NBA Summer Forecast 2025-26: Turnarounds, turbulent teams and the biggest questions

Aug 25, 2025, 08:00 AM ET

The 2025-26 NBA season is less than two months away, and excitement is already building for what should be another season full of shake-ups.

As the league prepares for the ripple effect of stars like Kevin Durant, Myles Turner and Kristaps Porzingis on new squads, other teams like the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers are preparing for a season without their stars. Could these new faces in new places and injuries make way for an unexpected NBA champion?

ESPN’s Summer Forecast panel made up of our NBA insiders, answers the NBA’s biggest questions heading into the 2025-26 season, including which team is expected to make a turnaround, which stars are likely to make an exit from their current teams and if we’ll have a new team crowned champion for the eighth straight season. (Here’s the math: A first-place vote received five points, a second-place vote three points and a third-place vote one.)

Here are the results:

Note: Our 2025-26 NBA Summer Forecast continues Tuesday with predictions for all the major awards.

Team Turnaround: Which teams will make a major leap?

ESPN’s NBA insiders voted for the San Antonio Spurs to be one of the teams with the biggest turnarounds in 2025-26. Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images

T1. San Antonio Spurs/Atlanta Hawks:55 points

2. Philadelphia 76ers:49 points

3. Orlando Magic:48 points

4. Minnesota Timberwolves:6 points

5. Houston Rockets:5 points

The Spurs produced a streak of 22 consecutive postseason appearances from 1997-98 to 2018-19 and could finally be poised to end their six-year drought after drafting in the top 10 for four straight years. The health and development of San Antonio’s young talent — especially back-to-back NBA Rookie of the Year winners Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle — will be crucial in leading a revamped roster that now features another Rookie of the Year candidate in No. 2 pick Dylan Harper, along with veteran additions such as Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk.

But don’t sleep on the Atlanta Hawks, which finished just behind the Spurs in the poll, or the Philadelphia 76ers. Just five years ago, the 76ers and Hawks battled it out in the Eastern Conference semifinals with Trae Young and Joel Embiid dropping 39 and 37 points, respectively, in Game 7. Philadelphia’s prospects hinge largely on the health of veteran stars Embiid and Paul George, as well as continued growth from Tyrese Maxey. The Hawks, meanwhile, pieced together a potentially transformative offseason by adding scorers such as Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kennard to complement Young, in addition to a reliable defender in Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

The young and hungry Orlando Magic lurk here as well, as they look to advance past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2009-10. — Michael C. Wright

Team Turmoil: Which team will take a tumble this season?

Will Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks have the most team turmoil in 2025-26? (Photo by Ron Hoskins/NBAE via Getty Images)

1. Milwaukee Bucks: 41 points

2. Los Angeles Lakers:32 points

T3. Boston Celtics/Phoenix Suns: 28 points

4. Philadelphia 76ers: 25 points

5. Indiana Pacers:19 points

The Bucks top this list because of the mounting uncertainty surrounding the franchise at the perceived end of its contention window. Giannis Antetokounmpo is still one of the best players in the world. Still, the talent gap between him and the rest of the roster is striking, even after Milwaukee made an unprecedented move to sign Myles Turner in free agency. To sign Turner, the Bucks waived guard Damian Lillard and stretched the more than $110 million remaining on his contract over the next five years, giving them future flexibility to find a short-term fix — a sign seen by rival teams as an act of desperation by the Bucks to cling to the last of Antetokounmpo’s prime.

The Bucks’ plan for success this season will be to lean heavily on Antetokounmpo. The two-time MVP has shouldered massive tasks before, but getting this roster into contention without a clear second star will require, perhaps, his most herculean effort. Milwaukee began last season 2-8, then found a way to rally and make the playoffs before exiting in the first round. Will the Bucks have the patience and confidence to bounce back if they get off to a slow start again this season? — Jamal Collier

The next superstar to request a trade will be …?

Zion Williamson has played in only 214 games since being drafted by the Pelicans in 2019. (Photo by Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images)

1. Zion Williamson:10 votes

2. Giannis Antetokounmpo:7 votes

3. LeBron James:6 votes

4. Ja Morant:1 vote

5. Trae Young:1 vote

(Note: This category was scored on a one-point-per-vote basis.)

There isn’t a situation simmering this summer that seems as destined for midseason divorce as Jimmy Butler’s strained marriage with the Miami Heat was last season.

Williamson’s stay in New Orleans might have been extended by the Pelicans’ front office change, with Joe Dumars replacing David Griffin as the primary decision-maker. If Williamson can have a strong start to the season — and avoid the injury bug that has plagued his career — it’s feasible that he could seek a fresh start instead of remaining with a New Orleans franchise that seems stuck in neutral. It has been radio silent since James, via his agent Rich Paul, attempted to rattle the Lakers’ cages immediately after exercising his $52.6 million player option for this season. The all-time leading scorer and his camp understand just how complicated a trade involving him — at his age, making that much money, with the contractual right to veto any deal — would be.

Speculation has swirled around Antetokounmpo asking out of Milwaukee for several years. If he didn’t take that drastic step in the summer, it’s unlikely to happen midseason. — Tim MacMahon

Which superstar injury will have the biggest impact in the East?

Jayson Tatum suffered a rupture of his right Achilles tendon that will sideline him for the 2025-26 season. AP Foto/Frank Franklin II

1. Jayson Tatum: 20 votes

2. Tyrese Haliburton: 5 votes

3. Joel Embiid:1 vote

(Note: This category was scored on a one-point-per-vote basis.)

Tatum’s Achilles injury was a catalyst for perhaps an even more aggressive selloff and spending cut for the Celtics, already being forced to break up their core and slash their payroll to avoid the second apron.

Boston certainly achieved that aim, trading both center Kristaps Porzingis and guard Jrue Holiday. It also lost backup center Luke Kornet and is likely parting ways with beloved big man Al Horford, who remains a free agent for now.

Yes, the Celtics still have Jaylen Brown and Derrick White on the wings, and newcomer Anfernee Simons is certainly a capable scorer. Still, no team in the association lost more top-end skill and talent than the Celtics this offseason. The team’s depth is no longer championship caliber, particularly in the post, and it’s clear Boston is looking to next season to reopen its title window next season, once Tatum can return to the lineup. — Chris Herring

Will we get a different champion for the eighth straight season?

(Note: This category was scored on a one-point-per-vote basis.)

Earlier this month, I touched on this very topic of parity, and whether or not it is good for the NBA to no longer have dynasties after being a league that has been built on them for most of its history.

It’s understandable why voting would be slanted toward that trend continuing. The Thunder became the NBA’s seventh consecutive new champion this spring — and the Celtics became the sixth consecutive defending champion to not make it past the conference semifinals.

However, the voting may be too reflexive, looking into the past, rather than examining the Thunder’s case. Oklahoma City was the second-youngest team to win a title in the past 50 years, behind the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers. This season, it has all of its players back and makes a strong case to believe it will be even stronger in 2025-26. Those around the league have said they’d pick the Thunder to repeat as champs, and don’t see a credible argument against them.

That does nothing to guarantee that Oklahoma City will actually repeat. Last season, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics were expected to square off in the Eastern Conference finals but neither made it there. The Thunder were on the ropes in the second round against the Denver Nuggets and in the Finals against the Indiana Pacers. The inevitable growing competitiveness of the league, plus some questions about OKC’s staying power, led our panel to conclude parity will reign over the NBA this season. — Tim Bontemps

Which team is most likely to make a big move before the trade deadline?

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Steph Curry confident Warriors can compete for title

Stephen Curry tells ABC’s Larry Beil that he isn’t worried about the age of the Warriors’ roster.

1. Golden State Warriors: 7 votes

2. Los Angeles Lakers:5 votes

T3. Cleveland Cavaliers/New Orleans Pelicans:3 votes

4. Philadelphia 76ers: 2 votes

5. Memphis Grizzlies: 1 vote

(Note: This category was scored on a one-point-per-vote basis.)

The Warriors lead this list because they’ve essentially spent the offseason signaling a desire for deadline movement. Their two-year, $45 million contract offer to restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga was designed to get him on a salary number they can flip come January. The Lakers, who are transitioning into the Luka Doncic era, have maintained a few first-round sweeteners that can be used to get a deal done as LeBron James’ expiring contract looms. For the Cavaliers’ situation, disappointment and desperation can breed movement. If they fear their high-value core four won’t get it done in the playoffs again, they may decide to flip one and change up the mix. — Anthony Slater