OTTAWA — For Ottawa Senators fans, déjà vu comes in autumn. When the leaves are falling, so are the Senators down in the standings.
Itâ€s only been five games with a 2-3-0 record: not terrible, but not good either. A gutsy late comeback win against the Seattle Kraken on Thursday complicated a “sky is falling†vibe in Sensland while allowing for a much-needed ray of hope.
Compounding a bad start on the scoreboard for Ottawa with losing Brady Tkachuk for six to eight weeks after thumb surgery is a massive blow to a Senators team that wanted to take the next step.
With a five-game sample to work with, let’s take a look at what’s concerning about the Senators’ slow start and whatâ€s not.
Bleak outlook with Tkachuk out long-term
If you take any team’s best player out of the lineup for a long time, the team will be significantly worse. Thatâ€s the case with Tkachuk and the Senators. Tkachuk is Ottawaâ€s best play driver, top scorer, and emotional leader.
There will be a clear goal for the Senators without their captain.
“We have to have that belief in our identity that the team is not one player,†said Lars Eller.
Tkachuk’s absence for now may be mitigated by Shane Pinto, who is on an absolute heater, leading the league in goals with six. Ottawa needs depth scoring in the absence of their captain, and when your third line centre is on pace for 98 goals that helps.
Even if Pinto scores 30, thatâ€s a big boost for a team that struggles to score with or without Tkachuk.
Coach Travis Green said after Thursdayâ€s game that he’s leaving Pinto alone because heâ€s so hot with his scoring touch. Hopefully, Green will have that chance with others soon, including Drake Batherson, Fabian Zetterlund and Dylan Cozens. Regardless, Ottawa will struggle to conjure up all of Tkachukâ€s firepower.
Goals against down a man count the same as goals allowed at even strength. If you canâ€t kill penalties in the NHL, your route to winning games and making the playoffs will be terminated. That’s happening in Ottawa: they’ve given up nine goals while shorthanded on 20 attempts.
The only time Ottawa’s penalty kill has looked good was against Nashville, going six for six while shorthanded.
“We saw a version of what we want to be, as far as being aggressive,†said Green about his shorthanded unit.
The hot topic in Sens land has been the team’s use of a diamond penalty kill formation. It was unsuccessful last season, producing the 19th-best kill — and now is second-last at a truly awful 55 per cent in the first five games.
Last season, the Senators gave up the seventh most high-danger chances on their penalty kill; so far this season, they rank eighth in high-danger chances allowed per 60 according to Natural Stat Trick.
“Thereâ€s been a few breakdowns. There’s also a few lucky goals that kind of found their way,†said Green about the penalty kill.
You make your own luck. Sometimes youâ€re unlucky because youâ€re bad.
The problem with the diamond formation is that players are planted in a zone on the ice: they are mostly playing the zone, not the man. Sportsnet.ca spoke to a former NHLer in the off-season who explained that “you donâ€t want to think, just play†when youâ€re on the penalty kill. A byproduct of the zonal marking has been that the Sens often cede possession to the best players in the world: the goal is to limit them to the outside, but give a player like Connor McDavid time and he’ll burn you. Match that with the half-second it takes for a Senator to make a read in the zone coverage. That happened on Thursday when Chandler Stephenson walked right into the slot untouched to give the Kraken a 3-2 lead in the third.
If itâ€s broken, fix it.
Chabot-Jensen are struggling
Thomas Chabot and Nick Jensen were a revelation to begin last season, with stellar plus-minus and analytics up until Jensen hurt his hip in November. For the rest of the 2024-25 season, the duo was fine but not elite.
After off-season hip surgery, Jensen hasnâ€t looked the same, and the pairing has struggled. Theyâ€ve been outscored five to two, while having a putrid 38 per cent expected goals share. Itâ€s still early, but itâ€s worrisome that they donâ€t have the spark so far.
Senators need saves, but improvement is showing
It starts with Linus Ullmark, who allowed 10 goals on 52 shots in his first two games. But in his last two starts, he has rebounded, stopping 52 of his last 57. Ullmarkâ€s track record in Ottawa has been great highs and some lows. The middle ground still looks to be a good-to-great starting goaltender.
The Senators currently have a team save percentage of .818, which is surely not what they will finish with. It’s only five games, too. The good news is that Ullmark was exceptional against Seattle, making stellar save after stellar save to give his team a chance for a miraculous comeback. There are concerns after Ullmark admitted to less-than-ideal off-season training preparations, but heâ€s trending in the right direction despite an .862 save percentage so far.
Meanwhile, there is real cause for concern with Leevi Merilainen, who was dreadful in his first start against Buffalo on Wednesday, allowing seven goals on 30 shots. Ottawa bet big on the 23-year-old with just 14 games of experience heading into the season. Nevertheless, Merilainen has a great AHL track record and wonâ€t allow seven goals a game every start.
Give it time. The fact that the Senators are 2-3-0 with that poor a save percentage is a testament to the team.
One clear concern is that Ottawa has allowed the first goal in each of its first five games.
Donâ€t fret, because here comes some optimism after all that gloom.
Improved play at five-on-five
Last season, Ottawaâ€s Achilles heel wasnâ€t goaltending or even the penalty kill but the severe lack of goals at five-on-five, where the team finished second last. This season, Ottawa has been middle of the pack, averaging the 18th most five-on-five goals per game early on. But when you look under the hood, there is more reason to believe.
The Senators sit eighth in expected goals share at 60 per cent at five-on-five, while 11th in expected goals for per game at five-on-five. Against Buffalo and Tampa Bay, Ottawa didnâ€t allow a shot on goal at five-on-five for over 20 minutes. Impressive stuff.
“Our five-on-five game is close (to where we want it to be)â€, said Green.
Plus, Ottawa is tilting the ice with Jake Sanderson and Jordan Spence on the first and third defensive pairings, respectively, with over 58 per cent for Sanderson and 67 per cent for Spence in terms of expected-goals share.
If all the strong five-on-five play persists over a long season, the Senators will be in a great position to start finding ways to win.
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They are poised to score more
The Senators have been unlucky, with the worst PDO at .916 in the NHL. Itâ€s a statistic that combines a teamâ€s save percentage and shooting percentage, used to suggest if a team is lucky or not.
In Ottawaâ€s case, they have created a lot of shots but havenâ€t scored with a low shooting percentage, while they’ve allowed many goals on few shots. In five games, you can sometimes lose three because of bad luck mixed with some bad goaltending. Over 82 games, you are likely to return to the mean.
In the NHL, with so much parity, the little details make the difference between fortune to misfortune. Ottawa could be on track for a year from hell, but more likely, they will prove to be a better team than they’ve shown so far.
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