This story was excerpted from Alex Stumpfâ€s Pirates Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
In the 143-year history of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Steve Blass just might have watched more games in person than anyone else. Heâ€s been with the organization for over 50 years, ranging from a player to color commentator, and heâ€s still seen at PNC Park often even after stepping away from the broadcast booth in 2019.
Heâ€s seen just about every Pirate since the ‘60s play in person, but he prefers to watch Paul Skenes at home. When Skenes asked why, Blass explained that on his start days, he wants to sit in his chair, watch that center-field camera angle on the broadcast and see how those pitches dance.
“Heâ€s the perfect human baseball machine,†Blass said in late September. “… Usually power guys have a fastball and a slowball. This guy has a fastball, slowball and a package of four other pitches. Heâ€s got a package of pitching material, not just throwing material. Heâ€s a joy to watch.â€
2025 was a year of firsts and personal accomplishments for Skenes. He set the single-season franchise record for strikeouts by a right-handed pitcher (216). He took a major leap forward in his innings (187 2/3). He finished with the lowest ERA of any Pirate starting pitcher in the Live Ball Era (1.97). Itâ€s a résumé that has made him a finalist for a Cy Young Award, which will be announced on Wednesday night on MLB Network.
The conversation this week is going to be about whether he had the best season of a National League pitcher. But letâ€s take it a step further. Is Skenes†2025 campaign the greatest a Pirates pitcher has ever had?
To find out, letâ€s break down some key categories.
Earned Run Average (Live Ball Era, since 1920)
Paul Skenes, 2025, 1.97
Bob Veale, 1968, 2.05
Steve Blass, 1968, 2.12
You have to go to the year of the pitcher to find any competition for Skenes†1.97 ERA. Different eras have different barometers to what is “great,†so letâ€s take a look at ERA+, which takes into consideration factors like the leagueâ€s offensive output and home ballpark. Live Ball, Dead Ball or pre-Modern Era, every era can be compared this way:
Denny Driscoll, 1882, 218
Paul Skenes, 2025, 217
John Candelaria, 1977, 169
Go back to the first year the Pirates played in the American Association to find the one pitcher who beat Skenes by a single point. For those who pitched on this side of Chester A. Arthurâ€s presidency, Candelaria is his closest competition, but still well behind.
If there is a knock on Skenes†Cy Young case, itâ€s his 10-10 record. In another era, that might have cost him the award, but is it his fault that his offense only provided him 11 runs of support in those 10 losses?
Instead, letâ€s look at Win Probability Added. What were his teamâ€s chances of winning before and after every inning he pitched?
1. Goose Gossage, 1977, 5.9
2. Kent Tekulve, 1979, 5.7
T3. Ray Kremer, 1926, 5.5
T3. Mark Melancon, 2015, 5.5
T5. Whitey Glazner, 1921, 5.1
T5. Paul Skenes, 2025, 5.1
This stat is particularly kind to closers (protecting a one-run lead in the ninth helps your teamâ€s win probability a lot more than protecting one in the second inning). Everyone on this list pitched at least 11 games out of the bullpen, with the exception of Skenes, so thereâ€s a case to be made that Skenes helped his teamâ€s chances of winning more than any starter in franchise history.
Skenes struck out more batters than any right-hander in franchise history, but how efficiently did he rack up those Kâ€s compared to other starters?
Oliver Pérez, 2004, 29.7%
Paul Skenes, 2025, 29.5%
Francisco Liriano, 2015, 26.5%
Strikeouts per nine innings
Oliver Pérez, 2004, 11 K/9
Paul Skenes, 2025, 10.4 K/9
Francisco Liriano, 2015, 9.9 K/9
Paul Skenes, 2025, 5.1
Denny Driscoll, 1882, 4.9
Deacon Phillippe, 1902, 4.7
If you want to talk about efficiency by inning or batter, Skenes is sandwiched between a pair of lefties in Pérez and Liriano. But if you want to measure it by walks, heâ€s tops, beating out some Dead Ball arms.
So if you value ERA, strikeouts and helping your teamâ€s chances of winning, Skenes may have had the best season for a Pirates pitcher ever. It could make him just the third Pirate to win a Cy Young, joining Vern Law (1960) and Doug Drabek (1990).
Is it the best season for a pitcher in franchise history? Maybe. Is it the best year heâ€s going to have as a Pirate? Weâ€ll have to wait and see.
“Give him some years,†Law said in August. “Heâ€s probably going to get better.â€
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