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DENVER, CO – AUGUST 2: Starting pitcher Paul Skenes #30 of the Pittsburgh Pirates smiles as he walks off the field in the fourth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on August 2, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
Editor’s Note: The story has been updated to correct who the Pirates third 5+ WAR player was in 2015. We apologize for the error.
Of all MLB fan bases, Pirates supporters are understandably the most allergic to hope. Any optimism they once had was wrung out of them long ago.
Itâ€s understandable. Since Barry Bonds left in free agency after the 1992 season, the team has had just four winning seasons in 33 years. Pittsburgh has a .449 winning percentage since Bonds left and three playoff wins in 33 years.
For Pirates fans, hope is just a precursor to heartache.
So what follows comes with some trepidation. But if Paul Skenes stays healthy and isnâ€t traded away, and if Konnor Griffin becomes the player Baseball America—and the rest of the baseball industry—believes he will be, itâ€s time for Pirates fans to start to dream again.
If Griffin can become a star to pair with Skenes, it will be truly difficult for the Pirates to remain a cellar dweller. Recent history shows itâ€s quite hard to be a truly bad team with two big league stars.
Thatâ€s without considering the Pirates†other pieces. Bubba Chandler is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball and expected to be part of the Pirates†2026 rotation. Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft and Hunter Barco are other young intriguing arms who reached the majors, while younger prospects like Seth Hernandez and Edward Florentino are rising behind them.
Even if they don’t all pan out, as long as Skenes continues his dominance and Griffin emerges as a star, the Pirates are positioned to soon have one of their best teams in decades.
Letâ€s start with something basic but instructive: Itâ€s hard to be a truly bad team with two or more exceptional players. Using 5+ WAR as the bar for stardom, Skenes produced 6.5 fWAR in 2025. Among shortstops, Bobby Witt Jr., Geraldo Perdomo, Francisco Lindor and Jeremy Peña all topped 5+ WAR in 2025.
It may seem bold to project Griffin to that level, but history suggests itâ€s realistic.
Of Baseball America No. 1 prospects from 2010 to 2023 (players with enough time to establish themselves in the majors), nine of 12 have logged 5+ WAR seasons. The only exceptions are Wander Franco (4.8 fWAR at age 22 before legal issues), Jurickson Profar (4.3) and Andrew Benintendi (4.4). Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ronald Acuña, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, Byron Buxton, Bryce Harper and Jason Heyward all reached that level.
The same could be said for the gameâ€s No. 2 prospects. Only three—Luis Robert, Dylan Bundy and Matt Moore—have yet to reach 5+ WAR in a season. That group includes Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Shohei Ohtani, Xander Bogaerts, Mike Trout and Stephen Strasburg.
When teams have two stars producing at that level, they almost always win. Of the 114 teams with two 5+ WAR players in the past 15 seasons:
- Only 14% finished below .500
- 59% won 90+ games
- 15% won 100+ games
- 62% reached the postseason
On average, those teams won 90 games. And of the 16 teams with losing records, 10 made the playoffs the year before or afterwards.
Even with those two-star teams with losing records, it was often either a sign of good things to come or the last gasp of a previously successful team. The 2014 Cubs won 73 games, but that team went to the playoffs the next four seasons and won the World Series in 2016. The 72-win 2019 White Sox made the playoffs in 2020 and 2021. The 2016 Rockies won 75 games, but the 2017 and 2018 Rockies teams made the playoffs.
The Pirates have had two 5+ fWAR players in the same season only three times in the past 15 full seasons (the shortened 60-game 2020 season is omitted from this study). They did so in 2013 (Andrew McCutchen and Russell Martin), 2014 (McCutchen and Martin) and 2015 (McCutchen, Francisco Cervelli and Gerrit Cole).
Not coincidentally, those were Pittsburghâ€s three best seasons since Bonds†departure. The Pirates won 94 games in 2013, 88 in 2014 and 98 in 2015.
That 98-win team matched the 1991 NLCS team and the 1979 “We Are Family†world champions for the franchise’s best record since 1972. If the Pirates had any semblance of luck, that 2015 season would have been one for the ages.
But this is yet another reason why Pirates fans are allergic to hope. Their 98-win season happened to be in a season where three NL Central teams won 97 or more games. The 100-win Cardinals took the division title, while the Pirates were bounced by the 97-win Cubs in the one-game wild card.
From 2006 to now, 98 wins would have claimed the NL Central in every season but 2015 and 2016. Pittsburghâ€s best team in decades picked the worst possible moment to peak.
That 2015 club is another example that it’s impossible to be bad with three productive stars. Since 2010, none of the 41 teams with three or more 5+ WAR players finished with a losing record. Those teams averaged 95 wins and 33 of them (80%) made the playoffs.
So for the rare optimistic Pirates fan, here’s the blueprint for dreaming. It’s realistic that Griffin has 5+ WAR seasons in his future. If Skenes remains healthy, he’s already there. And if another standout—whether Chandler, Florentino or a surprise—joins them, Pittsburgh could actually become a power.
Syncing those seasons up may be the toughest challenge. A Skenes injury, or a slower development path for Griffin could make this a “what if†rather than a team that turns it around. The Angels are a cautionary tale. They had Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani together for years, yet rarely won.
Trout has more 5+ WAR seasons since 2010 (nine) than any other player, but has done it just once since 2020. Ohtaniâ€s first season as a star was in 2021. Just at the point where Ohtani was becoming one of the gameâ€s greats, Trout was starting to struggle to stay healthy. That 2022 Angels team won 73 games. Itâ€s one of the worst performances by a team with two productive stars in the past 15 years.
There are plenty of reasons and past history to keep Pirates fans from getting too hopeful about the future. But the reality is that a combination of Griffin, Skenes and other young promising players should fuel a turnaround in upcoming years.
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