HOUSTON — With free agency underway, the Astros will be looking to bolster their rotation and their bullpen, though the rotation is probably on the front burner. Houston gave veteran left-hander Framber Valdez a qualifying offer, but he likely rejects it and hits the open market, leaving a big hole in the Astros†rotation for 2026.
Hereâ€s a look at some of the starting pitchers on the market and how they might fit in H-town. (Ages represent a playerâ€s baseball age in 2026.)
If the Astros need a dependable workhorse arm to replace Valdez, Cease would fit the bill considering heâ€s made at least 32 starts in five consecutive seasons. Cease struggled with consistency this season, posting an 8-12 record with a 4.55 ERA in 32 starts. His velocity, whiff percentage and strikeout percentage all remained near the top of the league rankings, though walks and a lack of ground balls came back to hurt him at times. Cease remains one of the most durable starters in the game, and he will surely draw interest from several pitching-needy clubs after striking out more than 200 batters for a fifth consecutive season. Cease received a qualifying offer from the Padres, so the Astros would lose a Draft pick if they sign him (they gained one in next yearâ€s Draft for Hunter Brownâ€s top three Cy Young finish).
Another pitcher who received a qualifying offer, the left-hander would be a solid replacement for Valdez to slot in the rotation behind Brown. An All-Star in 2024, Suárez opened ‘25 by going 7-3 with a 2.15 ERA in 13 first-half starts. He struggled after the break (5-5, 4.40 ERA), but Suárez has posted a 3.59 ERA in four full seasons as a starting pitcher, providing solid work over that stretch.
Eflin posted a 5.93 ERA this past season, which ended for him in July with a back injury. He was a terrific trade acquisition for the Orioles from the Rays in 2024, going 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA in nine starts. He was Baltimoreâ€s Opening Day starter in ‘25, and he left his third start of the season on April 7 with a lat strain and missed a month. He gave up a whopping 18 homers in 71 1/3 innings and posted a 1.42 WHIP, so he could be a candidate for a bargain contract while seeking a bounceback season.
From 2020-24, Gallen was one of the most consistent starters in the league, going 50-31 with a 3.34 ERA over 128 starts. He posted a pair of stellar seasons in ’22 and ’23 — averaging 197 innings and 206 strikeouts while posting a 3.04 ERA — but a right hamstring strain cost him a month in ‘24, limiting him to 148 innings. He remains a durable innings-eater despite going 13-15 with a 4.83 ERA this year in 192 frames. Gallen comes with a qualifying offer attached.
Giolito returned from Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2024 to become a solid contributor to the Red Soxâ€s rotation in ‘25, making 26 starts and posting a 3.41 ERA. However, the underlying stats were far less kind (5.06 expected ERA) and Giolito missed the American League Wild Card Series with another (less serious) right elbow concern, so the Astros would have to be comfortable with medicals before signing him.
Kelly continues to be a sturdy mid-rotation starter as he enters his late-30s, posting a 3.47 ERA in 108 starts since the start of 2022. The right-hander went 12-9 with a 3.52 ERA for the Diamondbacks and Rangers in ’25, ranking 14th in the Majors with 184 innings. Kelly has lowered his walk rate over the past two seasons, ranking in the top 25 percent in each season. While he struck out fewer than one batter per inning in ’25, his elite chase rate (32.8%, 91st percentile) often keeps hitters off balance.
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