A patented Bouch Bomb that found the back of the net against the Seattle Kraken on Saturday night was followed by a sigh of relief that echoed throughout the Pacific Northwest.
It was Bouchardâ€s first goal of the season and he was feeling the heat. Expectations are massive for the Edmonton Oilers this season and the polarizing defenceman couldnâ€t have started slower after signing a massive extension this summer. Itâ€s still extremely early in Bouchardâ€s deal, but not too early to panic for some who are concerned the Oilers may have invested too much for arguably a one-dimensional player.
Letâ€s dive into that and debate some other potential overreactions from the first month of the campaign.
Bouchardâ€s contract will age poorly
After handing Evan Bouchard $10.5 million a season for the next four years, the Oilers surely didnâ€t think they were paying for only three points and a minus-10 rating over his first nine games. Even with the goal Saturday, Bouchard went minus-three against the Kraken and is still on pace for only 27 points on the season. Bouchard has his defensive flaws and his managing of the puck often leaves a lot to be desired, but you can usually count on him to produce elite-level offence for his position. The 26-year-old has averaged 75 points over the past two seasons and quarterbacks a usually potent Oilers power play, so the slow start is definitely concerning. Bouchardâ€s defensive game isnâ€t anywhere near good enough to justify his contract, so if heâ€s not at least a 65-70-point defenceman, Edmonton is probably not going to be pleased with its investment.
Overreaction? – Yes
Bouchard and the Oilers roster have too much talent not to break out at some point. Edmonton currently sits at 19th in goals-for per game, partly because of Bouchardâ€s early-season struggles, but also due to the fact that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have also had slow starts for their standards. Draisaitl is only averaging a point per game right now, and it took McDavid until game seven to score his first goal of the season. Those two are eventually going to really get going, which should help ignite Bouchard. Thursdayâ€s rally over the Montreal Canadiens was a good sign, as the Oilers exploded for three goals in the final 10 minutes to pull off a 6-5 comeback win.
Then we have to consider that Bouchard has been pretty unlucky not to have more than one goal. Heâ€s currently on pace for 273 shots this season, which works out to be 38 shots more than his previous career high. If he keeps shooting at that rate, the puck is going to start going in, or his teammates are going to start capitalizing on rebounds and deflections.
The fact that the cap is going up rapidly should also help Bouchardâ€s contract age well. A $10.5M AAV isnâ€t going to look outrageous in a couple of years when the cap goes up to a projected $113.5M. Plus, when you consider the recent extensions of defenders like Lane Hutson, Jackson LaCombe and Luke Hughes, Bouchardâ€s deal actually seems like fair market value when you look at his history and where the cap is going.
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Bouchard has also proven to be an incredible playoff performer over the past four postseason runs. Heâ€s recorded 81 points in 75 career playoff games, which puts him in some really elite company in the history books. Only Bobby Orr has a better points per game all-time in the postseason than Bouchard among blueliners. This is the area where the Oilers are most concerned, as they are going to be doing everything they can to prove they can finally get over the hump when it matters most, so McDavid sticks around long term.
When Bouchard isnâ€t scoring points, he looks very ordinary, but all the signs are there to suggest heâ€ll start filling the scoresheet soon.
Alex Ovechkin will score the fewest goals of his career over a full season
There are no more goal records for Alexander Ovechkin to chase, so maybe itâ€s understandable that the Great 8 hasnâ€t really exploded out of the gates this season. The goal-scoring king has just two goals in nine games up to this point, putting him on pace for a meagre 18 goals this season. Ovechkin is only shooting 10 percent right now, and if he can stay healthy, that will normalize and the puck will start going in more, but there is reason to believe this could end up being one of the worst offensive seasons of his career.
Overreaction? – No
Even though Ovechkin may be having some tough puck luck at the moment, expectations should be tempered about him turning things around in a big way. The biggest concern would be that heâ€s not shooting the puck nearly as much as he has in the past. Ovechkin has just 20 shots on goal, which puts him on a pace for 182 over an 82-game season. Only once in his career has Ovechkin failed to reach at least 200 shots, and that was in the shortened season of 2020-21, where he still posted 182 shots in just 45 games.
Ovechkinâ€s worst goal total over a full season came two years ago, when he netted 31, and it really does feel like he could fall below that in 2025-26. Besides the motivation of the record chase being behind him, Ovechkin is now 40 years old and no longer moves the way he once did. Plus, the Washington Capitals are putting him in a great spot to fill the net this season, and heâ€s still struggling to do it. The Caps are starting Ovechkin in the offensive zone a whopping 91 percent of the time, which is easily a career high for him.
I donâ€t think Ovechkin is going to finish with 18 goals, though he may be in tough to hit 30 this year. For the majority of NHLers, a 25-goal season would be considered a success, but Ovechkin has set a different standard for himself. Still, getting somewhere around 25-30 goals at age 40 is nothing to sneeze at, even for the gameâ€s greatest goal scorer.
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The Pittsburgh Penguins will make the playoffs
Pittsburgh has been one of the most surprising teams so far this season. Most figured the Penguins would be in the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes and sell off pieces as the season goes along and while that could still happen, a 6-2-1 start under new head coach Dan Muse could have the team re-evaluating things. The team also has a plus-8 goal differential and hasnâ€t lost in regulation in five straight games. Oh, and thereâ€s this guy you may have heard of named Sidney Crosby, who would love nothing more than to will the Pens into the playoffs for another run. The past two seasons the bottom half of the East has been a sea of mediocrity, so stranger things have happened.
Overreaction? – Yes
Is 39-year-old Evgeni Malkin capable of maintaining his 127-point pace all season? Unlikely. Will Justin Brazeau, who already has five goals and has suddenly turned into Brett Hull, cool off at some point? Almost certainly. Can Arturs Silovs hold onto a .914 save percentage for the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign? I wouldnâ€t bet on it. The point is, the Pens are getting some unsustainable play from a handful of players right now.
They are also still likely to sell of pieces like Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell at some point, which is going to make the team worse. Itâ€s also important to note theyâ€ve beaten the New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Los Angeles Kings, San Jose Sharks, Florida Panthers and Vancouver Canucks. Not exactly a lot of elite competition and only two of those squads were playoff teams from last season. Itâ€s been a great start for the Pens but if Crosby wants to partake in more playoff hockey, it may have to be in a different uniform.
What a start for Shane Pinto. The Ottawa Senators forward has eight goals in nine games and has been a big bright spot for the team this season. With Brady Tkachuk sidelined, Pinto has stepped up the offence and solidified the second-line centre role, while averaging more than three shots per game. This hot start couldnâ€t come at a better time, as the 24-year-old is due a new contract next season, and if he puts up a monster campaign, Pinto is going to be in line for a substantial raise. He certainly wonâ€t average close to a goal per game all season, though, is 40 a realistic possibility if his pace doesnâ€t completely fall off?
Overreaction? – Yes
While this start from Pinto has been impressive, 40 seems like a real stretch. First off, Pinto is currently shooting almost 27 percent, and thereâ€s no way he can maintain anything close to that number throughout the season. Expect it to fall significantly sooner or later, and when it does, Pinto is inevitably going to go through some cold stretches. Heâ€s also not on Ottawaâ€s first power play unit, so goals on the man advantage could be hard to come by consistently. Pinto was never a huge scorer in college, and his career high for goals is 21, so itâ€s hard to imagine him doubling that total all of a sudden, even with this torrid start. Thirty goals feels more attainable.
Beckett Sennecke may have been shocked to be taken third overall by the Anaheim Ducks in the 2024 draft, but he certainly looks right at home now. The 19-year-old doesnâ€t look out of place in the early part of his NHL career, scoring three times and totaling five points in eight games. Sennecke is holding down a spot on Anaheimâ€s second line and is averaging almost 18 minutes per game, and it looks like he belongs.
Overreaction? – No
Sennecke certainly appears to have the ability and confidence to be an NHL regular and heâ€s in a pretty good spot to make the transition. The Ducks were very cautious with Leo Carlsson during his rookie season a couple of years ago, opting for a load management approach. Anaheim chose to limit Carlssonâ€s games in the first half of the season to not burn him out over the course of a long NHL campaign, and they could use a similar strategy with Sennecke.
The Ducks may end up needing Sennecke on a nightly basis, though. Jackson LaCombe and Frank Vatrano, two players Anaheim relies on for scoring, have only three assists between them so far this season, and neither has found the back of the net. Senneckeâ€s offence could be a critical stopgap until those two get going, as the Ducks have playoff aspirations in 2025-26. It also doesnâ€t appear that Sennecke is overwhelmed by the physicality of the NHL game. He already has 11 hits this year, which is good enough for seventh on the team. The Ducks donâ€t have 12 forwards better than Sennecke right now and itâ€s hard to justify sending him down.
Dan Vladar has surpassed Samuel Ersson as the Flyers number one goalie
Have the Philadelphia Flyers finally found themselves a goalie? It feels like theyâ€ve been searching for some consistency between the pipes for decades and Dan Vladar is doing his best to fill the void. Vladar has started the season 3-2-0 with a .932 save percentage and a 1.81 goals against average. He also has 2.8 goals saved above expected. After alternating with Samuel Ersson for the first four starts of the season, Rick Tocchet turned to Vladar for three games in a row. It appears the net is now Vladarâ€s to lose going forward.
Overreaction? – No
The Flyers need wins any way they can get them and Tocchet isnâ€t going to be shy about leaning on Vladar if he gives them the best chance to do so. Even though Ersson has been with the organization for several years, his numbers have been poor and they continue to get worse. In 2023-24 Ersson finished the season with a save percentage of .890, then last season he dropped to .883 and this year itâ€s sitting at .861 in three appearances. He also ranked 103rd in goals saved above expected a year ago, dead last in the entire NHL.
Iâ€m not saying Vladar is going to be one of the leagueâ€s elite goaltenders or anything this season, but he doesnâ€t have to be to overtake Ersson. Itâ€s a low bar right now in the Flyers crease and thus far Vladar is proving heâ€s up to the task. It should be his net for the foreseeable future.
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