NBA Summer Forecast 2025-26: Predictions for every major NBA award

Aug 26, 2025, 08:00 AM ET

Which players will take home some hardware for the NBA’s major awards this season?

Last season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander became the first player since LeBron James in 2015 to win Finals MVP and league MVP in the same season. This season, it’ll be another tight race to the top of the awards list, not only for MVP but for other major awards as well.

Highly-touted No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg is primed to take home Rookie of the Year. But in a talented rookie class, he’s sure to face some challengers, including San Antonio Spurs’ Dylan Harper, who can take home the award for the franchise for the third season in a row.

Plus, keep your eye on the race for Defensive Player of the Year, as last season’s front-runner, Victor Wembanyama, returns to the court after missing the 65-game threshold for eligibility.

We asked our Summer Forecast panel — a group of NBA experts, including reporters, editors and analysts — to rank its top three choices for the NBA’s six major awards, with a first-place vote receiving five points, a second-place vote receiving three and a third-place vote receiving one.

Here are the results:

Note: Our 2025-26 NBA Summer Forecast continues Wednesday with win-loss predictions for the Eastern and Western conferences. On Monday, we revealed our picks for the teams that will have the biggest turnaround this season and the teams that will drop off and answered some of the season’s biggest questions.

Who will win NBA MVP?

1. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets: 83 points

2. Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers:62 points

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: 46 points

T4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks/Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves: 9 points

5. Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets: 8 points

Either voter fatigue wears off quickly, or voters were very impressed by Nikola Jokic’s head-to-head battle with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the second round of the 2025 playoffs. The three-time MVP came in as a heavy favorite to win for a fourth time in our preseason survey, almost doubling the votes for SGA to repeat. Voters also seemed to be impressed by Luka Doncic’s offseason transformation as the svelte version of the Los Angeles Lakers point guard came in second in early voting. Team success always plays a factor in voting, which is probably why SGA has slipped to third here. In other words, he already elevated the Thunder to a championship level and was recognized as the MVP for doing it. But what if there’s even another level for him — and the youngest championship team in decades — to reach? — Ramona Shelburne

Cooper Flagg was selected No. 1 in the 2025 NBA draft by the Dallas Mavericks. Brad Penner/Imagn Images

Who will win NBA Rookie of the Year?

1. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks: 121 points

2. Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs: 38 points

3. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers: 25 points

4. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets: 18 points

5. Ace Bailey, Utah Jazz: 16 points

Unsurprisingly, Flagg ran away with the voting: He’s the best prospect in this class, brings NBA-ready versatility and is stepping into what will likely be an important role on a team with playoff hopes and veteran talent. This award tends to be about the confluence of talent and circumstance, and Flagg enters the league with an optimal combination of both.

Harper and Edgecombe finished second and third, and both players can be highly impactful as rookies. The question in both instances will be how big a role they can carve out in their respective crowded backcourts, and whether that leads to a big enough platform to mount a case for Rookie of the Year honors. On paper, Flagg has a major leg up — for now. — Jeremy Woo

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Do the Spurs’ playoff hopes rest on Wemby’s shoulders?

Kendrick Perkins says the Spurs will go as far as Victor Wembanyama can take them into the playoffs.

Who will win Defensive Player of the Year?

1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: 95 points

2. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers: 31 points

3. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder: 20 points

4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 16 points

5. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves: 14 points

Deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder essentially robbed Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama of winning his first NBA Defensive Player of the Year award last season because the 21-year-old failed to meet the 65-game threshold for eligibility when he was shut down on Feb. 20. Despite playing in just 46 games last season, Wembanyama led the league in blocks (176) by a wide margin over second-place finisher Brook Lopez (148 blocks). Plus, he averaged 1.1 steals for a Spurs defense that owned a defensive rating of 115.4 with him on the floor (121.4 without).

If Wembanyama plays in league-required 65 games this season, it would be a surprise if he didn’t snatch the award by a landslide ahead of reigning DPOY Evan Mobley and other contenders such as Chet Holmgren, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert.

A one-time DPOY winner, Antetokounmpo finished eighth in award voting last season ahead of four-time winner Rudy Gobert, who finished 13th. Keep an eye on how Milwaukee’s offseason addition of Myles Turner might free up Antetokounmpo to unleash havoc on opposing offenses.– Michael C. Wright

ESPN’s NBA experts predict Alex Caruso will win Sixth Man of the Year. Joshua Gateley/Getty Images

Who will win Sixth Man of the Year?

1. Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder: 66 points

2. Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves: 52 points

3. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks: 39 points

4. Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics: 18 points

5. Ty Jerome, Memphis Grizzlies: 17 points

Will voters value nuance over numbers? That would have to be the case for Alex Caruso to win this award this upcoming season.

This honor traditionally goes to a player who provides instant offense off the bench. It has been three decades since the Sixth Man of the Year averaged single digits in points, which has happened only three times in the history of the award. Caruso’s impact in his first season in Oklahoma City, particularly during the playoffs, is indisputable. But he averaged only 7.1 points per game during the regular season, when he received a single third-place vote to finish eighth in Sixth Man of the Year balloting. A significant scoring boost is unlikely for Caruso during his ninth NBA season as a role player on a loaded Thunder roster.

The Thunder will continue to carefully manage Caruso’s minutes (an average of 19.3 in 54 games last season), prioritizing the 31-year-old’s freshness for another probable deep playoff run and providing developmental opportunities for young guards such as Ajay Mitchell and Nikola Topic. But there is precedent for dominant defense and contributing to a contender earning this award, going back to the first Sixth Man of the Year, Philadelphia’s Bobby Jones in 1982-83.

The 65-game minimum doesn’t apply to Sixth Man of the Year, but a couple of players who finished high in ESPN’s balloting might not be eligible for this award. Last season’s winner, Payton Pritchard, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are strong candidates to be starters this season. — Tim MacMahon

Will Amen Thompson win Most Improved Player for the 2025-26 season? Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images

Who will win Most Improved Player?

1. Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets: 59 points

2. Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers: 40 points

3. Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons: 18 points

4. Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers: 14 points

5. Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks: 14 points

Amen Thompson was a runaway winner in this category, as he is slated to play a significant role for a Rockets team with high expectations in 2025-26. Thompson will be entering his third season in the NBA, having already taken a jump in Year 2, and he hasn’t even been a full-time starter yet. He has already established himself as an elite defensive player, making the All-Defensive team and is currently one of the best on-ball defenders in the league. His offensive game showed signs of improvement in the playoffs, with better handles and a jumper as he upped his scoring averages as the series went on, giving the league a glimpse of what he can do on the other side of the ball. That should be elevated, considering Thompson will be playing next to Kevin Durant this season, a much better offensive centerpiece for Houston than it had last season. — Jamal Collier

With a wide open Eastern Conference, the Orlando Magic could quickly become a playoff contender in 2025-26. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Who will win Coach of the Year?

1. Jamahl Mosley, Orlando Magic: 48 points

2. Quin Snyder, Atlanta Hawks: 24 points

3. Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets: 22 points

4. Mike Brown, New York Knicks: 21 points

5. Mitch Johnson, San Antonio Spurs: 16 points

Jamahl Mosley was tasked with developing the Magic when he was hired in 2021, and he got a young core to two straight playoff appearances. But now, Mosley has a roster built to make a run at winning the injury-weakened East, and our panel is betting Mosley will captain a significant leap forward and take home Coach of the Year honors. Orlando is poised to win more than 50 games for the first time since 2010-11 with the additions of Desmond Bane’s much-needed scoring and outside shooting, and Tyus Jones’ steady point guard play to complement Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Health will be vital, especially Jalen Suggs’ ability to return from left knee surgery. Southeast division rival Atlanta, another team that made significant offseason moves, is expected to contend in the East this season, with coach Quin Snyder at its helm. — Ohm Youngmisuk