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With the 2025 MLB regular season complete, we have a clearer picture of the lottery odds for the 2026 draft.
Since 2023, the MLB Draft has been determined by a lottery that includes each of the 18 teams that didnâ€t make the postseason. Any eligible non-posteason teams have a chance to get the first overall pick, or one of the top six picks determined by the draft lottery.
The White Sox are solely positioned for the best odds to get the No. 1 overall pick.
Below are each of the 18 non-postseason teams with their draft lottery odds.
2026 MLB Draft Lottery Odds
PickTeamRecordWin%Original OddsFinal Odds*1White Sox60-102.37016.5%27.73%2Twins70-92.43213.2%22.18%3Pirates71-91.43810.0%16.81%4Orioles75-87.4635.5%9.24%5Athletics76-86.4693.9%6.55%6Braves76-86.4692.7%4.54%7Rays77-85.4751.80%3.03%8Cardinals78-84.4811.4%2.35%9Marlins79-83.4881.1%1.85%10Rockies43-119.26516.5%—11Nationals66-96.40716.5%—12Angels72-90.4447.5%—13D-backs80-82.4940.9%1.51%14Rangers81-81.5000.8%1.34%15Giants81-81.5000.6%1.01%16Royals82-80.5060.5%0.84%17Mets83-79.5120.4%0.67%18Astros87-75.5370.2%0.34%
*We are currently presenting Baseball America’s final odds calculations, but will update with final odds from MLB when we confirm them.
Why Are The Rockies, Nationals & Angels Out Of The Draft Lottery?
In a typical year, the bottom three teams would have an equal shot to win the first overall pick. However, Both the Rockies and Nationals are ineligible for the lottery this year—leaving the White Sox with best overall odds of any team.
The new system is a tough blow in particular for the Rockies, who finished with the worst overall record in baseball and would have been a lock for the top overall pick in the upcoming draft under the old system. Now, because they picked in the lottery in 2023 and 2024 theyâ€ll have to settle for just the 10th overall pick.
The Rockies are ineligible as a revenue payee that has picked in the lottery in each of the past two drafts, while the Nationals are ineligible as a revenue payor that picked in the lottery last year.
Under the current draft lottery rules, teams that receive revenue sharing (IE the Rockies) canâ€t pick in the lottery in three consecutive years, while teams that pay into revenue sharing (IE the Nationals) canâ€t pick in the lottery in consecutive years.
The Angels are the third ineligible team for the lottery this year. They are a revenue payor like the Nationals and picked in the lottery last year.
Teams ineligible from receiving a lottery pick can pick no sooner than 10th overall.
The remaining 15 eligible teams will have a chance for a lottery pick. After the first six selections are determined the rest of the order for non-postseason teams is determined by reverse order of regular season winning percentage. Ties are determined by winning percentage of the prior season.
How Is The Draft Order For Postseason Teams Determined?
Teams who make the postseason have their draft order determined by a combination of postseason finish, regular season standings and revenue sharing status as follows:
- Clubs that lose in the Wild Card Series will select before clubs that lose in the Division Series, and clubs that lose in the Division Series will select before clubs that lose in the League Championship Series, and so on. Each year the team that wins the World Series will receive the last pick of the first round, as well as all subsequent rounds.
- Within each group of postseason rounds, draft order will be determined first by revenue sharing status (payee clubs will pick before non-payee clubs) and then in reverse order of regular season winning percentage.
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