Across all sports, I am generally not a big fan of preseason futures. To me, sports betting is one giant math equation and my primary source of income. The return on investment needed to outweigh churning a bankroll for the six-plus months of a season is a difficult proposition to justify. The risk vs. reward ratio matched up against simply investing the same money in other financial markets without a complete loss factor generally makes it unwise.
The theoretical hold of many futures betting markets is 1.5-2 times higher than single-game markets. That has always made no sense to me — if the sportsbook gets to keep my wager pending for multiple months instead of multiple hours — I believe the margins for the house should decrease and not increase.
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With all that said, though, I absolutely love betting NBA win totals.
Win-total betting mitigates a lot of the concerns of most futures markets — and there are large and quantifiable edges to obtain.
Letâ€s address why these markets are worth betting into, and then letâ€s talk about the three most obvious teams to target.
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Right now at BetMGM, you’ll see the same odds on NBA win totals as you do on normal NBA games: -110 on both sides of the ledger. That means the theoretical market hold — a nerdy gambling term to describe a book’s expected rake rate — is the exact same as game-to-game betting. When betting player awards and title winners, the large payouts look nice but the back-end math is less kind to the bettor.
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The next factor is “outs,†or different places to enter the market. Win-total markets remain up pretty much all season. A bettor can re-position, double down, hedge out or open a middle with relative ease. Juxtapose this with trying to bet some awards, and hedging becomes messy with multiple other options and unclear award criteria.
Lastly, these bets are generally the fastest to process of any futures market. Once a team automatically hits either the over by exceeding its win total with multiple games left, or mathematically hits the under, the bet can cash toward the end of the regular season. Player awards are announced during the playoffs and title winners have to wait until mid-June, so getting that bankroll back in early April factors into the equation.
So where should we put our money for this upcoming 2025-2026 NBA season?
Does Brandon Ingram make the Raptors a better team? (Andrew Francis Wallace/Toronto Star via Getty Images)
(Andrew Francis Wallace via Getty Images)
1. Toronto Raptors (over/under 37.5 wins)
Last season, the Raptors were ATS darlings. They ranked second in the NBA only behind the title-winning Oklahoma City Thunder against the spread, covering over 59% of their games (48-33-1). Considering they were so often priced as underdogs and only had 30 wins, they showed they were able to hang with teams of all caliber relative to market expectations. This was in large part due to an impressive young coach in Darko Rajaković and a deep roster of young, talented players.
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This offseason they made the transition from being a development team to a team intending to win, and the win-totals market does not fully reflect that yet. Toronto added Brandon Ingram and re-signed him to an extension. The Raptors also re-signed Jakob Poeltl, a stable starting center who is impressive on defense, setting screens and is an elite passer. Toronto also drafted one of the most pro-ready prospects in Collin Murray-Boyles from South Carolina.
The starting five likely looks like: Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Ingram, Scottie Barnes and Poeltl, while bringing in sharp-shooter Gradey Dick off the bench. This is a really improved team in a weak Eastern Conference.
I think the Raptors’ ceiling can be as a top-six seed, missing the play-in all together and being an outright playoff team. I am playing their win total over, their odds to make the playoffs and even some further long shots. I love the Raptors’ prospects this season.
Bet: Over 37.5 wins
2. Portland Trail Blazers (O/U 35.5)
In an era when offensive output drives regular-season winning, the Blazers doubled down on defense this offseason. They traded one of their most potent scorers for the aging and defensive-minded Jrue Holiday. They bought out Deandre Ayton, who does provide an offensive boost, only to give his minutes to Donovan Clingan — a very defensive-oriented center, and they’ll play rookie center Yang Hansen and let him learn from his mistakes. Lastly, they put together a really nice midseason run in late January into early February when the team went 10-1.
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But if we look back further, since Jan. 1 they went 25-25. Their big run was more anomalous than anything else. However, the ownership group was re-energized, it re-signed coach Chauncey Billups in what I think was the wrong decision, and decided to run it back with a very similar cast. This team will not be a play-in contender and will not keep pace in the Western Conference.
Bet: Under 35.5 wins
3. Phoenix Suns (O/U 31.5)
The Suns are one of the three teams that lost the most national TV games for this season. That makes sense with the trade of Kevin Durant and the buyout of Bradley Beal, but the pricing in the betting market reflects those changes — and perhaps a little too much.
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Phoenix finally has two centers to fill some of the defensive gaps after trading for Mark Williams at the deadline and drafting Khaman Maluach. Jordan Ott takes over the head-coaching duties, and early reports are very positive about some of his offensive innovation. I think Ott will be able to get the most out of Jalen Green, who never quite fit in with the Houston Rockets.
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Devin Booker has thrived in point guard duties in the past and now is flanked by Green and Dillon Brooks, two players who are surprisingly capable as catch-and-shoot players. Brooks was vastly improved as a shooter last season and shot 39.7% on a solid 6.3 attempts per game from 3-point range, which is actually borderline elite. Even a slight regression still has Brooks as a very capable and reliable shooter now.
Last year this team had star power, but it was redundant because each key piece aimed to fill the same role; now it is more balanced and will be a more well-rounded roster. I don’t think the Suns will win close to 50 games, but I very much like them to go over their win total.
Bet: Over 31.5 wins
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