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Nekias Duncan & Steve Jones kick off this Friday podcast reacting to the Las Vegas Aces’ 90-88 last second win over the Phoenix Mercury to go up 3-0 in a WNBA Finals series that may end tonight in Arizona. The guys break down A’ja Wilson’s impressive 34 point performance and what the Mercury can do to avoid a sweep on Friday night. They also break down the recently announced WNBA All-Defensive Teams which Aâ€ja Wilson, Alanna Smith, Alyssa Thomas, Napheesa Collier & Gabby Williams nominated to the first team.
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Later in the show, Nekias & Steve break down the NBA’s Southeast division heading into the 2025-2026 season. Will the Orlando Magic take advantage of a wounded Eastern Conference and elevate deeper into the playoffs with Desmond Bane joining Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and company? Are the Miami Heat able to get out of the muddled middle or will they be a trade deadline seller?
Finally, the guys break down some injury news affecting both conferences. First and foremost, LeBron James will miss at least the first 2-3 weeks of the season with a right sciatica. For the first time ever, LeBron will miss a season opener, which will just feel strange all around. How will Lakers fans and the league as a whole react?
Also, the hits just keep on coming for the Indiana Pacers as T.J. McConnell will also miss at least 4 weeks to start the season with a right hamstring injury. With Tyrese Haliburton already out with an Achilles injury suffered in last June’s Finals Game 7, can the Pacers backcourt catch a break?
(0:00) – Aces take Finals Game 3, what will happen in Game 4?
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(23:45) – Orlando Magic season preview
(39:05) – Atlanta Hawks season preview
(50:40) – Miami Heat season preview
(1:03:00) – Charlotte Hornets season preview
(1:11:10) – Washington Wizards season preview
(1:18:50) – LeBron James to miss opening 2-3 weeks of season
(1:23:10) – Indiana Pacers injuries keep stacking up
🖥ï¸Watch thisfull episode on YouTube
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Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young and Orlando Magic F Paolo Banchero are two of the brightest stars in the Southeast Division heading into the 2025-2026 NBA season. (Photos by Sam Hodde/Getty Images; David Jensen/Getty Images)
(Photos by Sam Hodde/Getty Images; David Jensen/Getty Images))
Oct 10, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
This is October baseball at its finest!
It’s time for a win-or-go-home Game 5 in the American League Division Series between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers at T-Mobile Park.
The Tigers, who entered these playoffs as the No. 6 seed, will look to ride their momentum from a dominant Game 4 win in Detroit on Wednesday to a second consecutive victory. The Mariners, the No. 2 seed with home field advantage, hope to secure their first trip to the American League Championship Series since 2001.
Which team will come out on top to face the Toronto Blue Jays for the AL pennant?
We’ve got you covered with pregame lineups and the keys to Game 5 along with takeaways after the final out.
Series tied 2-2
Game 5 starters: Tarik Skubal vs. George Kirby
Key to winning Game 5 for Seattle:In 1997, Hall of Famer Randy Johnson went 20-4 with a 2.28 ERA for the Mariners. One team, however, had his number: He started five times against the Orioles, including twice in the ALDS, and the Mariners lost all five games.
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Skubal is the 2025 version of Johnson — and the 2025 Mariners seem to have his number. In his second start of the season, the Mariners beat him 3-2. In July, they scored four runs off of him in five innings, including a Julio Rodriguez home run, and won 12-3. In Game 2 of this series, Jorge Polanco homered twice as Skubal left trailing 2-0, with the Mariners eventually winning 3-2. Three Skubal starts, three Mariners victories.
Now, Seattle has to do it a fourth time, and the pitching staff will have to shut down the Tigers. It’s hard to string together hits against Skubal, so the Mariners will need to hit a home run or two (when Skubal doesn’t allow a home run this year, he’s 12-1). They won’t necessarily try to run up his pitch count — since they might try to attack early in the count and avoid his wipeout change — but Skubal has thrown more than 100 pitches just four times this season, so trying to do that and get him out after six innings is another potential path to victory. Mostly, the Mariners will need a hero to step up and beat the best pitcher in the AL. — David Schoenfield
Key to winning Game 5 for Detroit:Yes, the most-cited stat related to this series is Seattle’s 3-0 record when facing Skubal this season. That fact can be taken as a source of optimism (We have his number!) or anxiety (No way we beat that guy a fourth time!). But the Mariners have done a solid job of getting into hitter’s counts against Skubal and then doing damage once they do. At the same time, the Tigers haven’t scored in the early innings of any of those games, which has also been a problem during the postseason. Scoring a couple of runs early would be huge for Detroit and for Skubal, as it would allow him to attack the zone and avoid those hitter’s counts. I don’t really think the Mariners have Skubal’s number, but he’s not infallible. He doesneed his offense, however, to give him at least a sliver of a margin for error. — Bradford Doolittle
Lineups
Tigers
TBD
Mariners
TBD
It’s time for a pair of a Game 4s in the National League Division Series after the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies avoided getting swept out of the MLB playoffs.
Will the Cubs and Phillies on Thursday force decisive Game 5s — or will the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers move on to the NLCS?
We’ve got you covered with pregame lineups and keys along with takeaways after the final out of each game.
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers (6:08 p.m. ET)
Los Angeles leads series 2-1
Game 4 starters:Cristopher Sanchez vs. Tyler Glasnow
How the Phillies can even the series:The Phillies have the edge in the starting pitcher comparison, with Game 1 starter Sanchez, coming off a regular season in which he was one of the top five starters in baseball and an excellent outing in Game 1, going on four days of rest vs. Glasnow, who hasn’t pitched much the past two-plus weeks and battled some control issues down the stretch (and walked two of the eight batters he faced in a Game 1 relief appearance).
Thanks to Ranger Suarez’s great effort on Wednesday, the bullpen will be in good shape as well, so the path to victory is a shutdown effort from Sanchez and then the high-leverage relievers (with a better performance than they provided in Game 1). No doubt, the offensive game plan will be to get Glasnow to run up his pitch count and then get the soft underbelly of the Dodgers’ bullpen into the game earlier than Dave Roberts would like. Oh, and a Bryce Harper home run mixed in there will help as well. — David Schoenfield
Lineups
Phillies
TBD
Dodgers
TBD
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (9:08 p.m. ET)
Milwaukee leads series 2-1
Game 4 starters:TBD vs. TBD
How the Cubs can even the series: With their pitching leaning closer to shambles than full-go, the Cubs’ best bet to even the series is by scoring more runs than they have in any of their first six postseason games. They finally got to four runs for the first time this October — all coming in the first inning of Game 3 — then stopped there. In fact, they haven’t scored a run from the second inning on in either of the last two games. After using all their top relievers on Wednesday, there’s no guarantee they’ll be as sharp on Thursday, so a few innings with crooked numbers on the board offensively could make the difference for Chicago. — Jesse Rogers
Lineups
Brewers
TBD
Cubs
TBD
The 2025-26 NHL season begins Tuesday with a tripleheader on ESPN: Chicago Blackhawks-Florida Panthers at 5 p.m. ET (including the Stanley Cup banner-raising), Pittsburgh Penguins-New York Rangers at 8 p.m., and Colorado Avalanche-Los Angeles Kings at 10:30 p.m.
But we’re looking beyond those contests.
Will the Panthers three-peat as Stanley Cup champions? Which teams will finish the season atop the division standings? And which players will take home the major individual awards?
We’ve gathered our cross-platform ESPN hockey family together to predict the winners of each division, along with the Stanley Cup champion and the players who will win all of the hardware.
Dive deep on all 32 teams
Lapsed fan’s guide to the season
Bold predictions for every club
Fantasy hockey hub page
Goalie mask guide for 2025-26
Atlantic Division
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Sean Allen: Maple Leafs
John Buccigross: Lightning
Stormy Buonantony: Lightning
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Maple Leafs
Sach Chandan: Lightning
Meghan Chayka: Lightning
Ryan S. Clark: Lightning
Ray Ferraro: Lightning
Emily Kaplan: Lightning
Tim Kavanagh: Senators
Rachel Kryshak: Lightning
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Lightning
Steve Levy: Maple Leafs
Vince Masi: Lightning
Victoria Matiash: Lightning
Sean McDonough: Lightning
AJ Mleczko: Lightning
Mike Monaco: Lightning
Arda Öcal: Lightning
T.J. Oshie: Lightning
Kristen Shilton: Maple Leafs
P.K. Subban: Lightning
John Tortorella: Panthers
Bob Wischusen: Lightning
Greg Wyshynski: Lightning
Totals: Lightning (19), Maple Leafs (4), Senators (1), Panthers (1)
Metropolitan Division
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Sean Allen: Devils
John Buccigross: Hurricanes
Stormy Buonantony: Hurricanes
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Hurricanes
Sach Chandan: Devils
Meghan Chayka: Hurricanes
Ryan S. Clark: Hurricanes
Ray Ferraro: Hurricanes
Emily Kaplan: Hurricanes
Tim Kavanagh: Devils
Rachel Kryshak: Hurricanes
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Hurricanes
Steve Levy: Devils
Vince Masi: Hurricanes
Victoria Matiash: Devils
Sean McDonough: Rangers
AJ Mleczko: Hurricanes
Mike Monaco: Hurricanes
Arda Öcal: Devils
T.J. Oshie: Capitals
Kristen Shilton: Hurricanes
P.K. Subban: Capitals
John Tortorella: Devils
Bob Wischusen: Hurricanes
Greg Wyshynski: Hurricanes
Totals: Hurricanes (15), Devils (7), Capitals (2), Rangers (1)
Central Division
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Sean Allen: Stars
John Buccigross: Avalanche
Stormy Buonantony: Avalanche
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Avalanche
Sach Chandan: Avalanche
Meghan Chayka: Avalanche
Ryan S. Clark: Avalanche
Ray Ferraro: Stars
Emily Kaplan: Avalanche
Tim Kavanagh: Avalanche
Rachel Kryshak: Stars
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Stars
Steve Levy: Stars
Vince Masi: Avalanche
Victoria Matiash: Stars
Sean McDonough: Stars
AJ Mleczko: Stars
Mike Monaco: Avalanche
Arda Öcal: Stars
T.J. Oshie: Stars
Kristen Shilton: Stars
P.K. Subban: Wild
John Tortorella: Wild
Bob Wischusen: Avalanche
Greg Wyshynski: Avalanche
Totals: Avalanche (12), Stars (11), Wild (2)
Pacific Division
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Sean Allen: Oilers
John Buccigross: Oilers
Stormy Buonantony: Golden Knights
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Golden Knights
Sach Chandan: Golden Knights
Meghan Chayka: Golden Knights
Ryan S. Clark: Golden Knights
Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights
Emily Kaplan: Golden Knights
Tim Kavanagh: Golden Knights
Rachel Kryshak: Oilers
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights
Steve Levy: Kings
Vince Masi: Golden Knights
Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights
Sean McDonough: Oilers
AJ Mleczko: Golden Knights
Mike Monaco: Oilers
Arda Öcal: Golden Knights
T.J. Oshie: Golden Knights
Kristen Shilton: Golden Knights
P.K. Subban: Oilers
John Tortorella: Golden Knights
Bob Wischusen: Golden Knights
Greg Wyshynski: Oilers
Totals: Golden Knights (17), Oilers (7), Kings (1)
Stanley Cup
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Sean Allen: Panthers
John Buccigross: Hurricanes
Stormy Buonantony: Golden Knights
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Jets
Sach Chandan: Avalanche
Meghan Chayka: Avalanche
Ryan S. Clark: Stars
Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights
Emily Kaplan: Panthers
Tim Kavanagh: Stars
Rachel Kryshak: Stars
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights
Steve Levy: Kings
Vince Masi: Avalanche
Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights
Sean McDonough: Oilers
AJ Mleczko: Avalanche
Mike Monaco: Oilers
Arda Öcal: Maple Leafs
T.J. Oshie: Oilers
Kristen Shilton: Stars
John Tortorella: Devils
Bob Wischusen: Panthers
Greg Wyshynski: Avalanche
Totals: Avalanche (5), Golden Knights (4), Stars (4), Panthers (3), Oilers (3), Hurricanes (1), Jets (1), Kings (1), Maple Leafs (1), Devils (1)
Hart Trophy (MVP)
Sean Allen: Kirill Kaprizov
John Buccigross: Connor McDavid
Stormy Buonantony: Jack Eichel
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Connor McDavid
Sach Chandan: Nathan MacKinnon
Meghan Chayka: Nathan MacKinnon
Ryan S. Clark: Kirill Kaprizov
Ray Ferraro: Nikita Kucherov
Emily Kaplan: Nathan MacKinnon
Tim Kavanagh: Nathan MacKinnon
Rachel Kryshak: Connor McDavid
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Nikita Kucherov
Steve Levy: Connor McDavid
Vince Masi: Connor McDavid
Victoria Matiash: Nikita Kucherov
Sean McDonough: Connor McDavid
AJ Mleczko: Connor McDavid
Mike Monaco: Connor McDavid
Arda Öcal: Connor McDavid
T.J. Oshie: Connor McDavid
Kristen Shilton: Auston Matthews
P.K. Subban: Kirill Kaprizov
John Tortorella: Kirill Kaprizov
Bob Wischusen: Connor McDavid
Greg Wyshynski: Nathan MacKinnon
Totals: McDavid (11), MacKinnon (5), Kaprizov (4), Kucherov (3), Eichel (1), Matthews (1)
Art Ross Trophy (points leader)
Sean Allen: Connor McDavid
John Buccigross: Connor McDavid
Stormy Buonantony: Nikita Kucherov
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Connor McDavid
Sach Chandan: Nikita Kucherov
Meghan Chayka: Connor McDavid
Ryan S. Clark: Mitch Marner
Ray Ferraro: Connor McDavid
Emily Kaplan: Nathan MacKinnon
Tim Kavanagh: Nikita Kucherov
Rachel Kryshak: Connor McDavid
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Nikita Kucherov
Steve Levy: Kirill Kaprizov
Vince Masi: Connor McDavid
Victoria Matiash: Nikita Kucherov
Sean McDonough: Connor McDavid
AJ Mleczko: Mitch Marner
Mike Monaco: Connor McDavid
Arda Öcal: Connor McDavid
T.J. Oshie: Nikita Kucherov
Kristen Shilton: Nathan MacKinnon
P.K. Subban: Connor McDavid
John Tortorella: Kirill Kaprizov
Bob Wischusen: Connor McDavid
Greg Wyshynski: Nathan MacKinnon
Totals: McDavid (12), Kucherov (6), MacKinnon (3), Marner (2), Kaprizov (2)
Rocket Richard Trophy (goals leader)
Sean Allen: Auston Matthews
John Buccigross: Auston Matthews
Stormy Buonantony: Connor McDavid
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Auston Matthews
Sach Chandan: Leon Draisaitl
Meghan Chayka: Leon Draisaitl
Ryan S. Clark: Nikita Kucherov
Ray Ferraro: Leon Draisaitl
Emily Kaplan: Leon Draisaitl
Tim Kavanagh: Kirill Kaprizov
Rachel Kryshak: Leon Draisaitl
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Auston Matthews
Steve Levy: Leon Draisaitl
Vince Masi: Brayden Point
Victoria Matiash: Auston Matthews
Sean McDonough: Leon Draisaitl
AJ Mleczko: Auston Matthews
Mike Monaco: Auston Matthews
Arda Öcal: Auston Matthews
T.J. Oshie: Leon Draisaitl
Kristen Shilton: Auston Matthews
P.K. Subban: Jake Guentzel
John Tortorella: Connor McDavid
Bob Wischusen: Auston Matthews
Greg Wyshynski: Leon Draisaitl
Totals: Matthews (10), Draisaitl (9), McDavid (2), Kucherov (1), Kaprizov (1), Point (1), Guentzel (1)
Norris Trophy (best defenseman)
Sean Allen: Cale Makar
John Buccigross: Cale Makar
Stormy Buonantony: Shea Theodore
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Cale Makar
Sach Chandan: Zach Werenski
Meghan Chayka: Cale Makar
Ryan S. Clark: Cale Makar
Ray Ferraro: Quinn Hughes
Emily Kaplan: Zach Werenski
Tim Kavanagh: Quinn Hughes
Rachel Kryshak: Cale Makar
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Cale Makar
Steve Levy: Quinn Hughes
Vince Masi: Quinn Hughes
Victoria Matiash: Quinn Hughes
Sean McDonough: Cale Makar
AJ Mleczko: Quinn Hughes
Mike Monaco: Cale Makar
Arda Öcal: Cale Makar
T.J. Oshie: Cale Makar
Kristen Shilton: Quinn Hughes
P.K. Subban: Lane Hutson
John Tortorella: Quinn Hughes
Bob Wischusen: Cale Makar
Greg Wyshynski: Rasmus Dahlin
Totals: Cale Makar (12), Hughes (8), Werenski (2), Theodore (1), Hutson (1), Dahlin (1)
Vezina Trophy (best goaltender)
Sean Allen: Jake Oettinger
John Buccigross: Jake Oettinger
Stormy Buonantony: Jake Oettinger
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Connor Hellebuyck
Sach Chandan: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Meghan Chayka: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Ryan S. Clark: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Ray Ferraro: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Emily Kaplan: Jake Oettinger
Tim Kavanagh: Jacob Markstrom
Rachel Kryshak: Igor Shesterkin
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Steve Levy: Jake Oettinger
Vince Masi: Linus Ullmark
Victoria Matiash: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Sean McDonough: Igor Shesterkin
AJ Mleczko: Jake Oettinger
Mike Monaco: Jake Oettinger
Arda Öcal: Andrei Vasilevskiy
T.J. Oshie: Connor Hellebuyck
Kristen Shilton: Igor Shesterkin
P.K. Subban: Andrei Vasilevskiy
John Tortorella: Sergei Bobrovsky
Bob Wischusen: Igor Shesterkin
Greg Wyshynski: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Totals: Vasilevskiy (9), Oettinger (7), Shesterkin (4), Markstrom (1), Ullmark (1), Bobrovsky (1)
Calder Trophy (rookie of the year)
Sean Allen: Alexander Nikishin
John Buccigross: Ivan Demidov
Stormy Buonantony: Ivan Demidov
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Ivan Demidov
Sach Chandan: Michael Misa
Meghan Chayka: Ivan Demidov
Ryan S. Clark: Ivan Demidov
Ray Ferraro: Ivan Demidov
Emily Kaplan: Zeev Buium
Tim Kavanagh: Jimmy Snuggerud
Rachel Kryshak: Ivan Demidov
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Ivan Demidov
Steve Levy: Zeev Buium
Vince Masi: Jimmy Snuggerud
Victoria Matiash: Jimmy Snuggerud
Sean McDonough: Ivan Demidov
AJ Mleczko: Zeev Buium
Mike Monaco: Ivan Demidov
Arda Öcal: Yaroslav Askarov
T.J. Oshie: Ryan Leonard
Kristen Shilton: Ivan Demidov
P.K. Subban: Matthew Schaefer
John Tortorella: Ryan Leonard
Bob Wischusen: Ivan Demidov
Greg Wyshynski: Alexander Nikishin
Totals: Demidov (12), Buium (3), Snuggerud (3), Nikishin (2), Leonard (2), Misa (1), Askarov (1), Schaefer (1)
SEATTLE — They are the faces of the franchise and on whose shoulders the Mariners have staked their present and future. Players who are already on their way to superstardom and who could reach heights of perpetuity in this region if this playoff run ends with a parade.
Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez, the blue-collar catcher who crushes 60 homers and the five-tool center fielder who loves the spotlight. They make a dynamic duo at the top of the Mariners†lineup, and they delivered in a huge way on Sunday night.
Raleigh yanked a double into the right-field corner with one out in the eighth inning, then RodrÃguez positioned him to race home by going full alley-oop with a double of his own, this one into left. Those back-to-back knocks answered a tense Tigers rally a half-inning prior and lifted Seattle to a 3-2 victory in Game 2 of this American League Division Series that, by all measures, was in must-win territory.
“This was a bounce-back game for us,†Mariners manager Dan Wilson said. “And they did just that.â€
On an emotional level, it was the Mariners†first postseason win at T-Mobile Park since Game 5 of the 2001 ALDS — the longevity of which quite literally brought fans to tears.
RodrÃguez has embraced that emotion, speaking loftily on the Mariners†ambitions despite their organizational lack of experience on this stage. And he could be the perfect embodiment to changing that narrative — a player whoâ€s been in the big leagues for four years now, whoâ€s off to a promising career but also whoâ€s mostly been defined by potential rather than proven.
Which made Sunday arguably his biggest moment yet.
“This has to be No. 1,†RodrÃguez said. “We haven’t had a time like this here in a while, so being able to deliver a win tonight as a team I think was really special for me. Just to see the fans and the way they got going, it was very special. I’m always going to hold that memory in my heart.â€
After taking a gut-punch defeat in Game 1, the Mariners have evened this series as it shifts to Detroit — and more critically, they did do so against Detroitâ€s Tarik Skubal, making them the first team to defeat the all-world ace three times in the same season.
Had they gone down 2-0, even in a best-case scenario, they wouldâ€ve had to win both Games 3 and 4 at Comerica Park just to force a winner-take-all Game 5 back in Seattle, where theyâ€d again face Skubal. That possibility still looms, even with a split in Detroit. But the Mariners proved to both the Tigers — and themselves — that they can punch back.
“More importantly, to come and answer back as a team,†RodrÃguez said. “I felt like Cal got it going right there, and I was really happy to be able to follow through on that.â€
Essentially, Rodriguez and the Mariners landed the final blow in Game 2.
Seattle held Detroit scoreless all night until the eighth inning, when the Tigers tied the game with a two-run, inside-out double that Spencer Torkelson sliced down the right-field line, off the wall in foul territory and into No Manâ€s Land. That came immediately after Matt Brash walked leadoff man Gleyber Torres then had to work around an uncharacteristic error from first baseman Josh Naylor that put the tying run on base.
With momentum fleeting, the Mariners were cognizant — and confident — when it was their turn to respond, having knocked Skubal out of the game at that point. And when the Tigers called on reliever Kyle Finnegan, Raleigh and RodrÃguez immediately answered.
“It’s not difficult,†RodrÃguez said. “I feel like we’re in it to win it, you know? And it doesn’t matter what really happened — if they take the lead or anything like that, they tie it up. We know what the goal is about the game, and there is not really time to feel sorry about what happens. … Just stay in the moment.â€
Among five arms, the Mariners surrendered just three hits — their fewest in franchise history in a postseason game — and were anchored by their Rock, whose nickname is attached to that moniker.
Luis Castillo labored early, needing 51 pitches to clear the second inning, but settled in after, with just nine pitches in the third and fourth each. His task wasnâ€t necessarily to out-pitch or even outlast Skubal, but rather, keep Seattleâ€s offense within striking distance. And he delivered, surrendering zero hits through his first 18 batters, before Torres punched an opposite-field single off him with two outs in the fifth.
That knock, which came after Castilloâ€s fourth walk, put runners on the corners and Wilson in a nearly identical spot to the decision that proved his most costly in Game 1 — with his starter at a palatable pitch count (85), but power threat Kerry Carpenter on deck.
This time, however, Wilson turned to leverage lefty Gabe Speier, who was warming the night prior when George Kirby served up a decisive, two-run homer. And this time, Speier bailed the Mariners out of the jam with a massive strikeout.
Just after, Castillo was seen on the dugoutâ€s top step clenching his right fist — the gesture synonymous with his nickname, La Piedra, which is Spanish for the rock.
“When Speier came out there, I stayed because I wanted to show my support, and especially in these moments right now,†Castillo said through an interpreter. “That’s the best you can do, is try and show your support. And it doesn’t matter who comes out there, you kind of know they’re going to get the job done.â€
Speier was the first in another extended line of relief, the caboose of which was Andrés Muñoz, who — one day after pitching two innings, his most in his Mariners career — locked down his first postseason save.
The two-time All-Star ensured that there would be no counter act, and that if the Mariners eventually face elimination in this ALDS, it wouldnâ€t happen on a night when their backs were against the wall.
SEATTLE — Heâ€s been the Mariners†X-factor all year, with sneaky slug potential and has seemingly been right in the thick of things when their offense plays to its ceiling.
Which made Jorge Polanco the perfect player to rise to the occasion on Sunday night in Game 2 of the American League Division Series.
Seattleâ€s second baseman hit two huge homers off all-world ace Tarik Skubal that gave the Mariners†pitching staff cushion to operate in a tense showdown that ended in a 3-2 victory for the Mariners to even the series.
Polanco became just the fourth player — and first since 2021 — to homer twice in the same game vs. Skubal, whoâ€s the front-runner to win his second straight AL Cy Young Award and is widely regarded as the best pitcher on the planet.
“We all know what he does,†Polanco said of Skubal, whoâ€d surrendered just two homers on his slider in the regular season and zero homers to a second baseman. “We know what he throws. Heâ€s got pretty good pitches, heâ€s got a pretty good fastball. I came up there just trying to get a good pitch to hit, just hit to the middle of the field and put it straight on.â€
Polanco also became the first Mariners hitter to homer twice in a postseason game since Jay Buhner in Game 3 of the 1995 AL Championship Series.
“I was feeling pretty good,†Polanco said. “I didn’t know what was coming. Like I said, I just have a good approach, stay to the middle so I can recognize the second that it starts.â€
Beyond the power, Polanco aided Seattleâ€s arms with a pair of nifty plays in the field.
In the third, he scooped a one-hopper directly in front of him for the second out to help Luis Castillo go toe-to-toe with Skubal. Then in the fifth, he corralled a grounder to his right and flipped it to shortstop J.P. Crawford for the force at second base and the second out. That set up the tensest at-bat of the night, when Gabe Speier relieved Castillo and shut down Kerry Carpenter — Detroitâ€s hero from Game 1 — to strand runners on the corners.
This season has represented a resounding rebound for Polanco, who nearly one year ago to the day had just undergone surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee — an injury that he played through for virtually all of 2024, and one that significantly impacted his production. He posted career-worsts in batting average (.213), on-base percentage (.296) and OPS (.654), which led the Mariners to decline a $12 million club option at the outset of free agency last winter.
Yet within a lineup thatâ€s been buoyed by power in 2025, Polanco has quietly been one of the Mariners†most productive, slashing .265/.326/.495 (.821 OPS) with 26 homers and 78 RBIs.
“We all knew what he was going through, and we all had his back,†said Julio RodrÃguez, who backed Polanco with Seattleâ€s game-winning hit later in Game 2. “We also knew how much he cared about the team last year. And just to see him going through it and showing up every single day, he inspired me a lot, I’ve got to say, just in the way that he went about his business.
“He’s put in a lot of work, and I’m so, so happy that he’s having success again and enjoying the game of baseball that he loves.â€
The Mariners knew better than anyone about the limitations he faced in ‘24, which is why they were comfortable bringing him back in free agency on a one-year, $7 million contract that included a $750,000 buyout. That deal also included a vesting player option for 2026, which he achieved last month by accumulating 450 plate appearances — an incentive tied to his health — and which he can now exercise for $6 million.
“That was my main focus during the offseason, just like trying to stay healthy,†Polanco said. “And it’s really motivated me to do it. I just feel really good.â€
Given his production this season, however, it’s possible that Polanco instead attempts to test the open market for a more lucrative deal this winter — but he still has plenty left to play for, springboarded by the biggest night of his Mariners career.
The 2025 MLB division series started with a bang on a four-game Saturday.
The Milwaukee Brewers rode a six-run first inning to a dominant win over the Chicago Cubs in the first game of the day. A second pair of division rivalries faced off as the Toronto Blue Jays slugged their way to an almost double-digit thumping of the New York Yankees. Then, in a highly anticipated NLDS showdown, Shohei Ohtani started his first career postseason game as the Los Angeles Dodgers took a late lead to secure a win over the Philadelphia Phillies.
In the final matchup of the night, the Detroit Tigers took the lead in the 11th inning to secure a thrilling Game 1 victory against the Seattle Mariners.
We’ve got you covered with all the action from Day 1, from the top moments to postgame takeaways from every matchup.
Key links: Mega-preview | Series outlooks | Bracket | Schedule
Jump to:
Takeaways | Top Moments
Takeaways
Detroit leads series 1-0
The Tigers nearly collapsed at the end of the end of regular season, barely hung on to a playoff spot and then took two of three in Cleveland. Now, they’ve won Game 1 of the ALDS against Seattle — on the night before their ace, Tarik Skubal, takes the mound. On Saturday, Troy Melton, the rookie right-hander coming off a brutal showing in the wild-card round, provided four quality innings. Kerry Carpenter came up with a big two-run homer against an electric George Kirby. Zach McKinstry provided a two-out, run-scoring single in the 11th inning. And, in the end, Keider Montero retired the top of the Mariners’ order to secure the victory, continuing a dominant effort from basically the entire Detroit bullpen. Keep counting out the Tigers all you want; they keep finding a way. — Alden Gonzalez
Los Angeles leads series 1-0
The Dodgers were reeling. Down 3-0, facing Cristopher Sanchez, at the house of horrors that is Citizens Bank Park, they were at risk of dropping Game 1 against Philadelphia. Then, Enrique Hernández whacked a two-run double that helped chase Sanchez. And Teoscar Hernandez followed with a three-run, opposite-field home run off reliever Matt Strahm. And with Tyler Glasnow, Alex Vesia and Roki Sasaki throwing three scoreless innings, the Dodgers took Game 1 on the strength of their depth more than their stars showing out. Los Angeles showed last October that its depth is as much a hallmark as its stars. As this series continues with the Dodgers having home-field advantage after securing a win on the road, the Phillies know the challenge ahead: There is no such thing as a safe lead against Los Angeles. — Jeff Passan
Toronto leads series 1-0
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Add Saturday’s sixth inning to the vault of Aaron Judge’s October troubles. Toronto’s Kevin Gausman cruised through five scoreless innings, needing just 50 pitches to secure 15 outs, before finding trouble. Anthony Volpe drove a leadoff double, Austin Wells smacked a single, and Trent Grisham walked to load the bases for Judge. The Yankees’ superstar had singled off Gausman in the first inning for his fifth hit (all singles until that point) of this postseason, and Judge has more career home runs off Gausman than any other pitcher in his career. It was a prime opportunity to supply his first major moment in these playoffs. But Judge fell short, striking out on a 3-2 slider down and away that would’ve been ball four. Cody Bellinger followed with a walk to score a run, but that’s all the Yankees scored in the frame — and in the game — after Ben Rice popped out and Giancarlo Stanton struck out.
The Blue Jays, meanwhile, didn’t waste their opportunities. They went 5-for-10 with runners in scoring position as they chased Luis Gil in the third inning and forced the Yankees to use five relievers. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homered. Alejandro Kirk homered twice. Rogers Centre, hosting its first postseason game since 2016, roared with each of the 10 runs scored. — Jorge Castillo
Milwaukee leads series 1-0
The decision to start Matthew Boyd on three days’ rest backfired on the Cubs so quickly that it’s impossible not to point to that choice as the turning point in Game 1.
Boyd wasn’t sharp down the stretch of the regular season, and after throwing 58 pitches on Tuesday, there were questions around whehter he could return to the mound so quickly and be effective. It was a head-scratching decision considering the team had a more-than-capable starter in Javier Assad ready to pitch after he was left off the wild-card roster. But Assad didn’t make the NLDS roster either — Cubs manager Craig Counsell called that a tough call — making the whole situation confusing. The Cubs blew this game long before Boyd lasted just two-thirds of an inning in Saturday’s opener. — Jesse Rogers
Top moments from Day 1
Tigers at Mariners
Detroit breaks 2-2 tie in the 11th to take the lead and win Game 1
ZACH MCKINSTRY GIVES THE @TIGERS THE LEAD IN THE 11TH! #ALDS pic.twitter.com/6OSA01Kngq
— MLB (@MLB) October 5, 2025
“Julio” chants are loud in Seattle as J-Rod RBI ties the game
The “JULIO” chants are LOUD in Seattle 🫶#ALDS pic.twitter.com/okyudDvMNL
— MLB (@MLB) October 5, 2025
One swing flips the game — and Tigers take the lead
THAT’S #POSTSEASON KERRY BONDS â€¼ï¸ pic.twitter.com/6XqWY3Wgiq
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) October 5, 2025
J-Rod gives Seattle crowd its first home playoff home run in 24 years
JULIOOOOOOOOO! 🔱#ALDS pic.twitter.com/WHIZhzk4nW
— MLB (@MLB) October 5, 2025
What a special moment at T-Mobile Park
Sweet Lou!
Lou Piniella, who managed the @Mariners‘ 116-win 2001 campaign, tossed the ceremonial first pitch tonight at T-Mobile Park! pic.twitter.com/a4iu10KqHD
— MLB (@MLB) October 5, 2025
Dodgers at Phillies
Roki Sasaki earns his first MLB save in Dodgers win
Roki Sasaki earns his first Major League save in #NLDS Game 1! pic.twitter.com/IXZlh5FHqU
— MLB (@MLB) October 5, 2025
Teoscar Hernandez hits three-run blast to give L.A. its first lead
TEOSCAR HERNÃNDEZ!@DODGERS LEAD! #NLDS pic.twitter.com/XeygIPFj4t
— MLB (@MLB) October 5, 2025
Dodgers get on the board thanks to a double from Enrique Hernandez
#Postseason Kiké has arrived 👀
The @Dodgers pull within a run! #NLDS pic.twitter.com/sOl62jaS35
— MLB (@MLB) October 5, 2025
J.T. Realmuto triples to give the Phillies an early lead
REAL-LY CLUTCH! pic.twitter.com/MNrSWIPfo6
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) October 4, 2025
Cristopher Sanchez strikes out the side to begin Game 1 — starting with Shohei Ohtani
Cristopher Sánchez strikes out Shohei Ohtani on 3 pitches!
We’re off and running in Philly 😤 #NLDS pic.twitter.com/X1icrRm6Zb
— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2025
Yankees at Blue Jays
Jays players hyped after Game 1 win
GAME ONE = GAME WON! #WANTITALL pic.twitter.com/aQ6sK3px0I
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) October 5, 2025
Toronto piles on with four-run inning
Vladdy tacks on another!
FOUR-run inning for the @BlueJays! #ALDS pic.twitter.com/xTYYr0fKhW
— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2025
Jays get out of zero-out, bases-loaded jam with just one run given up
The @BlueJays escape the jam with the lead intact! pic.twitter.com/N6j375R6BQ
— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2025
Alejandro Kirk joins in on the HR fun
VAMOS, CAPI 🫡
Kirky’s first Postseason blast! #WANTITALL pic.twitter.com/Y2G19r5hvu
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) October 4, 2025
Jays bust out new postseason home run jacket
THE NEW POSTSEASON HOME RUN JACKET! #WANTITALL pic.twitter.com/VfJTDCoFkQ
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) October 4, 2025
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gives the Jays an early lead against Yankees
VLADDY GETS US STARTED 💥
His FIRST Postseason #PLAKATA! pic.twitter.com/3cEC3WCeE0
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) October 4, 2025
Cubs at Brewers
Milwaukee finishes off a dominant Game 1
The @Brewers take Game 1 in convincing fashion! #NLDS pic.twitter.com/Ta8mbNwqKL
— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2025
Brewers bat around, put up six runs in first inning
JACKSON HAS TWO HITS IN THE FIRST INNING AND IT IS 6-1 pic.twitter.com/uMZ98AspUX
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) October 4, 2025
Brewers answer in a hurry
THREE straight doubles and the @Brewers are in front! #NLDS pic.twitter.com/a7seA05Lj1
— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2025
Cubs come out swinging in Milwaukee
START US UP, MICHAEL. pic.twitter.com/gSBFRJBTRE
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) October 4, 2025
SEATTLE — The Tigers have been on the road for nearly two weeks. They are bringing a new meaning to the nickname Gritty Tigs.
“Everybody’s coming in trying to get laundry done,†reliever Tommy Kahnle said after the Tigers†3-2 win in 11 innings over the Mariners to open their AL Division Series on Saturday night. “Guys are running out of underwear. We’re running out of socks. It’s been interesting. And we’re all just riding it, enjoying the moment.â€
They are running short on clean clothes. They are not running short on fortitude.
Here they were, the Tigers†traveling road show, their gear and clothes in various states of wear, having to bear the brunt of the noise from a sellout crowd of 47,290 that echoed through T-Mobile Park from Troy Meltonâ€s first pitch to Keider Monteroâ€s last. They had just weathered the hostile crowd in Cleveland for three games. This was another level.
“This atmosphere is unbelievable,†reliever Tyler Holton said. “I haven’t quite seen an atmosphere like this, just from every pitch, being loud. Whether they were pitching or hitting, it didn’t matter. It was pretty awesome to see and experience. But this is playoff baseball. This is what you want.â€
The only feeling better than hearing the sheer noise of this crowd at T-Mobile Park was silencing it.
“Silencing a crowd, there’s probably no better feeling,†said first baseman Spencer Torkelson, who scored the go-ahead run on Zach McKinstryâ€s two-out single through the middle in the 11th inning. “It’s a special feeling, especially because it’s not easy when the crowd’s insanely loud. So when it’s quiet, it’s like, ‘Whew.’ You can think.â€
When Torkelson fielded Josh Naylorâ€s ground ball and stepped on the bag for the final out, sending the crowd out the gates, he could finally think about what the win meant.
The Tigers weathered the frenetic energy of the Mariners†postseason opener, the electric fastball of George Kirby and the formidable arms of the Seattle bullpen. And after Saturdayâ€s victory, they have a chance to ride the mighty left arm of Tarik Skubal and take a commanding lead in the best-of-five series back to Comerica Park, where they havenâ€t played a game since Sept. 21.
In Division Series with the current 2-2-1 format, teams to win Game 1 on the road have advanced 34 of 46 times (73.9%).
“It’s huge,†outfielder Kerry Carpenter said. “To get a win before the best pitcher in the world pitches is pretty special, and I feel like Skubal is made for these moments. So he’s going to be at his best. And that’s a heck of a lineup over there. So they’re going to be at their best, too.
“But to have the opportunity to go 2-0 here, we’re really confident in our guy because we should be because he’s the only one with back-to-back Cy Youngs. So it’s pretty special.â€
That last homestand ended with the Tigers still in control of their postseason chances, but doubt creeping in. They saw the Guardians pass them for the AL Central title, watched the Red Sox walk them off to clinch a playoff spot, celebrated their own postseason berth in the cramped visitorâ€s clubhouse at Fenway Park and then celebrated a Wild Card Series win in the visitor’s clubhouse at Progressive Field, with several laundry cycles in between.
“You may have seen players in the same clothes,†manager A.J. Hinch said. “You might see, you know, a dry cleaning bill or two. The clubbies might have to pick you up with a few extra cycles of laundry, but this is the playoffs, and this is where you want to be. If you have to be on the road for 30 more days to win the World Series, you take it.â€
The Tigers are essentially where they thought they would be. They have taken the scenic route to get there.
“Winning on the road is definitely different than winning at home,†Holton said. “You’re against everybody. So I feel like when we’re able to have success on the road, it just motivates the guys, brings us closer together. When you’re able to come out on top, it’s a special feeling.â€
Said Torkelson: “For the most part, I think it’s just been a big lesson: We can win, no matter what. We can find ways to win when 45,000 fans are rooting against us. I think that builds confidence and some self-belief as a group, like we can play and win in any atmosphere.â€
Detroit relievers covered seven innings in relief of Melton, the lone run against the bullpen coming from an ill-fated three-batter appearance by former Mariners reliever Rafael Montero. Will Vest, a former Mariners Rule 5 Draft pick, retired the Mâ€s in order in the ninth and 10th to put the Tigers in position for the lead. Keider Montero, who was an option to start this game, instead finished it for his first MLB save.
The cavalcade of relievers bought time for the Tigers†offense to come through again after Carpenterâ€s two-run home run in the fifth inning – his fifth career homer off of Kirby — built a lead that lasted one inning.
“We had an idea that they were going to try to use different relievers and all that,†said Mariners star center fielder Julio RodrÃguez, who homered off Melton for Seattleâ€s first run and singled in the second off Rafael Montero. “Just make an adjustment.â€
Riley Greeneâ€s single following Carpenterâ€s fourth career homer at T-Mobile Park was the Tigers†final hit until 22 batters later, when McKinstry stepped to the plate in the 11th. Carlos Vargas, the Mariners†sixth reliever of the night, had struck out Wenceel Pérez and Dillon Dingler, but McKinstry — 0-for-17 since his last hit Sept. 25 in Cleveland — jumped a 99.6 mph sinker and sent a ground ball through the middle to send Torkelson charging around third.
“Looking for a sinker there,†McKinstry said. “He throws it a lot. I got one and was able to get the job done.â€
With that, the Tigers had flipped the series with a game that seemed like their least likely of the series to win.
“We didnâ€t steal it,†Hinch said. “We earned it.â€
Win another, and theyâ€ll earn a chance to finally go home, feel the crowd support and get a full cycle of laundry done.
The 2025 MLB division series matchups are starting to take shape with the Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees all moving on one day after the Los Angeles Dodgers became the first team to advance out of the wild-card round.
L.A.’s sweep sets up a division series showdown with the Philadelphia Phillies in one NLDS with the Cubs set to face the Milwaukee Brewers in the other.
Meanwhile, in the American League, the Tigers are headed west to take on the Seattle Mariners, and the Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays will square off in an AL East duel.
What have we learned about each team so far? What does each remaining team need to do to move on to the league championship series? Which players could be October difference-makers? And which favorites should be on upset watch in the round ahead?
ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield are here to break it all down as every division series matchup is set.
Key links:Mega-preview | Bracket | Schedule
Jump to a matchup:
NYY-TOR| CHC-MIL | DET-SEA | LAD-PHI
ALDS: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire
Upset forecast:(Blue Jays win 47.4% of simulations.) Forecasts like this spur fundamental questions best left to the ancient Greeks, like, “What is the essence of an upset?” The Blue Jays won the AL East, beat the Yankees in eight of their 13 meetings, and earned a first-round bye and the AL’s top seed. But the Yankees more than doubled the Jays’ run differential. The disconnect between runs and wins can be explained easily: Toronto went 43-30 in games decided by one or two runs; New York was 35-36.
The analytical precept is that non-close games are more telling when it comes to team quality. The Yankees went 33-15 in games decided by five or more runs; the Blue Jays were 25-23. Finally, in terms of run differentials, the Blue Jays were the AL’s second-best home team, behind Texas. But the Yankees were the league’s best road team.
All of this is a long way of saying that Toronto has the higher seed and the home-field advantage, but it is not the favorite in this series.
Blue Jays concern level:Red hot. The Jays’ regular season success sent fan expectations soaring. Could the three-decade title drought be quenched at last? — Doolittle
New York Yankees
What has impressed you most about the Yankees this season?
Their power. The Yankees led baseball with 274 home runs this season. The Dodgers were second with 244. New York had seven players hit at least 20. Anthony Volpe fell one short. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are all-time sluggers, but Trent Grisham (34 homers), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (31), Cody Bellinger (29) and Ben Rice (26) give the Yankees the deepest power bank in the majors. Hitting the ball over the fence has proven key for postseason success in recent years. And the Yankees have been doing it better than everyone else all year.
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Why will/won’t it continue against the Blue Jays?
It will continue against the Blue Jays because Blue Jays pitchers recorded the highest home run rate among postseason participants this year. Jose Berrios surrendered 25. Chris Bassitt gave up 22. Kevin Gausman yielded 21. Closer Jeff Hoffman gave up 15 — the second most in baseball among relievers. Bassitt is expected to be available for the ALDS after finishing the season on the injured list, but BerrÃos is unlikely to appear in the series. In October run-scoring environments, a mistake or two could make the difference.
Which one player must deliver for them to keep their run going?
The Yankees reached the World Series last year without Judge performing to his MVP-level expectations, causing a stir for another edition of his postseason struggles. But those Yankees had Juan Soto and a red-hot Stanton working their October magic. While the Yankees’ lineup is deeper than a year ago, Judge is the motor. And his career success against Toronto suggests he should have a huge series. Judge has a career .300/.420/.597 slash line with 41 home runs in 133 games against the Blue Jays. This year, he batted .325 with three home runs and a 1.118 OPS in 56 appearances across 13 games. He has crushed Gausman (1.283 OPS in 61 plate appearances), BerrÃos (1.195 OPS in 44 plate appearances) and Bassitt (.935 OPS in 28 plate appearances) over his career. This, on paper, is an ideal matchup for a two-time AL MVP looking to exorcise October postseason demons. — Castillo
Toronto Blue Jays
What carried the Blue Jays to an October bye?
A propensity to put the ball in play and strong defense. The Blue Jays’ 17.8% strikeout rate this season was the lowest in the majors and the sixth-lowest by a club since 2015. Two of the five teams with lower rates — the 2015 Kansas City Royals and 2017 Houston Astros — won the World Series.
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Defensively, Toronto ranked fourth in the majors in defensive runs saved and ninth in Outs Above Average. In short, it puts pressure on teams to make plays, and it makes the plays themselves. It’s a sound combination for October when every out is crucial.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Yankees?
It won’t continue against the Yankees because stringing together hits in October, when the pitching rises to another level, is difficult. The Blue Jays tied for 11th in the majors with 191 home runs during the regular season — a solid output with George Springer (32) leading the way followed by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (23), Addison Barger (21) and Daulton Varsho (20). But that pales in comparison to New York. The Yankees blasted 274 homers — 30 more than the second-ranked Dodgers. New York had seven players club at least 20 — and Anthony Volpe fell one short. Power plays in October, and the Yankees have the substantial edge.
Which one player must deliver to put Toronto in the ALCS?
The Blue Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500 million contract to serve as the franchise’s cornerstone for another 14 years. The assignment includes impressing when it matters most. Guerrero is just 3-for-22 with one extra-base hit, two walks and five strikeouts in six career playoff games divided into two-game slices over three postseasons. It’s a small sample size, but the Blue Jays went 0-6 in those games. Guerrero now has a chance to fuel a deep October run after another strong regular season. — Castillo
NLDS: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
Upset forecast:(Brewers win 56.2% of simulations) The Hiawatha Series! Yes, we tend to label these geographic rivalries with the interstates that connect them but in this case, let’s go with the Amtrak line that runs back and forth between Milwaukee and Chicago every day.
This is the first postseason edition and the Brewers, who posted baseball’s best record and run differential, are the statistical favorites. But the reasons to pick the Cubs are many: They offset many of Milwaukee’s advantages in speed and defense, and have more power. The Brewers’ pitching staff was better overall but struggled with health down the stretch. The Brewers have youth and the most athletic position group in the majors; the Cubs have more star power, especially if Kyle Tucker gets going.
Upset? The Cubs would be no Cinderella if they knock off Milwaukee, but the good people of Wisconsin would indeed be very upset.
Brewers concern level: Moderate. Losing to the hated Cubs would be a crusher, but this is an unflappable Brewers team, full of the hubris of youth. The clubhouse is upbeat and tightly knit, and this still-overlooked group will be aching to not only dispatch their rivals but also to show the nation why they were baseball’s best during the season. — Doolittle
Chicago Cubs
What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?
The talk going into the series was how the Padres’ bullpen — which was arguably the best in baseball in the regular season — was dominant enough to maybe carry the Padres all the way to the World Series.
The Cubs’ bullpen? It wasn’t really generating a lot of hype.
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This group has kind of been reconstructed on the fly throughout the season, but it looks really good right now. The secret weapon is veteran journeyman Brad Keller, who only had three saves in the regular season, but had a terrific year after adding 4 mph to his fastball and is now closing after Daniel Palencia got injured in September and missed a couple of weeks. (He’s back now.)
Why will/won’t it continue against the Brewers?
Why not? The numbers are legit. Keller is throwing 98 and had a 2.07 ERA. Palencia hit 100 mph in his Game 1 appearance. Drew Pomeranz, brought in from the Mariners in April, is a good lefty option who had a 2.17 ERA. Andrew Kittredge got a hold in Game 1, started Game 2 as the opener and got the save in Game 3 after Keller’s sudden control issues. Caleb Thielbar gives them a second good lefty. That’s a strong group that Craig Counsell can mix and match with and provide for a Cubs rotation without rookie Cade Horton, one of the best starters in the majors in the second half.
Which one player must deliver for them to keep their run going?
The second-half slides of Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong received a lot of attention, but Seiya Suzuki’s own slump was just as important to the Cubs’ offensive struggles in the second half. Suzuki hit .263 with an .867 OPS through the All-Star break but .213 with a .688 OPS after.
Given that Tucker is playing through some injury issues and Crow-Armstrong has struggled to make adjustments after his big first half, the Cubs need Suzuki to deliver and he did that with a big home run in Game 1 against the Padres. — Schoenfield
Milwaukee Brewers
What carried the Brewers to an October bye?
Pitching, defense, speed and timely hitting. Only the Rangers and Padres allowed fewer runs than the Brewers as Milwaukee had a good balance between starting pitching (third in the majors in ERA) and bullpen (sixth in ERA). The Brewers ranked first in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric and second in the majors with a .279 average with runners in scoring position — two keys to them finishing third in runs scored despite ranking just 22nd in home runs.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Cubs?
The Brewers weren’t a popular pick to reach the World Series precisely because many believe this formula won’t work as well in the postseason as it did in the regular season. Maybe that’s unfair, but the numbers are clear: You have to hit more home runs than your opponents to win in October. That can still happen for Milwaukee, but the Brewers will likely need some non-home run hitters to step up with some power.
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The other concern arose because of a couple key injuries to the pitching staff, with Trevor Megill, the Brewers’ closer most of the season, returning from a lengthy absence and starter Brandon Woodruff battling a lat strain and not pitching since Sept. 17.
Which one player must deliver to put Milwaukee in the NLCS?
Brice Turang could be the guy who proves a surprising source of power. He finished with a solid 18 home runs, but was even better in the second half when he hit .308/.380/.536 with 12 home runs in 63 games. As the production increased, manager Pat Murphy moved Turang into a middle-of-the-order spot in the lineup more often down the stretch. On the other hand, Turang also hit just one home run in his final 23 games. — Schoenfield
ALDS: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Upset forecast:(Mariners win 51.6% of simulations) The Mariners’ baseline is slightly better because of their much better finish to the season than Detroit’s woeful ending but over the full 162-game slate, they had only a five-run edge in differential. In other words, if Detroit were to beat Seattle, it would at best be a very mild upset. The Tigers could get two Tarik Skubal starts in the ALDS on normal rest, Game 2 in Seattle and a potential decisive Game 5 at T-Mobile Park. That, as much as anything, makes Detroit a threat to advance to the ALCS. Their late-season swoon was considerable but what we’ve seen over the past week is a Tigers club that has already shaken that off.
Mariners concern level: Historic. Seattle knows it’s facing a tough opponent but they match up well with the Tigers. But when you’ve never been to the World Series, there is a baseline level of concern that is always going to be kind of high. — Doolittle
Detroit Tigers
What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?
Give the Tigers credit for turning the page on their near-catastrophic September that saw them blow the biggest final-month lead in MLB history by beating the team that edged them for the division crown in the wild-card round.
Of course, it helped to have the ultimate momentum changer in Tarik Skubal in Game 1. Skubal’s 14-strikeout performance was a postseason masterpiece and sets up this possibility: Can he pull a Madison Bumgarner circa 2014 and put his team on his back for an entire month?
Why will/won’t it continue against the Mariners?
Here’s the good news for the Tigers: Skubal can start in Game 2 of the ALDS on four days of rest. Then, thanks to two off days, if the series goes five games he can start Game 5 on four days of rest. Skubal started back-to-back games on four days of rest only once all season since he generally worked on five or more days, but that one time turned out just fine: In the second of those starts, he allowed one hit with 13 strikeouts.
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So, yes, Skubal’s dominance can continue, but they’ll need others on the staff to step up against a Seattle offense that was the best in baseball in September. The performance against Cleveland was encouraging, but Cleveland’s lineup is not Seattle’s lineup.
Which one player must deliver for them to pull off the upset?
Besides Skubal? Let’s go with a pair here: Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize. The Tigers are in the unique position of having arguably the best pitcher on the planet and also not really having a fourth starter, so it’s crucial they get something from at least one of their other two starters in the games Skubal doesn’t pitch. Neither made it through five innings in the wild-card round and Detroit is going to need more length than that to get past Seattle. — Schoenfield
Seattle Mariners
What carried the Mariners to an October bye?
We all know the Mariners can pitch. The problem in recent years has been the offense. This year was different. The Mariners sprinted past the shorthanded Astros in September to win the AL West with Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez carrying the offensive surge.
The Big Dumper … and some magic?
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Seattle led the majors in runs scored, home runs and wRC+ in September. They were second in OPS and wOBA. Combined with that potent pitching staff, the Mariners ripped off 11 straight wins and 17 wins in 18 games to comfortably reach the postseason with a bye — and emerge as a trendy pick to reach the World Series.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Tigers?
It will continue against the Tigers because even Skubal struggled to handle the Mariners in their two meetings during the regular season. Skubal didn’t complete six innings in either start, tossing 5â…” innings in Seattle on April 2 and five innings at home on July 11. He combined to allow seven runs on 10 hits. October is another beast, of course, and Skubal is coming off a historic performance in Cleveland. Even if he is dominant, the Tigers’ pitching staff faces a steep challenge. If he’s not, the Tigers’ chances to advance are very slim.
Which one player must deliver to put Seattle in the ALCS?
Raleigh could end up winning AL MVP, but Rodriguez might be the team’s most important hitter in October. Rodriguez made the All-Star team again this summer, but he was a significantly better hitter post-All-Star break — continuing his trend as a late-season performer. The center fielder led the Mariners in batting average, wRC+, OPS and fWAR in the second half. As the man tasked to protect Raleigh in the lineup, a strong showing from Rodriguez could force pitchers to attack Raleigh — and that’s a tough recipe for success for opposing teams. — Castillo
NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire
Upset forecast:(Dodgers win more simulations) Why no number in that parenthetical information? We’d have to use too many decimals! The Dodgers did win more sims, but their edge was four — out of 10,000 runs of the forecasting machinery. In that sense, there can’t possibly be an upset in this matchup between, quite possibly, the two strongest teams left in the bracket.
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This feels like a matchup that the bullpens will decide, and even that is a toss-up. The Dodgers led the majors in blown saves during the second half, but their bullpen numbers are better than Philadelphia’s since the start of September. Maybe it’s as simple as this: When in doubt, pick the team that has Shohei Ohtani.
Phillies concern level: Nonexistent. Look, the Phillies know who they are playing. But with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Cristopher Sanchez and Jhoan Duran on their side, this is not a team that is going to fret about anything. They will just wait for the adrenaline to flow. — Doolittle
Los Angeles Dodgers
What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?
The Dodgers haven’t really run out their “A” team for most of the season as they babied their starters for much of the season, but now we can see how good this team can be with a healthy rotation. Blake Snell was dominant in the first game until finally tiring in the seventh. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the seasonlong ace for the Dodgers, was solid in Game 2, escaping a bases-loaded no-outs jam in the sixth. The Dodgers were confident enough in those two that they saved Ohtani for what would have been Game 3 — and now is Game 1 of the NLDS. Oh, Ohtani can hit a little, too. Remember, the Dodgers won it all last season with Ohtani having a good-but-not-great postseason at the plate. After his two-homer game in Game 1 this postseason, watch out.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Phillies?
The Dodgers certainly have to love where they are. Ohtani slowly worked his way up to a normal workload and pitched six innings in his final start, throwing 91 pitches. He allowed just one run over his final four appearances and surrendered just three home runs in 47 innings. Thanks to having three potential off days to play five games in this series, Ohtani could start Game 5 on six days of rest.
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After his initial one-inning appearances in June, Ohtani was given at least six days off between starts, and his three starts in September came with eight, 10 and six days of rest, and he will have 10 days before his Game 1 NLDS appearance. The Dodgers will worry about the NLCS if they get there.
Which one player must deliver for L.A. to move on?
This is clearly about players, plural — as in relief pitchers. The sketchy Dodgers bullpen didn’t ease the confidence of Dodgers fans — or Dave Roberts — with a poor showing in Game 1 against Cincinnati, when the Dodgers had a 10-2 lead only to see the bullpen start walking everybody and the Reds load the bases and have the tying run on deck. Who Roberts trusts in the highest-leverage situations — and can deliver — remains a question. But there is hope Roki Sasaki can be a part of the answer after his strong showing in Game 2 against the Reds. — Schoenfield
Philadelphia Phillies
What carried the Phillies to an October bye?
The starting rotation and a monster season from Kyle Schwarber. The rotation led the NL in ERA and led the majors — by 51 innings — in innings pitched. Cristopher Sanchez led the way with an absolute monster season of his own — in fact, it was Sanchez, and not Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal, who led the majors in Baseball-Reference WAR. Meanwhile, Schwarber led the NL with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs, including setting a major league record with 23 home runs as a left-handed batter against left-handed pitchers.
Will it continue against the Dodgers?
Of course, a large part of that rotation success was Zack Wheeler, but he’s out for the postseason. Ranger Suarez had a terrific season but wasn’t great his final three starts, allowing 12 runs and four home runs in 14â…“ innings. And the fourth starter after Jesus Luzardo is either Aaron Nola, who doesn’t exactly inspire confidence given his 6.01 ERA and mediocre postseason results in his career, or Walker Buehler, who was signed at the end of August after the Red Sox released him. In other words: There are at least some slight concerns here for a rotation that was so good.
As for Schwarber: He has proved before he’s a tough out in October, and coming off his best season, he’s primed for a big postseason.
Which one player must deliver to put Philadelphia in the NLCS?
Trea Turner feels like the key guy here. Schwarber and Bryce Harper have been clutch playoff performers throughout their careers, but the Phillies will need offense from more than just those two — and that’s been a problem the past two postseasons. Turner had his best season with the Phillies but missed most of September with a hamstring injury, returning only for two at-bats in the final game of the regular season. He sets the table for Schwarber and Harper. If he’s getting on base, that’s a very good thing. — Schoenfield
After the madness of the Wild Card Series — with three winner-take-all games on Thursday, all of them taut and stressful — a day off to rest and catch our breath on Friday was certainly appreciated. But now that everybody has had a chance to get their bearings: Itâ€s time to get back into it. And what better way than with a full day of four Division Series games.
Can the Brewers get their mojo back?
The last game the Brewers played that really meant anything was — well, considering their lead in the NL Central was never fewer than five games after Aug. 5, it has been a while. Itâ€s a matter of debate whether a teamâ€s record down the stretch means that much in the postseason, but it should be said that since their 14-game winning streak ended on Aug. 16, the Brewers were under .500.
Meanwhile, the Cubs are coming off a taut, gripping series win over the Padres and may have finally figured out their bullpen over the last fortnight or so. The one thing the Cubs are still working out is the offense outside of Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch, with Kyle Tucker continuing to work through his calf issue and Pete Crow-Armstrong still working his way back to his first-half form.
What does that mean? The best path for the Brewers to look like the Brewers again is to have Peralta pitch like he did in August (4-0, 0.32 ERA). The Brewers have enjoyed their best season in franchise history. But a Game 1 loss would make that all feel awfully precarious, especially coming on the heels of the teamâ€s other recent October disappointments.
Will the Blue Jays take advantage of a good pitching matchup?
The Yankees just survived a grueling three games against the Red Sox, and while they were saved somewhat by rookie Cam Schlittlerâ€s brilliant eight innings in Game 3, they still had to use David Bednar, the only reliever they particularly trust right now, in all three games. Now Gil is going to start for the Yankees in Game 1 of this series, which is hardly ideal. The 2024 AL Rookie of the Year still posted a 3.32 ERA in 11 starts after returning from a lat strain in August, but his command was rough and his underlying numbers were worrisome. (Gil held the Blue Jays to one run over six innings on Sept. 6, but with four walks and only one strikeout.)
Gil pitching in front of a questionable bullpen would seem exactly what the Blue Jays would like to see, but itâ€s up in the air whether they have the horses to benefit right now. Bo Bichette is still out of the lineup, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ended the season in an ugly slump, putting up just a .592 OPS with no homers after Sept. 5. The Yankees have a wobbly bullpen but also the highest-scoring offense in baseball. The Blue Jays are going to have to muscle up to win this series, and theyâ€ll have no better opportunity to do so than in Game 1.
We finally get to watch Ohtani do both in a playoff game
Fun trivia question! Who was the last player, before Ohtani, to both hit and pitch in a postseason game? No, no, the answer is not Babe Ruth; itâ€s amazing how quickly we forget. The last player to get a plate appearance, as a pitcher, in a postseason game was Astros reliever Kendall Graveman, who struck out in the ninth inning of Game 5 of the 2021 World Series. (That was the last year before the arrival of the universal DH. It should also be noted that Zack Greinke got a hit in that game, but as a pinch-hitter.)
Since the Angels never made the playoffs when Ohtani played for them, and Ohtani wasnâ€t pitching last October, he now gets — for the first time — to be the starting pitcher and the leadoff man in a playoff game. Not just any playoff game either: Game 1 of what promises to be an epic series between two teams who desperately, desperately want to win the World Series this year.
Itâ€s one thing to watch Ohtani do something no one has done in baseball in a century, and never at this level. Itâ€s quite another to see him do it when the stakes are this high. To steal an old LeBron James marketing line: We are all witnesses.
Can the Tigers somehow steal one non-Skubal game?
Because Tarik Skubal pitched Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, he wonâ€t be able to start Game 1 of the ALDS, which would be on three days†rest. But because of the travel days from Seattle to Detroit after Game 2 and then (theoretically) back again after Game 4, Skubal could start both Game 2 and Game 5 on full rest.
For a team like the Tigers, which feels like itâ€s being held together by manager A.J. Hinchâ€s “Skubal and Pitching Chaos†strategy for the second straight October, that could be enough. Thereâ€s no guarantee Detroit wins Skubalâ€s starts — the club won only one of his regular-season outings in September — but doing so is the Tigers’ clearest path to advancing as underdogs in this series.
Even if that happens, though, they need to sneak out one win in the other three games. Game 1 wouldnâ€t seem like the ideal time to do it, as the Tigers only had one day off after their grueling series in Cleveland and have to be extremely road weary. (They havenâ€t played a home game since Sept. 21.) They also used both of their other clear playoff-caliber starters, Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty, in that series. But if the Tigers can figure out a way to steal Game 1, theyâ€re instantly — and maybe definitively — the favorites in this series moving forward.