Rachel KryshakOct 1, 2025, 06:22 AM ET
- Rachel Kryshak is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
The NHL’s preseason is nearly done, and it is time to prognosticate who will take a leap forward this season in terms of role and production.
Last season, Dylan Guenther and Matthew Knies made this list and saw major increases in role and production. A few others who did not pop last season for various reasons, find themselves on the list ahead of 2025-26.
As is tradition, a “breakout” does not always mean offensive production. It can mean an elevated role at even strength, more special teams time, and exposure to tougher matchups. Many of the players on this list are expected to see major role increases and a few of them should break out in the traditional sense.
C, Chicago Blackhawks
The most obvious player to include on this list.
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After two seasons below seemingly impossible expectations, it feels like this is finally Bedard’s year. A reminder that Nathan Mackinnon did not become the rhinoceros on skates we know today until his fifth NHL season, so give the much smaller Bedard a chance.
Not that the preseason is always an indicator of anything, but Bedard’s shot and elite vision were on display consistently in September. If he stays healthy, he should score more than a point per game. If he wants to make the Olympic team, he’ll need to be on an 85- to 90-point pace when the roster is named, which is attainable for someone with his skill set.
Everyone has seen the brilliance of Bedard when he’s at the top of his game. Through two years, it hasn’t been consistent. He’ll likely play more than 20 minutes every game, and should generate between three to four shots per game. His shooting percentage should start to climb, which is something seen often with players who possess elite shots like Bedard. Should Bedard shoot at 13% on 270 shots, he would score 35 goals, a major uptick from his 22- and 23-goal campaigns.
He needs more opportunities to make magic happen, both of his own creation and by way of the situations he is deployed in. It’s reasonable to suggest he ends with 32 goals and 55 assists this season, which puts him at 87 points.
C, Los Angeles Kings
The 6-5, 225-pound center is going to be a key piece for the Kings this season, as he prepares to step into the top-line pivot role when Anze Kopitar retires at the end of the season.
Kopitar is still a tremendous player, but the Kings will need to put Byfield in tough minutes to further develop his game on both sides of the puck. Byfield has all the makings of a player who can score 80 points and be reliable defensively. He’s going to get more opportunities on the power play, and his offensive game at even strength started to take off last season.
After back-to-back seasons of point totals in the mid-50s, expect Byfield to use his speed, strength and skill to physically dominate his shifts. There’s a real pathway to a 30-goal, 45-assist season for him as he takes a more significant role in the Kings’ top six.
C, Seattle Kraken
The first-line center for the Kraken is one of the better two-way players in the NHL at the young age of 22. Beniers is reliable in all situations, a rarity for players under 25. Beniers has not found the next step offensively in the NHL, and it is something Seattle desperately needs.
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From a true breakout perspective, this could be the year Beniers finds himself firmly in the Selke Trophy conversation for the NHL’s best defensive forward. The winners are usually accompanied by offensive production (not that they should be), and Beniers will see time on both special team units to make an impact.
Incoming Kraken coach Lane Lambert wants the penalty kill to be aggressive, and will encourage his players to generate scoring chances when the opportunity arises. That, combined with top-line minutes and top power-play reps should allow Beniers the opportunity to increase his offensive output.
Beniers’ rookie campaign saw him produce 57 points in a second-line role. He’s taking tougher matchups on the top line, and if he can notch more than 60 points while effectively shutting down the opponent’s best, he’ll be in the Selke conversation. That’s a major step forward for a player at this point in his development.
LW, Buffalo Sabres
A promotion to the top line with Tage Thompson and Josh Norris is all that is needed for Benson to land on the list. Whether he stays there — or plays second-line center to allow for Ryan McLeod to thrive in the third-line role — Benson is primed for a major uptick in every statistical category.
After a 28-point campaign last season where he averaged under 15 minutes of ice time per game, he’s likely to play close to 19 minutes per contest this season. He’ll also get opportunities on the power play, and be in a position to play with better players than in prior campaigns.
When factoring in everything, there is a distinct possibility that the highly skilled youngster will double his offensive production from last season and score between 55 and 60 points. He will play more difficult minutes because of his matchups against top defenders, but Benson’s ability to create offense is high-end, and he should thrive with more talented linemates, and more time spent in the offensive zone.
The Sabres are counting on him this season, so scoring around 22 goals and 35 assists is within reach for the 2023 first-round pick.
C, Winnipeg Jets
With Nikolaj Ehlers signing with Carolina, Perfetti is finally in line to get a major upgrade in offensive opportunity. Combine that with his standout performance for Winnipeg in the playoffs, there is no defensible reason for keeping him off the top power play and from giving him consistent minutes in the top six.
With increased opportunity at even strength and special teams, there is every reason to believe Perfetti could be a 70-point player in 2025-2026. Increasing his ice time from 15 to 17 minutes on a per-game basis will lead to an increase in shooting opportunities. Should Perfetti match his shooting percentage from the last two seasons, he should notch between 25 and 30 goals. Increased power-play time will naturally increase his offensive production.
It is finally Perfetti time in Winnipeg, and he is well prepared to take this well-earned opportunity and run with it.
C, Carolina Hurricanes
The diminutive center saw his opportunity and thus, his production increase after the trade from Dallas to Carolina.
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The Canes deployed Stankoven as their second-line center, and were rewarded for it. As is the case with Perfetti, Stankoven is likely to see 17 minutes of ice time per game this season, adding two minutes to last season’s average. Whether his is flanked by Andrei Svechnikov or Nikolaj Ehlers on his left, he’s going to have a highly skilled player capable of scoring many points.
Stankoven’s playmaking ability could be what elevates Svechnikov to that surge in goal production for which many have been waiting. Should he play with Ehlers, both are dual-threat offensive players, and Stankoven has the skill to finish the chances that Ehlers creates.
Regardless of who he plays with, an upgrade in skill set and increased opportunity should lead to increased production for the young Canes center.
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