Alex Bregman Free Agent Profile: Contract prediction, best fits, stats

Having failed to find the long-term deal he wanted last time around, Alex Bregman is back on the market for the second year in a row, this time without a qualifying offer hanging over his head. The three-time All-Star and two-time world champion opted out of a three-year, $120 million deal with Boston to get here and will take a lesser annual salary to receive the kind of rest-of-his-career contract he desires as he enters his age-32 campaign.

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MLB Free Agent Tracker 2025-26: Latest signings, top players, and biggest offseason deals

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Stay up to date with the MLB free agent market this offseason, including player signings, contract details, and team fits as the 2025-26 Hot Stove heats up.

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â–¶ Bregman in Review

Bregmanâ€s first and perhaps lone season in Boston couldnâ€t have started much better. After a first-week slump, he had a four-game span in early April in which he had two homers, five doubles and 10 RBI. He was batting .299/.385/.553 over 51 games when he suffered a strained quad on May 23. Back just before the All-Star break, his production held up initially before waning in late August. He wound up hitting .180/.273/.262 in his final 31 games, lowering his OPS from .933 to .821.

That .821 OPS was good for a 128 OPS+ just below Bregmanâ€s career mark of 132. He peaked an MVP-type performer in 2018 and â€19, finishing with a 157 OPS+ those two seasons. He suffered a big drop off immediately afterwards, but thatâ€s still left him as one of the leagueâ€s steadiest hitters these last six seasons. He has a 123 OPS+ during the span, never finishing a season below 112.

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Bregmanâ€s defense at third is similarly steadily above average. He no longer has the range to play shortstop, as he could have done for the Astros in his mid-20s had he not been shifted off the position in favor of Carlos Correa, but he should last at the position for at least a few more years before perhaps becoming a liability towards the end of the decade.

â–¶ Market Outlook

Bregman is really the one player in free agency who projects as a long-term third baseman. Maybe Bo Bichette could end up there, but he seems better suited for second base after moving off short. Most teams view Japanese imports Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto as first basemen. 34-year-old Eugenio Suárez will probably stick at third for another year or two, but heâ€s below average there these days.

So, thatâ€s nice for Bregman. It probably also doesnâ€t hurt his case that Nolan Arenado, the most prominent third baseman on the trade market, seems very clearly in decline at this point. Last winter, Arenado was put forth as a viable alternative to Bregman before ultimately declining to waive his no-trade with the Cardinals. No one will be looking at them similarly this winter, though.

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Bregmanâ€s closest recent free agency comp would seem to be Matt Chapman two years ago. Chapman, though, had to deal with the qualifying offer and overplayed his hand some in a weaker market. He signed a deal set up like Bregmanâ€s, but with a guarantee of $54 million over three years rather than Bregmanâ€s $120 million. He made $18 million in 2024 and then, before he could opt out, signed a six-year, $151 million extension to stay with the Giants.

â–¶ Best Fits

Red Sox: Boston seemed to love Bregmanâ€s clubhouse presence and would undoubtedly like to have him back for 2026. The problem is that Bregman will want at least a five-year deal, and the Red Sox arenâ€t going to think thatâ€s any better of an idea now than it was last winter, even if the exit of Rafael Devers did free up a bunch of money and end the third base controversy.

Tigers: Detroit seemed like the perfect fit for Bregman last winter, but the Tigers†longer offer — reportedly for six years — didnâ€t come with a high enough salary to land him. Thereâ€s still a pretty obvious match here for now, but itâ€d be much more difficult to imagine something coming together if Gleyber Torres accepts a $22.025 million qualifying offer.

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Mets: Swapping in Bregman for Pete Alonso would hopefully result in a significant defensive upgrade at two infield spots for the Mets, assuming that Mark Vientos and/or Brett Baty proves adept at first base. Still, it wouldnâ€t help the offense, and Bregman will probably wind up landing a bigger contract than Alonso, if only by a bit. Also, the Mets have an abundance of quality infield prospects and might be better off with a short-term solution.

Yankees: The Bombers didnâ€t really solve third base in trading for Ryan McMahon, who hit just .208/.308/.333 after arriving at the deadline. If they miss out on Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger, trying for Bregman or Bichette might be their best avenue to improve their lineup.

Cubs: The Cubs wouldnâ€t need to replace Tucker with an outfielder if they lose him; theyâ€d probably just move Seiya Suzuki back to right, and theyâ€d have a couple of very good outfield prospects in reserve. In fact, they donâ€t really have any holes at all in their lineup. Still, Matt Shawâ€s weak exit velocity numbers as a rookie were pretty discouraging, and if they were going to upgrade anywhere in free agency, third base would seem to be the best option.

Mariners: Seattle knows that contact was an issue in the postseason, and Bregmanâ€s 13.4% career strikeout rate would help out a bunch there. However, itâ€s hard to see the Mariners coming up with the $30 million or so per season that it would take to land him.

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Contract Prediction

Itâ€s pretty great for Bregman that a bunch of contenders are currently in flux at third base. Even the Blue Jays could make room for him if Bichette leaves. Or perhaps the Phillies could trade Alec Bohm to open up the hot corner, though they have their own free agents to deal with. Bregmanâ€s floor would seem to be $140 million for five years, with his annual salaries potentially decreasing some if he holds out for a longer deal.

Mets – Six years, $168 million

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