Sorting Team Canada’s player options for the 2026 Olympics into tiers

In late August of this past summer, Canadaâ€s menâ€s hockey program gathered 42 NHL players for an orientation camp preparing for the Milan/Cortina Olympics in 2026. Those games are sneaking up on us, and though lists havenâ€t leaked, the teams have recently had to file a preliminary roster of — not so coincidentally — 42 players and five goalies that they have on their radar to bring.Â

Using those 42 names they had at camp (and a half-dozen others who didnâ€t get included for various reasons), I took my first stab at the shape of Canadaâ€s upcoming menâ€s Olympic hockey team. Itâ€s not as simple as just sending back the Four Nations squad, as a lot can change over a full calendar year, and you want to get better.

Iâ€ve sorted those names below (with some additional ones peppered in) into six tiers as I see them just a couple weeks into October, with most teams having about five games under their belts.

The fun part: when you pile together the “locks†with my “very likelys†and “probables,†you get one goalie, seven D, and 12 forwards. You donâ€t need much more than that, though Iâ€m sure Iâ€ve missed a couple, and thereâ€ll be a few injuries along the way. Letâ€s take a look.Â

My internal debates were as follows:

Does Colton Parayko have enough left in the tank to be as valuable as he was to Canada at the Four Nations Face-Off? (I self answered “very likely.â€)Â

Is Mark Scheifele really beyond “probable†all the way into “very likelyâ€? I concluded yes, as this guy shouldâ€ve been there at the Four Nations. With a few other forwards struggling for traction, the door is wide open for them to right that wrong. Heâ€s a proud Canadian, an elite offensive creator and a furious competitor, so while maybe itâ€s a lot of my own opinion on that one, he still gets listed way up here.

Reinhart and Marner have to handle new environments this season, what with the Panthers sniper having to carry a team with massive injuries, and the former Leaf trying to fit into a new situation in Vegas. But both are plenty capable and were significant parts of the win just a year ago. Theyâ€ll be there.Â

Bennett checks every conceivable “intangibles†box, scored the massive tying goal against the USA in the Four Nations, won yet another Cup, and so yeah — heâ€s somewhere between probable and very likely. But heâ€s still only a 40-45 point offensive producer typically, and happens to be off to an atrocious start in his first six games, at least statistically. Heâ€s got just one point and is an NHL-worst minus-nine at the time of writing, so Iâ€m just a little less bullish on him than a few others.Â

Sanheim and Theodore made it the last time, and it’s tough to see why theyâ€d fall out of favour this time. Sanheim showed well at the Four Nations, and while Theodoreâ€s injury there was a bummer, it doesnâ€t hurt him at all. Heâ€ll be quarterbacking a great team there in Vegas and will grade out well again this year.Â

The only new addition to the list here is Nick Suzuki, who caught red-hot fire after the Four Nations last season, scoring nothing but big goals for the Habs, leading them to the playoffs. At 26 years old, after an 89-point season, heâ€s closer to “very likely†than the list below.Â

Oh boy. I mentioned the numbers of the above lists combined, well, they leave maybe two to three forward spots and one to two D spots. As for goalies, well, thatâ€s a free-for-all.Â

So, itâ€s kinda Royal Rumble from here.

Noteworthy is the Connor Bedard vs. Macklin Celebrini battle. Both had similar stat lines last year, both are super young, and both could take the types of crazy leaps this year that force Canadaâ€s hand. Bedard, in particular, looks far, far better so far this season (particularly in puck battle-related stats). Youâ€d hate to leave him off right as heâ€s found an elite game, and all without playing with other elite players. If he had top-quality linemates, would he unlock the best version of himself ever, at the exact right time?

Brad Marchand is on the list, as he was Canadaâ€s least-used forward at the Four Nations (11:35 per game), and one assumes another year of aging hasnâ€t made him faster. But some people are just winners, as evidenced by his 20-point playoff run en route to his second Stanley Cup. Heâ€s off to a good start so far, too, and just isnâ€t a guy you ever want to bet against. Heâ€s got leadership and heart and keeps things light. If itâ€s between him and some of these other guys, itâ€s probably him.Â

Does Mark Stone stay healthy and have enough in the tank? Same question for Zach Hyman, whoâ€s not far removed from tallying huge goal totals. I know Robert Thomas is a favourite of Doug Armstrong. Would a good run get him a spot? Would they bring Tom Wilson to provide a different element? Â

This is your “prove it†class.

I donâ€t feel the need to say much about the goalies, as past Binnington and the whole “heart of a champion†thing he seems to have, itâ€s really anyoneâ€s ballgame. Play well and you get to go, simple as that.

This group needs a lot to break right, namely: a red-hot start to the season, a couple of injuries, and perhaps a need that aligns perfectly with their particular skill set. Konecny may deserve better than this tier after making the team last year, but itâ€s just a matter of numbers and the surrounding talent. He was their least-used forward at Four Nations, and look at the “maybe†list above of guys vying for the final spots. Heâ€s maybe closer to that group than this one, but heâ€s in tough, and it just feels like the momentum belongs to others right now.Â

Iâ€ll reiterate the above: the below is not a list of “guys I donâ€t think are good.†This is a list of guys — great players! — where itâ€s just tough to see how they leapfrog what are about 10 potential names ahead of them, for in most cases, just a spot or two. Â

At the bottom, youâ€ll notice a goalie tacked on. That would be Logan Thompson, whom it seems the brass of Team Canada just doesnâ€t believe in as a fit for whatever reason, no matter how he plays. I canâ€t explain that, but I get the sense they donâ€t trust him.

The only outlier on the list may be Noah Dobson, whoâ€s still young enough to get better and climb in Canadaâ€s eyes. But as of right now, heâ€s not taking the offensive opportunities from the elite offensive D (like Cale Makar), and isnâ€t good enough at the D-side yet to handle that role, so the fit doesnâ€t work. If you wanted a guy like him, youâ€d take Evan Bouchard first anyway.

All told, here are the players when you smack together the top three tiers:

Cale Makar 
Thomas Harley 
Josh Morrissey 
Colton Parayko 
Devon Toews 
Travis Sanheim 
Shea TheodoreÂ

Sidney Crosby 
Nathan MacKinnon 
Connor McDavid 
Brayden Point 
Sam Reinhart 
Brandon Hagel 
Mitch Marner 
Mark Scheifele 
Sam Bennett 
Seth Jarvis 
Nick Suzuki 
Anthony CirelliÂ

Weâ€ve seen a very similar group have success recently, and itâ€s tough to see this same one as any less capable of doing the same. Now, time to sit back and see how the next couple of months of NHL action impact what, for now, looks like an awfully stacked roster.Â

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