Alcaraz vs. Djokovic at the US Open: How each can win

NEW YORK — Novak Djokovic knows the world is expecting another final between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz on Sunday at the US Open.

And even he — the man with the most major titles in history and someone who spent 428 weeks atop the rankings — believes them to be the best two players in the world. He has spoken openly about how important the duo is for the sport and its future.

But despite all that, the 38-year-old Djokovic isn’t quite ready to pass the baton yet.

“Everybody is probably expecting and anticipating the finals between two of them,” Djokovic said following his quarterfinal victory over Taylor Fritz on Tuesday. “I’m going to try to, you know, mess up the plans of most of the people.”

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Djokovic will have his chance to do just that Friday as he takes on 22-year-old Alcaraz, the No. 2 seed, in an eagerly anticipated semifinal match. The winner will face either the top-ranked Sinner or No. 25 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, who also play Friday, in Sunday’s final. Alcaraz and Sinner have played against each other in the previous two Slam finals, at Wimbledon and the French Open, and have combined to win the last seven major titles.

Friday will mark the ninth career meeting between Djokovic and Alcaraz, with Djokovic holding a 5-3 edge, and with the two most recent victories. But, even with that history, Alcaraz is still favored to win the match.

For both players, there’s a lot on the line. Djokovic is hoping to keep his dream alive of winning his 25th major Slam title, which would break a tie for the most all time with Margaret Court, and Alcaraz would like to reach his third consecutive major final and potentially win the sixth of his career.

Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Friday’s semifinal.

Djokovic’s ultimate goal is to win a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title. Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Can Djokovic do it?

Djokovic has a few things going for him. First, he’s never lost to Alcaraz on hard court. Their last meeting, in the quarterfinals at the Australian Open to start the year, saw Djokovic force a comeback — after sustaining a leg injury early and dropping the opening set — behind powerful groundstrokes, strong defense and vintage movement that seemed to get better and better as the match progressed.

Alcaraz later admitted that Djokovic’s injury caused him to lose his focus slightly, and Djokovic credited his vast career experience in helping him overcome the hindrance and any distraction.

Throughout the US Open, Djokovic has been pushed to four sets in three of his five matches, including during his 6-3, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4 victory over Fritz on Tuesday. He’s had some injury scares, of varying degrees of severity, throughout the tournament and the season, and he was grateful to have the extra off day ahead of the semifinal showdown. He’s likely going to need it. Through the semifinals, Djokovic has spent almost 3½ more hours on court than his younger opponent.

“I’m going to try to take one day at a time, really take care of my body, try to relax and recover,” Djokovic said in the early morning hours on Wednesday. “The next couple of days is really key for me to really get my body in shape and ready to battle five sets if it’s needed.

“I just would really love that, would love to be fit enough to play — and to play potentially five sets with Carlos. I know that my best tennis is going to be required, but I’d rise to the occasion.”

He admitted he wasn’t feeling “very fresh at the moment” in his news conference after the quarterfinals but was hopeful. He also was confident in his ability to “grind,” as he had done against Fritz, and find an extra gear at the most crucial moments. “You just have to play with your heart and fight,” he said. “That’s what really gave me the win in the end.”

Although not quite in his prime form, Djokovic has shown himself to be a formidable foe for Father Time throughout his run in New York. He has moved around the court with ease and has been buoyed by his strong serving throughout. He’s been victorious in 92% of his service games and had 57 aces. Not to mention, he’s also won an impressive 33% of his return games.

“I think he always serves well, like, on his first serves,” Fritz said on Tuesday night. “He hits his spots well. He gets a good amount of free points and aces … I think what’s made it tough in the past is how much variance there is in his second serve.”

Djokovic’s third-round opponent, Cameron Norrie, who he had played six times previously, was equally effusive in his praise.

“He served incredibly well, maybe the best he’s ever served against me,” Norrie said. “I was really impressed with that.”

Alcaraz was the only man to reach the quarterfinals of the US Open without dropping a set. John G Mabanglo/EPA/Shutterstock

OK, but Alcaraz is still the favorite to win the match, right?

Yes. There has been no one more dominant throughout the fortnight than Alcaraz. Arriving in New York having just won the title in Cincinnati, he was the only man to reach the quarterfinals without dropping a set and he’s faced just one tiebreak in his five matches. He’s been virtually unstoppable, even against high quality opponents.

Jiri Lehecka, the tournament’s No. 20 seed who Alcaraz defeated in the quarterfinals in under two hours, said Alcaraz — or the “Grand Slam version of Carlos” — simply did everything better when it mattered most.

“If you want to beat him, you need to win at least a few of the big points, and he won all of them,” Lehecka said on Tuesday. “Even when I played a really good rally, even when I tried to put him under pressure, go to the net, change the rhythm, do something, he was there, and he had an answer for everything I tried.”

And if all that weren’t enough, Alcaraz has won an astounding 99% of his service games — all but one — in New York. He told reporters his serve had been his primary focus for improvement in the past year and credited that, and his consistency with it, for his recent results.

“Tennis, it’s really hard sometimes, because one day you can serve really, really well, and the next match you can feel completely different and really bad,” he said after defeating Lehecka. “So I’m trying to maintain the focus on the serve, just trying to do everything the same and getting the good feeling.”

Alcaraz said he knew Djokovic was “hungry” and had an “ambition for more” when thinking ahead to their (then potential) clash, but said he had his own motivation: revenge. “Obviously,” he said Tuesday, while alluding to their previous matches.

So, who will win this match?

One thing is for certain: Both players will be bringing their best level and an unwavering desire to advance to Sunday’s final.

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Djokovic has beaten Alcaraz on this surface at a Grand Slam this season, so he knows exactly what he needs to do in order to get it done again. Most importantly, he believes he can do it. He also is acutely aware of the ticking clock on his career, and that he only has limited chances remaining to achieve his dream for 25.

But whether or not that will be motivating or debilitating in a high-pressure situation remains to be seen after a string of semifinal exits. Djokovic also knows that the longer the match goes, the more it favors the younger, and fresher, Alcaraz, so he will need to come out strong from the first point.

Alcaraz doesn’t have any of that same weight on his shoulders. But what he does have is confidence, and a game that is clicking on all cylinders. He hasn’t faced much adversity throughout his run, but if he can handle those moments, if and when they arise, and remain locked in, it certainly feels like this is his match to win.

Prediction: Alcaraz in four sets.