Senators Mailbag: Is it time to trade for a top-six forward?

OTTAWA — By longstanding tradition, November has not been kind to the Ottawa Senators. And this one has been no different with overtime losses to the Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins already. Since 2021-22, the month after Halloween has handed the Senators a scary 14-32-5 record.

Thatâ€s why we decided to lighten the mood this with a mailbag to hear whatâ€s on the minds of Sens fans — from the fun to the serious. Expect more mailbags this season, we love hearing from Sens Nation!

Hey Tyler! Appreciate the question. The Senators (now 5-3-3) are doing what they need to do to survive without their captain. They are playing slightly above .500 hockey. You could quibble about their penalty kill and their goaltending, but Ottawaâ€s doing just fine for now, considering.

As of Thursday, heâ€s still wearing a cast on the thumb that required surgery. The end of November or early December is his target to return.

Iâ€ve heard and it has been reported that the Senators are aggressively seeking to add to their team. The problem is, they donâ€t have their first-round pick this season and have limited prospects outside of Carter Yakemchuk and Logan Hensler. I would have presumed Pittsburgh would be a team Ottawa eyed as a trading partner, but with their surprisingly strong start to the season that may dash any trade chances, for now. If Ottawa is in the playoff race, the two areas Steve Staios will likely add by the deadline are another winger and a right-side defenceman. The Senators could make a hockey trade involving only players because of their limited draft capital and prospects.

At this stage, Iâ€d go with Elliotte Friedmanâ€s reporting about a potential three-year deal for Shane Pinto. The question will be: does Pinto say no to an eight-year contract where heâ€d get upwards of $50-60 million, or does he bet on himself in a rising cap environment? I will say itâ€s hard to turn down $50-60 million but the reported three-year deal suggests Pinto is considering it. Pintoâ€s been one of Ottawaâ€s most important players this season, and they canâ€t afford to lose him, so they will have to pay him.

If the Senators are in a playoff hunt by the deadline, Iâ€d be shocked if they didnâ€t acquire a top-six winger.

Iâ€ll lump these two questions together. Right now, the Senators have the worst penalty kill in the league at just 65.1 per cent. Some of that is on goaltending but the rest is on a diamond formation that has struggled. Ottawa has the worst save percentage while shorthanded despite giving up the fifth fewest high-danger chances. The eye test shows that when the Senators†penalty kill is aggressive and less attached to the diamond formation, it is better than when it is passive. Ottawa needs to have more of a hybrid penalty kill and anything less than last year’s rate of 77.7 per cent should be unacceptable. Itâ€s a major problem.

Right now, Linus Ullmark is on pace to play 70 games but I donâ€t expect that for a goaltender who is in his 30s and has never played more than 49 games in a season. I wonder if his workload is affecting his poor performance so far, but heâ€s made it very clear he doesnâ€t care what anyone thinks.

I do know he cares about how well he plays.

We are entering territory with Ullmarkâ€s poor play where I wonder if heâ€s the solution in net. Including playoffs, Ullmark has a slightly below .900 save percentage since joining the Senators beginning last season. Itâ€s still too soon to hit the panic button but time is running out.

Travis Green talks about analytics quite frequently and I believe he weighs it significantly. At the same time, no analytics person would have told Green to play Travis Hamonic with Jake Sanderson last season or to pull Jordan Spence out of the lineup this season. Analytics are imperfect, and I do believe Green uses them to make decisions, but there are clearly limits.

I still believe Yakemchuk is the future on the right side of the Senators’ defence. No slight to Nick Jensen, but heâ€s a stopgap until Yakemchuk and Hensler are ready in the years to come. Ultimately, I believe the Senators want Yakemchuk to be the top-pairing right-shot defence for a minimum of the next half-decade. But will Yakemchuk be that player? The jury is still out.

I picked Ottawa to win the division, and I will stick with that. Honestly, if the Senators were getting more saves, had a better penalty kill and didnâ€t lose Tkachuk in Game 3 of the season, my prediction probably would look a whole lot better right now.

First, I believe that Spenceâ€s lack of size is the reason he isnâ€t playing, plus Jensen and Thomas Chabot analytically have been alright (though the eye test suggests otherwise). According to the NHL, Spence is only an inch shorter than Jensen. Second, I’m not sure Tkachuk being out makes the case more so than before the season that they need another top six forward as they sit ninth in goals for with Tkachuk playing in only three of the first 14 games. Nevertheless, the Senators know and want to acquire another top-six winger. Third, Maxence Guenette is a curious case, and we still donâ€t know why the restricted free agent remains unsigned.

I know many fans donâ€t like how the black helmet goes with the road whites. As a hockey fashion expert, I believe the black helmets stand out on TV and complement the white jerseys. I will always say I like it when teams try new jerseys or gear. Try it, if it doesnâ€t work, you can always change it.Â

The Senators have the worst penalty kill and save percentage in the league and yet are above .500. Itâ€s almost statistically impossible for the Senators to have an .849 team save percentage and 65 per cent penalty kill throughout the entirety of an 82-game season. A regression to the mean will lead to more wins.

Right now, I believe Zach Dietz is the emergency backup goalie. He doesnâ€t travel but next season, with the new collective bargaining agreement, each team will be required to employ a full-time, travelling replacement to play in the event of multiple injuries or illnesses.

I donâ€t think anything will happen in either department anytime soon.

The Senators traded a third-round pick for Spence and heâ€s not a regular in their lineup. If you told me Spence would play just five of the first 14 games before the season, Iâ€d have been shocked. Spence has five points in five games. Itâ€s a fascinating story.

I think all those players could make sense in a hockey trade to improve the roster. The one player I am especially curious about is Fabian Zetterlund, who is signed for $4.275 million AAV for the next three seasons and has one goal in 14 games. Right now, he hasnâ€t fit in Ottawa playing on the fourth line.

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