First-Round Fantasy Basketball Draft Strategy: Every Pick Analyzed (1-12)

Securing a top-tier talent in the first round of a fantasy basketball draft is essential. But who should you pick after Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama? Our comprehensive guide breaks down what to do with every pick from 1 to 12. Get expert analysis on players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo to ensure your fantasy roster is set up for success from the jump. Don’t leave your first-round decision to chance.

Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide: Who to Pick 1-12

1st pick: Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

You can’t go wrong between Jokic and Wemby for the top pick in your draft, but we’re going to take a stand and ride with Jokic. Joker has been a Top 3 player in five straight seasons. He’s coming off the best statistical year of his career, averaging 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, 10.2 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.6 blocks and 2.0 threes per game. Nobody fills every category like that, especially since he has some of the best shooting efficiency as well. Not to mention, Joker has played at least 69 games in all 10 seasons, making him one of the most reliable players in the league.

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2nd pick: Victor Wembanyama, Spurs

Jokic and Wembanyama should be the first two picks in every fantasy draft, and you need to take whichever one falls to that spot. These two lap the field, and you’ve stumbled into the best draft spot with the second overall selection. Wembanyama averaged 24.3 points, 11 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.1 steals, 3.8 blocks and 3.1 threes per game last year. That’s even more impressive when you consider he won’t turn 22 years old until January.

3rd pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

It’s disappointing to miss out on Joker and Wemby, but SGA is a nice consolation prize at three. The MVP was the highest-ranked player on Yahoo last season, averaging 32.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. He also shot nearly 90 percent from the free-throw line on 8.8 attempts per game, which is an underrated asset for the rest of your roster. He can’t stuff the stat sheet quite like the other two, but snatching the league’s leading scorer and MVP at third is nothing to complain about.

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4th pick: Luka Doncic, Lakers

This is another one where some people will take Luka at three and SGA at four, but whoever falls here is an immense value. Everyone knows about the Doncic trade, but it appears to have lit a fire under the Slovenian. The five-time All-Star is in the best shape of his life and is expected to run the Lakers’ offense. He averaged 28.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 1.8 steals and 3.5 threes per game in a “down” year last season, but the Lakers want him to run the show like he did in Dallas. If we get a motivated Luka, he could finish as the best player in fantasy.

5th pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

If there’s one pick that I’m confident will be filled with the same player in every draft, it’s Giannis at fifth. Those Top 4 guys almost always get picked in those four slots, while Antetokounmpo is the obvious pick at five. The former MVP has been a Top 10 player for eight years now, averaging 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 0.9 steals and 1.2 blocks per game last year. Those numbers could creep up with Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton out of the picture, making Antetokounmpo one of the safest picks at fifth.

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6th pick: Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves

This is where things get tricky. I’ve seen numerous players get selected sixth because there’s a handful of guys worthy of this spot. We’ll ride Edwards as the consensus sixth pick because another step from superstardom into full-blown MVP status is not out of the question for this blossoming 24-year-old. He led the league with over 300 threes last season, averaging 27.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.2 steals and 4.1 threes per game. It would be hard to improve on those averages, but he’s improved every year of his career up to this point. This is the only player outside those Top 5 that could get into that group.

7th pick: Cade Cunningham, Pistons

Fans weren’t exactly sure what to expect from Cunningham in his return to action, but he showcased why he was the top pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. Cunningham posted career highs across the board, averaging 26.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 9.1 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.1 threes per game. He also shot 47 percent from the field and 85 percent from the free-throw line, establishing himself as a true 9-cat threat.

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8th pick: Anthony Davis, Mavericks

There’s always a question mark about AD’s health, but his 127 games played over the last two seasons are a solid number. The only real question is how he’ll translate in Dallas, but he was a superstar in his limited time with them. Davis averaged 24.7 points, 11.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.2 steals and 2.2 blocks last season. That sort of stat line has made Davis a Top 3 player in the past, and we even saw him flirt with a quadruple-double late in the season. The elite fantasy production will always be there, but the injuries always force him down the draft board further than the stat line would indicate.

9th pick: Trae Young, Hawks

Many people expect Atlanta to be one of the best teams in the East, and we could see a crazy assist total from Young. He’s always one of the favorites to lead the league in assists, averaging 24.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, 11.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 2.9 threes per game last year. Those point, assist and three-point totals are major outliers, and it’s why Young should be selected in the first round of every draft. The only concern is that guys like Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis could take away usage, but Young is favored to lead the league in assists yet again. He’s also played at least 73 games in three of the last four years, and that sort of consistency is key from a backend first-round player.

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10th pick: Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks

I wasn’t so sure how KAT’s role would translate in New York as a traditional big, but it bumped his fantasy value big time. Towns averaged just 8.7 rebounds in his final three seasons in Minnesota, but broke out with 24.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.7 blocks and 2.0 threes per game last year. He’s also got some elite shooting numbers from a big man, but the defensive numbers are the only thing keeping him from being above Young, Davis and Cunningham. If we can get those blocks closer to 1.5 while sustaining the rest of this stat line, don’t be surprised to see KAT be a Top 6 pick next season.

11th pick: Domantas Sabonis, Kings

Things get tricky after the Top 10, but Sabonis is as solid as it gets. The big man is actually one of the most underrated players in the NBA, averaging 19.1 points, 13.9 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.4 blocks per game last season. Those are on par with what we’ve seen over the last three years, and he’s another player that’d be higher if he provided some defensive statistics. That simply won’t happen at this point in Sabonis’ career, but adding a career-high 0.9 threes last season was a small bonus. We could see Sabonis’ assist numbers creep up with De’Aaron Fox out of the picture because he averaged 7.8 assists over the previous two years. In any case, this is a safe pairing with guys like James Harden, Stephen Curry and Devin Booker early in the second round.

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12th pick: Devin Booker, Suns ; James Harden, Clippers ; Stephen Curry, Warriors

Many people are disappointed with picking 12th when they pull up the draft room, but it’s actually a sneaky good spot. There are a few guys worth taking at this point, but the good news is that you get to pair them with the first pick in the second round. That’s why we’ve recommended three guys for this final spot, because having two of them is a massive bump for your fantasy roster.

I’ll start with Booker as my first option because he could have a crazy season with how shorthanded the Suns are. They parted ways with Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, which could lead to Book posting a 30 percent usage rate while taking 20-25 shots a night. He averaged 25.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 0.9 steals and 2.4 threes with those All-Stars last season, but that should be his floor this year.

When I wrote this article last season, I made a surprise pick by having Harden as my 12th player off the board. That proved to be my best call of the season, with Harden averaging 22.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 8.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 3.0 threes in a bounce-back season. His reliability is also unmatched, averaging 72 games per year through his 16-year career.

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Curry is the final option for the turn, and it’s surprising to see the greatest shooter of all time fall outside the first round. He averaged 24.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.1 steals and 4.4 threes in another sensational season. Some are worried about his age and injuries, but playing 70 and 74 games over the last two years should limit any of that concern.

Essential Fantasy Basketball Resources

Check out RotoWire’sHow to Play Fantasy Basketball guide for a complete walkthrough, but here is some basic advice:

• Check out custom NBA Fantasy Projections

• Look intoFantasy Basketball Mock Drafts

• Listen to aFantasy Basketball Podcast

• Check in onFantasy Basketball Player News

• ReadFantasy Basketball Articles

• Dive into RotoWire’sFantasy Basketball Draft Kit

• See RotoWire’sFantasy Basketball Dynasty Rankings

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