David SchoenfieldSep 28, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
We made it to the final day of the 2025 MLB regular season.
It has been one wild, fun ride, especially if you’re a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers or Seattle Mariners or Cleveland Guardians — less so, especially recently, if you’re a fan of the Detroit Tigers or New York Mets.
What’s at stake Sunday? From teams playing out the string to those who are battling for a chance to play October baseball, here are the biggest storylines to follow on the final day.
Note: This has been updated with where things stand heading into Sunday’s games.
Battle for the AL Central: Miracle comeback or all-time collapse?
The American League Central was over … except it wasn’t. The Detroit Tigers finally snapped their eight-game losing streak with a 4-2 win over the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday, but, the Guardians have still won 17 of their last 21 games while the Tigers have lost 11 of 14. The teams were tied for the division lead heading into the final weekend, which remains the case after both lost on Friday then won Saturday, but Cleveland holds the tiebreaker having won the season series — putting the Guardians on the verge of the biggest September comeback in MLB history to win a pennant or division (currently 8.5 games when the 1964 Cardinals chased down the Phillies). Both teams are in as at least a wild card after they both clinched (and eliminated the Houston Astros) on Saturday.
Check out this timeline of the AL Central standings and odds for the Tigers and Guardians to win the division, via FanGraphs:
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July 8:Cleveland 15.5 games back of Detroit (Tigers: 98.8%, Guardians: 0.1%)
Aug. 25:12.5 games back (99.9%, 0.0%)
Sept. 1: 10.5 games back (99.8%, 0.2%)
Sept. 10: 9.5 games back (99.9%, 0.1%)
Sept. 17:4.5 games back (95.4%, 4.6%)
Sept. 20: 1 game back (62.3%, 37.7%)
Sept. 24: Cleveland up one game (18.8%, 81.2%)
Sept. 25:Tied for division lead (34.1%, 65.9%)
The Guardians now lead the division by that tiebreaker after just winning two out of three games against the Tigers. The Guardians host the Rangers while the Tigers are on the road in Boston.
Who wins the final National League wild card?
On Sept. 1, the Mets had a 94.5% chance of making the playoffs via FanGraphs, but after going 11-17 in August, they’ve gone 10-14 in September, including splitting the first two games in Miami this weekend. Their collapse might not be as disastrous as Detroit’s, but the Tigers also don’t possess a $340 million payroll. The Mets’ second-half woes have allowed the Cincinnati Reds to stay alive — and the Reds are 14-10 in September, having just lost two to the Pirates before rebounding with consecutive wins in Milwaukee. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are out of the race after losing their first two games of the weekend.
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With both Cincy and New York holding 83-78 records going into the final two games, the Reds are in control of the race because they own the tiebreaker after winning the season series 4-2.
The Mets will send Sean Manaea to the mound against the Marlins in Miami on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Reds will pitch Brady Singer against the Brewers in Milwaukee. The only way for the Mets to get into the playoffs is with a win AND a Reds loss. If any other combination happens, Cincinnati will head to L.A. for the wild-card round — and New York’s historic collapse will be complete.
Who wins the AL East?
The Toronto Blue Jays were five games up on Sept. 16 but have gone 4-6 while the New York Yankees have gone 8-1 — so now, the two teams are tied. Toronto owns the tiebreaker, having won the season series 8-5. The Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles to finish up while the Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays — and both won their first two games this weekend.
The eventual AL East champion will also be the league’s No. 1 seed as both teams will finish with a better record than Seattle regardless of how Sunday’s games play out.
Because of the importance of this final game, Toronto is scheduled to send Kevin Gausman to the mound — meaning he is unlikely to pitch in the wild-card round should the Jays lose Sunday. Luis Gil is the Yankees’ scheduled Sunday starter.
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Raleigh’s improbable season continues, and after hitting home runs No. 59 and No. 60 in Wednesday’s AL West-clinching win for the Mariners, he’s two away from tying Judge’s AL record of 62 — and Raleigh does have 11 multi-home run games this season.
Of course, “catch” has another meaning here: Can Raleigh catch Judge in the MVP race? Maybe he already has, as voters might find it impossible to ignore a catcher who has hit 60 home runs. Oddsmakers currently have Raleigh as the very slight betting favorite. But Judge, with another historic offensive season under his belt, holds a sizable lead in Baseball-Reference WAR, a metric that voters won’t ignore. If Raleigh manages to get to 62, it can only help his case.
How many 50-home-run seasons will we have?
Other than the Raleigh Watch, it feels like the barrage of 50-homer seasons has flown a bit under the radar. We also have Kyle Schwarber with 56, Shohei Ohtani with 54 and Aaron Judge with 52 — matching 1998 (Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Greg Vaughn) and 2001 (Barry Bonds, Sosa, Luis Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez) as the only seasons with four 50-homer sluggers. In fact, no other season has more than two.
But we could get five 50-home-run hitters with Eugenio Suarez sitting on 49, looking to join his Mariners teammate in the exclusive club. Suarez hit 36 of those home runs with Arizona before the trade to Seattle, but if he gets to 50, the Mariners will match the 1961 Yankees with Roger Maris (61) and Mickey Mantle (54) as the only team to employ two 50-homer hitters in the same season.
As for Schwarber, he’s two home runs away from tying Ryan Howard’s franchise record of 58, while Ohtani has already matched his own club record he set last season.
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This is the Rockies we’re talking about, so you already know it isn’t a good kind of history. They entered their final series at San Francisco with a rotation ERA of 6.64, tied with the 1996 Tigers as the worst in modern MLB history (since 1901) — And that number jumped to 6.66 over the first two games of the weekend.
A few random factors about Rockies starters:
• They have thrown 100 pitches in a game just twice all season: Kyle Freeland threw 100 pitches on April 8 and Marquez threw 103 on June 29.
• The only Rockies starter to pitch eight innings in a game: Freeland threw eight scoreless innings in a 3-0 win over the Padres — at Coors Field — on Sept. 5.
• The Rockies have three starters with at least 15 losses (Freeland, Marquez and Antonio Senzatela), the first team to do that since the 2003 Tigers.
• Rockies starters have allowed seven or more runs in a game 26 times.
We could keep going. It was an ugly season in Colorado.
A 163-game season? Devers has a shot
Here’s an under-the-radar storyline to watch this weekend, courtesy of ESPN Research: Rafael Devers, if he plays in the final game against the Rockies, will become the first to play a 163-game season since Justin Morneau for the 2008 Twins. It’s a result of his midseason trade from the Red Sox.
There have been five players to play a 163-game season in the past 30 years. Morneau that season, Hideki Matsui for the 2003 Yankees, Albert Belle for the 1998 White Sox, Cal Ripken Jr. for the 1996 Orioles and Todd Zeile for the 1996 Phillies/Orioles.
Morneau’s 163rd game came in a tiebreaker against the White Sox to decide the AL Central and all the other players were on teams that had games declared ties because they were rained out after they became official (which was the rule at the time). Todd Zeile is the only player on that list to be traded during a 163-game season (like Devers was this season).
Of course, all of them pale in comparison to a record that might never be broken. In 1962, Dodgers star Maury Wills played all 162 regularly scheduled games, plus all three games of the best-of-three regular season playoff series with the Giants — for a total of 165 games played.
Will this be Clayton Kershaw’s final start or game?
The future Hall of Famer announced his retirement last week and made his final start at Dodger Stadium last Friday, but he is scheduled to start the season finale on Sunday in Seattle. With the Dodgers’ postseason rotation likely to feature Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, Kershaw looks like the odd man out. Keep in mind, though, that Ohtani has had at least six days off between all of his starts, and Snell has also had five or six days off for his starts, so it’s possible the Dodgers will use more than four starters in the postseason.
Kershaw pitched an inning in relief Wednesday, making himself available rather than throwing his usual bullpen session between starts. It’s possible he pitches in relief in the postseason.
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“We have six amazing starters,” Kershaw said. “And so it’s just … yeah, I can do the math. So if I want to be a part of it in any way, I’ll do whatever they want.”
With the Dodgers relegated to the best-of-three first round, however, there’s the chance he never gets in a game if they’re quickly eliminated.
With that in mind: Watch Sunday’s Dodgers game. It might be the last time you see one of the best pitchers of all time.
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