and maybe try to draw some walks and hit for more power, and that’s just not really my game. Over the last couple years, I’ve learned to just make it hard on the opposing pitchers with my ability to get hits on pitchers’ pitches, and I’ve just really been more aggressive.”

Seattle’s potential secret hero: Bryan Woo

The Mariners’ top starter in the regular season had been sidelined since Sept. 19 due to a right pectoral strain. He wasn’t on the ALDS roster but finally made his postseason debut in Game 5, pitching two innings in relief in Game 5. Alejandro Kirk greeted him with a ringing double and then Clement drove him with an RBI single, although bounced back with a scoreless seventh, getting out of that jam when Kirk tapped back to the mound.

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It wasn’t necessarily a stellar effort — he didn’t record a strikeout and had just two swings and misses out of 28 pitches — but it was good enough. He did enjoy running through the “flames” as he left the bullpen for the mound. “Yeah, I told Logan [Gilbert] when he did it the other day, he looked like the coolest he’s ever looked, so I tried to replicate that.”

Woo said he’ll have to wait and see how he feels over the next couple of days, and he isn’t stretched back out to start yet but said “I’d love to contribute the next couple of games.” Given Wilson’s quick hook with Luis Castillo in Game 4 and relatively quick hook with Miller in Game 5, Woo’s potential to throw multiple innings to help bridge the gap to closer Andres Munoz looms large, whether it’s in Game 6 or Game 7.

Key stat to watch: 28 vs. 49

The Blue Jays have struck out just 28 times in the first five games compared to 49 for the Mariners. The Blue Jays had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors in the regular season and have been striking out even less often during the playoffs (just 14.4% of the time in the ALCS). That hasn’t actually produced much more hard contact in this series, however, as the Jays have 53 balls in play classified as hard-hit balls (95-plus mph) while the Mariners have hit 51. The Jays have 14 at 105-plus mph, and the Mariners have 15.

Still, on Friday everything went the Mariners’ way.

“To be honest, we dodged a lot of bullets today,” Raleigh said. There was a the double play on a line drive to first baseman Josh Naylor, Leo Rivas made a nice leaping grab of a line drive up the middle, Raleigh turned Clement’s ball in front of the plate into another double play and Randy Arozarena made a leaping grab at the wall in the eighth to rob Clement of a potential home run.

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Over the long haul, swing-and-miss is still a good thing for pitching staffs, and Seattle’s hasn’t generated nearly as much as Toronto’s: The Jays have swung and missed 70 times compared to 102 for the Mariners.

Logan Gilbert, Seattle’s Game 6 starter, was a big swing-and-miss pitcher during the regular season with the third highest strikeout rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings, behind only Zack Wheeler and Chris Sale. He lasted just three innings in his Game 2 start, however, generating just five swinging strikes in 58 pitches. The Mariners will hope that poor effort was a result of starting on two days of rest after pitching two innings in relief in the 15-inning win over Detroit in the ALDS.

Likewise, Trey Yesavage, Toronto’s rookie starter who has pitched just 23.1 innings in the big leagues, will try to find his form from his ALDS start against the Yankees when he struck out 11 in 5.1 hitless innings. The Mariners got to him for five runs in four innings in Game 2 as he walked three, and Julio Rodriguez hit a three-run homer in the first inning.

The key decision: When to go to the bullpens

Both managers have deployed quick hooks with the starters — and both saw those moves backfire in the three games in Seattle. In Game 4, Wilson pulled Luis Castillo in the third inning after just 48 pitches, the shortest start of Castillo’s career, and went early to his high-leverage relievers, but Gabe Speier walked in one of Castillo’s runs, and Matt Brash threw a wild pitch to let in one of the two runs Speier allowed. Wilson doubled in Game 5, pulling Bryce Miller after a leadoff single in the fifth even though he had yet to allow a run. Brash let that inherited runner score, and then Bryan Woo later allowed another run.

Blue Jays manager John Schneider’s decision in Game 5 might have been even more questionable, leaving closer Jeff Hoffman in the pen in the eighth while going first to Brendon Little and then to Seranthony Dominguez, and they combined to allow five runs in blowing the 2-1 lead. Hoffman never got in the game.

Little came on and gave up the home run to Raleigh and then walked the next two batters.

“We talked about it all series,” Schneider said after the game. “Little’s been one of our best pitchers in big spots. Tough guy to elevate. Cal’s a really good hitter. I get it, man. After that, you got to settle down and throw strikes too. So that’s been part of Little’s game. So has strikeouts. Again, I trust every single guy on this roster. It’s hard. No one feels worse than Little, no one feels worse than Ser right now, or me. But I trust every single guy on this roster. Today it didn’t work out, but we’ve won two games in a row a whole lot this year.”

That’s where we’re at: The Blue Jays need to win two to reach their first World Series since 1993. The Mariners need one to reach their first. Ohtani and the Dodgers await. Let’s play some ball.

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The 2025 MLS playoff picture is set.

Lionel Messi posted a Decision Day hat trick against Nashville SC to win the 2025 Golden Boot and help Inter Miami secure home-field advantage for the postseason.

Messi scored 29 goals in his second MLS season to become the first Inter Miami player to win the award.

Inter Miami is now set to rematch with Nashville in the first round of the 2025 MLB playoffs. Here’s a look at the full bracket after Saturday’s final matches.

1. Philadelphia Union vs. Eastern Wild Card winner (8. Chicago Fire or 9. Orlando City)

4. Charlotte FC vs. 5. New York City FC

2. FC Cincinnati vs. 7. Columbus Crew

3. Inter Miami vs. 6. Nashville SC

1. San Diego FC vs. Western Wild Card winner (8. Portland Timbers or 9. Real Salt Lake)

4. Minnesota United vs. 5. Seattle Sounders

2. Vancouver Whitecaps vs. 7. FC Dallas

The first round will feature a “Hell is Real” rematch between FC Cincinnati and the Columbus Crew.

The rivalry, named after the infamous billboard on the interstate roadside between the two cities, last peaked in 2023 when Columbus claimed a 3-2 comeback win in the MLS Playoffs Eastern Conference Final en route to winning the title.

Cincinnati secured the Eastern Conference’s No. 2 seed with a Decision Day shutout of CF Montreal, while Columbus climbed out of the Wild Card round and into the No. 7 spot in part thanks to a Saturday win over the New York Red Bulls.

Charlotte FC meanwhile sealed home-field advantage for a first-round matchup with New York City FC thanks to a Decision Day win over the Philadelphia Union.

The Philadelphia Union will now wait for next Wednesday’s Wild Card game, when the Orlando City SC and Chicago Fire play for the final playoff spot in the East.

San Diego FC meanwhile locked up the top seed in the West thanks to a Decision Day shutout of the Portland Timbers, combined with the Vancouver Whitecaps’ loss to FC Dallas.

Either the Portland Timbers or Real Salt Lake will face San Diego FC in the first round, depending on Wednesday’s Wild Card results.

Vancouver fell to the No. 2 seed and a first-round rematch with Dallas. Minnesota will face Seattle while LAFC takes on Austin to round out the Western Conference.

Round 1 begins Friday and runs through Sunday, Nov. 9. The conference semifinals are set to take place on Saturday, Nov. 22 and Sunday, Nov. 23, followed by the conference finals the following weekend on Saturday, Nov. 29 and Sunday, Nov. 30.

Everything leads up to the kickoff of the 2025 MLS Cup on Saturday, Dec. 6.

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  Bradford DoolittleOct 18, 2025, 03:45 PM ET

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  • MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
  • Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
  • Been with ESPN since 2013

Let’s ignore the fact that the 2025 MLB playoffs began on the last day of September and might end on the first day of November — because it’s always October when it comes to playoff baseball — and ask this: Who is this year’s Mr. October?

We last checked in after the LDS round, and things have changed, not the least of which is that we’re now down to the last three teams still vying for a World Series crown. Our leader last time was the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Roki Sasaki and while that’s no longer the case, Los Angeles’ collective playoff blitz still paints the leaderboard a vivid Dodger Blue.

At least that’s the answer through the rubric of Win Probability Added (WPA, a metric that’s been around for a while now and has a lot of utility in putting numbers to the narratives that emerge as the October bracket plays out.)

Between Shohei Ohtani’s unprecedented performance in the Dodgers’ Game 4 win to close out the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series and the ongoing dominance of the L.A. rotation, led by Blake Snell, this WPA exercise has a chance to reverberate beyond the crucible of this one postseason. There is potentially historic stuff happening. Let’s dig in.

Jump to:
Methodology | Top 5 | WPA hero of the day
Top 10 for eliminated players | Ohtani tracker | The all-time WPA champs

Methodology

The way WPA works is that play-by-play during a game, if you do something that improves your team’s chances to win, you get a positive credit. If you don’t, it’s a negative. In small samples, one play can have an outsized effect on WPA. A grand slam in a 10-0 game? Great for your stat line, but the blast does little to change the game’s outcome. Hit the same homer with your team down 3-0 in the eighth, and you’ve made some history. Because of that, there is a bias toward players who end up in a lot of close games — but only if they come through.

All we’ve done here is to marry the hitting and pitching versions of WPA together based on the version of the system at Baseball-Reference.com. Why add pitching and hitting WPA together in 2025, the era of the universal DH?

Well, you know why — Mr. Ohtani — and it was his historic debut as a two-way postseason player this season that inspired us to watch the WPA results a little more closely this October. Ohtani had been pretty quiet during this postseason, but his epic Game 4 against the Brewers shows why we wanted to track this.

Top 5 alive

Best postseason WPAs from players on teams still playing

1. Blake Snell, Dodgers | 1.203

Snell’s .622 WPA showing from his Game 1 masterpiece against Milwaukee is easily the best score from any player so far this postseason. Whereas Ohtani’s two-way brilliance in the clincher of that series came in a mostly one-sided game, Snell’s 90 game score over eight innings was posted in a more intense context.

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That game was scoreless until Freddie Freeman’s sixth-inning homer, and the Dodgers didn’t tack on the second run of their eventual 2-1 win until the ninth, after Snell departed. And it was only when that happened that Milwaukee was finally able to crack the scoreboard. Snell was not just brilliant, but he was brilliant in a game that allowed for no margin for error. WPA loved it.

Snell has been lights-out in all three of his playoff starts and the 1.203 WPA he has rolled up already ranks in the top 30 all time among postseason pitchers. If Snell gets two starts in the World Series and approaches the .401 WPA per game he has averaged so far, he’s going to crack the WPA pantheon, and if the games in the Fall Classic are close, he might end up leading the way.

2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners | .800

Raleigh was already having a great postseason, but his eighth-inning, game-tying homer off Toronto reliever Brendon Little was the kind of game-turning event (.320 WPA all by itself) that flips a leaderboard. It wasn’t quite enough to overcome Ohtani for the WPA crown for the night, but it did put Raleigh in position to win Mr. October if Seattle keeps advancing.

3. Alex Vesia, Dodgers | .708

Vesia has strung together six straight scoreless outings, all in close Dodgers wins. The outings have yielded four holds and two wins. Vesia has been understandably overshadowed by what some of his teammates have been doing, but he has played a key role in Los Angeles’ playoff spree.

4. Andres Munoz, Mariners | .704

Not all of Munoz’s outings have been high-leverage, but they’ve all been virtually spotless. Over six outings, Munoz has posted 7â…“ scoreless and hitless innings.

5. Roki Sasaki, Dodgers | .686

Sasaki’s shaky Game 1 outing in relief of Snell against Milwaukee cost him a little ground in the series by WPA. But he has posted two clean outings subsequent to that, and as long as he’s finishing close games, he can climb on this leaderboard.

Next five: 6. Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers (.596); 7. Nathan Lukes, Toronto Blue Jays (.506); 8. Bryce Miller, Mariners (.478); 9. Eduard Bazardo, Mariners (.467); 10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (.462)

About last night

Golden Guy: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (.349)

Alas, WPA doesn’t really capture the full breadth of what we saw Ohtani do as the Dodgers swept the Brewers out of the NLCS. The .349 is impressive but because the Dodgers jumped to an early 3-0 lead (aided by Ohtani’s first homer to begin the onslaught), the rest of the game had limited leverage potential. Besides, there’s not one number that can fully do justice to what Ohtani did. It’s all of the numbers.

Three homers? It’s been done in the postseason, 12 other times in fact before Ohtani. Babe Ruth — Ohtani’s most common historical comparison — did it twice. But none of those previous instances were done by a game’s starting pitcher. And even if you want to get technical and point out that Ohtani’s third homer came after he had shifted to DH, well, no pitcher had homered even twice in a postseason game.

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Ruth never homered in a World Series game in which he pitched. He owns the third-lowest career postseason ERA (0.87) among pitchers who have made at least three starts. But none of his amazing World Series outings as a pitcher also featured anything close to what Ohtani did with the bat against Milwaukee.

Ten whiffs? A 75 game score, which Ohtani earned in Game 4? Sure, many pitchers have exceeded those numbers in a postseason game. But none of them also hit three homers. In fact: No one had ever hit three homers while striking out 10 batters in the same game, period. Postseason, regular season, any season.

More than anything, the awe with which we watched Ohtani on Friday wasn’t just what he did, but how he did it.

According to the timestamps in Statcast’s play log, Ohtani struck out William Contreras swinging for this third straight whiff in the first inning at 7:45:18 p.m. PT. He then stomped off the mound, threw on his batting helmet and grabbed a bat, then hit a 446-foot homer at 116.5 mph off the bat against Jose Quintana at 7:50:05 p.m. — less than five minutes later. How is that possible?

Well, how is it possible that he struck out Jake Bauer on a splitter at 8:49:47 p.m. then, seven minutes later, hit a 469-foot bomb over the roof at Dodger Stadium against Chad Patrick? Or that, after finishing up his six standout innings on the mound, he then hit one out to center off Trevor Megill? Three homers off three different pitchers. Three homers during a six-inning start in which he allowed two hits. Who does that?

How is it possible that the same player who threw the 11 fastest pitches of the game — and the only two over 100 mph — also recorded the game’s three hardest hit balls, all at 113 mph or more? It’s not just that no one had ever done what Ohtani did on Friday. It’s arguable that no one else has even been capable of doing all those things in the same game. And oh yeah: That game happened to put his team back in the World Series.

There’s no one number that proclaims Ohtani’s Game 4 performance as the best single-game showing in baseball history. But if you want to make that argument, I for one am not going to stand in your way.

Good while they lasted

Top 10 postseason WPAs from players on eliminated teams

1. Will Vest, Detroit Tigers | .848

2. Tarik Skubal, Tigers | .609

3. Kerry Carpenter, Tigers | .591

4. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees | .579

5. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians | .482

6. Keider Montero, Tigers | .441

7. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers | .362

8. Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies | .349

9. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox | .348

10. Cam Schlittler, Yankees | .314

Ohtani tracker

Since Ohtani inspired all of this, we should keep tabs on his WPA progress.

Through the NLCS:

Hitting WPA: minus-.062

Pitching WPA: .109

Overall WPA: .047 (98th of 284 players this postseason)

Ohtani jumped from 277th to 98th on Friday night. Let’s cross our fingers for two Ohtani starts in the Fall Classic.

The WPA pantheon

Top 10 single-season postseason WPAs since 1903

Note: It’s a big time frame, but the cumulative nature of the leaderboard heavily favors the recent decades when there have been more playoff rounds.

1. David Freese, 2011 St. Louis Cardinals | 1.908

2. David Ortiz, 2004 Red Sox | 1.892

3. Curt Schilling, 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.748

4. Alex Rodriguez, 2009 Yankees | 1.704

5. Yordan Alvarez, 2022 Houston Astros | 1.646

6. Carlos Beltran, 2013 Cardinals | 1.582

7. Bernie Williams, 1996 Yankees | 1.545

8. John Wetteland, 1996 Yankees | 1.522

9. Eric Hosmer, 2014 Kansas City Royals | 1.443

10. Mariano Rivera, 2003 Yankees | 1.420

How Vlad Jr., Blue Jays bet on each other

Just when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seemed destined for free agency, Toronto made an offer he couldn’t refuse. Now the Jays are in the ALCS. Jorge Castillo »

Snell’s total at the end of the NLCS puts him in range of this select group. With two more outings in the World Series like his start in Milwaukee — in tight games — it’s conceivable he could challenge Freese for the all-time Mr. October throne. It’s a long shot, but either way, this has been an amazing run for Snell.

As for Ohtani, here are the four instances in which a player posted at least .200 WPA on both the hitting and pitching sides during the same postseason. This is the list we thought Ohtani might join. He has some work to do to get there, but at least we know that if he doesn’t do it, in 2025 baseball, no one else will.

• Christy Mathewson, 1913 New York Giants (1.054 WPA | .447 hitting; .607 pitching)

• Rube Foster, 1915 Red Sox (.883 WPA | .303 hitting; .580 pitching)

• Babe Ruth, 1918 Red Sox (.710 WPA | .209 hitting; .501 pitching)

• General Crowder, 1935 Tigers (.923 WPA | .207 hitting; .716 pitching)

• Jake Arrieta, 2016 Chicago Cubs (.480 WPA | .218 hitting; .262 pitching)

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The 2025 MLB postseason is in full swing. After a thrilling Wild Card round and a Division Series round which included an instant classic between the Mariners and the Tigers, the road to the 2025 MLB World Series continues. How inevitable are the Dodgers, exactly? Weâ€re about to find out.

Below is everything you need to know about the 2025 MLB postseason schedule and format.

Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani at the top? Our early 2026 Top 300 rankings highlight key fantasy storylines heading into the MLB offseason.

When is the 2025 World Series?

The 2025 World Series is scheduled to begin on Friday October 24, and would go through Saturday November 1 if the series goes seven games.

âš¾ï¸ Who is the favorite to win the 2025 World Series?

Per DraftKings (as of Saturday, October 18):

• Dodgers -185
• Mariners +215
• Blue Jays +850

Who Has Home-Field Advantage For the 2025 World Series?

Home-field advantage goes to the team with the best record. If the teams have the same record, home-field advantage will be determined by tiebreakers.

The Brewers finished the regular season with the best record in baseball at 97-65. However, since they were eliminated by the Dodgers during the NLCS, home-field advantage for the World Series is up for grabs.

If the Mariners (90-72) win the American League pennant, the Dodgers (93-69) would have home-field advantage. If the Blue Jays (94-68) come back to beat the Mariners, they would have home-field over the Dodgers.

What is the 2025 MLB Postseason Schedule?

âš¾ Championship Series: October 12-21

(ALCS airing on TBS, truTV and HBO Max; NLCS airing on FOX, FS1, and FOX Deportes: Game times are TBA)

*if necessary

Date

Matchup

10/12/25

Mariners at Blue Jays (ALCS Game 1)

SEA 3, DET 1

10/13/25

Mariners at Blue Jays (ALCS Game 2)

SEA 10, DET 3

Dodgers at Brewers (NCLS Game 1)

LAD 2, MIL 1

10/14/25

Dodgers at Brewers (NCLS Game 2))

LAD 5, MIL 1

10/15/25

Blue Jays at Mariners (ALCS Game 3)

TOR 13, SEA 4

10/16/25

Brewers at Dodgers (NLCS Game 3)

LAD 3, MIL 1

Blue Jays at Mariners (ALCS Game 4)

TOR 8, SEA 2

10/17/25

Blue Jays at Mariners (ALCS Game 5)

SEA 6, TOR 2

Brewers at Dodgers (NLCS Game 4)

LAD 5, MIL 1

10/19/25

Mariners at Blue Jays (ALCS Game 6)

8:03 p.m. ET

10/20/25

Mariners at Blue Jays (ALCS Game 7)*

8:08 p.m. ET

âš¾ 2025 World Series: October 24-November 1

(World Series airing on FOX: Game times are TBA)

*if necessary

Date

Series

Matchup

10/24/25

World Series, Game 1

League Champ #2 at League Champ #1

10/25/25

World Series, Game 2

League Champ #2 at League Champ #1

10/27/25

World Series, Game 3

League Champ #1 at League Champ #2

10/28/25

World Series, Game 4

League Champ #1 at League Champ #2

10/29/25

World Series, Game 5 *

League Champ #1 at League Champ #2

10/31/25

World Series, Game 6 *

League Champ #2 at League Champ #1

11/1/25

World Series, Game 7 *

League Champ #2 at League Champ #1

2025 MLB Playoff Rules

What Are The Replay Rules for the 2025 MLB Playoffs?

Managers get just one challenge during the regular season, but they are afforded two challenges in the postseason. If a challenge is successful, the manager keeps their challenge; they lose one of their challenges if the original call is confirmed. From the eighth inning onward, the crew chief can still review certain calls if a team has exhausted their challenges.

Will the Runner-on-Second Rule Apply in Extra Innings During the 2025 MLB Playoffs?

No. As opposed the regular season, the bases will be empty to begin extra innings and the game will be played under those circumstances until completion.

Can MLB Teams Replace Injured Players During the Playoffs?

Yes. Teams can replace an injured player during a series, but that player will be deemed ineligible for the remainder of the series and the following round should the team advance.

Additionally, a pitcher may only be replaced by another pitcher and a position player may only be replaced by another position player.

MLB Postseason Roster Eligibility Rules Explained

Any player on the 40-man roster or injured list as of noon ET on September 1 is eligible for the postseason. Players who were in the organization (and not on the 40-man roster) by that deadline may also replace someone on the 10-day or 60-day injured list, provided the injured player has served the minimum required time (10 days for the 10-day IL, 60 days for the 60-day IL). The substitute must also be added to the 40-man roster before joining the postseason roster.

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LOS ANGELES — There havenâ€t been many times during Shohei Ohtaniâ€s eight-year MLB career when the greatness of the undisputed best player in the world has been questioned. But given Ohtaniâ€s struggles at the plate this postseason — he was 6-for-38 entering Game 4 on Friday — questions about his effectiveness now that heâ€s back to pitching and hitting full-time had begun to surface.

When asked this week if pitching has started to affect his prodigious offense, leading to a dip in production, the three-time MVP didnâ€t seem thrilled with the questions, even though, considering his .158 average with two home runs, they had merit. And when Ohtani took batting practice this week in L.A., which he almost never does, it became clear that he felt the need to shake things up.

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In Game 4 of the NLCS, Ohtani had the look of a man with something to prove. And as it turned out, Game 4 — in which the Dodgers defeated the Brewers 5-1 to advance to the World Series — wasnâ€t just about the Dodgers winning the NL pennant. They were well on their way to doing that already, leading the series 3-0.

No, this game was about something more. This was Ohtaniâ€s chance to remind everyone watching that no baseball player in this world or the next is better than him. And he did it in a way that only he could: By putting together one of the greatest postseason performances in MLB history, hitting three home runs and tossing six shutout innings in the Dodgers†sweep-clinching victory over the Brewers.

“He woke up this morning to people calling him out for how poorly he had played in the [NLCS], and 12 hours later, heâ€s standing on the podium as the MVP,†Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. “That says everything we need to know about him.â€

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The first task for Ohtani in Game 4 was to continue the Dodgers†trend of elite starting pitching. It was evident from the first frame that Ohtani was locked in on the mound, as his stuff looked electric against the middle of the Brewers†lineup.

After walking leadoff man Brice Turang, the Dodgers†right-hander and designated hitter blew a 100-mph fastball past Jackson Chourio for his first strikeout. He then struck out the next batter, Christian Yelich, on a 100-mph fastball painted on the outside corner. Finally, Ohtani ended the frame by getting William Contreras to swing through a sweeper for strikeout number three.

And then, having set the tone on the mound, it was time for Ohtani to make his presence felt at the plate. His first big swing of the night came in leading off the bottom of the first, as he unloaded on a hanging 3-2 curveball from José Quintana, depositing it deep into the right-field bleachers and giving the Dodgers a 1-0 lead. With that, Ohtani became the first pitcher in MLB history to hit a leadoff home run in the postseason.

“I felt like the last couple days, I felt pretty good at the plate,†Ohtani said afterward of his postseason slump. “And just because of the postseason, the sample size, the lack of — it’s just that I think the lack of performance really skews in this short period of time.â€

Having given himself and the Dodgers some breathing room, Ohtani, the pitcher, then settled in. Following his dominance in the first inning, his comfort with his full arsenal was on display in the next few frames. Because while Ohtani has a triple-digit fastball in his back pocket that he can use to blow by hitters, he also relied on his sweeper, cutter and signature splitter to keep Milwaukeeâ€s hitters off-balance.

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On the night, the Dodgers†starter induced 19 swing-and-misses, including five with his splitter. All five of those splitter whiffs came on strikeouts. It was arguably the best that pitch has looked during Ohtaniâ€s time as a Dodger.

“The Phillies [outing], he had a couple good ones in there,†Dodgers pitching coach Mark Prior said of the splitter. “But when he threw that first one to Contreras, [we] kind of knew — all right, we can start leaning on this, get them off the fastball. I think it just opened up everything else.â€

Having drawn a walk in the bottom of the second, Ohtani came back to the plate in the fourth with his confidence growing. Brewers rookie Chad Patrick was one of the best relievers in baseball this postseason, and he threw four quality innings in this contest, but even he couldnâ€t escape the greatness of Ohtani.

On an 89.3-mph cutter from Patrick, the Dodgers†superstar crushed a titanic, 469-foot blast off the roof of the right-field pavilion at Dodger Stadium, and this time, he took a little extra time to admire the swing that sent the home crowd into a complete frenzy.

A historic night deserves a historic homer, and Ohtaniâ€s fourth-inning blast was exactly that. It was just the third time in the history of Dodger Stadium that a player had hit a home run over the right-field pavilion, the others being Kyle Schwarber and Willie Stargell, who accomplished the feat twice in his career. When we look back on this night, that second home run will likely be the most memorable.

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“The one that went out of the stadium kind of took everybodyâ€s breath away,†shortstop Mookie Betts said afterward. “Other than that, itâ€s just Shohei being Shohei.â€

With Ohtani’s two moon shots having loudly announced him as a force to be reckoned with, it was a reminder that his struggling through a series is more good fortune for the other team than anything else — and fortune that can change at any time. Just a day prior, Brewers manager Pat Murphy had acknowledged as much.

“Shohei’s in a little spell here where he’s not barrelling balls like he has,†Murphy said after Game 3. “But he’s still for us a tremendously dangerous, dangerous hitter. You can’t forget that. These great ones, they can turn it on like that.â€

[Get more Los Angeles news: Dodgers team feed]

Back on the mound in the top of the fifth, Ohtani cruised through a Brewers lineup that had no answers for his electric stuff. And he showed that he was feeling it, giving a yell and fist pump after striking out both Caleb Durbin and Blake Perkins to end the frame. Then he came back out and struck out the first two batters in the sixth inning.

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He finished his night going six shutout innings, surrendering just two hits and three walks while striking out 10. It was Ohtaniâ€s first start with 10 or more strikeouts since June 27, 2023.

“I just don’t know how he handles the expectations, because a lot of times, when you have expectations like he has, they’re just unattainable, and you just never realize them,†Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “Certainly the way he was struggling this postseason, and not to let it affect him and keep his psyche [and] his confidence the same is really impressive.â€

Said Betts: “You could call it surprising, I guess. I donâ€t know. Itâ€s kind of like expectation — for only him.â€

Ohtani’s night on the mound ended after he surrendered two baserunners to begin the seventh frame. But he wasn’t quite finished at the plate. With Alex Vesia having gotten out of the top of the seventh unscathed, Ohtani came back up in the bottom of the inning with the Dodgers holding a comfortable 4-0 lead.

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Unlike on his first two homers, this time, against All-Star closer Trevor Megill, Ohtani fell behind in the count 1-2. No matter. He drove a 98.9-mph fastball 427 feet into the left-field seats to put the finishing touches on his incredible, unforgettable night.

“There were times during the postseason where Teo [Hernández] and Mookie picked me up,†Ohtani said afterward. “And this time around, it was my turn to be able to perform.â€

Said Murphy after his team was eliminated: “We were part of tonight — an iconic, maybe the best individual performance ever in a postseason game. I don’t think anybody can argue with that. A guy punches out 10 and hits three homers.â€

Indeed, if Ohtani had just hit three home runs in Game 4, that would have been an amazing accomplishment. If he had merely struck out 10 batters over six shutout innings, that would have been an incredible performance. But what makes Ohtani the undisputed best player walking the face of the Earth — and the NLCS MVP — is that he can do both.

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Not only that, but his ability to rise to the occasion in the biggest moments, in addition to his unbelievable talent, separates him from the pack.

“What he did on the mound, what he did at the bat, he created a lot of memories for a lot of people [tonight],” Roberts said. “So for us to have a game-clinching — to do it in a game-clinching game at home, wins the NLCS MVP, pretty special. I’m just happy to be able to go along for the ride.â€

Said third baseman Max Muncy: “I feel truly blessed to be able to be on the field for that performance tonight.â€

The MLB postseason has a way of lending itself to big moments, and on Friday at Dodger Stadium, in an NL-pennant clinching game, baseballâ€s biggest star shined the brightest. From now on, when the question is raised about the best single-game performance ever, it will not only be an easy one to answer but also something that will likely never happen again:

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The Ohtani Game.

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SEATTLE — Logan Gilbert didnâ€t want to get greedy.

The Mariners had the bases loaded in a 2-2 game in the bottom of the eighth inning of ALCS Game 5 against the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night. The right-hander was standing in the dugout as a nervous spectator, just like the 46,758 fans surrounding him in the seats and concourses at T-Mobile Park.

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Minutes earlier, Cal Raleigh had rejuvenated the home crowd with a roof-scraping, stadium-rattling, game-tying solo home run to left field after seven agonizing innings of minimal offensive output. The rally continued after Raleighâ€s blast, with Jorge Polanco and Josh Naylor drawing walks against Toronto reliever Brendon Little and Randy Arozarena wearing a 98-mph fastball off the elbow from Seranthony Domínguez for a hit-by-pitch to load the bases.

Up to the plate walked Eugenio Suárez, the lovable slugger who returned to Seattle in a serendipitous trade-deadline swap, still seeking his signature moment in this postseason.

By the time Suárez settled in for his showdown against Domínguez, Gilbert had been joined in the dugout by rotation-mate Bryce Miller, who started Game 5 on the mound, tossing four solid innings to set an encouraging tone for Seattle. Miller was in the clubhouse handling his post-outing arm care during Raleighâ€s home run, but he rushed out to get a better view as the eighth-inning rally started to build.

“I just ran outside, and next thing you know, bases are loaded, and Geno’s up,†Miller said afterward.

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[Get more Seattle news: Mariners team feed]

Domínguez attacked Suárez with fastballs and sweepers, with Suárez fouling off one of each to stay alive in the high-stakes at-bat. In a 2-2 count, Gilbert turned to Miller with a humble plea.

“Logan actually told me, ‘Hey, all I’m asking for right here is a home run — nothing too much,â€â€ Miller recounted.

With the crowd eagerly and desperately awaiting a resolution that could break the tie, Domínguez unleashed a 98.5-mph fastball over the heart of the plate. Suárez delivered his thunderous, right-handed cut that has sent so many baseballs over fences during the course of his 12-year career.

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“And next pitch,†Miller said, “home run.â€

Suárez connected with precision, sending Domínguez’s heater soaring toward the right-field seats. He exited the batterâ€s box calmly and started walking toward first base while holding his bat with two hands, patiently observing the trajectory of the most important batted ball of his life.

Three seconds later, that ball crash-landed into the crowd for a series-altering grand slam and a 6-2 lead that the Mariners would not relinquish.

After Raleighâ€s solo shot had taken the volume in the venue to ear-splitting heights, Suárez’s grand slam achieved seemingly supersonic levels. And with that, Gilbertâ€s wish had been granted.

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“It started as a request,†he told Yahoo Sports postgame. “But we can say that I called it.â€

As Suárez spent his well-earned time rounding the bases, several teammates spilled out of the dugout, unable to contain their excitement about what their beloved teammate had just done. For all Suárez brings to the table as a player, his unwavering positivity and steady leadership rooted in an overabundance of good vibes make him nearly everybodyâ€s favorite teammate, someone whose success is celebrated tenfold because of his impact on the entire roster.

That singular clubhouse presence, which Seattle was familiar with from Suárez’s time with the team in 2022 and ‘23, combined with the massive right-handed power he showcased in Game 5 is what made him such an obvious target for Seattle at the trade deadline. And though Suárez had gone through some considerably cold stretches since returning to the Mariners, the veteran third baseman remained predictably upbeat and continued to work hard, with the belief that his time in October would come.

“I think everybody was thinking what could happen, but the chances of it actually happening in that moment is probably not super high,†Gilbert said. “And then, of course, it happens. Geno’s been so clutch, and so many home runs, so if anybody was going to do it, I feel like it’s him.â€

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“He’s done that for 10 years — that same exact swing,†catcher Mitch Garver said.

It was a swing that not only gave the Mariners the lead but also single-handedly transformed the tenor of a series that had been decidedly in Torontoâ€s favor since the action shifted to Seattle for Game 3. For the majority of the 25 innings played at T-Mobile Park before the Mariners†eighth-inning breakthrough, the good vibes Suárez so passionately preaches were absolutely nowhere to be found.

The Mariners had returned home with a 2-0 lead in the series having flatly dominated the Blue Jays on their home turf, setting the stage for the possibility of clinching the franchiseâ€s first trip to the World Series in front of a fan base that had waited nearly a half-century for such a moment. But Toronto arrived in Seattle intent on reversing the tide and followed through with downright dominant victories in Games 3 and 4. And for the first seven innings of Game 5, a similar story was being written, putting the Mariners in danger of dropping all three home games and letting a golden opportunity turn into an embarrassing and season-threatening series deficit.

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For the third straight night, the Mariners had opened the scoring with a home run, this time on a Suárez solo shot in the second inning. But once again, the bats went ice-cold after that initial blast, allowing Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman to settle in and a relentless Toronto lineup to scratch across a couple of runs and pull ahead 2-1.

Torontoâ€s seizing of the lead was a particular gut punch for Mariners fans, considering who was on the mound when it occurred: All-Star starter Bryan Woo, making his postseason debut at long last as he builds back up from the right pectoral injury that kept him off the ALDS roster. Woo surrendered the double and single that gave Toronto a 2-1 lead in the sixth.

But unlike the previous two nights, when the Blue Jays†offense exploded to put the game out of reach, just one run was the difference as the later innings of Game 5 arrived — a deficit that could be eliminated with one swing. And for as unproductive as the Mariners†lineup had been, it still featured multiple hitters capable of sending one out of the yard when needed. Sure enough, the MVP candidate who just spent the summer smashing home run records and the veteran slugger who has been sending souvenirs into seats for over a decade accessed their power at the perfect time, producing two of the most memorable long balls in the history of the Mariners franchise.

“I have a good amount of beautiful moments in my career, but today is something else,†a beaming Suárez said postgame as he sat at the podium with his daughters, Nicolle and Melanie.

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“Hitting that grand slam and helping my team win games in the postseason, in a big game here in front of our fans … They have been waiting for a long time, and myself, too. I’ve been waiting for this moment my whole career.â€

Said Raleigh: “The fans and the stadium, they were waiting 26 innings for something like that. Obviously, it didn’t deliver the first two games. But when those moments happen, they just exploded.â€

Thanks to those two titanic swings from Raleigh and Suárez — and an efficient 1-2-3 ninth thrown by closer Andrés Muñoz, who was finally given a lead at home to lock down — what was trending toward one of the most disappointing three days in the history of Seattle sports transformed into one inning of unfettered jubilation that will be remembered in the Pacific Northwest for generations to come.

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By securing the victory in Game 5, the Mariners have arrived at an entirely unfamiliar juncture for the franchise. Just one win separates Seattle from its first World Series berth and the erasure of a longstanding, not-so-fun fact regarding the franchiseâ€s status as the only big-league ballclub to never appear in the Fall Classic.

The team will now travel back to Toronto, where Game 6 on Sunday represents its first of two chances to punch a ticket to the unexplored final stage of baseballâ€s October tournament.

“They came here last night for this type of game, and I’ve been waiting for this,†Suárez said. “I just feel so grateful right now and feel so good because we’re going to Toronto with an opportunity in front of us to go to a World Series.â€

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Dave Roberts and the Los Angeles Dodgers aren’t afraid of embracing a villain persona. Especially when they have a fully operational Death Star hitting and pitching for them.

As the Dodgers celebrated a second straight National League title and a chance to become MLB’s first back-to-back champions in 25 years, their manager took the microphone and executed a perfect heel turn:

“Before this season started, they said, ‘The Dodgers are ruining baseball.’ Let’s get four more wins and really ruin baseball!”

Roberts’ players approved of the statement, as did the fans at Dodger Stadium. The group will attempt to follow through on his threat against either the Seattle Mariners or the Toronto Blue Jays, with the Mariners holding a 3-2 ALCS advantage after Friday.

That’s the kind of confidence you get after a dominant sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers, who posted the best record in MLB in the regular season (including a 6-0 record against the Dodgers). The L.A. rotation of Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow anchored those four wins with a combined 28 2/3 innings, 9 hits, 2 runs, 7 walks and 35 strikeouts.

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Of course, that quartet of pitchers also epitomize why so many opposing fans see the Dodgers as not just bad for their own team but also bad for baseball.

Are the Dodgers really bad for baseball?

The Dodgers and Brewers were perfectly set up as a clash of baseball archetypes. The Dodgers were the big, bad, large-market team with the most expensive roster in baseball, underwritten by an enormous local TV contract and Ohtani’s cultural power. The Brewers had a bottom-10 payroll in one of the league’s smallest markets, succeeding through shrewd decisions at the plate and in the front office.

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You already know which one won.

Even if you adjust Ohtani’s heavily deferred $700 million contract for inflation, that four-man Dodgers rotation collectively makes more than the entire Brewers $123 million roster. The smallest of those four contracts (Glasnow’s five-year, $137 million deal) would still obliterate the Brewers’ largest contract ever for a pitcher (Matt Garza, four years and $50 million).

Brewers manager Pat Murphy, fond of calling his very talented roster the “Average Joes,” leaned into that dichotomy throughout the series, at one point claiming that some Dodgers players couldn’t name more than eight players on his roster. It possibly became a self-fulfilling prophecy, as the Dodgers absolutely looked and acted like the more talented team.

[Get more L.A. news: Dodgers team feed]

Back-to-back Dodgers titles would mean money works, even if plenty of other high-spending teams — the Dodgers included — have struggled to dominate like what L.A. is doing now. The New York Mets, MLB’s second-largest payroll, failed to make the postseason. The New York Yankees, with the third-largest payroll, have won only one title since 2000 and crashed out hard in the ALDS.

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It’s funny to think that the Dodgers were quite literally bankrupt 15 years ago, and then they landed with a dream ownership group, who hired the right people and signed the right Japanese unicorn. Until 2024, it was easy to disregard them. Their money had bought them only one World Series title, the often-mocked 2020 title won amid the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Now, it’s not so easy.

The Dodgers look unbeatable. It might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. (Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

(Mary DeCicco via Getty Images)

Will the Dodgers ruin baseball with another title? That probably depends on your definition of “ruin.” Baseball itself would probably see higher ratings and general interest with a true juggernaut capturing headlines, as is true for pretty much every other major league over the past half-century. Last year’s World Series between L.A. and New York saw a seven-year high in ratings and drew more viewers in Japan than the NBA Finals did in the U.S.

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However, the Dodgers putting it all together is very bad news for your team if you’re not a Dodgers fan. Rooting for a team is hard enough when it theoretically has a 1-in-30 chance of winning the championship. It’s even harder when you look over and see a team, particularly a rich one, seemingly ready to gobble up half the titles of the next decade. It’s more a question of fairness than one about the fate of the game, though those debates might become one and the same during the next CBA negotiations, in which MLB is already pushing for a salary cap.

There is a way to credit the Dodgers for what they have done — what Ohtani has done in particular — while conceding that, yes, Milwaukee was facing an uphill battle because of all that expensive talent. The same will be true in the World Series if the Mariners finish off the Blue Jays, who had a top-10 payroll this year.

For now, though, the Dodgers are just going to have fun with their critics. That’s what villains do.

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Oct 17, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

For possibly the final time in 2025, there are two MLB playoff games on tap. And the stakes are high for all four teams.

In the early game Friday, the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners will meet in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series, with the winning team moving one victory away from the World Series. Later on, the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers could complete a sweep of the top-seeded Milwaukee Brewers with a win in Game 4 of the National League Championship Series.

We’ve got it all covered for you with pregame storylines and lineups, plus top moments during the games and takeaways after the final pitches.

Key links:Bracket

What we’re watching in Friday’s games

ALCS Game 5: Blue Jays-Mariners

How can the Blue Jays keep their momentum going in Game 5?

Buster Olney:Toronto ace Kevin Gausman is fully rested and ready to go, and he could draw upon the work of Max Scherzer, who was effective against the Mariners in Game 4 by slowing everything down. Seattle hitters seemed to be geared up for fastballs against Scherzer, and instead, Scherzer kept dropping in off-speed pitches. And Gausman has an exceptional off-speed weapon in his split-fingered fastball.

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David Schoenfield:Keep hitting the ball hard! OK, seriously, few teams have come into Seattle — arguably the toughest place to hit in the majors — and dismantled the Mariners’ pitching staff like the Blue Jays did in the first two games here. They hit 21 balls with an exit velocity of 100-plus mph — with 16 of those going for hits and 11 of those 16 hits going for extra bases. The Blue Jays had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors in the regular season and they showed how lethal this offense can be when it’s putting the ball in play. Oh, yeah, it helps when Andres Gimenez, your No. 9 hitter, has homered twice, and it especially helps when Vladimir Guerrero Jr., after going 0-for-7 in the two games in Toronto, is 6-for-9 in the two games in Seattle.

What must Seattle do differently to salvage its final home game of this ALCS?

Olney:Bryce Miller lifted the entire Seattle traveling party by pitching so well on short rest less than 48 hours after the incredible Game 5 win over Detroit in the AL Division Series, and because of how Games 3 and 4 played out here, Miller is facing similar pressure in Game 5. Except now the Blue Jays hitters are rolling, after piling up a mountain of offense the past two days. It’s possible that Mariners manager Dan Wilson will be aggressive with his bullpen again — particularly with closer Andres Munoz and regular-season ace Bryan Woo.

Schoenfield: The pitchers definitely need to get more swing-and-miss against the Blue Jays, but the Seattle offense needs to produce. It’s one thing to face Tarik Skubal twice, like the Mariners did against Detroit, but Skubal isn’t pitching in this series. In nine playoff games, the Mariners are hitting just .215 and several key guys are scuffling: Randy Arozarena has a .536 OPS with 16 strikeouts, Eugenio Suarez has a .475 OPS with 14 strikeouts and Victor Robles, who was benched in Game 4, has a .474 OPS. Dominic Canzone, a key player in the second half who hit .300 with an .840 OPS, is 2-for-19 in the postseason. Against the right-handed Gausman, his lefty bat is important.

NLCS Game 4: Brewers at Dodgers

What must the Brewers do to avert a sweep in Game 4?

Alden Gonzalez: First off, they need to hope Jackson Chourio is healthy enough to play. And then they actually need to do a lot of what they did in Game 3: apply pressure early, keep the score close and force Dodgers manager Dave Roberts to go to his bullpen sooner than he’d like. The Brewers, of course, need to hit a lot better (especially Christian Yelich, who is 1-for-11 in this series). But the Dodgers aren’t built to win many games in which their relievers need to get 10 outs to maintain a small lead. That they did it successfully in Game 3 doesn’t mean they can do it again in Game 4.

One-stop shop for 2025 MLB playoffs

We have everything you need to keep up with all the action this October. Schedule, bracket, more »

Jeff Passan:How about hit? The Brewers have mustered nine hits in the first three games of the series. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow allowed three each in their starts. Blake Snell yielded one in his start. Alex Vesia and Roki Sasaki gave up one in a relief appearance. And that’s it. They’ve scored a total of three runs. Striking out 30% of the time doesn’t help, and the fact that they’re facing someone in Shohei Ohtani who had nearly a 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the regular season only intensifies the need to find something now. The Brewers need to be better in every regard to turn around this series, but putting runs on the board is priority No. 1.

What do you expect from Shohei Ohtani in his first start of the NLCS?

Gonzalez:Ohtani will be taking the ball on 12 days’ rest. The last time he had that much time off between starts, it was Sept. 16, when he faced the Philadelphia Phillies after an 11-day layoff from pitching. What followed was five no-hit innings against one of the sport’s best offenses. The Brewers’ lineup isn’t as menacing as the Phillies’, but the team will be playing desperate and, unlike in Game 3, won’t have to hit in the shadows. Ohtani, though, will be sharp, regularly hitting triple digits with his fastball. The question is whether he can shake his offensive slump. On his start days during the regular season, Ohtani’s slash line dipped to .222/.323/.556.

Passan:Because Ohtani has built up slowly to get deep into outings coming off his second elbow reconstruction, it’s easy to have missed that his stuff has returned immediately, which is not always the case with major surgeries. Ohtani never has thrown his average fastball harder, and his sweeper remains one of the game’s best pitches, bendy and confounding. Milwaukee did not handle 97-mph-plus velocity particularly well during the regular season, and what makes it particularly problematic is Ohtani’s wide variety of other pitches to keep them off balance. His first postseason start went six innings, the same as his previous start to end the regular season. If he does the same in Game 4, the Dodgers should find themselves in a good position.

Lineups

Series tied at 2

Starting pitchers:Kevin Gausman vs. Bryce Miller

Lineups

Toronto

TBD

Seattle

TBD

Los Angeles leads series 3-0

Starting pitchers: TBD vs. Shohei Ohtani

Lineups

Los Angeles

TBD

Milwaukee

TBD

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