Ketel Marte trade likelihood before 2026 season

This story was excerpted from Steve Gilbert’s D-backs Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The GM Meetings, which wrapped up Thursday, signal the start of the Hot Stove season as teams get a feel for what the trade market will look like and conversations about possible deals begin.

The storyline for the Diamondbacks at the meetings revolved around whether they might end up trading All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte, and my inbox was filled with fan questions about the possibility.

Let’s take a look at some of the most frequently asked questions on the topic:

Why would they trade one of their best players if they’re trying to compete for a postseason berth in 2026?
The Diamondbacks need to add pitching this offseason. For two straight seasons, they have wasted outstanding production from the offense with pitching struggles.

Some of that can be attributed to injuries to key pitchers. If starter Corbin Burnes and co-closers A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez had been healthy, the results for the pitching staff probably look a whole lot better.

Now Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are both free agents, leaving the Diamondbacks with a need for at least two starters to go with Eduardo Rodriguez, Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt. Burnes could return around midseason along with the two closers, but that’s not something the team can count on.

Arizona’s ownership stretched the bounds of the payroll budget last season by signing Burnes to a six-year, $210 million contract. That pushed the Opening Day payroll to a club-record amount of around $195 million.

This year, all indications are that the payroll will not be as high. It is worth noting that ownership — as it did last year — has not been shy in the past about making exceptions when warranted.

So if the D-backs’ commitments for 2026 already put them in the roughly $145 million range, GM Mike Hazen will have some room to add. But the price of good starting pitching on the free-agent market figures to be high, and adding two quality starters and a couple of back-end bullpen pieces simply through free agency seems unlikely.

That means the Diamondbacks will need to explore the trade market.

Couldn’t they trade from their prospect group?
They could trade from what is considered in the industry to be a very good group of top-end prospects. And, in fact, Hazen has said he is open to doing just that.

“I might,†Hazen said. “I donâ€t want to do that, but I think at some point if Iâ€m going to get somebody of value, Iâ€m going to have to give up [value]. It just is what it is. I donâ€t know what the market is going to look like trade-wise.”

That’s what Hazen said before departing for the GM Meetings. So yes, the Diamondbacks would be open to dealing shortstop Jordan Lawlar or outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt (their No. 1 prospect per MLB Pipeline). But prospects are not as much of a hot commodity as they have been in recent years.

So it’s an open question as to whether prospects would be enough to accomplish what Hazen hopes to do.

What about trading other position players instead of Marte?
Outside of outfielder Corbin Carroll, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo and catcher Gabriel Moreno, no one would bring the kind of return that Marte would.

The Diamondbacks are probably going to move either outfielder Jake McCarthy or Alek Thomas, but neither figures to return top pitching.

Marte, though, is still in his prime and is on an affordable contract. The extension he signed with Arizona in April runs through 2030, with a player option for ’31. All told, it is $91 million guaranteed.

For the same reasons the Diamondbacks would be loath to trade Marte — he’s a superstar on a reasonable deal — teams would likely be willing to give up a lot to get him.

So is it likely they trade Marte?
I would say possible, but not likely. Why? Because to do so, they’re going to have to make sure they get a blockbuster package in return, and those types of trades are not easy to pull off.

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