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The 2025 MLB division series matchups are starting to take shape with the Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees all moving on one day after the Los Angeles Dodgers became the first team to advance out of the wild-card round.

L.A.’s sweep sets up a division series showdown with the Philadelphia Phillies in one NLDS with the Cubs set to face the Milwaukee Brewers in the other.

Meanwhile, in the American League, the Tigers are headed west to take on the Seattle Mariners, and the Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays will square off in an AL East duel.

What have we learned about each team so far? What does each remaining team need to do to move on to the league championship series? Which players could be October difference-makers? And which favorites should be on upset watch in the round ahead?

ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield are here to break it all down as every division series matchup is set.

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ALDS: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire

Upset forecast:(Blue Jays win 47.4% of simulations.) Forecasts like this spur fundamental questions best left to the ancient Greeks, like, “What is the essence of an upset?” The Blue Jays won the AL East, beat the Yankees in eight of their 13 meetings, and earned a first-round bye and the AL’s top seed. But the Yankees more than doubled the Jays’ run differential. The disconnect between runs and wins can be explained easily: Toronto went 43-30 in games decided by one or two runs; New York was 35-36.

The analytical precept is that non-close games are more telling when it comes to team quality. The Yankees went 33-15 in games decided by five or more runs; the Blue Jays were 25-23. Finally, in terms of run differentials, the Blue Jays were the AL’s second-best home team, behind Texas. But the Yankees were the league’s best road team.

All of this is a long way of saying that Toronto has the higher seed and the home-field advantage, but it is not the favorite in this series.

Blue Jays concern level:Red hot. The Jays’ regular season success sent fan expectations soaring. Could the three-decade title drought be quenched at last? — Doolittle

New York Yankees

What has impressed you most about the Yankees this season?

Their power. The Yankees led baseball with 274 home runs this season. The Dodgers were second with 244. New York had seven players hit at least 20. Anthony Volpe fell one short. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are all-time sluggers, but Trent Grisham (34 homers), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (31), Cody Bellinger (29) and Ben Rice (26) give the Yankees the deepest power bank in the majors. Hitting the ball over the fence has proven key for postseason success in recent years. And the Yankees have been doing it better than everyone else all year.

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Why will/won’t it continue against the Blue Jays?

It will continue against the Blue Jays because Blue Jays pitchers recorded the highest home run rate among postseason participants this year. Jose Berrios surrendered 25. Chris Bassitt gave up 22. Kevin Gausman yielded 21. Closer Jeff Hoffman gave up 15 — the second most in baseball among relievers. Bassitt is expected to be available for the ALDS after finishing the season on the injured list, but Berríos is unlikely to appear in the series. In October run-scoring environments, a mistake or two could make the difference.

Which one player must deliver for them to keep their run going?

The Yankees reached the World Series last year without Judge performing to his MVP-level expectations, causing a stir for another edition of his postseason struggles. But those Yankees had Juan Soto and a red-hot Stanton working their October magic. While the Yankees’ lineup is deeper than a year ago, Judge is the motor. And his career success against Toronto suggests he should have a huge series. Judge has a career .300/.420/.597 slash line with 41 home runs in 133 games against the Blue Jays. This year, he batted .325 with three home runs and a 1.118 OPS in 56 appearances across 13 games. He has crushed Gausman (1.283 OPS in 61 plate appearances), Berríos (1.195 OPS in 44 plate appearances) and Bassitt (.935 OPS in 28 plate appearances) over his career. This, on paper, is an ideal matchup for a two-time AL MVP looking to exorcise October postseason demons. — Castillo

Toronto Blue Jays

What carried the Blue Jays to an October bye?

A propensity to put the ball in play and strong defense. The Blue Jays’ 17.8% strikeout rate this season was the lowest in the majors and the sixth-lowest by a club since 2015. Two of the five teams with lower rates — the 2015 Kansas City Royals and 2017 Houston Astros — won the World Series.

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Defensively, Toronto ranked fourth in the majors in defensive runs saved and ninth in Outs Above Average. In short, it puts pressure on teams to make plays, and it makes the plays themselves. It’s a sound combination for October when every out is crucial.

Why will/won’t it continue against the Yankees?

It won’t continue against the Yankees because stringing together hits in October, when the pitching rises to another level, is difficult. The Blue Jays tied for 11th in the majors with 191 home runs during the regular season — a solid output with George Springer (32) leading the way followed by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (23), Addison Barger (21) and Daulton Varsho (20). But that pales in comparison to New York. The Yankees blasted 274 homers — 30 more than the second-ranked Dodgers. New York had seven players club at least 20 — and Anthony Volpe fell one short. Power plays in October, and the Yankees have the substantial edge.

Which one player must deliver to put Toronto in the ALCS?

The Blue Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500 million contract to serve as the franchise’s cornerstone for another 14 years. The assignment includes impressing when it matters most. Guerrero is just 3-for-22 with one extra-base hit, two walks and five strikeouts in six career playoff games divided into two-game slices over three postseasons. It’s a small sample size, but the Blue Jays went 0-6 in those games. Guerrero now has a chance to fuel a deep October run after another strong regular season. — Castillo

NLDS: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Upset forecast:(Brewers win 56.2% of simulations) The Hiawatha Series! Yes, we tend to label these geographic rivalries with the interstates that connect them but in this case, let’s go with the Amtrak line that runs back and forth between Milwaukee and Chicago every day.

This is the first postseason edition and the Brewers, who posted baseball’s best record and run differential, are the statistical favorites. But the reasons to pick the Cubs are many: They offset many of Milwaukee’s advantages in speed and defense, and have more power. The Brewers’ pitching staff was better overall but struggled with health down the stretch. The Brewers have youth and the most athletic position group in the majors; the Cubs have more star power, especially if Kyle Tucker gets going.

Upset? The Cubs would be no Cinderella if they knock off Milwaukee, but the good people of Wisconsin would indeed be very upset.

Brewers concern level: Moderate. Losing to the hated Cubs would be a crusher, but this is an unflappable Brewers team, full of the hubris of youth. The clubhouse is upbeat and tightly knit, and this still-overlooked group will be aching to not only dispatch their rivals but also to show the nation why they were baseball’s best during the season. — Doolittle

Chicago Cubs

What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?

The talk going into the series was how the Padres’ bullpen — which was arguably the best in baseball in the regular season — was dominant enough to maybe carry the Padres all the way to the World Series.

The Cubs’ bullpen? It wasn’t really generating a lot of hype.

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This group has kind of been reconstructed on the fly throughout the season, but it looks really good right now. The secret weapon is veteran journeyman Brad Keller, who only had three saves in the regular season, but had a terrific year after adding 4 mph to his fastball and is now closing after Daniel Palencia got injured in September and missed a couple of weeks. (He’s back now.)

Why will/won’t it continue against the Brewers?

Why not? The numbers are legit. Keller is throwing 98 and had a 2.07 ERA. Palencia hit 100 mph in his Game 1 appearance. Drew Pomeranz, brought in from the Mariners in April, is a good lefty option who had a 2.17 ERA. Andrew Kittredge got a hold in Game 1, started Game 2 as the opener and got the save in Game 3 after Keller’s sudden control issues. Caleb Thielbar gives them a second good lefty. That’s a strong group that Craig Counsell can mix and match with and provide for a Cubs rotation without rookie Cade Horton, one of the best starters in the majors in the second half.

Which one player must deliver for them to keep their run going?

The second-half slides of Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong received a lot of attention, but Seiya Suzuki’s own slump was just as important to the Cubs’ offensive struggles in the second half. Suzuki hit .263 with an .867 OPS through the All-Star break but .213 with a .688 OPS after.

Given that Tucker is playing through some injury issues and Crow-Armstrong has struggled to make adjustments after his big first half, the Cubs need Suzuki to deliver and he did that with a big home run in Game 1 against the Padres. — Schoenfield

Milwaukee Brewers

What carried the Brewers to an October bye?

Pitching, defense, speed and timely hitting. Only the Rangers and Padres allowed fewer runs than the Brewers as Milwaukee had a good balance between starting pitching (third in the majors in ERA) and bullpen (sixth in ERA). The Brewers ranked first in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric and second in the majors with a .279 average with runners in scoring position — two keys to them finishing third in runs scored despite ranking just 22nd in home runs.

Why will/won’t it continue against the Cubs?

The Brewers weren’t a popular pick to reach the World Series precisely because many believe this formula won’t work as well in the postseason as it did in the regular season. Maybe that’s unfair, but the numbers are clear: You have to hit more home runs than your opponents to win in October. That can still happen for Milwaukee, but the Brewers will likely need some non-home run hitters to step up with some power.

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The other concern arose because of a couple key injuries to the pitching staff, with Trevor Megill, the Brewers’ closer most of the season, returning from a lengthy absence and starter Brandon Woodruff battling a lat strain and not pitching since Sept. 17.

Which one player must deliver to put Milwaukee in the NLCS?

Brice Turang could be the guy who proves a surprising source of power. He finished with a solid 18 home runs, but was even better in the second half when he hit .308/.380/.536 with 12 home runs in 63 games. As the production increased, manager Pat Murphy moved Turang into a middle-of-the-order spot in the lineup more often down the stretch. On the other hand, Turang also hit just one home run in his final 23 games. — Schoenfield

ALDS: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners

Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Upset forecast:(Mariners win 51.6% of simulations) The Mariners’ baseline is slightly better because of their much better finish to the season than Detroit’s woeful ending but over the full 162-game slate, they had only a five-run edge in differential. In other words, if Detroit were to beat Seattle, it would at best be a very mild upset. The Tigers could get two Tarik Skubal starts in the ALDS on normal rest, Game 2 in Seattle and a potential decisive Game 5 at T-Mobile Park. That, as much as anything, makes Detroit a threat to advance to the ALCS. Their late-season swoon was considerable but what we’ve seen over the past week is a Tigers club that has already shaken that off.

Mariners concern level: Historic. Seattle knows it’s facing a tough opponent but they match up well with the Tigers. But when you’ve never been to the World Series, there is a baseline level of concern that is always going to be kind of high. — Doolittle

Detroit Tigers

What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?

Give the Tigers credit for turning the page on their near-catastrophic September that saw them blow the biggest final-month lead in MLB history by beating the team that edged them for the division crown in the wild-card round.

Of course, it helped to have the ultimate momentum changer in Tarik Skubal in Game 1. Skubal’s 14-strikeout performance was a postseason masterpiece and sets up this possibility: Can he pull a Madison Bumgarner circa 2014 and put his team on his back for an entire month?

Why will/won’t it continue against the Mariners?

Here’s the good news for the Tigers: Skubal can start in Game 2 of the ALDS on four days of rest. Then, thanks to two off days, if the series goes five games he can start Game 5 on four days of rest. Skubal started back-to-back games on four days of rest only once all season since he generally worked on five or more days, but that one time turned out just fine: In the second of those starts, he allowed one hit with 13 strikeouts.

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So, yes, Skubal’s dominance can continue, but they’ll need others on the staff to step up against a Seattle offense that was the best in baseball in September. The performance against Cleveland was encouraging, but Cleveland’s lineup is not Seattle’s lineup.

Which one player must deliver for them to pull off the upset?

Besides Skubal? Let’s go with a pair here: Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize. The Tigers are in the unique position of having arguably the best pitcher on the planet and also not really having a fourth starter, so it’s crucial they get something from at least one of their other two starters in the games Skubal doesn’t pitch. Neither made it through five innings in the wild-card round and Detroit is going to need more length than that to get past Seattle. — Schoenfield

Seattle Mariners

What carried the Mariners to an October bye?

We all know the Mariners can pitch. The problem in recent years has been the offense. This year was different. The Mariners sprinted past the shorthanded Astros in September to win the AL West with Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez carrying the offensive surge.

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Seattle led the majors in runs scored, home runs and wRC+ in September. They were second in OPS and wOBA. Combined with that potent pitching staff, the Mariners ripped off 11 straight wins and 17 wins in 18 games to comfortably reach the postseason with a bye — and emerge as a trendy pick to reach the World Series.

Why will/won’t it continue against the Tigers?

It will continue against the Tigers because even Skubal struggled to handle the Mariners in their two meetings during the regular season. Skubal didn’t complete six innings in either start, tossing 5â…” innings in Seattle on April 2 and five innings at home on July 11. He combined to allow seven runs on 10 hits. October is another beast, of course, and Skubal is coming off a historic performance in Cleveland. Even if he is dominant, the Tigers’ pitching staff faces a steep challenge. If he’s not, the Tigers’ chances to advance are very slim.

Which one player must deliver to put Seattle in the ALCS?

Raleigh could end up winning AL MVP, but Rodriguez might be the team’s most important hitter in October. Rodriguez made the All-Star team again this summer, but he was a significantly better hitter post-All-Star break — continuing his trend as a late-season performer. The center fielder led the Mariners in batting average, wRC+, OPS and fWAR in the second half. As the man tasked to protect Raleigh in the lineup, a strong showing from Rodriguez could force pitchers to attack Raleigh — and that’s a tough recipe for success for opposing teams. — Castillo

NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire

Upset forecast:(Dodgers win more simulations) Why no number in that parenthetical information? We’d have to use too many decimals! The Dodgers did win more sims, but their edge was four — out of 10,000 runs of the forecasting machinery. In that sense, there can’t possibly be an upset in this matchup between, quite possibly, the two strongest teams left in the bracket.

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This feels like a matchup that the bullpens will decide, and even that is a toss-up. The Dodgers led the majors in blown saves during the second half, but their bullpen numbers are better than Philadelphia’s since the start of September. Maybe it’s as simple as this: When in doubt, pick the team that has Shohei Ohtani.

Phillies concern level: Nonexistent. Look, the Phillies know who they are playing. But with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Cristopher Sanchez and Jhoan Duran on their side, this is not a team that is going to fret about anything. They will just wait for the adrenaline to flow. — Doolittle

Los Angeles Dodgers

What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?

The Dodgers haven’t really run out their “A” team for most of the season as they babied their starters for much of the season, but now we can see how good this team can be with a healthy rotation. Blake Snell was dominant in the first game until finally tiring in the seventh. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the seasonlong ace for the Dodgers, was solid in Game 2, escaping a bases-loaded no-outs jam in the sixth. The Dodgers were confident enough in those two that they saved Ohtani for what would have been Game 3 — and now is Game 1 of the NLDS. Oh, Ohtani can hit a little, too. Remember, the Dodgers won it all last season with Ohtani having a good-but-not-great postseason at the plate. After his two-homer game in Game 1 this postseason, watch out.

Why will/won’t it continue against the Phillies?

The Dodgers certainly have to love where they are. Ohtani slowly worked his way up to a normal workload and pitched six innings in his final start, throwing 91 pitches. He allowed just one run over his final four appearances and surrendered just three home runs in 47 innings. Thanks to having three potential off days to play five games in this series, Ohtani could start Game 5 on six days of rest.

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After his initial one-inning appearances in June, Ohtani was given at least six days off between starts, and his three starts in September came with eight, 10 and six days of rest, and he will have 10 days before his Game 1 NLDS appearance. The Dodgers will worry about the NLCS if they get there.

Which one player must deliver for L.A. to move on?

This is clearly about players, plural — as in relief pitchers. The sketchy Dodgers bullpen didn’t ease the confidence of Dodgers fans — or Dave Roberts — with a poor showing in Game 1 against Cincinnati, when the Dodgers had a 10-2 lead only to see the bullpen start walking everybody and the Reds load the bases and have the tying run on deck. Who Roberts trusts in the highest-leverage situations — and can deliver — remains a question. But there is hope Roki Sasaki can be a part of the answer after his strong showing in Game 2 against the Reds. — Schoenfield

Philadelphia Phillies

What carried the Phillies to an October bye?

The starting rotation and a monster season from Kyle Schwarber. The rotation led the NL in ERA and led the majors — by 51 innings — in innings pitched. Cristopher Sanchez led the way with an absolute monster season of his own — in fact, it was Sanchez, and not Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal, who led the majors in Baseball-Reference WAR. Meanwhile, Schwarber led the NL with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs, including setting a major league record with 23 home runs as a left-handed batter against left-handed pitchers.

Will it continue against the Dodgers?

Of course, a large part of that rotation success was Zack Wheeler, but he’s out for the postseason. Ranger Suarez had a terrific season but wasn’t great his final three starts, allowing 12 runs and four home runs in 14â…“ innings. And the fourth starter after Jesus Luzardo is either Aaron Nola, who doesn’t exactly inspire confidence given his 6.01 ERA and mediocre postseason results in his career, or Walker Buehler, who was signed at the end of August after the Red Sox released him. In other words: There are at least some slight concerns here for a rotation that was so good.

As for Schwarber: He has proved before he’s a tough out in October, and coming off his best season, he’s primed for a big postseason.

Which one player must deliver to put Philadelphia in the NLCS?

Trea Turner feels like the key guy here. Schwarber and Bryce Harper have been clutch playoff performers throughout their careers, but the Phillies will need offense from more than just those two — and that’s been a problem the past two postseasons. Turner had his best season with the Phillies but missed most of September with a hamstring injury, returning only for two at-bats in the final game of the regular season. He sets the table for Schwarber and Harper. If he’s getting on base, that’s a very good thing. — Schoenfield

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