Neil PaineOct 2, 2025, 08:00 AM ET
- Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.
Parity has emerged as a defining feature of this NBA era.
With the Oklahoma City Thunder’s breakthrough in June, the league has crowned seven different champions in as many years — a streak unmatched in NBA history. Of those seven, the Thunder’s young core has arguably the best chance to parlay the victory into a dynastic run, but that doesn’t mean other teams haven’t been working all summer to make sure it was a one-off.
While fewer blockbuster and major fireworks meant this offseason was quieter than most, plenty of teams reshaped their rosters in meaningful ways.
The Houston Rockets splurged on Kevin Durant in a swap with the Phoenix Suns, who slotted in Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks via the same deal. The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks lost key veterans and shuffled in new talent. The Orlando Magic bet on Desmond Bane, part of their rise to No. 7 in title odds at ESPN BET. The Los Angeles Clippers made some interesting moves. And the Portland Trail Blazers made headlines by reacquiring Damian Lillard, though fans will have to wait a season for his return, with an injury shelving him until 2026-27.
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To size up all these wheelings and dealings, we projected how a player’s addition (or absence) could shift a team’s standings by setting a baseline of the player’s expected performance using their established level of Estimated RAPTOR Wins Above Replacement (WAR), then identifying the five teams that gained — and the five teams that lost — the most roster value.
We did not factor in the value of literal contracts and salaries, but we did adjust for rookies who could make an immediate impact — hello, Cooper Flagg — and for newcomers with injuries, such as Lillard. We also considered pending free agents as departures. And finally, we noted how much value was lost to presumed season-ending injuries for players like Tyrese Haliburton, though did not factor that into the calculations for teams that made either list.
So which teams bolstered their chances to contend? Which lost big? And which could regret a quiet offseason? Let’s walk through the biggest talent transfers of the past few months — and how they could shape the season ahead.
Jump to a team:
All | BOS | BKN | CHA
CLE | DAL | HOU | LAC
MIL | MIN | PHX
Teams that gained the most value
WAR added: +13.8 | WAR lost: -5.7 (+8.1)
Top additions: G Chris Paul (4.7), C Brook Lopez (3.5), G Bradley Beal (2.9), F John Collins (2.5)
Top losses: G Norman Powell (4.8), G Ben Simmons (0.7), G Amir Coffey (0.3)
The Clippers said goodbye to Powell, who was coming off the best season of his career (6.3 WAR), via a three-team swap in July. But they otherwise didn’t lose much talent from a core that was already pretty good. (Simmons is no longer really an impact departure, sadly.)
They also added a quartet of players with a recent track record of producing at least 2.5 wins per season: the homecoming king CP3 — who often improves his teams — a steady vet with Lopez, and a couple of high-upside reclamation projects in Beal and Collins.
WAR added: +12.6 | WAR lost: -7.5 (+5.1)
Top additions: F-G Kevin Durant (7.1), F Dorian Finney-Smith (2.2), G Josh Okogie (1.7), C Clint Capela (1.5)
Top losses: G Jalen Green (3.0), F Dillon Brooks (2.7), F Cam Whitmore (1.1), C Jock Landale (0.6)
Season-ending injury loss: -6.3 (Fred VanVleet)
The Rockets landed the best player to change teams this offseason in Durant, who — even at age 36 with a diminished supporting cast in Phoenix — averaged 26.6 points last season with his trademark efficiency. They will need him to keep producing in the wake of departures that helped bring KD to Houston (Green and Brooks), and with the recent torn ACL suffered by VanVleet, who was supposed to play a big role in the Rockets’ contention.
Kevin Durant was traded to the Houston Rockets this past offseason and is eligible to sign a two-year extension after the 2025-26 season with the Rockets. (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images)
WAR added: +6.3 | WAR lost: -2.5 (+3.8)
Top additions: F Cooper Flagg (3.6), G D’Angelo Russell (2.8)
Top losses: G Spencer Dinwiddie (1.7), C Kai Jones (0.7)
There is a lot more underlying Dallas’ 2024-25 numbers than the typical team. For one, the Mavericks’ No. 19 net rating from last season included multiple distinct eras’ worth of team construction, from before the infamous Luka DonÄić trade to the short-lived Kyrie Irving-Anthony Davis era that followed, including a stretch run spent with both stars on the shelf. Now Davis is back and Irving is expected to return at some point during this season, and their net established WAR (+3.8) is boosted by the assumed value of Flagg (+3.6), the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft.
The Mavs also added Russell, who was more serviceable in 2023-24 than 2024-25. And they didn’t lose much talent — Dinwiddie had a negative RAPTOR for three straight seasons — so it should be far from a dull season in Dallas.
WAR added: +10.0 | WAR lost: -7.0 (+3.0)
Top additions: F Michael Porter Jr. (5.6), F Haywood Highsmith (1.7), G-F Terance Mann (1.5), G Egor Demin (0.6)
Top losses: F Cameron Johnson (3.5), G D’Angelo Russell (2.8)
The Nets were bad last season, winning just 26 games — their fewest since 2016-17 — and they will likely be bad again. However, they did acquire the more productive recent player (plus an unprotected first-round pick) in the trade that shipped Johnson to Denver in July. It was a cap-driven move for the Nuggets, but the Nets got a player in Porter who is younger and produced nearly twice as many WAR (11.7 vs. 6.3) over the past two seasons, helping to drive their net WAR (+3.0) here.
WAR added: +7.7 | WAR lost: -5.7 (+2.0)
Top additions: G Collin Sexton (3.3), PG Spencer Dinwiddie (1.7), G-F Kon Knueppel (1.0), C-F Mason Plumlee (0.7), G Pat Connaughton (0.6)
Top losses: C Mark Williams (1.8), G Josh Okogie (1.7), C Jusuf Nurkić (1.4), G Seth Curry (0.5)
At least you can’t accuse the Hornets of trying to run back the same group and expecting different results. Aside from the core of Miles Bridges, LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, general manager Jeff Peterson has turned over much of the rest of a roster that won just 19 games a year ago, adding Sexton from Utah and Dinwiddie from Dallas — plus drafting Knueppel out of Duke at fourth overall.
Granting that it’s easier to improve a bad team than a good one, and that — like the Nets — the Hornets still most likely won’t be good in 2025-26, they can aim to at least be better than they were.
Who’s not here (and why)
The Orlando Magic are a buzzy team heading into this season, rising to seventh in the preseason NBA title odds, so why do they rank a mere 17th in the net WAR rankings despite adding Bane (along with ex-Suns G Tyus Jones)? They also had to give up Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Cole Anthony — who combined for 4.5 WAR in Orlando last year — to get Bane, who was worth 6.3 WAR, reducing some of the net value of the deal in pure basketball terms.
Similarly, the Memphis Grizzlies and Atlanta Hawks made big moves to add talent — even raiding each other’s rosters in some cases — with KCP and Ty Jerome joining the Grizz, and Porziņģis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard going to the Hawks. But both teams also lost nearly as much, as Bane and Kennard left Memphis and Caris LeVert and Capela departed Atlanta. That hurts both teams’ net talent ranking.
And finally, the Portland Trail Blazers would be higher by virtue of adding Lillard to go with Jrue Holiday, but Dame’s timeline for a Blazers return is delayed by his torn Achilles.
Teams that lost the most value
WAR added: +4.9 | WAR lost: -16.5 (-11.6)
Top additions: G Anfernee Simons (2.6), F Chris Boucher (1.6), F Josh Minott (0.5)
Top losses: C Kristaps Porziņģis (4.9), G Jrue Holiday (4.5), C Luke Kornet (3.5), C Al Horford (3.2)
Season-ending injury loss: 10.7 (Jayson Tatum)
After winning the 2024 NBA championship and spending most of last season on the very short list of title front-runners, it’s shaping up to be a very different year in Boston. For one, regular-season WAR leader Tatum suffered a torn Achilles in May — and while he isn’t ruling out a return from what was originally deemed a season-erasing injury, he would likely miss the majority of the regular season even if he did manage to come back early.
Add in the fact that Boston said goodbye to many of the core contributors from its title run — Porziņģis, Holiday and Horford — plus highly effective role player Kornet, who signed with the Spurs in July, and the Celtics are looking at a very diminished group leading the way in 2025-26.
WAR added: +9.3 | WAR lost: -16.4 (-7.1)
Top additions: G Jalen Green (3.0), F-G Dillon Brooks (2.7), C Mark Williams (1.8), G Jared Butler (0.8), C Khaman Maluach (0.5)
Top losses: F Kevin Durant (7.1), G Bradley Beal (2.9), G Tyus Jones (2.7), F Cody Martin (1.4), G Monte Morris (0.9), C Mason Plumlee (0.7), F Bol Bol (0.5)
This type of offseason was necessary for Phoenix to press the reset button and move on from the failed Big Three experiment with Durant, Beal and Devin Booker, which yielded zero total playoff wins before being blown up. But the Suns still saw an exodus of talent, headlined by — but not limited to — KD’s move to Houston. They got back some interesting players in that record-breaking seven-team trade, including Green and Brooks, who combined for 7.3 WAR last season. But there is no doubt that the post-Durant transition in Phoenix will be painful.
play
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Suns owner Mat Ishbia: I didn’t do enough when KD was here
Phoenix Suns owner Mat Ishbia reflects on what went wrong during Kevin Durant’s and Bradley Beal’s time on the team.
WAR added: +5.5 | WAR lost: -11.1 (-5.6)
Top additions: C-F Myles Turner (2.9), G Gary Harris (1.2), G Cole Anthony (1.2)
Top losses:G Damian Lillard (7.0), C Brook Lopez (3.5), G Pat Connaughton (0.6)
The Bucks land here with the dissolution of the Lillard-Giannis Antetokounmpo alliance after an underwhelming two-year run, during which they won only three playoff games across a pair of first-round exits, with both stars struggling to stay healthy at different times. But say what you will, Lillard was productive in both of his regular seasons in Milwaukee, amassing 13.7 total WAR across 2023-24 and 2024-25. Now the Bucks will move forward with Turner, to whom they signed a four-year, $107 million contract in the hopes he replicates his solid averages of 17 points and 7 boards from the past three seasons alongside Giannis in a new partnership.
WAR added: +2.6 | WAR lost: -8.0 (-5.4)
Top additions: F-C Larry Nance Jr. (1.4), G Lonzo Ball (1.2)
Top losses: G Ty Jerome (4.6), G Isaac Okoro (2.5), G Javonte Green (0.9)
A year after leaping from 48 wins to a near-franchise record 64, the Cavs are once again among the title favorites. But like many contenders in the NBA’s recent salary cap era, they had to bid farewell to some of their best role players — namely Jerome, who was ridiculously effective (+5.3 RAPTOR) in 20 minutes per game last season, as well as Okoro, who provided them a steady dose of 3-and-D efficiency for years before being dealt to the Bulls for Ball in July.
If Ball ever stayed healthy enough to play a full season, he could single-handedly erase the Cavs’ offseason deficit, which makes him a fascinating acquisition for a team with its eye on a championship. But for now, Cleveland is down a lot of proven talent from a year ago.
Lonzo Ball was traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers from the Chicago Bulls last June for Isaac Okoro. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
WAR added:+0.4 | WAR lost: -3.7 (-3.3)
Top additions:C Joan Beringer (0.3)
Top losses: G Nickeil Alexander-Walker (3.0), F Josh Minott (0.5)
The T-Wolves went into the summer with a lot of uncertainty about which supporting players would be coming back, and in that sense, they arguably did the best they could (without going into the second apron) by re-signing Julius Randle and Naz Reid. But it did come at the cost of losing Alexander-Walker, who had 7.1 total WAR — and with whom the team was an average of 4.0 net points per 100 possessions on the court versus off — over the past two seasons. It’s hardly an earth-shattering loss, but it speaks to the depth that can be a casualty of the luxury tax in the current NBA.
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Ranking NBA teams by net WAR added or lost this offseason
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