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NEW YORK — Statistically speaking, Aaron Judge had a nice day.

In Game 4 of the ALDS, he went 2-for-4 with an intentional walk. His two outs were a strikeout and a 112-mph liner smoked right at the second baseman. He made a few nice plays in the field. Judge did not send one flying to the heavens — not every day is Christmas — but it was a productive trip to the office.

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Yet he finished the evening in the same scattered fashion he has finished every year of his career. Disappointed, downtrodden, his eyes puffy and distant with the remnants of tears, his words low and tired. Once more, Judgeâ€s Yankees did not win the World Series. The “October in the Bronx†dream is dead yet again.

[Get more New York news: Yankees team feed]

And as the current face of this institution, as the living emblem of all that Yankeedom represents, as the captain forced to shoulder the 16-year championship drought, Judge was once again left to explain his clubâ€s failures on Wednesday, after a 5-2 loss to the Blue Jays ended the Yankees’ season.

“It’s tough to say right now,†Judge replied when asked whether there’s anything the Yankees were missing to get them over the hump. “I gotta review this season, kind of go through it. I might have a better answer for you.â€

The scene around Judge in the Yankees†locker room featured all the typical sights and sounds of a group understanding it will never be together again. Hugs, thank-yous, handshakes, make-sure-you-text-mes. There were fewer tears than a November goodbye but more than a September goodbye. The weepiest person in the room was Paul Goldschmidtâ€s 10-year-old son, Jake, who received consolations from what seemed like the entire Yankees roster.

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At one point, Andy Pettite strolled in, making him the only one in the room who’d won a World Series in pinstripes. Meanwhile, clubhouse attendants unfolded scores of cardboard boxes, filling them with the various bric-a-brac one finds in a clubhouse. The loud screeches of packing tape being unspooled were often louder than the humbled mumbles of Yankees players conducting postmortems with the media.

“Very disappointed,†second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. said. “Everyone in here believed that we had such a great team, and we were the team to beat. We believe so much in each other. It’s heartbreaking.”

“We didn’t do our job, didn’t finish the goal,†Judge lamented. “Had a special group in here. Lotta special players that made this year fun. But didn’t get the ultimate prize.”

That ultimate prize, a World Series championship, continues to elude and define Judge. Even though he ended all doubts about his postseason fortitude with that unforgettable swing in Game 3, he knows the expectations that come with wearing the pinstripes. He is already, far and away, the greatest Yankee of all time without a ring.

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He did his best Wednesday, delivering a commendable performance that also served to reinforce baseballâ€s limitations in legacy creation. This sport, more than any other, restricts the myth of the lone hero. Itâ€s in the gameâ€s DNA, both frustrating and beautiful. One player can dominate, inspire, ignite, but he cannot do it all alone. Every at-bat is a solitary experience, but the end result is a collaboration.

And while the outcome of Game 4 was compelling, the game itself was not, especially compared to the thrill ride that transpired the night before. This contest was much quieter, a slow burning away of the Yankees†season, a gradual realization in the Jays dugout that the Bronx dragon would be slayed. But while the evening was light on drama, this result will linger sourly in New York and stand the test of time in Toronto.

“The ending’s the worst, right?†Yankees manager Aaron Boone commiserated afterward.

Aaron Judge did his part, but the Yankees came up short in the ALDS against the Blue Jays. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

(Al Bello via Getty Images)

The beginning wasnâ€t so good, either. The game started with the Jays striking quickly against Yankees rookie Cam Schlittler, fresh off that magnificent wild-card performance last week against Boston. Toronto plated a single run in the top of the first courtesy of — who else? — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. With a runner on second, Torontoâ€s top bat sliced a liner over the first-base bag for an RBI knock. New York punched back in the third with a solo home run from nine-hole hitter Ryan McMahon, a glove-first veteran acquired at the deadline from the baseball backwater that is Denver.

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The Jays retook a one-run lead in the fifth on a pair of singles and a sac fly. Meanwhile, a carousel of Toronto relievers continued to silence the Yankees†bats. Then Toronto broke it open in the seventh, the crucial moment a brutal error from Chisholm. A soft one-hopper that wouldâ€ve been a double play caromed off the heel of his glove and trickled into the outfield. A few batters later, outfielder Nathan Lukes shot an elevated Devin Williams fastball into center for a two-RBI single.

That was, effectively, the ballgame. The Jays added a run in the eighth to stretch their lead to four. New York threatened in the bottom of that frame, loading the bases with two outs to bring the tying run to the dish in Austin Wells. He flew out weakly on the first pitch of his at-bat to end the threat. Judge clobbered one off the wall in the ninth, an RBI single that trimmed the lead to three, but the game never seriously felt within reach for the Yankees.

“I’m confident we’ll break through,†Boone asserted afterward. “I have been every year, and I believe in so many of the people in that room. That hasn’t changed. The fire hasn’t changed. It’s hard to win the World Series. Been chasing it all my life.â€

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And as Boone well knows, he canâ€t do it alone. Nobody can, not even the greatest hitter on the planet. Both Aarons are likely to be back next season — Boone, when asked, stated that heâ€s under contract and expects to return as manager — to do it all over again. Theyâ€ll have as good a shot as anybody else. The Yankees wield enormous financial might and boast a formidable pitching rotation. They also have Judge, a player so brilliant he makes anything seem possible.

Even winning a World Series.

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The location changed for Game 3 of the NLDS between the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs, but the scoring cadence didnâ€t. There were first-inning fireworks in the Friendly Confines, too.

In an NL Central division showdown that produced 13 first-inning runs in the first two games, the Cubs put up a four-spot in the opening frame Wednesday, igniting the Wrigley Field fans desperate for more playoff baseball.

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They’re getting it.

The Cubs maintained their lead the rest of the way, even as the Brewers chipped away, and staved off elimination with a 4-3 victory. Milwaukeeâ€s series lead is down to 2-1, and Game 4 is Thursday at Wrigley.

[Get more Chicago news: Cubs team feed]

In the top of the first inning, the Brewers staked themselves to a 1-0 advantage, in large part thanks to Christian Yelich, who ripped a leadoff double off Cubs starter Jameson Taillon and then scored on a sac fly from Sal Frelick.

While the veteran Taillon ultimately recovered and turned in four innings of work, the same couldnâ€t be said for 25-year-old Brewers righty Quinn Priester. Pitching against the team he grew up rooting for, Priester battled command issues and gave up four runs and two walks in two-thirds of an inning before he was yanked.

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Redeeming himself after losing an infield popup in the sun that advanced Yelich to third in the first frame, Michael Busch blasted a leadoff homer for the second time in the series. Not even swirling Wrigley Field winds could keep this one out of the right-field bleachers.

The Cubs then loaded the bases, and Pete Crow-Armstrong smacked a two-out, two-RBI single to right, chasing Priester and forcing Brewers manager Pat Murphy into a bullpen game early.

In came Nick Mears, the first of five additional Milwaukee arms deployed Wednesday. Almost instantly, Mears fired a wild pitch that catcher William Contreras couldnâ€t corral while Crow-Armstrong swiped second. Ian Happ scored as a result, making it a 4-1 game.

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From there, the Cubs didn’t score again, and the Brewers chipped away at their deficit throughout the night.

Jake Bauers delivered an RBI single in the top of the fourth, and in the seventh, he teed off on reliever Andrew Kittredge’s first pitch, sending a solo shot over the left-center wall and cutting the Cubs†lead to 4-3.

Milwaukee threatened to break hearts in the eighth, loading the bases with two outs, and Bauers came up again with the tying run 90 feet away. Fortunately for Chicago, Brad Keller blew by Bauers with a 97-mph, four-seam fastball up in the zone for a clutch strikeout.

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With that, Keller secured the four-out save in the ninth and extended the Cubs’ playoff run at least one more day. Game 4 is scheduled for 9:08 p.m. ET Thursday in Chicago.

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Among teams left standing in the 2025 playoff field, only the Milwaukee Brewers had a better bullpen ERA during the regular season than the Mariners, and Seattle’s relief corps was a major weapon early in this series.

Despite taking the loss in Game 1, the bullpen provided five scoreless innings before Carlos Vargas was tagged for the winning run in the 11th inning.

Reliable late-inning arms Gabe Speier, Matt Brash and Andrés Muñoz all looked rock solid in Game 2 and Game 3 wins, and things looked to be in good hands when Bryce Miller exited after 4.1 innings with a 3-1 win on Thursday.

Instead, Speier allowed back-to-back RBI doubles to tie things up, and while he escaped the fifth without any further damage, that was just the start of Detroit’s scoring. Eduard Bazardo (1.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER) and Vargas (1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER) also gave up runs, and suddenly the bullpen is a question mark if Kirby can’t get the ball to Brash and Muñoz in Game 5.

Loser: Julio Rodríguez, Jorge Polanco Go Silent

Julio Rodríguez and Jorge Polanco were two of the hottest hitters in the Seattle lineup down the stretch.

Rodríguez went 3-for-5 with a home run in Game 1, while Polanco was 3-for-4 with two homers in Game 2, but both guys have gone cold the last two games.

They were a combined 0-for-9 with four strikeouts in Game 3, and they were 0-for-8 with five punchouts in Game 4, and that duo cooling off is suddenly a major concern heading into an all-or-nothing Game 5.

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  Jesse RogersOct 8, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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  Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.

CHICAGO — “That is clobbered. Right-center field. That one’s back, Garcia near the wall and … he reaches out and makes the catch. And Tucker absolutely annihilated that.

“There’s a welcome-to-Wrigley Field moment.”

That was the call by Chicago Cubs play-by-play man Jon Sciambi on April 7 when Kyle Tucker flew out against the Texas Rangers after hitting a ball 104.6 mph with a launch angle of 29 degrees and an expected batting average of .880. Instead of clearing the fence, the ball dropped into the glove of right fielder Adolis Garcia — courtesy of the wind, which was blowing in at 17 mph. It was Tucker’s fourth game in his new home ballpark.

“That was an early one I can recall,” the low-key Tucker said this week. “I hit it pretty good off of [Nathan] Eovaldi. It didn’t go out.”

It would be the first of several balls Tucker hit well this season that died on the warning track — and he’s not alone. Once known for high-scoring, back-and-forth games, Wrigley Field has become one of the tougher parks for hitters due to a shift in the wind in recent seasons.

In 81 games played on the North Side this year, including three in the wild-card round last week (the Cubs opened the season with two home games in Japan), the wind blew in 51 times and 12 games featured a right-field-to-left-field crosswind. It only blew out in 19 games. In 2024, the wind blew in 39 times compared with out 21 and 21 games with a crosswind.

“The last two years, it’s blown in, in the summer,” veteran Cubs outfielder Ian Happ said. “When it’s gotten hot, it’s blown in. And that’s basically the opposite of what it was traditionally. Now, when it’s cool, it blows out.

“There doesn’t seem to be a rhyme or reason that we know of but it’s been different.”

Cubs head groundskeeper Dan Kiermaier also can’t pinpoint the reason for the shift, but the man who studies wind patterns for the team can confirm that it is a real trend and not just hitters noticing when the wind works against them.

“It’s kind of bewildering. All my years prior to these past two years, the wind would blow out in the summer. I don’t have a backstory or anything. I can’t really put a finger on why it is the way it is the last couple of years.”

Happ and his fellow hitters are hoping for a shift outward when the National League Division Series resumes Wednesday night at Wrigley as temperatures are expected in the low 60s, but he’s not counting on it. Warm or cool, the Friendly Confines has not been a friend to hitters.

“More than any park I’ve ever played in,” 40 year-old Justin Turner said. “You can’t try to do something different. Hopefully it’s hit hard under the wind and away from a defender.”

Wrigley Field ranked fourth worst for hitters this year in extra distance a ballpark provides, according to Statcast, based on elements that don’t include the temperature. Last year, it ranked 29th. In or out on Wednesday, the Cubs need some runs to stay alive in the postseason as they’re down 2-0 in their best-of-five series against the Milwaukee Brewers. They shouldhave an edge dealing with the home elements considering all the time and energy the team has devoted to it.

“Embrace Wrigley,” hitting coach Dustin Kelly dubbed it. “Instead of shying away and saying the wind is going to kill us today, how do we flip that and use the wind to our advantage today.”

How it impacts hitters

Want to know what mood the Cubs’ hitters are going to be in? Just check which way the Wrigley flags are blowing. Luke Hales/Getty Images

After playing the first two games of the NLDS at Milwaukee’s climate-controlled American Family Field, the initial adjustments for dealing with conditions at Wrigley Field will begin far before the first pitch of Game 3 is thrown.

During their hitter’s meetings before every home game, Kelly shows a graphic of which way the wind is blowing that day. It comes courtesy of Kiermaier, the brother of former major leaguer Kevin Kiermaier. It’s as detailed as it can be, but Chicago isn’t exactly the most predictable of cities when it comes to its weather.

“It’ll switch,” Kelly said. “Our predictions aren’t always perfect but you’re trying to be as prepared for it as you can.”

For some hitters, thinking about the direction of the wind starts well before they get to the park.

“When I drive down Lake Shore Drive and see if the lake is calm or not,” Happ said with a smile.

Dansby Swanson added: “You can’t have it consume you, but it’s also reality. You would be foolish as a player to not take it into consideration when you go play.”

Kelly believes Swanson has been particularly impacted by wind taking away would-be extra-base hits, especially for a right-handed hitter. Just as it did for Tucker against Eovaldi, the ball often dies in right-center — and that was one of Swanson’s preferred places to drive baseballs before coming to Chicago.

“He was really good at it in Atlanta,” Kelly said. “There’s a jet stream that works well for that. He doesn’t have that here.”

“I can’t remember the last time I hit a double to right-center,” Swanson said. “It’s definitely caused its fair share of frustration.”

Of course the wind plays the same for the opponent as it does for Cubs hitters, so in one sense it evens out on a given day — but the difference for opposing hitters is that they’re at Wrigley Field for three games, not 81. Still, Swanson takes some solace in knowing that he is not alone in feeling the frustration of a well-hit ball that results in an out instead of extra bases.

“[Juan] Soto and [Giancarlo] Stanton hit some balls pretty hard last season that stayed in the park,” Swanson recalled. “You could see it in their faces.

“I laugh and I’m like ‘Not here, buddy.'”

So what’s the goal as a hitter when the wind is blowing in? Happ says the tendency is to try to pull the ball, using a player’s strength to that side of the field to hit through the wind. That’s a mistake.

“As a hitter, try to fight that and stay in the middle of the field,” he said. “Best thing you can do is stay with your approach and not worry about it. Easier said than done when you’re looking out there looking for hits.”

How it impacts pitchers

Though a weather report showing the wind blowing in can ruin the day for a hitter, it is always welcome news for the pitchers heading to the mound at Wrigley.

In the 51 games when it did blow in this season, the Cubs and their opponent combined to average just 7.4 runs per game. Those numbers are a stark difference from when the wind isn’t working to a pitcher’s advantage: Teams combined to average 12.4 runs per game when the wind was blowing out, and just under 10 runs when it was deemed a crosswind.

“It could be your best friend or worst nightmare,” St. Louis Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore said. “I remember a ball that Patrick Wisdom hit (in 2024) that was 110 mph at 35 degrees (launch angle). Everyone dropped their head and thought it was gone. It was a routine pop fly to left field. The next time I was there, balls were flying out everywhere.”

For better or worse — depending on the day — the Cubs employ several fly ball pitchers, including Shota Imanaga. Seventeen of the 31 home runs he allowed this season came at home.

“My job is to have them hit fly balls that die on the warning track,” Imanaga said through the team interpreter.

Righty Andrew Kittredge, who was acquired at the trade deadline this year, learned quickly how unpredictable that job can be at Wrigley Field simply by being surrounded by his teammates in the bullpen.

“Someone in the bullpen usually comments on it in the first inning,” he said. “I try not to pay too much attention to it. I can’t let that dictate how I pitch a hitter.”

Catchers have an even more mixed feeling working at Wrigley Field since they would love to see the Wrigley flags blowing out when they are batting, but also know the added challenges those days bring for the pitchers they are working with from behind the plate.

“I look at it every inning,” Cubs catcher Carson Kelly said. “More defensively because if there is a fly ball somewhere where the wind is blowing against it, it might come back to you at some point.

“It’s all-hands-on-deck when a ball goes up in the air.”

What it means for free agency

Whenever the final out of the Cubs’ 2025 season comes, Chicago will immediately be in the offseason spotlight with Tucker likely to be one of this winter’s highest-paid free agents, whether that contract comes from the Cubs or another suitor.

The high-profile free agency comes at a time when the hitting environment at Wrigley Field seems to be a topic among agents more than ever.

After Cody Bellinger hit 26 home runs for the Cubs in 2023, he signed a three-year, $60 million deal with opt-outs, thinking even better offensive days were ahead. But that’s just about the time the conditions began to shift against hitters, and Bellinger hit just 18 home runs in 2024 before being traded to the Yankees over the winter.

Kelly thinks the wind shift in 2024 impacted Bellinger as much as anyone.

“I love him and he’s one of my favorite players I’ve ever coached, it was Belli,” Kelly said. “The way that his swing plays. He doesn’t hit balls 112 or 113 mph. He’s a plus contact, launch-angle guy, but with the wind blowing in from right, it cuts down that ball that is hit at 102 mph at 28 degrees. That’s a homer in a lot of places.”

In fact, Bellinger hit 18 home runs in 80 home games with the Yankees this season and an additional 11 on the road.

Bellinger is represented by Scott Boras, who also is the agent for Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman. When the Cubs were recruiting Bregman to play for them during free agency, they had one thing working against them compared to the team he eventually chose: Wrigley Field vs. Fenway Park.

Bregman wanted more guaranteed dollars to sign with the Cubs — at least five years’ worth — but was willing to take a shorter deal in Boston, with opt-outs, because it has a better hitting environment, according to sources familiar with the situation. Bregman compiled an 0.821 OPS this season, his highest since 2019, and seems likely to opt out of his three-year, $120 million deal.

“I don’t think it’s shying hitters away, but guys are more aware of it now,” Kelly said. “Agents are aware of it.”

Perhaps no player in Chicago is more aware of how the Wrigley wind can affect a player and change over time than Happ, a switch-hitter who has been with the team since 2017. After signing a three-year contract to stay with the Cubs in 2023, Happ will hit free agency again following next season. Happ was asked how the conditions at Wrigley might impact a player who is headed to the open market, like Tucker will be in November.

“Expected (stats) help tell a different story going into free agency, but it doesn’t factor in that you knowthe wind is blowing in,” Happ said. “Mentally, it’s challenging.”

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A massive comeback fueled by home runs from Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm Jr. helped the Yankees avoid elimination and force a Game 4 with a 9-6 win over the Toronto Blue Jays at home Tuesday.

Judge led the charge with a dominant Game 3 performance, going 3-of-4 with four RBI and one home run. Chisholm Jr. added a home run of his own, going 1-of-3 at the plate with one RBI.Â

Eight of the 12 batters in the lineup recorded hits as the Yankees’ offense caught fire. Ben Rice contributed a RBI, Giancarlo Stanton drove in two RBI and Adam Wells went 2-of-4 with one RBI.

Fans praised Judge and Chisholm Jr. for their clutch, game-changing home runs that kept the Yankees’ postseason hopes alive and forced a Game 4 in the ALDS.

The Blue Jays appeared to have run away with the series sweep early, quickly getting out to a 6-1 lead at the middle of the third inning with no signs of slowing.Â

That is until Judge stepped in, notching an RBI in the third and a three-run home run off the foul pole in the bottom of the fourth to tie it up at six a piece.Â

Chisholm Jr. followed Judge in the bottom of the fifth with another home run, a 409 foot bomb to take the lead and open the door for the Yankees the rest of the way as Toronto’s defensive woes kept building.

The Blue Jays’ pitching staff struggled Tuesday as ace Shane Bieber lasted just 2 2/3 innings, giving up five hits and two earned runs.Â

Relievers Mason Fluharty surrendered one earned run on 19 pitches, Louis Varland allowed two, Braydon Fisher gave up one, and Brendon Little added another as Toronto’s bullpen faltered.

The winner of the ALDS between the No. 4 New York Yankees and No. 1 Toronto Blue Jays will advance to face the winner of the series between the  No. 2 Mariners and No. 6 Tigers in the American League Championship Series.

The Yankees and Blue Jays will stay in New York for Game 4 on Wednesday.

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The Mariners took a 2-1 lead in the American League Division Series over the Detroit Tigers with a 8-4 win on the road Tuesday, energizing Seattle and MLB fans with an impressive offensive showing.

Cal Raleigh capped off his stellar Game 3 performance with a two-run, 391-foot homer in the top of the ninth, sealing the Mariners’ victory. Raleigh finished 2-for-4 at the plate with three RBI, finishing with a .462 batting average.

J.P. Crawford added two RBI, going a perfect 2-for-2 with a home run and a .333 batting average. Eugenio Suárez chipped in with a homer and an RBI, while Randy Arozarena added another RBI.

Raleigh and the Mariners’ offense electrified MLB fans as Seattle took Game 3 on the road against the Tigers.

Mariners ace Logan Gilbert set the tone with a dominant performance, posting a 1.50 ERA over six innings while allowing four hits and one earned run with seven strikeouts.

Caleb Ferguson stepped in to close the game in the bottom of the ninth with the Mariners holding an 8-1 lead but struggled, allowing three earned runs on 19 pitches as fans looked on in disbelief. Andrés Muñoz then entered to secure the final outs and seal the win for Seattle.

Detroit starter Jack Flaherty, meanwhile, struggled to find a rhythm against Seattle’s lineup, lasting 3 1/3 innings and giving up four hits, three earned runs and a home run with six strikeouts. Reliever Brant Hurter surrendered a solo homer to Crawford, and closer Brenan Hanifee gave up a two-run shot to Raleigh.

The winner of the ALDS between the No. 2 Mariners and No. 6 Tigers will advance to face the winner of the series between the No. 4 New York Yankees and No. 1 Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Championship Series.

Seattle will play Game 4 in Detroit on Wednesday, with first pitch scheduled for 3:08 p.m. ET.

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Boos poured onto the diamond Monday in Philadelphia. The Phillies, who had lost four of their past five home playoff games dating to the 2023 postseason, were entering the ninth inning with a 4-1 deficit to the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLDS.

Closer Jhoan Durán was heading to the mound without a chance for a save for the second time in three days in front of a sea of red normally enthralled by his theatrical light-show entrance.

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Although the Phillies rallied in the bottom half of the frame, their comeback bid fell one run short, and they fell into an 0-2 hole against the Dodgers, with an elimination game in California looming.

When asked Tuesday about the boos and if the the Philly crowd can work against the home team, star first baseman and two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper pushed back against that narrative.

“I don’t feel that way. I love playing in the Bank,” he said.

“I love our fans. I boo myself when I get out. I’m the same way. And I trust in what they do. They show up for us every day, day in and day out. So if we deserve to be booed or if we deserve to — you know, they spend their hard-earned dollar to come watch us play. They expect greatness out of us. I expect greatness out of myself and my teammates as well. … We got some of the best fans in baseball. I don’t know. They make me play better. So I enjoy it.”

Harper is part of a struggling top three that normally fuels the Phillies’ offense. Shortstop Trea Turner, the NL batting champion, Kyle Schwarber, who smashed 56 home runs this year, and Harper are a combined 2-for-21 with 11 strikeouts and four walks in two games of the division series.

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[Get more Phillies news: Philadelphia team feed]

Typically at his best with the Phillies in October, Harper’s heroics have been missing this time around, including in the sixth inning Monday, when he whiffed at Blake Snell sliders outside the zone.

Harper is well aware of the expectations facing his NL East-champion Phillies, who had the best record at home during the regular season.

The question Harper fielded Tuesday followed comments from his teammate, right fielder Nick Castellanos, who breathed life into the stadium with a two-RBI double that made it a 4-3 game with no outs in the bottom of the ninth before he was tagged out at third on a subsequent bunt attempt by second baseman Bryson Stott.

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Manager Rob Thomson’s bunt call was scrutinized afterward, and so was Castellanos’ baserunning.

“The stadium is alive on both sides, right?†Castellanos said postgame. “When the game is going good, itâ€s wind at our back. But when the game is not going good, itâ€s wind in our face. The environment can be with us, and the environment can be against us.”

Philadelphia has now dropped five of its past six home playoff games. The days of its 2022 run to the World Series, during which the Philly home crowd felt like a distinct advantage, seem far away.

The Phillies now have to win two games in L.A. to keep their season alive and have a chance to return home for a decisive Game 5 and win back their passionate fans.

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Image credit:
Bubba Chandler (Photo by Edward M. Pio Roda/Getty Images)

In conjunction with the Baseball America study published today on the connection between fastball velocity and career longevity, we’re continuing our deep dive into velocity with a look at the newest wave in MLB’s ever-rising fastball arms race.

Below, you can find velocity data for all 105 rookie starting pitchers in 2025. While Jacob Misiorowski and Bubba Chandler averaged 99 mph or higher, they don’t even rank among the top five in velocity delta among those pitchers considered in our study. This is because the average fastball velocity was so much lower in the late 2000s and early 2010s than it is now.

Read More About Velocity

In the table below, you’ll find both raw average fastball numbers and a corresponding “velocity delta,” which simply illustrates how each pitcher compared to league average for same-handed MLB starters this season.

Average Fastball Velocity For All 105 Rookie Starting Pitchers In 2025

PitcherAVG FB
VELOVELOCITY
DELTAPITCH
HANDJacob Misiorowski99.24.9RBubba Chandler99.04.7RRyan Zeferjahn98.74.4RGrant Taylor98.64.3RChase Burns98.44.1RCam Schlittler98.03.7RChase Dollander97.83.5RPayton Tolle96.03.2LLuis Morales97.33.0RDavid Morgan97.33.0RJack Leiter97.02.7RCade Cavalli97.02.7RBraxton Ashcraft96.92.6RTroy Melton96.62.3RCarson Seymour96.62.3RBen Casparius96.62.3RJackson Jobe96.11.8RMick Abel96.11.8RSean Reynolds96.11.8RRoki Sasaki961.7RDidier Fuentes961.7RBrandon Sproat961.7RChase Petty961.7RJustin Wrobleski94.41.6LHurston Waldrep95.91.6RJayden Murray95.91.6RShane Smith95.71.4RCade Horton95.71.4RKumar Rocker95.71.4RRichard Fitts95.71.4RJack Perkins95.71.4RAJ Smith-Shawver95.61.3RBlade Tidwell95.61.3RMike Burrows95.51.2RBraydon Fisher95.51.2RHunter Dobbins95.41.1REaston Lucas93.70.9LConnelly Early93.70.9LJonah Tong95.20.9RCaden Dana95.20.9RNolan McLean95.10.8RLake Bachar950.7RDietrich Enns93.20.4LMike Vasil94.70.4RTrey Yesavage94.70.4RRyan Rolison93.10.3LAdam Mazur94.60.3RTravis Adams94.60.3RRobert Gasser930.2LBradley Blalock94.50.2RJonathan Bowlan94.50.2RJack Dreyer92.90.1LBrad Lord94.40.1RAnthony Veneziano92.80LMcCade Brown94.30RMason Barnett94.30RVictor Mederos94.30RSean Burke94.2-0.1RCarson Whisenhunt92.6-0.2LChad Patrick94.1-0.2RPaxton Schultz94.1-0.2RRyan Gusto94-0.3RGrant Holman94-0.3RParker Messick92.4-0.4LAJ Blubaugh93.9-0.4RNoah Cameron92.3-0.5LBrandon Young93.8-0.5RElvin Rodríguez93.8-0.5RYoendrys Gómez93.7-0.6RBrady Basso92-0.8LGunnar Hoglund93.5-0.8RSam Aldegheri91.9-0.9LJustin Sterner93.4-0.9RWill Warren93.3-1RJ.T. Ginn93.3-1RJoey Cantillo91.7-1.1LBrandon Walter91.7-1.1LRyan Bergert93.2-1.1RKai-Wei Teng93.1-1.2RChayce McDermott93.1-1.2RIan Seymour91.4-1.4LLogan Henderson92.9-1.4RJustin Hagenman92.9-1.4RColton Gordon91.3-1.5LTomoyuki Sugano92.8-1.5RLogan Evans92.8-1.5RTrevor McDonald92.8-1.5RAndrew Alvarez91.2-1.6LCade Gibson91.1-1.7LShinnosuke Ogasawara90.9-1.9LMichael McGreevy92.4-1.9RTanner Gordon92.3-2RJacob Lopez90.7-2.1LKyle Hart90.5-2.3LBrandon Eisert90.4-2.4LLuis F. Castillo91.9-2.4RSawyer Gipson-Long91.9-2.4RMitch Farris90.3-2.5LThomas Harrington91.8-2.5RCarson Palmquist90.2-2.6LPierson Ohl91.5-2.8RConnor Gillispie91.2-3.1RCaleb Boushley91.2-3.1RDoug Nikhazy89.6-3.2LAllan Winans89.6-4.7RSource: Baseball Savant

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(Photo by Mark Brown / Getty Photos)

Today, Baseball America published a study on the relationship between velocity and MLB longevity for starting pitchers.

To build a player pool for our research, we targeted MLB starting pitchers who debuted from 2008-2015 and 1.) had more starts than relief appearances in their first two MLB seasons and 2.) pitched at least 60 innings. We did this to sift out emergency starters who made only one or two appearances, as we wanted to focus on pitchers who at least began their MLB career as starting pitchers, even if some would eventually transition to relief roles.

Read More About Velocity

For those who want to get even deeper into the nitty gritty details or conduct further research on their own, we’ve presented below the full list of 236 pitchers included in the study. Data includes each pitcher’s average fastball velocity in their debut season, as well as a “velocity delta,” which illustrates how each pitcher compared to league average for same-handed MLB starters in that season.

All 236 Starting Pitchers Included In Our Velocity Study

PitcherAVG
VELOVELOCITY
DELTAPitch
HANDDEBUT
SEASONStephen Strasburg97.66R2010Noah Syndergaard97.75.1R2015Clayton Kershaw955.1L2008David Price955.1L2008Matt Moore965.1L2011Rubby De La Rosa96.44.7R2011Josh Outman94.64.7L2008Gerrit Cole96.84.6R2013Steven Matz95.94.4L2015Kevin Gausman96.64.4R2013Danny Salazar96.54.3R2013Wily Peralta964.2R2012James Paxton95.14.2L2013Alex Meyer96.64R2015Matt Harvey95.63.8R2012Jarred Cosart963.8R2013Joe Kelly95.53.7R2012Max Scherzer95.13.6R2008Michael Pineda95.13.4R2011Alex Colome95.63.4R2013Nathan Eovaldi953.3R2011Zack Wheeler95.43.2R2013Luis Severino95.83.2R2015Eduardo Rodriguez94.63.1L2015Bud Norris94.83.1R2009Danny Duffy943.1L2011Mat Latos94.83.1R2009Kyle Drabek94.63R2010Allen Webster95.23R2013Henderson Alvarez94.62.9R2011Juan Nicasio94.52.8R2011Brett Anderson93.22.7L2009Chris Archer94.42.6R2012Vince Velasquez95.22.6R2015Johnny Cueto94.12.6R2008Derek Holland93.12.6L2009Taijuan Walker94.82.6R2013Mitchell Boggs94.12.6R2008Lance Lynn94.22.5R2011Tom Koehler94.32.5R2012Lance McCullers95.12.5R2015Carlos Rodon93.92.4L2015Alfredo Simon93.92.4R2008Tyler Matzek93.42.3L2014Daniel Hudson942.3R2009Jordan Zimmermann93.92.2R2009Jacob deGrom94.52.2R2014Ivan Nova93.82.2R2010Tyler Chatwood93.92.2R2011Jimmy Nelson94.42.2R2013Jon Gray94.72.1R2015Mike Wright94.72.1R2015Jarrod Parker93.82.1R2011Vin Mazzaro93.82.1R2009Jake Arrieta93.62R2010Julio Teheran93.72R2011Jorge Lopez94.62R2015Shane Greene94.32R2014Marcus Stroman94.21.9R2014David Purcey91.81.9L2008Sonny Gray941.8R2013Ricky Romero92.31.8L2009Alex White93.51.8R2011Yu Darvish93.51.7R2012Martin Perez92.71.7L2012Shelby Miller93.51.7R2012Roenis Elias92.81.7L2014Trevor Bauer93.41.6R2012Justin Grimm93.41.6R2012Carlos Carrasco93.31.6R2009Michael Wacha93.81.6R2013Brian Matusz92.11.6L2009Tanner Roark93.71.5R2013Erasmo Ramirez93.31.5R2012Jeff Niemann931.5R2008Nate Karns93.71.5R2013Christian Friedrich92.51.5L2012Matt Wisler941.4R2015Zack Britton92.41.4L2012Tony Cingrani92.41.4L2012Brad Peacock93.11.4R2011Randall Delgado93.11.4R2011Robbie Ray92.41.3L2014Eddie Butler93.61.3R2014Anthony DeSclafani93.51.2R2014TJ House92.21.1L2014Tommy Hanson92.81.1R2009Chris Tillman92.71R2009Matt Harrison90.91L2008Rafael Montero93.31R2014Taylor Jordan93.21R2013Corey Kluber92.60.9R2011Vance Worley92.40.8R2010Archie Bradley93.40.8R2015Brad Lincoln92.40.8R2010Patrick Corbin91.80.8L2012Mike Minor91.70.8L2010Wei-Yin Chen91.80.8L2012Wade Davis92.50.8R2009Sean West91.30.8L2009Kyle Gibson92.90.7R2013Drew Hutchison92.50.7R2012Burch Smith92.90.7R2013Casey Kelly92.50.7R2012Brett Cecil91.10.6L2009Gio Gonzalez90.40.5L2008Chris Bassitt92.80.5R2014Jeremy Hellickson92.10.5R2010Masahiro Tanaka92.80.5R2014Daniel Norris91.60.5L2014Collin Balester920.5R2008Cody Anderson93.10.5R2015Adam Conley91.90.4L2015Alex Cobb92.10.4R2011Tommy Hunter91.80.3R2008John Lamb91.80.3L2015David Huff90.70.2L2009Erik Johnson92.40.2R2013Anthony Ranaudo92.50.2R2014Wade Miley91.10.2L2011Clayton Richard90.10.2L2008Dan Straily91.90.1R2012Chi Chi Gonzalez92.70.1R2015Brandon Beachy91.70.1R2010Matthew Boyd91.60.1L2015Hyun Jin Ryu910.1L2013Jacob Turner91.80.1R2011Alex Wood90.90L2013Zach McAllister91.70R2011Jeanmar Gomez91.60R2010Brett Oberholtzer90.90L2013Nick Tepesch92.20R2013Aaron Brooks92.30R2014Shairon Martis91.50R2008Jose Quintana90.9-0.1L2012Nick Martinez92.2-0.1R2014Joe Ross92.5-0.1R2015Matt Andriese92.5-0.1R2015Casey Coleman91.5-0.1R2010Taylor Jungmann92.5-0.1R2015Alex Sanabia91.5-0.1R2010Alec Asher92.5-0.1R2015Jonathon Niese89.8-0.1L2008Charlie Morton91.3-0.2R2008Rick Porcello91.5-0.2R2009Travis Wood90.7-0.2L2010Jeff Locke90.7-0.2L2011Tyler Lyons90.7-0.2L2013Jhoulys Chacin91.4-0.3R2009Liam Hendriks91.4-0.3R2011Asher Wojciechowski92.3-0.3R2015Brandon Cumpton91.9-0.3R2013Robbie Erlin90.6-0.3L2013Jake Odorizzi91.4-0.4R2012Andrew Heaney90.7-0.4L2014Jesse Hahn91.9-0.4R2014Greg Reynolds91.1-0.4R2008Chase Anderson91.8-0.5R2014Chris Volstad91-0.5R2008Colin Rea92-0.6R2015Jeremy Hefner91.2-0.6R2012Jonathan Pettibone91.6-0.6R2013Jordan Lyles91-0.7R2011Drew Pomeranz90.2-0.7L2011Matt Shoemaker91.5-0.7R2013Madison Bumgarner89.7-0.8L2009Kendall Graveman91.5-0.8R2014Chase Whitley91.5-0.8R2014Brad Hand90.1-0.8L2011Marco Gonzales90.2-0.9L2014Anthony Swarzak90.8-0.9R2009Blake Beavan90.8-0.9R2011Justin Nicolino90.6-0.9L2015Andre Rienzo91.3-0.9R2013Jerad Eickhoff91.6-1R2015Odrisamer Despaigne91.3-1R2014David Buchanan91.3-1R2014Scott Richmond90.5-1R2008Pedro Hernandez90-1L2012Sean Nolin89.9-1L2013Nick Tropeano91.2-1.1R2014Aaron Nola91.4-1.2R2015Trevor Cahill90.4-1.3R2009Collin McHugh90.5-1.3R2012Sean O’Sullivan90.4-1.3R2009Tyler Duffey91.2-1.4R2015Cole De Vries90.4-1.4R2012Scott Diamond89.5-1.4L2011Clayton Mortensen90.3-1.4R2009Henry Owens90.1-1.4L2015Zach Davies91.1-1.5R2015Dillon Gee90.1-1.5R2010A.J. Griffin90.3-1.5R2012Junichi Tazawa90.2-1.5R2009A.J. Cole91.1-1.5R2015Barry Enright90.1-1.5R2010Chris Waters88.4-1.5L2008Marc Rzepczynski88.8-1.7L2009Vidal Nuno89.2-1.7L2013Todd Redmond90.1-1.7R2012Mike Leake89.8-1.8R2010Kyle Lobstein89.3-1.8L2014Greg Smith88.1-1.8L2008Josh Tomlin89.7-1.9R2010Tyler Wilson90.7-1.9R2015Randy Wells89.6-1.9R2008Brad Bergesen89.8-1.9R2009Adam Morgan89.6-1.9L2015Manny Banuelos89.6-1.9L2015Chris Rusin89-2L2012Dylan Axelrod89.7-2R2011Stephen Fife89.8-2R2012Dallas Keuchel88.9-2.1L2012David Holmberg88.8-2.1L2013Craig Stammen89.5-2.2R2009Luke French88.2-2.3L2009Brad Mills88.1-2.4L2009Kyle Hendricks89.8-2.5R2014Eddie Bonine89-2.5R2008Eric Surkamp88.4-2.5L2011Tommy Milone88.3-2.6L2011Mike Fiers88.9-2.8R2011Mike Bolsinger89.5-2.8R2014Williams Perez89.8-2.8R2015Luis Atilano88.8-2.8R2010Matt Maloney87.6-2.9L2009Doug Fister88.7-3R2009Josh Geer88.4-3.1R2008Chris Heston89-3.3R2014John Ely88.3-3.3R2010Brian Johnson87.8-3.7L2015Wade LeBlanc86.1-3.8L2008Josh Collmenter87.8-3.9R2011J.D. Martin87.8-3.9R2009Andrew Albers86.7-4.2L2013Tyler Cloyd87.2-4.6R2012Source: Baseball Savant

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Gerrit Cole (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

When studying how starting pitcher velocity corresponds to MLB success and longevity, we found a clear correlation between between pitchers who throw harder and those who have longer careers.

But this poses another question: How much more injury risk do those hard-throwing pitchers face?

The answer appears to be quite significantly more.

In our comprehensive study on velocity, we examined 236 MLB starting pitchers who debuted between 2008 and 2015—check out the story for complete data parameters—and looked at average fastball velocity in their MLB debut season compared to league averages for same-handed starters.

To account for injuries, we also logged the total number of 60-day injured list appearances for each pitcher, as we considered 60-day IL stints as a useful proxy for serious ailments. Pitchers might go on the 15-day IL with a minor ankle sprain or a tweaked muscle, but a 60-day IL trip means a pitcher missed at least two months in recovery from some sort of significant injury. Note that we didnâ€t break these IL stints down by type of injury, so a pulled hamstring, oblique injury or concussion all count equally here.

One notable finding was that almost any pitcher who pitches in the majors for numerous seasons will eventually get seriously hurt. Of the 19 pitchers in the study who threw 2,000+ MLB innings, David Price was the only one who didn’t have a 60-day IL stint.

It should perhaps go without saying, but the act of throwing a baseball over and over in high-stress environments is not conducive to good health. That goes for any pitcher, regardless of velocity. Of the 236 pitchers included in our study, we charted 394 separate 60-day IL stints.

But looking at the data, we find that the pitchers who throw harder are also more likely to get hurt:

VELO COMPARED
TO MLB AVERAGEAVG 60-DAY
IL STINTS> +2 mph2.81+1 to +2 mph1.95-0.9 to 0.9 mph1.52-2 to -1 mph0.80< -2 mph0.59

We wanted to make sure to control for different pitchers†career longevity, so we also looked at IL stints in comparison to 1,000 innings pitched. And while the disparity between hard-throwing and softer-throwing pitchers diminished, it did not disappear entirely:

VELO COMPARED
TO MLB AVERAGEIL STINTS
PER 1,000 IP> +2 mph3.63+1 to +2 mph3.64-0.9 to 0.9 mph3.40-2 to -1 mph2.57< -2 mph2.56

If there’s one surgical procedure that immediately jumps to mind when considering pitching injuries, it’s the Tommy John surgery used to fix torn ulnar collateral ligaments in the elbow. With that in mind, we also tracked pitchers who had Tommy John surgery by using Jon Roegeleâ€s excellent Tommy John database.

What we found was a similar trend.

The risk of a serious elbow injury was most prevalent among the pitchers who threw hardest. But because those pitchers were also the ones who pitched the longest in the majors, their Tommy John rate per 1,000 MLB innings pitched was actually lower than that of pitchers with average and well below-average velocity.

It’s important to note that we only logged MLB innings when looking at Tommy John surgery rate. As such, the high rate of TJ surgeries per innings pitched found in the group throwing 2 mph or more below league average was affected by these players’ limited ability to stick in the majors.

VELO COMPARED
TO MLB AVERAGETJ Surgery%TJ Surgeries
PER 1000 IP> 2 mph57.4%1.03+1 to +2 mph24.3%0.96-0.9 to 0.9 mph39.8%1.58-2 to -1 mph14.3%0.96< -2 mph29.6%2.70

Therein lies the conundrum. While throwing harder did increase the prevalence of injury for starting pitchers in the study, it also increased the opportunities to get hurt, as pitchers who throw harder have much longer MLB careers than those who donâ€t throw as hard.

Ultimately, because we’ve found that throwing harder correlates to success and longevity, the risk of injury seems to be outweighed by the risk of ineffectiveness when it comes to establishing an MLB career.

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