David SchoenfieldOct 14, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
What an incredible first two weeks of the 2025 MLB playoffs we’ve had. There was the instant classic 15-inning Game 5 of the American League Division Series between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, sending Seattle to its first American League Championship Series since 2001. We saw the Philadelphia Phillies be eliminated by the Los Angeles Dodgers on a bases-loaded error in the 11th inning. We watched the Toronto Blue Jays stomp past the New York Yankees with a barrage of scoring.
Now, we’re in the early stages of the league championship series and down to the final four teams: one team that is trying to make history with back-to-back titles, two teams trying to win their first title and one team trying to bring back its glory days of the early 1990s.
The Mariners surprised everyone by going into Toronto and winning the first two games. The Dodgers held on to a slim lead to take Game 1 in Milwaukee. Let’s take stock of October so far with an edition of Real or Not, looking at storylines on the teams still alive and those that have been eliminated.
Teams that are still in it
The Dodgers are the team to beat … again
Verdict: Real
Look. They’re the defending champs. They have a rotation of All-Stars. They have Shohei Ohtani. They seem to have found a closer in Roki Sasaki. They are the favorite to win it all. Just listen to a few statements Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy made Sunday:
“The Dodgers are a powerhouse, what can you say?”
“I happen to think that Mookie Betts is one of the most underrated stars — I say ‘underrated,’ that’s kind of crazy, right? But I don’t think Mookie Betts gets the credit.”
“Freddie Freeman is like my favorite person, player in the game. He’s ruined Brewers history many times, but I still love him.”
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“My impressions as a pitcher is that [Ohtani is] unbelievable. The game I saw him pitch the other day was, like, uh, a split-finger from the top of the zone all the way to the bottom. Amazing.”
“The other kid is pretty good, the lefty. What’s his name? Shell? [Blake] Snell. I’m joking, of course. I’ve been very disappointed when he’s pitched and I’m in the stadium. He’s really good.”
“And [Tyler] Glasnow is really good. And [Yoshinobu] Yamamoto is really good. The guy at the end — who is the guy at the end throwing 100 with a split? That shouldn’t be fair. We’re going to try to petition the league and see if we can get him suspended for something.”
So, yes, the Dodgers are the favorite. But no team has repeated since the Yankees in 2000. It won’t be easy.
The Blue Jays’ ability to put the ball in play makes them the biggest threat to L.A.’s throne
Verdict: Not Real
The Blue Jays did have the lowest strikeout rate in the majors this season at 17.3% and are coming off a dominant offensive division series against the Yankees. The Brewers, however, had the fifth-lowest strikeout rate and actually scored a few more runs than the Blue Jays this season. Keep in mind that Bo Bichette, one of Toronto’s best offensive players in the regular season, will sit out the ALCS because of a knee injury, and even if the Blue Jays advance without him and he can hit in the World Series, he last played a game on Sept. 6.
As the first game against the Mariners showed, it seems everyone was overreacting just a bit to the Yankees’ series, when the Blue Jays hit .338. I mean, utility infielder Ernie Clement hit .643! That’s not going to continue all October.
That said, team contact rate is a strong October indicator. Look at the leaguewide regular-season strikeout rates (and rankings) of recent World Series winners:
2024 Dodgers: 11th (21.4%)
2023 Texas Rangers: 15th (22.5%)
2022 Houston Astros: second (19.5%)
2021 Atlanta Braves: 16th (22.7%, position players only)
2020 Dodgers: second (20.3%)
2019 Washington Nationals: third (19.8%, position players only)
2018 Boston Red Sox: fifth (19.8%)
Of course, pitching matters, and we’ll see how Toronto’s depth plays out, especially in the bullpen. Milwaukee’s pitching — with the creative and nontraditional ways Murphy deploys it, including in the bullpen — is better than Toronto’s. Let’s call the Blue Jays and Brewers co-upset favorites. Strikeout rate does project as a problem for the Mariners, who ranked 24th in the majors at 23.3%. The Dodgers? They were 12th at 21.9%, so about the same as last season.
Verdict: Real?
Through the division series, it certainly looked as if it was Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who hit .529/.550/1.059 with three home runs and nine RBIs in four games against the Yankees. Guerrero is exactly what you want for an October lineup anchor: a hitter who hits for a high average with power, an excellent contact rate (he finished 19th in highest contact rate among qualified hitters) and a low chase rate (90th percentile).
But after the Mariners won the first two games in Toronto, a new potential star is brewing thanks to the clutch hitting of Polanco. Check out his big moments so far:
• Hit two home runs off Tarik Skubal in Game 2 of the ALDS, the only runs off Skubal, in a game the Mariners eventually won 3-2.
• Walked and scored the tying run in the seventh inning of Game 5 of the ALDS — and delivered the series-winning walk-off hit in the 15th.
• Delivered the go-ahead, two-out single in the sixth inning of Game 1 of the ALCS and then another RBI single in the eighth in Seattle’s 3-1 victory.
• Went 2-for-5 with two runs and the go-ahead three-run home run in Seattle’s Game 2 win.
Polanco is the first player in MLB history to have a go-ahead hit in the fifth inning or later of three consecutive playoff games. His overall line doesn’t scream domination — .258/.303/.548, three home runs, eight RBIs — but he has been in the middle of the key moments for the Mariners so far as they sit two wins away from their first World Series appearance.
Others off to hot starts:
Guerrero: .375/.429/.750, 3 HR, 9 RBIs
Cal Raleigh: .357/.471/.607, 2 HR, 5 RBIs
Clement: .476/.478/.667, 1 HR, 5 RBIs
Jackson Chourio:.333/.348/.571, 1 HR, 7 RBIs
Teoscar Hernandez:.276/.323/.621, 3 HR, 9 RBIs
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And if you want an October MVP sleeper: Roki Sasaki, who’s doing his best Mariano Rivera impersonation (at least until his shaky performance in Game 1 against the Brewers, in which Blake Treinen had to rescue him to get the final out after Sasaki gave up two walks and one run). The Dodgers entered the postseason with no idea who their closer would be — and Sasaki has stepped up. Check out his first four appearances:
Oct. 1 vs. Cincinnati Reds: Closed out an 8-4 win with a two-strikeout ninth.
Oct. 4 at Phillies: Closed out a 5-3 win.
Oct. 6 at Phillies: After the rest of the pen nearly blew it, he got the final out in a 4-3 win.
Oct. 9 vs. Phillies:Pitched three perfect innings in the Dodgers’ 11-inning, 2-1 win to eliminate Philly.
We’re about to witness Shohei Ohtani’s October breakout
Verdict: Not Real
I could be wrong — you should never bet against Ohtani. Of course, he already has made his pitching breakout, beating the Phillies with six solid innings (three runs, nine strikeouts). He did homer twice in the wild-card opener against the Reds but then went 1-for-18 against the Phillies with nine strikeouts. Granted, he faced three of the toughest lefties in the game in that series — but remember, he was only so-so last postseason (by his own impossible standards), hitting .230/.373/.393. As hard as he pushes himself all season, and now that he’s also pitching again, it’s a lot to ask of him to keep crushing baseball at this regular-season rate.
Consider this nugget of information as well: Ohtani ranked second overall in the majors in OPS in the regular season (1.014); but against pitches of 97 mph or faster, he drops to 21st in OPS (.889). That’s still awesome. Just not quite as awesome. The Brewers have four pitchers who average 97-plus with their fastballs in Jacob Misiorowski, Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby, plus Jared Koenig (averages 96, touches 99), Nick Mears (averages 95.4, touches 98) and Freddy Peralta (averages 94.8, touches 97-98). Two of those are lefty relievers — Ashby and Koenig — and they’re going to face Ohtani a lot in this series. Ohtani knows what he’s going to get. Let ‘er rip (on both sides).
The Mariners’ vibes are enough to power them through October
Verdict: Real
Well, vibes don’t necessarily win games, but home runs, good starting pitching and strong bullpens do. Sunday’s game was unbelievably huge for Seattle, as the Mariners were coming off that exhausting 15-inning game to beat Detroit, flying from Seattle to Toronto, having to use their No. 5 starter Bryce Miller, who had a 5.68 ERA in the regular season, against Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman — and winning.
It was interesting that Toronto manager John Schneider pulled Gausman after a two-out walk to Julio Rodriguez (which came after the Cal Raleigh home run that tied the score), despite Gausman having thrown only 76 pitches. Rodriguez then scored on a wild pitch and Jorge Polanco ‘s go-ahead single. Miller, meanwhile, also issued a two-out walk in the bottom of the sixth, but Seattle manager Dan Wilson left him in and he got the final out of the inning. The bullpen then finished it off with three hitless innings over only 24 pitches.
Game 2 hinged on another critical Schneider decision when he elected to intentionally walk Raleigh with no outs after Randy Arozarena led off the fifth by reaching second base on an infield single and throwing error. A no-out intentional walk increases the potential for a big inning and that’s exactly what happened. Schneider pulled Trey Yesavage and brought in Louis Varland, who struck out Rodriguez but then got taken deep by Polanco, who blasted that three-run home run to make it 6-3.
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That’s certainly one way to create good vibes.
Look, the Mariners strike out a lot. Even in the Game 1 victory against the Blue Jays, they fanned 11 times compared to only four for Toronto. They struck out 20 times in the 15-inning win against the Tigers. Eugenio Suarez is 4-for-29 in the postseason with 12 strikeouts. Rodriguez is 6-for-29 with 13 strikeouts. Maybe the strikeouts will eventually end up as the Mariners’ fatal flaw. So far, their pitching and power has carried them. But keep in mind that they scored only 32 fewer runs than the Blue Jays in the regular season, despite playing at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. If they stay hot at the plate the way they were in Game 2, they can power their way into the World Series.
Blake Snell looks like The Man on the mound this postseason
Verdict: Real
Some years, the postseason is all about the bullpens. And some years, we get a red-hot starter who delivers all October, like these pitchers from past World Series-winning teams:
2023: Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (5-0, 2.95 ERA)
2022: Framber Valdez, Astros (3-0, 1.44 ERA)
2019: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (5-0, 1.98 ERA)
2017: Justin Verlander, Astros (4-1, 2.21 ERA)
2014: Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants (4-1, 1.03 ERA, one big save)
This might be Snell’s October to remember. Against the Reds in the wild-card round, he gave up two runs in seven innings, taking a shutout into the seventh. Against the Phillies he picked up another win with six scoreless innings in a duel against Cristopher Sanchez. Then, Snell delivered maybe the best starting pitcher performance this decade with his brilliant one-hit, 10-strikeout game over eight innings to beat the Brewers and run his record to 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in the postseason.
Snell made only 11 starts in the regular season, sitting out four months, and L.A. manager Dave Roberts said before Game 1 that the Dodgers probably did slow-play Snell’s return to have him ready for October.
“Could he have probably pitched earlier? Possibly,” Roberts said. “But when you’re talking about that kind of arm, the term of the contract, the shorter term, the season, making sure that he is raring to go for the postseason, through the postseason. So that was certainly part of the math.”
For Snell, he’s determined to keep pitching deeper into games. Before this year, he had made 10 career postseason starts and never completed six innings.
“I think it’s just mindset,” said Snell, who was notoriously unhappy with Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash pulling him in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series after 73 pitches with a 1-0 lead, only to see the Rays lose the game. “As you get older, you learn a lot more, you understand pitching, you understand how important belief is. And you just get better just with age and understanding the game and situations and what pressure really is and how awesome these moments are.”
Teams that have been eliminated
The Phillies will look vastly different when we see them next
Verdict: Not Real
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After the tough four-game loss to the Dodgers, the discussion was how this might be the end of an era for the Phillies. Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suarez — all key members of the core group that has made four consecutive playoff appearances and remained remarkably intact — are all free agents after this season, as is Max Kepler and perhaps Harrison Bader (he has a $10 million mutual option). Six of the regular position players are older than 30. And, quite simply, this group hasn’t gotten it done in the postseason the past three years, especially at the plate.
Thus: Blow it all up! Or at least some of it. But I just don’t see it. This was a 96-win team, and it’s certainly not in the DNA of owner John Middleton and top executive Dave Dombrowski to do anything except keep pushing for a World Series title. Most people in baseball can’t see the Phillies letting Schwarber leave, although there will obviously be interest in him coming off a 56-home run season (the New York Mets, no doubt, are a potentially interested party). Realmuto is a risky signing as he turns 35, but the Phillies don’t have a good alternative at catcher. Suarez is probably the one most likely to leave, just because of the demand for pitchers in free agency.
If there are changes, it might be with Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm. Stott has hit .179 with four RBIs in his past 17 postseason games. In his 38-game postseason career, Bohm has hit .225 with only two home runs and 14 RBIs — often hitting third or fourth in the lineup. The Phillies would probably like to move on from Nick Castellanos, who will make $20 million in the final year of his contract, but there won’t be any trade interest in a player coming off a minus-1.0 WAR season. So, different? Maybe a bit. Vastly different? Probably not.
Having a true ace no longer guarantees October success
Verdict: Real
Tarik Skubal? Gone. Garrett Crochet? Gone. Cristopher Sanchez? Gone. Those three ranked first (Sanchez), third (Skubal) and fourth (Crochet) in Baseball-Reference WAR among pitchers (Paul Skenes, whose Pittsburgh Pirates didn’t make the playoffs, was second).
Look, all three pitched great in October. Skubal gave up four runs in three starts and struck out 36 batters in 20â…” innings; the Tigers lost two of those games anyway. Crochet won his start in the wild-card series, but the Boston Red Sox lost the other two games to the Yankees. Sanchez gave up three runs over two starts against the Dodgers, but the Phillies lost both after he departed.
Though the aces weren’t to blame — you still need your offense to score runs — their inability to pitch deeper into games played a role here as managers are increasingly likely to pull their starter before 100 pitches, even if he’s one of the best starters in baseball. In his Game 5 start against Seattle, Skubal was pulled after six innings and 99 pitches. The Mariners tied the score in the seventh. In his first start against the Dodgers, Sanchez couldn’t quite make it through the sixth inning, giving up two runs and leaving after 94 pitches with a lead, but the Dodgers beat the Phillies’ bullpen. Perhaps it’s instructive that the Red Sox won Crochet’s start 3-1, in part because he threw 117 pitches and left only four outs to the bullpen.
Aces are still enormously valuable. But they’re less valuable than they used to be if they’re only throwing six innings and 90-something pitches.
Aaron Judge finally silenced his October critics — for good
Verdict: Not Real
Judge had a terrific postseason, hitting .500/.581/.692 with seven RBIs in seven games. His .500 average was the third highest in a single postseason (minimum 30 plate appearances) and his 253 wRC+ is in the top 15.
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But silence his critics? Nope. This is New York and — fair or not — until Judge helps lift the Yankees to a World Series championship, he’ll face the pressure of expectations every October in which he plays. Consider Ted Williams. He played in one World Series, hit .200 with one RBI and spent the rest of his career with the reputation that he wasn’t clutch. Consider Barry Bonds. He was terrible in three NLCS with the Pirates early in his career and even after one of the greatest postseasons of all time in 2002 (.356, eight home runs, 1.556 OPS), critics will point out that he wasn’t clutch in the playoffs and never won a ring.
That’s the burden Judge has to carry as one of the greatest hitters of all time.
This was the San Diego Padres’ last best shot at a deep postseason run
Verdict: Real
Never say never, but the future path to continued success for the Padres is littered with mega-contract-sized potholes. First, in the immediate future, they’ll have to address their starting rotation with Michael King, Dylan Cease and Nestor Cortes heading to free agency. The problem: The farm system is weak and the payroll more bloated than two servings of the “Cardiff crack” nachos at Petco Park.
Next up, the contracts: Manny Machado made $17.1 million this season but his salary jumps up to $39 million in 2027 — and his contract runs through 2033; Xander Bogaerts, at $25 million a year and coming off an 11-homer season, is signed through 2033; Fernando Tatis Jr.’s salary eventually jumps from $20.7 million in 2025 to $35.7 million in 2029. Joe Musgrove (two more seasons) and Yu Darvish (three more) are still under contract. The Padres are getting older and more expensive. Maybe they’ll try to stretch it one more year behind their bullpen, but the bottom here — when it arrives — might not be pretty.
The state of Ohio had two playoff teams — two more than it’ll have in 2026
Verdict: Not Real
The Cleveland Guardians are coming off their shocking 88-win division title and the Reds won 83 and made the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2013. It’s easy to dismiss both team’s chances in 2026: Cleveland had trouble scoring runs all season and Cincinnati didn’t exactly roll out the Big Red Machine on offense. The Guardians have the advantage of playing in the AL Central, where no team except Cleveland in the past four seasons has won more than 87 games (the Guardians have done it three times). Both teams will enter 2026 relying again on run prevention while lacking the committed owners needed to invest in some upgrades on offense.
I would still put the odds of at least one of them making the playoffs next season at better than 50% and I especially like where the Reds sit with their rotation. With Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott and Brady Singer, they finished third in FanGraphs WAR among starting rotations. But then they have two big arms to add in 2026: Chase Burns, the No. 2 pick in the 2024 draft who debuted with the Reds this season and struck out 67 batters in 43 innings; and Rhett Lowder, the seventh pick in 2023 who debuted with the Reds in 2024 but sat out much of 2025 because of a forearm strain and then an oblique strain.
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With Nick Martinez headed to free agency after making $21 million in 2025, the Reds can invest that money in some offense. Sal Stewart, who looked good in 18 late-season games with the Reds, has a chance to be an impact rookie, either at third base or first. Noelvi Marte’s midseason transition to right field was pretty seamless, although his bat went away in September (.191, 32 strikeouts, three walks) after he hit well in July and August. They’ll certainly need more power production from Elly De La Cruz, who finished with 22 home runs after somehow hitting only one in a 74-game stretch over the summer.
Playing in the same division as the Brewers and Chicago Cubs isn’t an easy assignment, but if the young hitters can improve — of course, we’ve been saying that about Cincinnati for the past decade — to back up this rotation, the Reds can return to the postseason.
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