This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
Until they clinch, the Padres arenâ€t going to talk about their postseason rotation plans. I guess thatâ€s fair enough.
But pretty soon, itâ€s going to be the most important question they need to answer.
The Padres can clinch a playoff spot TONIGHT at Petco Park, and I suspect the place will be rocking. (As usual.) Nick Pivetta is slated to face the Brewers in what seems likely to be his final start of the regular season.
Pivetta has been the rotationâ€s stalwart. He has posted a 2.81 ERA across 30 starts and has been a steadying presence all year long. Presuming Monday is his final start, Pivetta should be lined up to start Game 1 of a potential Wild Card Series on a weekâ€s worth of rest.
This past weekend served as a de facto audition for the second and third spots in the Wild Card Series rotation. On Sunday, Michael King looked the part.
Which isnâ€t to say King was flawless over his five-plus scoreless frames. He walked four White Sox hitters and missed plenty of spots. But it was the first time since he returned from the injured list earlier this month that he looked like himself.
“Iâ€m definitely getting close,†King said. “This last week, I almost liked being able to focus on mechanics and pitch sequencing and scouting the other team. Almost every time [previously], it was like, ‘How are you feeling after that last one?â€, making sure Iâ€m healthy. I didnâ€t want to have those conversations. I wanted to be like: ‘Youâ€re not on rehab anymore. Just go out there and compete.’â€
The Padres havenâ€t finalized any plans, obviously, but I think theyâ€d greatly prefer for King to pitch Game 2 of a Wild Card Series. Heâ€ll have one more start to establish a rhythm after heâ€d missed 3 1/2 months with a nerve injury that affected his shoulder strength, then a left knee injury.
“Itâ€s more so just getting back into the flow of the season,†King said. “As a rehab guy, obviously youâ€re out there cheering on your team. But youâ€re not part of the competition. So thatâ€s the aspect of the game that almost comes back last. Iâ€ve been really trying to lock in. … Itâ€s definitely a process. But, yeah, weâ€ve got to turn it on.â€
If King looks sharp in his next outing — presumably on Friday night against the Diamondbacks — heâ€ll have earned his spot. He has already proven that heâ€s more than capable of handling the October spotlight. He was the Padres†Game 1 starter last postseason. And when he has been healthy this year, King has still looked like an ace.
Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish and Randy Vásquez round out the current rotation. Thereâ€s a case to be made for all three of them, though the track records of Darvish and Cease are obviously far more extensive.
Then again, both have been wildly inconsistent this season. Over the weekend, they showed signs of quality but were essentially mediocre against a poor White Sox offense — Cease especially. He has the highest ceiling of the group, but he has rarely tapped into that ceiling and hasnâ€t performed in the postseason.
Darvishâ€s playoff track record is a mixed bag. But he was excellent for the Padres last year. Then again, his ERA sits north of 5, and he has been especially prone to early blow-ups. Thatâ€s untenable in a short postseason series (and potentially a winner-take-all Game 3).
Which brings us to Vásquez, who has been nails this season in the fifth-starter role the Padres have assigned him. He has been sent down a couple times, and each time, he has returned and continued to thrive. His raw numbers — a 3.94 ERA across 25 starts — are the best of the group, even if his peripheral numbers arenâ€t.
Still, the Padres have very rarely entrusted Vásquez with working deep into games, and theyâ€ve twice removed him from their rotation entirely. Would they now entrust him with a start in the postseason?
Vásquez will get at least one more shot to make his case. Same goes for Darvish and Cease. The Padres have other goals to worry about right now, so they wonâ€t be tipping their hand.
“Itâ€s interesting, because youâ€re living in two different places,†said manager Mike Shildt. “Weâ€ve got to live in the present. And then evaluate and have plans for moving forward. But … the planning will ultimately take place when we wrap up our opportunity to play in the postseason.â€
Possibly later tonight — after the champagne is popped.
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