When the calendar flipped from July to August, Framber Valdez was making a case for a top-five Cy Young Award finish and a massive contract as this winterâ€s best free-agent starting pitcher.
Through 21 starts, Valdez was 11-4 with a 2.62 ERA, striking out 141 batters over 134 innings. The Astros? They were 62-47, good for a 4 1/2-game lead in the American League West that had them in position to advance to the postseason for the ninth consecutive season.
Things took a turn for the worse for the Astros and their ace over the final two months, costing Houston a spot in the playoffs. For Valdez, the question is whether his performance over the final two months — which included an unfortunate incident that raised plenty of eyebrows — will have a significant impact on his free agency.
“His numbers for the entire season still look solid,†an AL executive said. “But [his performance] the past two months will cause teams to really look under the hood in search of some answers.â€
Valdez went 2-7 with a 6.05 ERA over his final 10 starts, striking out 46 over 58 innings. His skid coincided with Houstonâ€s slide, which saw the Astros go 25-28, leaving them on the outside looking in at the postseason.
But one pitch from Valdez stood out above all others during that stretch.
During his Sept. 2 start against the Yankees, Valdez gave up a grand slam to Trent Grisham, throwing the pitch even after catcher César Salazar motioned for him to step off the rubber. Two pitches later, Valdez fired a fastball that hit Salazar — who had called for a curveball — in the chest. Both players insisted it was simply a cross-up, but Valdezâ€s reaction after the pitch — he turned his back on his batterymate, showing no concern after hitting him — left some around the game wondering if Valdezâ€s act had been intentional.
Could the incident have a lasting impact on the way other clubs view Valdez as he seeks a new contract?
“I definitely think that incident will impact his market; Iâ€m not sure to what degree, but I am confident that there are players and teams that will be somewhat hesitant to trust him,†a National League executive said. “That said, heâ€s really good, so heâ€ll still do just fine. Iâ€d imagine that heâ€ll find a team willing to look past that incident and pay him, but I would think that heâ€ll likely have fewer teams in on him than he otherwise might.â€
Valdez may have the best track record of any starter on the market, a list that includes Ranger Suárez, Dylan Cease, Michael King and Zac Gallen. Those four pitchers are all one to two years younger than Valdez, who turns 32 in November. So while his age might impact the length of his next deal, Valdez could land an average annual salary higher than any other pitcher in free agency — assuming the cross-up incident doesnâ€t hover over him like a black cloud.
“I think some clubs might have pause over that incident, but donâ€t think it will limit him too much,†an AL executive said. “There are so few quality starters. Heâ€s been both durable and quality.â€
Even with his subpar stretch to end the year, Valdez finished the season with a 13-11 record and a 3.66 ERA, topping the 190-inning mark for the third time in four seasons.
Valdez has been a workhorse for the Astros since joining the rotation in 2020, throwing 973 innings in 154 outings, all but one as a starter. Only four pitchers have thrown more innings during that stretch, and Valdezâ€s 3.23 ERA is lower than all but one in that group (Zack Wheeler at 2.91). His 73 wins since the start of 2020 are tied with Max Fried for the most in the Majors.
“The guy has been amazingly consistent for years,†an AL executive said. “He should have a very robust market. Age could hold him back from getting Fried-type money. I donâ€t think the catcher thing was a huge deal, but maybe Iâ€m far enough from the Houston market that it didnâ€t make big waves in my world.â€
“Every team could use a starter like Valdez,†an NL executive said. “The faux cross-up was a bad look, but it can negatively impact his market only so much given the number of likely suitors.â€
Who might those suitors be?
As much as he has meant to the Astros, most within the industry expect Houston to extend a qualifying offer to Valdez, then let him sign elsewhere and collect the Draft-pick compensation.
The Blue Jays are facing the loss of Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber this offseason, while Kevin Gausman has one year remaining on his deal and José BerrÃos can opt out of his contract after the 2026 season. Toronto could look to add a big arm to the rotation this winter, with Valdez ranking as one of the best on the market.
Another AL East team would be an interesting landing spot for Valdez: Baltimore. The Orioles should look to add the frontline starter they never added last winter following Corbin Burnes†departure. President of baseball operations Mike Elias was the Astros†scouting director when Valdez signed in 2015, so he has a history with the left-hander.
The Mets†front office is also familiar with Valdez — president of baseball operations David Stearns was the Astros†assistant GM when Houston signed the pitcher — and given New York’s collapse this season, the possibility of the club adding a veteran arm to the rotation seems likely.
Other clubs that could be in the mix for Valdez include the Padres, Red Sox, Rangers, Tigers and Giants, each of whom could use an arm like his in their respective rotations.
“I think heâ€ll have a healthy market,†an AL executive said. “I think the cross-up stuff could lead to extra questions, but I donâ€t know how much it hampers his market in the end.â€
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