Realistically, it is a two-horse race, with Nottinghamshire’s fate in their own hands as they seek to win their first title since 2010.
Notts need 11 points from their final match, at home to Warwickshire, to ensure they cannot be caught by Surrey.
A win, worth 16 points, would be more than enough, but eight points for a draw, coupled with three of the available eight bonus points accrued via either bat, ball or some combination of the two, would also do the job for Peter Moores’ men.
Batting bonus points are achieved by reaching 250, 300, 350, 400 or 450 runs inside 110 overs of a side’s first innings. Bowling points are earned by picking up three, six or nine wickets in the same 110-over span of a first innings.
Surrey need to win at Hampshire to stand any realistic chance. However, if Notts were to somehow lose and emerge without any bonus points at Trent Bridge, then a draw and seven bonus points would secure another title for Gareth Batty’s charges against all the odds.
Should the top two somehow end up level on points, the tie-breaker is the number of wins they have achieved over the season, with Notts’ current six wins, two more than Surrey, meaning they would take the title.
T20 Blast winners Somerset once again took their fight for a first title to the dying embers of the season, but a determined rearguard action from Hampshire and the announcement on Friday of a four-point deduction by the Independent Cricket Discipline Panel for a sub-par pitch at Taunton for their game against Durham in July ended their slim hopes.
That is barring any further points deductions, and then only if both sides above them lose their final game while they take a maximum 24 points from their trip to Essex.
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