Roman Anthony rookie season analysis

If Roman Anthonyâ€s rookie season was a preview of whatâ€s to come, Boston is in for something special.

Enormous expectations followed the 21-year-old to the Majors. He was ranked as MLB Pipelineâ€s No. 1 overall prospect entering the season, and his performance at Triple-A to start the year only fueled anticipation for his arrival — capped by a 497-foot grand slam only two days before his callup. But even with a slow start and a season-ending left oblique strain dealing blows to his production, he totally lived up to the hype.

From June 25 until Sept. 2, when he suffered the injury, he tied for sixth among MLB position players with 2.8 WAR (per FanGraphs), slashing .329/.422/.512 with 24 extra-base hits (seven homers) and 31 walks over 249 plate appearances in that time. Along the way, he signed an eight-year, $130 million extension that could keep him in Boston through 2034 if his ninth-year club option is exercised.

It wasnâ€t just the stat sheet where he stood out, though. It was also the skill set he showed in that small sample that should have Red Sox fans very excited for whatâ€s to come. We’ll dig into that below, highlighting three ways Anthony already looks like a star while also exploring a couple areas he needs to improve to take a step forward in 2026.

Laying off bad pitches is much easier said than done, especially for a young hitter seeing big league pitching for the first time. But Anthony demonstrated an advanced approach from the get-go, recording a 20% chase rate as a rookie, a mark that tied for 18th lowest among the nearly 300 hitters who saw at least 500 out-of-zone pitches in 2025.

Dig a little deeper and his plate discipline looks even more impressive. Anthony showed a particularly keen eye on pitches that looked like strikes but werenâ€t, swinging at less than 30% of the out-of-zone pitches he saw on the edges of the plate. Thatâ€s no easy feat — weâ€re talking about an area the width of one baseball just outside the strike-zone borders.

Lowest swing rate on out-of-zone edge pitches, 2025
Minimum 250 out-of-zone edge pitches seen

1. Liam Hicks: 27.3%
2. Jonathan India: 27.5%
3. Trent Grisham: 27.9%
4. Juan Soto: 28.1%
5. Mike Trout: 29.3%
6. Rhys Hoskins: 29.5%
7. Roman Anthony: 29.7%

Not many hitters combine that kind of bat speed with that level of consistency in squaring up the ball. Among those who took at least 200 swings and had an average bat speed of 75 mph or higher in 2025, only two hitters had a higher squared-up rate than Anthony: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (29.3%) and Yordan Alvarez (27.5%).

With that type of swing, itâ€s no surprise that Anthony absolutely blistered the baseball, registering an average exit velocity of 94.1 mph with a hard-hit rate of 60.1%. No one — not Kyle Schwarber or Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge — generated hard contact (95+ mph exit velocity) at a higher clip.

Highest hard-hit rate, 2025
Min. 100 batted balls

1. Roman Anthony: 60.3%
2. Kyle Schwarber: 59.6%
3. Shohei Ohtani: 58.7%
4. Aaron Judge: 58.2%
5. Romy Gonzalez: 57.3%

Anthonyâ€s bat may have done much of the talking in his rookie season, but he was no slouch on defense. His 6 Outs Above Average and +4 Fielding Run Value are evidence of that, but those figures are counting stats. For someone who didnâ€t play a full season, they only tell part of the story.

To get a clearer understanding of his range, consider his success rate added, which shows the difference between a fielderâ€s actual success rate and the percentage of plays an average fielder would be expected to make with the same opportunities. Only one outfielder (minimum 75 attempts) had a higher success rate added than Anthony.

Highest success rate added
Minimum 75 attempts

1. Denzel Clarke: 7%
2-T. Roman Anthony: 6%
2-T. Ceddanne Rafaela: 6%
2-T. Bryce Teodosio: 6%

The next step for Anthony? Finding the right balance between being disciplined and being too passive at the plate.

Thereâ€s nothing wrong with being choosy, but he let a lot of hittable pitches go, posting one of baseballâ€s lowest swing rates (59.4%) on pitches in the heart of the zone. He offered at just 51.6% of so-called “meatballs†— true middle-middle pitches — the lowest rate among all hitters who saw at least 75 of them.

Anthony could also take his game to another level by elevating the ball more. His 49.4% airball rate was six percentage points below the MLB average in 2025, limiting his opportunities to tap into his power.

That he still managed a stellar 15.5% barrel rate despite hitting so many grounders speaks volumes about his natural ability to crush the ball. In fact, he was the only player in MLB with an airball rate below 50% and a barrel rate above 13% (min. 100 batted balls).

It was an impressive first act for a player who looks every bit like a future franchise cornerstone for the Red Sox. With a few tweaks, the rest of Roman’s reign in Boston could be even more spectacular.

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