Can Matt Dumba Have A Bounceback Year In 2025-26?

If one thing is for certain when it comes to the Pittsburgh Penguins, it’s that their team defense has failed them in the three years since they’ve made the playoffs.

In a lot of ways, the entire backend needs to be reenvisioned and reinvented. General manager and president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas swung big in the summer of 2023 to acquire Erik Karlsson – which has come with mixed results – and with an aging Kris Letang and a whole lot of question marks in every other defensive slot, the Penguins need to both give younger guys opportunities and take chances on some blueliners in need of a change.

One of those blueliners is defenseman Matt Dumba, who the Penguins acquired from the Dallas Stars on Jul. 10. In 63 games with the Stars last season, Dumba put up one goal and 10 points and ended up a minus-5 while largely playing bottom-pair minutes. 

It wasn’t all that long ago that Dumba, 31, was playing solid hockey with the Minnesota Wild, but the last few seasons have been somewhat disastrous.

Last season, Dumba had a minus-7.3 defensive rating according to HockeyStatCards, which is – to put it quite bluntly – not ideal. In fact, it was the 11th-worst defensive rating among NHL defensemen last season. He also didn’t do much at all to contribute offensively, but that is a bit more understandable since he was playing largely bottom-pair minutes against the third and fourth lines of opposing teams.

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So, is the veteran capable of having somewhat of a bounceback season for the Penguins?

The reality is that there are a lot of elements factoring into it. Of course, the largest one is that Dumba will be playing in a vastly different setting with very different expectations, as Dallas is one of the league’s premiere cup-contending teams, while Pittsburgh is in the midst of a rebuild. Naturally, that drops some of the stakes and gives him a bit more wiggle room in terms of the pressure to perform. Perhaps playing a bit looser and with less of a chip on his shoulder would benefit Dumba.

There’s also the fact that Dumba was a large topic of discussion within the trade picture last season, something that can certainly affect player performance. Now that a trade is over and done with, he shouldn’t have to worry about that until at least around deadline time, at which point he is probably hoping to perform well enough to be dealt back to a contender in the final year of his two-year, $7 million contract.

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Also, Dumba’s deployment with the Penguins will largely depend on whether or not a Karlsson trade happens at some point, which is something that has been swirling in and out of the rumor mill. If Karlsson sticks around for the entirety of the season – and even for most of it – Dumba won’t have much room to redeem himself in a bigger role because the Penguins’ right side will be blocked with Karlsson and Letang. 

The Penguins also have an even bigger logjam on the right side, as they acquired Connor Clifton from the Buffalo Sabres on draft day this year and have younger guys like Jack St. Ivany and Harrison Brunicke in the mix during training camp, too. So it’s not just the two bigger names ahead of Dumba that he’ll have to worry about. In fact, with Karlsson in the picture, he'll likely find himself jockeying for playing time.

But even when considering his competition on the right side, his numbers – comparatively – don’t look all that terrible. For example – according to 2024-25 data from Natural Stat Trick – Dumba’s Corsi (51.44 percent), expected goals share (49.24 percent), and high-danger chances share (52.86 percent) were all higher than those of Letang’s (49.11, 46.87, and 48.29 percent, respectively). 

Granted, Dumba played against lesser competition on a better, deeper team, which certainly counts for something. But his metrics are close to pretty much every other Penguins’ defenseman but Karlsson, who has skewed-positive offensive metrics.

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Finally, there’s the coaching aspect. The Penguins have an overwhelmingly new coaching staff heading into 2025-26, and some of them – including new head coach Dan Muse and defensive coach Mike Stothers – specialize on the defensive side of the puck. 

Although it remains to be seen how much the new staff will change the team’s current system, perhaps the Penguins’ coaches will be able to get more out of Dumba this season or, at least, identify and target some problem areas of his game. The same can be said for the entirety of the Penguins’ defensive corps, which can benefit from a new set of eyes.

At the end of the day, the Dumba trade was mostly about Pittsburgh taking on his salary for one season in order to receive a 2028 second-round draft pick in return. But, if he gets the right opportunity and finds some version of his older self, he can be a decent short-term addition to their right side – and a potential deadline trade chip – this season.

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