Edwin Díaz puts odds of Mets return in free agency at ’50-50′

When asked about returning to a team in free agency, MLB players usually trot lines that boil down to, “I’d love to, this is a great organization, we’re going to sit down and see what we can do.”

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Let’s just say New York Mets closer Edwin Díaz didn’t do that.

Speaking to reporters ahead of the 2025 MLB Awards in Las Vegas on Thursday, Díaz was asked what he thinks his chances of returning the Mets are after opting out of his record five-year, $102 million deal. His answer: 50-50.

Which is better than a lot of other possible answers, but still probably not what Mets fans want to hear.

Díaz did follow tradition by praising both New York and the Mets organization, but also indicated he wasn’t interested in giving them any sort of discount and is ready to be happy somewhere else.

That’s probably the right angle to take when the owner of the team in question is also the richest man in baseball. Mets owner Steve Cohen is currently trying to get his team on the right track after an extremely disappointing and expensive 2025, and two of the items at the top of his to-do list will be either retaining or replacing Díaz and first baseman Pete Alonso.

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Díaz is entering free agency after one of the best seasons of his career, just like he did in 2022 when he landed that $102 million contract. In both seasons, he earned All-Star honors and the Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year Award.

To retain Díaz, early indications are it will take, well, Edwin Díaz money. The Athletic reported Wednesday that Díaz is believed to be seeking essentially the same deal he got three years ago.

Edwin Díaz is the top arm on the relief market. He will receive interest beyond the Mets. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)

(Brandon Sloter via Getty Images)

Díaz is, of course, three years older than he was when he got that deal, so the question then becomes whether Cohen believes if the current form of the right-hander holds a similar market value. Díaz opting out of the deal was understandable from his perspective, but we’re also talking about a reliever in his 30s. Those are rarely great bets for deals spanning a half-decade.

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There’s also the fact that while Díaz’s 2025 was great, his 2024 saw him blow seven saves and post a 3.52 ERA while dealing with a shoulder impingement and his 2023 saw him miss the entire season with a torn patellar tendon.

That’s what the Mets got in their first ride with Díaz as a nine-figure reliever — three seasons that boil down to the good, the bad and the ugly. You typically want more than one good season out of three when you’re paying that level of money, but that’s a risky bet with pretty much any reliever.

This is MLB we’re talking about, though, in which every contender spends at least part of the offseason waking up from nightmares of an unreliable bullpen in the playoffs. Díaz is No. 11 on Yahoo Sports’ free-agent rankings and easily the top reliever, which means there is going to significant interest from teams with deep pockets beyond the Mets.

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