Kevin PeltonOct 30, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
Friday isn’t just Halloween. It also marks the opening day of the 2025 Emirates NBA Cup as the league’s in-season tournament kicks off its third iteration.
Thus far, the Cup’s single-elimination bracket has yielded tricks for favorites and treats to underdogs. Although the eventual NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder reached last year’s final in Las Vegas, neither of the first two winners (the Los Angeles Lakers in 2023 and Milwaukee Bucks in 2024) won more than a single game the next postseason, indicative of how different the NBA Cup sprint is from the playoff marathon.
All of that is to say: Predicting the NBA Cup is a spooky proposition. Still, we look at which teams are best positioned with the help of projections using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), which accounts for team health and player ability.
For all six NBA Cup groups, we’ve used BPI to identify a favorite to advance, plus other contenders with an eye on how the wild-card spots in each conference might shake out. Let’s look at who has the best chance to advance to Vegas in December.
Jump to a group:
East Group A (ATL, CLE, IND, TOR, WAS)
East Group B (BKN, BOS, DET, ORL, PHI)
East Group C (CHA, CHI, NYK, MIA, MIL)
West Group A (MIN, OKC, PHX, SAC, UTAH)
West Group B (DAL, NO, MEM, LAC, LAL)
West Group C (DEN, GSW, HOU, POR, SAS)
Note: All odds in this story are as of Wednesday morning.
East Group A
Group favorite: Cleveland Cavaliers (55%)
Contender: Atlanta Hawks (24%)
Lurking: Toronto Raptors (11%), Indiana Pacers (7%), Washington Wizards (3%)
This top-heavy group is the most likely to fill the East’s wild-card spot. That’s partially because teams get the benefit of facing the Wizards, who rank last in BPI, as well as the Pacers, the 2023 runner-up, who have been hard by injuries.
Indiana played Wednesday without a whooping eight players due to injuries, including the top four guards from the team’s full-strength roster (Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard). Some of them should be back for the Pacers’ last three NBA Cup games, but they’ll be short-handed for Friday’s opener against Atlanta.
The Cavaliers are dealing with their own injuries to guards Darius Garland and Max Strus, but are off to a3-2 start nonetheless. With the Hawks starting slowly, Cleveland is a clear favorite in this group. Atlanta hosting Toronto on Nov. 7 could be the key matchup to determining wild-card contention.
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East Group B
Group favorite: Philadelphia 76ers (34%)
Contenders: Orlando Magic (25%), Detroit Pistons (20%)
Lurking: Boston Celtics (19%), Brooklyn Nets (2%)
The league tries to balance NBA Cup groups by putting teams together based on their record from the previous season. That can throw things off when teams’ fortunes change dramatically, as is the case with Boston after Jayson Tatum’s right Achilles rupture.
Boston’s downturn leaves Group B wide open. Comeback wins over Charlotte and Washington take some air out of the Sixers’ 4-0 start, but they have the benefit of hosting Orlando in a potentially crucial Cup game. The Magic upgraded their roster by adding Desmond Bane but are still having familiar difficulty creating half-court offense. Their 1.04 points per possession outside transition rank 29th in the NBA, per GeniusIQ.
There could be an opening here for Detroit, which hosts Orlando and Philadelphia. The Pistons started last year’s NBA Cup 3-0 before being blown out by the Bucks in their group finale, taking them out of wild-card contention.
East Group C
Group favorite: New York Knicks (38%)
Contenders: Milwaukee Bucks (22%, Miami Heat (22%)
Lurking: Chicago Bulls (11%), Charlotte Hornets (7%)
This year’s NBA Cup will test the perfect record of Milwaukee assistant coach Darvin Ham, who won the inaugural trophy as head coach of the Lakers before joining the Bucks in time for last year’s triumph. The Bucks have reached Las Vegas both years, but that was with Damian Lillard — now back with the Trail Blazers — who averaged 27.3 points in tournament play last season.
With Milwaukee’s roster weakened, despite a head-to-head loss Tuesday, the Knicks are the comfortable favorites in the deepest East group. New York also gets the benefit of hosting Milwaukee on the last night of group play. However, there’s extra importance to each game for the Knicks because this is the least likely East group to produce a wild-card team, according to BPI.
Unlike Groups A and B, Group C doesn’t appear to have a pushover with the Hornets blowing out the bottom teams in those groups (the Wizards and Brooklyn Nets) during the season’s first week. Meanwhile, the other 2025 lottery team in this group (Chicago) has started this season 4-0 and the surging Heat have the East’s best point differential.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks beat the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the Emirates NBA Cup in 2024. Kyle Terada-Imagn Images
West Group A
Group favorite: Oklahoma City Thunder (66%)
Contender: Minnesota Timberwolves (17%)
Lurking: Sacramento Kings (8%), Utah Jazz (5%), Phoenix Suns (4%)
It would be a surprise if the defending NBA champions finished anywhere but at the top of Group A. Not only do the Thunder have far and away the league’s best BPI rating, but this group looks atypically weak with Anthony Edwards likely to miss at least Minnesota’s opening game with a hamstring strain suffered during the opening weekend of the season.
The schedule does work in the Timberwolves’ favor with their matchup against Oklahoma City not scheduled until Thanksgiving Eve. Minnesota’s first two NBA Cup games are at home, and Edwards could be back by the time they hit the road on Nov. 21, making getting to the finale against the Thunder 3-0 a realistic goal.
The other three teams in this group have a combined one win this season against teams besides each other: Utah’s shocking opening night blowout of the LA Clippers.
West Group B
Group favorite: LA Clippers (30%)
Contender: Los Angeles Lakers (25%), Memphis Grizzlies (24%)
Lurking: Dallas Mavericks (15%), New Orleans Pelicans (7%)
The road to a spot in the quarterfinals from Group B goes through L.A., although the Lakers’ injuries could have something to say about that. They’ll likely be without Luka Doncic and LeBron James for their group opener Friday in Memphis, though James could be back by the time they play Nov. 14 and will have time to adjust before a showdown against the Clippers on Nov. 25. (BPI is projecting James’ return between those two games.)
The Clippers came into the season with the best projection of any team in this group, and a troubling opening night blowout in Salt Lake City looks like an outlier. Because their matchup with the Lakers is at the Crypto.com Arena, the Clippers will only have to play one NBA Cup game outside of L.A.
If the Grizzlies can beat the Lakers on Friday, they’ll likely be in contention to win the group up until their finale against the Clippers in L.A. The Mavericks and Pelicans haven’t yet shown enough to suggest they’re serious contenders.
West Group C
Group favorite: Denver Nuggets (27%)
Contender: Houston Rockets (26%), Golden State Warriors (21%), San Antonio Spurs (19%)
Lurking: Portland Trail Blazers (7%)
We saved the best group for last. The loaded West Group C includes two of the three West teams with over/under totals of at least 50 wins entering this season at ESPN BET (Denver and Houston, with Oklahoma City are the others), plus a Warriors team my model was high on and the undefeated Spurs.
This is the only group with no team given at least a 30% chance of winning, and nobody’s all that close. Last-place Portland has looked competitive early in the season, beating Golden State at home, which might make it hard for the runner-up in this group to pile up a strong enough point differential to win the wild card.
If both teams are still in it, the Rockets visiting the Warriors on Thanksgiving Eve — Kevin Durant’s first trip to Chase Center with Houston — could be the marquee game of group play. Group C might not be decided until San Antonio visits the Nuggets two nights later in the final game.
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