OTTAWA — In the first two games of the 2025-26 season, the Ottawa Senators have shown how far theyâ€ve come and how far they need to go.
Against Tampa Bay on Thursday, they showed their ability to be resilient, breaking out to dominate and score at five-on-five. But against Florida — the best team in the world for two seasons — they werenâ€t even close in a 6-2 defeat.
A friendly reminder to worried Senators fans: itâ€s a long season, and youâ€re never as good or as bad as one result. Hereâ€s what weâ€ve learned about the Ottawa Senators through two games.
The first two games of Linus Ullmark’s season have been shaky, to say the least. Evan Rodrigues’ goal Saturday was emblematic: the puck bounced off Ullmark’s glove, turning what could have been a huge save into a back-breaking goal.
“I (messed) that up,†Ullmark said. Letâ€s be clear: itâ€s not all on the 32-year-old. But heâ€s allowed 10 goals on 52 shots this season for an .808 save percentage, with a league worst minus-4.7 goals allowed above expected, according to MoneyPuck.com. Thatâ€s not getting Ottawa to the playoffs.
“Mind of a goldfish,†Ullmark said about moving on.
Ullmark was brought in to stop those deflating goals that sometimes felt inevitable in Ottawa for a half decade. Last season, he accomplished that feat for the most part with a .910 save percentage.
“There’s a couple instances where a save for me would probably have kept the game closer,†Ullmark said.
Itâ€s still early — thereâ€s 80 more games and a potential playoff run for Ullmark to change the script. But if his poor play continues, Ottawaâ€s old crease demons will sprout back and we may have a goalie controversy yet again.
One thing weâ€ve learned and can say with almost 100 per cent certainty is that Shane Pinto is going to get PAIDthis summer.The pending restricted free agent has shown he’s able to match up against the elite forwards in the NHL, all while scoring 20-plus goals.
In the first two games of the season, Pinto has four goals and an assist while defending the toughest matchups. He is leading the team with a 71 per cent expected goals share at five-on-five while Ottawa has outscored opponents 4-1.
“Room to grow, heâ€s taken steps every year in the league,†said head coach Travis Green. “As far as matchups, heâ€s really learned that side of the game. There is room to grow. Can he be a consistent 25-goal scorer?â€
Maybe even a 30-goal scorer, coach.
Pinto has also been rewarded with power-play time this season, which should increase his scoring punch.
“As the years go on, you start to realize that there are plays to be made,†said Pinto. “You have a lot of good players around you, and there might be a little bit more time than you think.â€
Nick Cousins can apparently see the future, repeatedly shouting “Ka-ching!†as Pinto spoke to reporters after the Tampa game.
The fascinating question is what Pintoâ€s next contract will look like.
We scoured the league for recent deals for young (when they signed), good-to-elite two-way centres and here are some comparables: Philip Danault (six years x $5.5 million), Mason McTavish (6x$7M), Ryan McLeod (4x$5M), Anton Lundell (6x$5M), Anthony Cirelli (8x$6.25M).
- 32 Thoughts: The Podcast
Hockey fans already know the name, but this is not the blog. From Sportsnet, 32 Thoughts: The Podcast with NHL Insider Elliotte Friedman and Kyle Bukauskas is a weekly deep dive into the biggest news and interviews from the hockey world.
Latest episode
Many of these deals were signed in a flat cap world, and the dynamic of negotiations may change drastically with the salary cap potentially rising up to $104 million next season.
So far this season, Pinto is effectively Ottawaâ€s second-line centre, playing alongside Ridly Greig and Claude Giroux while taking on the toughest defensive assignments. He will likely command somewhere in between second-line centre and third-liner money.
Ottawa would be smart to lock up Pinto for as long as it can. With its core signed on team-friendly deals, the reward should be keeping Pinto with $30 million in cap space next year.
Ottawaâ€s penalty kill is a problem
The Senators†Achilles heel last season was their 19th-ranked penalty kill, which was backed up by terrible analytics, too. Ottawa finished third-last in expected goals against per 60 while short-handed at five-on-four, according to MoneyPuck.com.
The woes have bled into this season. Through two games, Ottawa’s killed just three of eight for a 37.5 per cent clip. Weâ€ve run the math and itâ€s awful, but itâ€s only two games.
The crux of the issue has been Ottawaâ€s diamond formation. The philosophy behind it is to force the opponent to the outside and keep the slot clear. However, Sportsnet’s Kevin Bieksa made an excellent point on the Hockey Night in Canada broadcast Saturday, saying players now are too good at shooting to sit back and give them time and space. They will simply score.
“Itâ€s a work in progress, itâ€s got to be better,†Green said after a 2-for-5 effort against the Panthers.
Itâ€s Jordan Spence time
Ottawaâ€s third pairing of Nikolas Matinpalo and Donovan Sebrango has played a combined 50 NHL games, while Jordan Spence — who’s been a healthy scratch both games — has 61 points in 160 games.
Matinpalo and Sebrango have been caved in and outshot 11-5 with a 40.54 expect goals percentage, according to Natural Stat Trick. Meanwhile, Spence had great analytics on a third pair in Los Angeles while providing elite zone exits — an issue Ottawa and its third pairing had specifically against Florida.
Spence has more skill and experience than Sebrango and Matinpalo, and Ottawa needs a jolt. Itâ€s time for him to play.
Weâ€ve been more on the negative side, so hereâ€s a positive: Ottawaâ€s five-on-five play looks better so far after being a huge question coming into the season for a team that finished 31st in five-on-five goals last season.
Ottawa absolutely dominated a good Tampa Bay team at five-on-five. The Senators were outplayed by Florida, but their penalty kill hurt them as much as five-on-five.
In total, the Senators outscored opponents 5-4 at five-on-five with an expected goals rate of 59.92 per cent in the first two games. Last season, Ottawa had a 49 per cent expected goals share while averaging 1.69 five-on-five goals per game.
It may be early, but against two very good teams, the Senators held their own at five-on-five, and it’s a reason to be optimistic as they play lesser teams this week in Nashville, Buffalo and Seattle.
Discover more from 6up.net
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.