Oct 18, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Coming into NBA training camp, optimism abounds. Staffers and players are excited. Seemingly everyone has had the best summer of their lives. It takes a lot more than a preseason loss to dampen anyone’s spirits.
No, dampening spirits is what happens when a team gets punked in the regular season.
Or perhaps when BPI — ESPN’s Basketball Power Index — says a team might not win quite as much as all the optimism suggests.
This year, BPI’s win-total predictions aren’t radically different from what Las Vegas projects, so we’re going to clue you in on what Vegas doesn’t really tell you — things such as the chances your team will gets a top-six seed in the playoffs, its likelihood of making the Finals, and maybe even the reason.
From the No. 1 team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, down to a few squads ranked in the 20s, here’s what BPI forecasts. The complete set of numbers is here and updated daily during the season.
BPI’s top six in the Western Conference
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 1 overall)
OKC has a 98% chance of earning a top-four seed. For perspective, that’s like having an eight-point lead with two minutes left in a game.
I’m not sure whether people realize how deep OKC is. Last season, the net points metric we use to evaluate players was positive for everyone in the Thunder’s rotation and a couple of guys outside of their rotation — 12 team members in total. In contrast, the Thunder’s Finals’ opponents, the Pacers, had just five players positive in the regular season.
No. 2 Denver Nuggets (No. 3)
The Nuggets have a 67% chance of earning a top-four seed, which brings home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
The gap between the Nuggets’ starters and their bench was the biggest in the NBA last season. The starters added 7.6 points to their scoring margin per game, and the bench took away 3.8. That pattern has been true for years. But this past summer, the net points metric suggests the team improved — from Michael Porter Jr. to Cam Johnson, from Russell Westbrook to Tim Hardaway Jr., and from DeAndre Jordan to Jonas Valanciunas.
No. 3 Houston Rockets (No. 4)
Houston has a 49% chance to take a top-three seed.
This accounts for Fred VanVleet’s season-ending injury, but BPI sees pretty good depth to compensate. The net points metric had these Rockets as the bottom four players on the roster last season: Cam Whitmore, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green and Reed Sheppard. Of those, only the second-year point guard Sheppard returns.
Oh, and they got Kevin Durant.
No. 4 LA Clippers (No. 6)
The Clippers have a 21% chance of progressing to the Western Conference finals, lower than they’d like with all their veterans.
The Clippers are the oldest team in the NBA heading into the season, with eight of their rotation players over 30: Nic Batum, Bradley Beal, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Brook Lopez and Chris Paul.
But with those guys plus three regulars under 30 — Ivica Zubac, John Collins and Derrick Jones Jr. — that’s a lot of quality players to step in if or when Leonard is out.
No. 5 Minnesota Timberwolves (No. 9)
The Wolves are in the same division as OKC and Denver, so their chance to win it all is small (3%), but their shot at getting a top-six seed is 63%.
Anthony Edwards’ combination of scoring from 3-point range and from the foul line was worth plus-5.2 net points per 48 minutes last year, second only to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who wasn’t as balanced.
Edwards added only plus-1.9 net points from those two areas as a rookie, but he has gotten better every season. Shooting almost 40% from 3 last season helped him improve so much year-over-year. Is that sustainable? Probably not.
No. 6 Golden State Warriors (No. 11)
The Warriors have only a 25% chance at a top-four seed, but a 51% shot to land in the top six.
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One of the things that distinguished the glory days of Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson was that they all played better when they were together on the court. That hasn’t happened with Jimmy Butler … yet.
Some of that has to do with getting familiar with each other, a real effect that should show itself this season. BPI doesn’t factor that in right now (machines still have plenty to learn), so it is still a bit skeptical based on what the Warriors did last season.
BPI’s play-in candidates in the West
No. 7 Memphis Grizzlies (No. 14)
BPI is a little more optimistic on Memphis’ playoff chances than Vegas, pegging the Grizzlies at 51%, compared with 43%.
Memphis won 48 games last year with Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells, Santi Aldama and Desmond Bane. Bane is gone, but they picked up more depth with Ty Jerome, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a great team guy.
Morant and Jackson always project to miss games, which BPI acknowledges, but Morant can be dominant when he is playing. The Grizzlies won 48 last year with both of them missing games, so BPI sees a similar season in 2025-26.
No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers (No. 15)
The Lakers have a 70% chance to avoid a play-in and make the playoffs straight up, thus saving LeBron James’ legs for a week. That 70% is like a four- or five-point lead entering the fourth quarter.
The Lakers’ stars are still building chemistry. Luka Doncic averaged plus-3.1 offensive net points per 48 minutes with James in the game, but plus-8.3 with him out, a number right up there with Nikola Jokic or SGA.
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Currently, James is slated to be sidelined until mid-November. He’s still a star (though his impact is probably 5-6 points worse than it was at peak LeBron), so missing time hurts, but it’s only a few games so it doesn’t kill the team’s projection.
One big reason is that Doncic is so good on his own — playing at that plus-8.3 level or even plus-5 over longer periods of time.
No. 9 Dallas Mavericks (No. 17)
BPI gives the Mavs a 7% chance of reaching the West finals — and a 51% shot at making the playoffs.
BPI doesn’t like rookies. Most coaches don’t like most rookies. Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis were No. 1 picks, but as rookies their teams won about one-third of their games. This year’s No. 1 pick is Cooper Flagg, though, and he doesn’t project to be a normal No. 1 pick, but to be good right away.
What if he plays at plus-2 net points per 48 minutes, which is essentially the bottom of All-Star level?
If Flagg is that good, which very few rookies are (Jokic and Chris Paul come to mind), Dallas moves up to fourth in the West in projected BPI, with a better chance at those conference finals.
No. 10 San Antonio Spurs (No. 18)
Per BPI, the Spurs have around a 50-50 chance at the playoffs.
It’s remarkable that Victor Wembanyama has a legitimate chance to go three years into his career without even making the playoffs.
He looks like a superstar with the most intimidating presence on defense we’ve seen in decades. But he has averaged 58 games in two seasons, and big men tend to have a hard time staying healthy.
His offensive versatility looks good too, but he turns the ball over a lot. He has 19 turnovers in 79 minutes of preseason action and had the lowest assist-to-turnover rate among the 40 players with the highest turnover rates last year.
It took Steph Curry until his fourth season to make the playoffs, so it won’t be a terrible sign if Wemby also takes that long.
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Paolo Banchero elevates for alley-oop
Paolo Banchero gets up for alley-oop slam vs. New Orleans Pelicans
BPI’s top six in the Eastern Conference
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 2 overall)
Despite missing the conference finals the past two years, BPI gives Cleveland a 51% chance of making it this year.
Donovan Mitchell was incredibly important to the Cavaliers last year. In their wins, he averaged plus-6.1 net points per 48 minutes. In their losses, he was negative at minus-2.4 net points per 48 minutes. That difference was one of the top 10 biggest last year. Not that stopping Mitchell is easy, but it suggests a fairly straightforward key for opponents to limit the Cavs.
The Cavs also got the most benefit of injuries of any team last year, between their own injuries and opponent injuries, gaining 5.7 wins relative to average.
No. 2 New York Knicks (No. 5)
The Knicks have a 95% chance of having a top-six seed at playoff time. They have a 49% chance of being in the top two in the East.
Jalen Brunson was indeed Clutch Player of the Year last year, adding plus-13 offensive net points per 100 possessions of clutch time, which, of course, ignores his defense. To a significant degree, BPI sees much of the same as last year, which makes sense given the returns of the Knicks’ top six to seven players.
But that also assumes the coaching change doesn’t hurt them.
No. 3 Orlando Magic (No. 7)
The Magic have a 56% chance of a top-four seed in the weak Eastern Conference. That’s like starting the fourth quarter with a two-point lead, so the injury bug had better not hit them like it did last year.
For the Magic to take a leap, they need Paolo Banchero to play like he did after the trade deadline last year when he was a top-20 player, posting plus-3.2 net points per 48 minutes.
In the month before the trade deadline, he was quite poor, at minus-3.3 net points per 48 minutes.
No. 4 Atlanta Hawks (No. 8)
The Hawks have a 24% chance at a top-two seed in the East. That’s like pulling out a win when entering the fourth quarter down five or six points, so not at all impossible. They have an 85% chance at landing in the top six.
Atlanta was 18th in defense last year. The team hasn’t sniffed the top half of the defensive rankings since before COVID. That happens to correspond to how long Trae Young has been in Atlanta.
But with 50 or 60 games of Kristaps Porzingis and a full season of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, BPI projects the Hawks to be a top-10 defense (just barely).
No. 5 Philadelphia 76ers (No. 10)
BPI projects Joel Embiid will play 64 games, which is part of what gives the 76ersa 90% chance to make the playoffs, something they’ve done every season in which Embiid has played 50 games.
Embiid has always been a high-risk, high-reward player. When he has played, he has been great.
But last year was different. Even when he played, he wasn’t great, posting a career-low shooting percentage among other statistical duds. He was still an above-average player, but not the dominant force he has been. Usually, that kind of change is a blip, not a trend.
The 76ers’ immediate future might depend on that.
No. 6 Detroit Pistons (No. 12)
The Pistons went from 14 wins to 44 in a single season. That kind of bump can mean a regression the following year, but BPI sees them replicating last year, with a projected win total of 44 and about a 30% chance of advancing to the second round of the playoffs.
Cade Cunningham jumped into All-Star range last season, in part by creating very high-quality shots for teammates (fifth in the league, per GeniusIQ).
He was looking for and finding guys like Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart and Ausar Thompson, all of whom got better from 2024 to 2025.
That’s a young core to go with steady veteran Tobias Harris.
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Perk: Celtics will make the playoffs
Kendrick Perkins joins “NBA Today” to break down what a successful season looks like for the Celtics.
BPI’s play-in candidates in the East
No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks (No. 13)
BPI can’t predict whether Milwaukee trades Giannis Antetokounmpo away, but that does probably depend on how close the team comes to the Finals. And BPI only gives the Bucks a 13% chance at the Eastern Conference finals.
Here are three reasons BPI is generally skeptical of Milwaukee’s chances:
1. Milwaukee lost Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez, two consistently good players.
2. Newly acquired Myles Turner played terribly the first two months of last season before playing well, and he has a pattern of playing half-seasons well.
3. Kevin Porter Jr. played the best 30 games of his career for the Bucks at the end of the season. A repeat is unlikely.
No. 8 Boston Celtics (No. 16)
Supposedly, the Celtics aren’t taking a gap year, and BPI does give them a 50% chance to make the playoffs. But they could easily decide midway into the season to take a gap semester.
Jayson Tatum’s absence means more shots for the Celtics who remain. Jaylen Brown will get some, but he will lose efficiency in doing so, probably just enough that his overall productivity will drop some.
Payton Pritchard will get some shots, too, but, per GeniusIQ, he has outshot his personalized shot quality by over 3% the past three years, behind only two other players with a thousand shots in that time period.
Derrick White probably can’t take more shots and retain his great efficiency, either. BPI projects an average offense this year. We’ll see.
No. 9 Indiana Pacers (No. 19)
With Tyrese Haliburton out for the season, BPI gives the Pacers a 36% chance to make the playoffs.
It’s ironic now, but the Pacers had the second biggest injury advantage last year in the regular season, gaining plus-5.6 wins due to their own injuries relative to opponents’. Some regression from that was bound to happen, and they obviously won’t replicate that with Haliburton out for the year.
The Pacers play fast, in general, which helps Pascal Siakam, and it should help Bennedict Mathurin. Siakam projects well with BPI, Mathurin not as much.
I’ve been a Mathurin advocate for a while, so I want to believe in the generally high level of play he has shown in the preseason. If he continues that, and the remaining Pacers stay healthy, their postseason chances are clearly higher.
No. 10 Toronto Raptors (No. 20)
The Raptors sit at the eighth or ninth best team in the East, per BPI, and with the highest chance of landing in a play-in, at 57%.
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At some point after the trade deadline last year, there was a statistic floating around that said the Raptors had the easiest stretch of 20 games in NBA history, based on the records of the teams they were to face. BPI can’t do all of NBA history, but it does confirm that they had the weakest schedule after the trade deadline by a pretty good margin.
So the fact that Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl, Scottie Barnes and Ja’Kobe Walter were all pretty good in that time frame should be put in context.
For this season, Walter drops to “average” instead of good, especially in light of how poor he was before then, but the others guys remain in the good range.
For what it’s worth, though, BPI doesn’t think any of them are particularly special (or Brandon Ingram, whom the Raptors acquired last year).
Three teams with high-variance players
West No. 11 Portland Trail Blazers (No. 23)
BPI gives the Blazers a 15% chance to make the play-in. Not impossible, but it’s like them being down four with two minutes left.
Through games in November, Deni Avdija posted minus-1.1 net points per 48 minutes, primarily driven by his first quarters, which ranked among the worst in the league.
Over the remainder of the year, though, Avdija got better and better. After the trade deadline, Avdija was putting up plus-3.7 net points per 48 minutes, a number that had him in the top 20 to 30 players in that stretch.
East No. 12 Chicago Bulls (No. 24)
BPI doesn’t like the Bulls’ chances at the playoffs, about 6%, below the 16% that Vegas sees. Maybe it’s because …
Josh Giddey was a wildly different player before the trade deadline last year and after. So what if Giddey played at a better level throughout the coming year, say plus-2 net points per 48 minutes?
When BPI does those calculations, it would push the Bulls past the Heat and make them a legitimate play-in possibility, but not a top-six seed.
East No. 13 Charlotte Hornets (No. 27)
BPI really doesn’t think much of Charlotte, sadly, with a 1.4% chance at the playoffs.
This is one team that BPI ranks poorly, but I’m intrigued by the talent. LaMelo Ball has been good (not great) when healthy. Miles Bridges has athleticism and occasionally really good games. Brandon Miller has shown real improvement in two years. And Kon Knueppel had a great freshman year on the college court.
But Charlotte’s bench, to be generous, has limitations. If that core stays healthy, it should be able to score better than the 28th-ranked offense that BPI projects.
If Knueppel plays well, posting, say, plus-1 net points per 48 minutes, BPI sees a 1.5-points improvement as a team, which would put it on the fringe of the play-in.
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