We’ve collected projections for the most anticipated free agents of the last three offseasons: first it was Aaron Judge, then Shohei Ohtani, then Juan Soto (with an update in October).
While there isn’t a massive free agent expected to smash records this winter like Ohtani and Soto did, there are two players who are intriguing for different reasons and also happen to have the same first name: Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker.
From one point of view, Tucker has had a solid walk year, posting 4.7 WAR with his offensive numbers down just a tick from last year’s career year but underlying metrics close to his best seasons. On the other hand, Tucker had a really rough run in August, hitting .148/.233/.148 (16 wRC+) over 15 games (61 plate appearances) from Aug. 1 to Aug. 18. This led to him sitting out games Aug. 19 and 20. The Chicago Cubs right fielder has hit well since returning, but now he’s on the injured list with a calf strain. That said, he was tied for fifth in baseball in WAR at the end of June, and he remains in the top 20.
Schwarber’s season is less complicated. The Philadelphia Phillies slugger has posted career bests in most offensive categories, including his 50 homers, 123 RBIs and 4.5 WAR. The only negatives for his outlook on free agency are that Schwarber will be 33 years old in March and has played only 13 games in the field over the last two seasons. Designated hitters well into their 30s haven’t fared well in free agency, but none of those had hit 50 homers in their walk year, so Schwarber is in uncharted territory.
How much might each of the Kyles get this winter? We polled 20 scouts, executives and agents to find out.
Kyle Tucker
Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images
How much could Tucker get?
Here are the 20 responses from our panel, grouped in tiers by total dollars.
Under $350 million (6): 11 years/$308 million, 9 years/$315 million (2x), 8 years/$320 million, 9 years/$340 million, 9 years/$342 million
$350-$399 million (4): 8 years/$352 million, 10 years/$375 million, 12 years/$375 million, 11 years/$380 million
$400-499 million (8): 10 years/$400 million, 11 years/$400 million, 11 years/$418 million, 10 years/$420 million (2x), 10 years/$425 million, 12 years/$425 million, 10 years/$450 million
At least $500 million (2): 10 years/$500 million, 12 years/$550 million
The average of all 20 projections is 10.1 years, $391.5 million, for a $38.8 million average annual value (AAV).
The median projection of those deals is $390 million.
Who are the closest comps?
Tucker’s consistent standout performance (five straight 4-5 fWAR seasons and five straight hitting performances 30% better than league average) makes it hard to find a recent free agent comparison. He’s 10th in baseball in WAR over the last five seasons.
Passan’s early MLB free agency preview
How much will Kyle Tucker get? Who could sign Kyle Schwarber? Here’s what we’re hearing.
Jeff Passan »
Over the last four free agent classes, the $150M+ position players don’t have a great fit for a comp. Soto’s $765 million deal and Ohtani’s $700 million deal aren’t useful. Shortstops Willy Adames, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are positionally quite different, though Seager isn’t a terrible secondary comp. Freddie Freeman was three years older than Tucker as a free agent and Aaron Judge was two years older, while also coming off of an 11.1 WAR season with 62 homers, so neither seems that relevant. Kris Bryant was already trending down when he hit free agency, while Brandon Nimmo was trending up but had years of durability concerns.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500 million April extension with the Toronto Blue Jays is the comp that kept coming up with those we surveyed. Vlad’s extension kicks in next year for his age-27 season, while Tucker will be 29. It’s only two years, but it’s a very important two years in projecting the value in a long-term deal. Tucker has more baserunning and positional value, but he’s still a corner outfielder. Guerrero’s extension was signed outside of a competitive bidding situation, with the perception being that the Jays paid a little more than the market would bear to lock up their franchise player after a last-place American League East finish last season and with fellow core player Bo Bichette still unsigned.
Who are Tucker’s potential suitors?
There was little confidence from those surveyed (none of whom work for the Cubs) about the Cubs winning a bidding war for Tucker. The Los Angeles Dodgers, longtime fans of Tucker, were mentioned by a number of industry insiders. We didn’t ask about a projected team, so the Dodgers coming up often seems to be indicative of a feeling in the industry that they’re the team to beat.
Putting all of those pieces together, you can see why a contingent of the industry thinks Tucker will land somewhere around Guerrero’s extension, some think he’ll end up closer to $300 million, but most have him around $400 million, give or take, which is also where Jeff Passan’s sources led him.
Kyle Schwarber
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images
How much could Schwarber get?
Here are the 20 responses from our panel, grouped in tiers by total dollars.
Under $100 million (2): 4 years/$72 million, 3 years/$90 million
$100-$125 million (11): 3 years/$100 million, 4 years/$100 million, 4 years/$110 million (2x), 4 years/$112 million (3x), 5 years/$118 million, 4 years/$120 million (2x), 3 years/$125 million
$126-180 million (5): 4 years/$140 million, 6 years/$150 million, 4 years/$160 million, 5 years/$160 million, 4 years/$180 million
At least $200 million (2): 6 years.$200 million, 7 years/$245 million
The average of all 20 projections is 4.3 years, $131.8 million, for a $30.7 million average annual value (AAV).
The median projection of those deals is $119 million.
Who are the closest comps?
A handful of comps come up for Schwarber:
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
J.D. Martinez:Five years, $110 million going into his age-30 season in 2018 (45 HRs, 4.3 WAR walk year)
Paul Goldschmidt: Five years, $130 million going into his age-32 season in 2020 (33 HRs, 4.6 WAR in walk year)
Freeman: Six years, $162 million going into his age-32 season in 2022 (31 HRs, 4.7 WAR in walk year)
The comp math would say Schwarber should get one year less than the shortest deal above due to his age (thus, four years) and land in the $25-30 million average annual value (AAV) area, which is right where those surveyed ended up.
Who are Schwarber’s potential suitors?
Conversely to the Tucker/Cubs situation, a lot of those surveyed think there’s a strong chance the Phillies will act quickly after the season ends to bring Schwarber back. Either way, he seems to be a target for a contending team looking to beef up the middle of its lineup in the short term, and hopefully not have an albatross on its ledger at the end of the deal.
All of those teams would be conscious of luxury tax numbers, and a rival agent brought up an interesting wrinkle he’s expecting to see: Schwarber will get that fifth year, for a little added money, to get the AAV down.
A number of teams should be interested at that low-nine-figure area, as the predictions suggest, but there could eventually be a landing spot closer to $150 million with enough competitive bidding. That said, some teams simply can’t stomach that kind of money for an older DH.
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