Fantasy basketball: Eric Karabell’s ‘Do not draft’ list

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  Eric KarabellOct 3, 2025, 07:10 AM ET

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  Eric Karabell is a senior writer for fantasy baseball, football and basketball at ESPN. Eric is a charter member of FSWA Hall of Fame and author of “The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments”.

Charlotte Hornets PG LaMelo Ball averaged a career-high 25.2 PPG last season, along with 7.4 APG and 3.8 3PG. Those are major numbers we love in fantasy hoops, but they lack some context.

Deni Avdija and Christian Braun scored more points last season. Bub Carrington and Scotty Pippen Jr. dished out more assists. Gary Trent Jr. drained more 3-pointers. Ultimately, 297 fellows appeared in more NBA games than Ball last season, and 177 played more minutes.

This theme of extreme absence is hardly new for Ball, a wonderful talent who expertly runs an offense and enjoys many strengths, but staying healthy and active is, unfortunately, not among those traits. The No. 3 selection in the 2020 NBA draft played in 51 games as a rookie, then a surprising 75 games in his second season. Over the past three seasons, Ball has played in a total of 105 games. His 2024-25 campaign ended in March with surgeries on his ankle and wrist.

Ball, 24, is productive, but c’mon, 105 games in three seasons? Including playoffs, Indiana Pacers reserves T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin appeared in 102 games last season alone!

Enough about Ball, who is preliminarily going in the third or fourth round. It is optimistic, but with so many durable, productive players on the board, I will pass. We know Ball is a great player, but great players are not enough in fantasy sports. For our purposes in basketball, even in daily leagues in which we can work hard and manipulate volume, we still need more volume and consistency.

Of course, Ball is hardly alone when it comes to missing games. Here are others to fade because their ADP treats them like “this is the year they will play ’em all!”

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• Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies (ADP 28.4): From physical ailments to personal issues, Morant has played in 59 games over the past two seasons. He has yet to play more than 68 games in a season. It’s more than that, though. Unlike Ball, Morant scored, rebounded and assisted less last season than he did in 2022-23. Perhaps those numbers rise now that Desmond Bane left town, but a third-round ADP remains too optimistic considering all factors. Morant is a talented player and a nightly highlight reel, but not for enough nights.

• Zion Williamson, PF, New Orleans Pelicans (ADP 35.3): Williamson appeared in only 30 more games than you and me last season. He’s a champ when it comes to scoring production per minute, but again, we need more minutes than what Neemias Queta and Adem Bona provided last season. Williamson appeared in 70 games two seasons ago, but his production was way down. This is not a 30 PPG option. Williamson has never been a relevant rebounder or blocker of shots, and he hurts fantasy teams in free throw percentage. Fade him in the first five rounds, at least, and treat LA Clippers SF Kawhi Leonard similarly. It isn’t only the missed games. Leonard simply does not provide the fantasy numbers most think he does.

• Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers (ADP 56.6): This ADP is going to rise in October because it always does. The 76ers will claim their MVP-skilled centerpiece is healthy, and then something will go awry. Embiid played in 19 games last season, mainly due to a left knee injury that never seemed to get better, and his production was way down when he played. Even if he is ready for opening day, the team must be cautious during the season. I will say getting Embiid in the sixth round is quite a feat, even if he plays in only 50 games. Still, let someone else deal with this. Cs Myles Turner and Jalen Duren are going later. Get them.

  Injuries are already a problem

  Paul George has durability issues and is coming off summer knee surgery. Bill Streicher/Imagn Images

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• We don’t know when we will see Dallas Mavericks PG Kyrie Irving, but it won’t be soon. Perhaps you can stash Irving in an injured list spot, but do not invest in the first 100 picks in redraft formats. Irving tore his left ACL in March, and even if he returns to play by the All-Star break in February, he isn’t playing close to every game for a playoff-bound team. Irving last suited up more than 60 times in the 2018-19 campaign.

• Pelicans PG Dejounte Murray tore his right Achilles on New Year’s Eve, and early reports claim he might not debut this season until January. Fantasy managers should not expect typical statistics when he does return. Murray’s scoring was down to 17.5 PPG in his first season with the Pelicans, though we love the assists and steals. Be cautious with expectations. There is a time to stash an injured player, but chances are most fantasy managers will lose patience by Christmas, so the draft pick is wasted.

  At least with Boston Celtics PF Jayson Tatum, Portland Trail Blazers PG Damian Lillard and Indiana Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton, each of whom tore an Achilles during the NBA playoffs, we can fade them on draft day knowing they will likely miss the entire season. There is no need to stash them. Don’t be fooled by anyone likely to miss the first few months. They almost always miss more time than that.

• Year 1 with the 76ers did not go well for veteran PF Paul George. He is not a durable player to start with, so we could harp on him missing half the season, but he never became comfortable in his new offense. Don’t blame Embiid, either. They barely played together. Overall, George played passively, averaging only 13.9 FGA and scoring 16.2 PPG. Things might not improve much if the 76ers have relative health. George is already on the mend from summer knee surgery, and this should push his start date back and his ADP out of the top 100. We have no problem investing in Ball, Morant, Williamson, Embiid, George and others if their ADP slips. Drafts are about value. George could have value.

  It’s not always about the injuries

• The good thing about New York Knicks SF Mikal Bridges is he never misses a game. Like, really, he plays every single night, and that surely matters in fantasy. The problem is the fantasy numbers aren’t special. Bridges has never contributed many rebounds and assists, and while he is a solid defender, it does not translate to steals and blocked shots. Volume is nice, certainly for points formats, but even a Round 5 ADP remains too generous. His Villanova/Knicks teammate Josh Hart rebounds and passes considerably more, so he is better value.

• New Atlanta Hawks PF Kristaps Porzingis is far from durable and may belong with the injured folks, but he isn’t injured today, at least as far as we know. Porzingis probably isn’t approaching 20 PPG or 7 RPG on this Hawks team, with a PG with super-high usage in Trae Young and emerging C Onyeka Okongwu handling the boards. Porzingis no longer carries a top-50 ADP, but he may disappoint investors several rounds later, too.

• Give new Clippers PF John Collins credit for averaging 19.2 PPG and 8.2 RPG for last season’s Utah Jazz (even if it was only 40 games), but it is hard to see that production coming with his new team. The Clippers also boast a usage-heavy PG in James Harden, scorers in Bradley Beal and Kawhi Leonard, and C Ivica Zubac led the NBA in total rebounds last season. Collins might average numbers like his final season with the Hawks (13.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG), which is fine if you get him later than the first 10 rounds or so.

• New Trail Blazers PG Jrue Holiday has certainly enjoyed a successful career, as he has earned defensive plaudits and won a pair of NBA titles. He just isn’t much of a fantasy option anymore, even with an ADP coming after the 10th round. Perhaps PG Scoot Henderson (No. 3 pick in 2023) will never become a star, but the Blazers must find out. When Portland does move Holiday to a contender in trade, the numbers still won’t match what we remember from his Milwaukee Bucks seasons. We harped on this narrative a year ago in describing Mavericks SG Klay Thompson, and Thompson delivered his worst season since he was a rookie.

• Mavericks SF/PF Cooper Flagg is going to matter in fantasy right away, but he is the exception when it comes to rookies. Most fail to produce fantasy relevant statistics during their first season. Last season, San Antonio Spurs PG Stephon Castle won the Rookie of the Year award, but most of his numbers came after the All-Star break, and he didn’t finish in the top 100 on the Player Rater. Flagg will. He is special. Don’t expect Spurs PG/SG Dylan Harper, 76ers SG VJ Edgecombe or other top draft picks to deliver relevant fantasy statistics in Year 1. Flagg seems likely to be overdrafted in most every league, as it would be surprising if he matches most of his Duke stats initially (19.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG), but he should be good enough.

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