Yesterday, we examined some of the top sleeper names among National League hitting prospects. Today, we’ll do the same for the American League by profiling 10 hitters we believe showed strong enough underlying traits and in-game production to be considered potential breakout candidates heading into 2026.
Each of the 10 players below stood out among their peers when it came to a combination of contact rates, chase rates, exit velocity data, launch angle data and expected production. With this combination of metrics, we have good a baseline understanding of each hitter’s strengths and weaknesses and how well they compare to players who have produced similarly historically.
Edgar Montero, SS, Athletics
One of the top prospects in the Dominican Summer League this season, Montero bounced back from a slightly underwhelming professional debut in 2024 with a strong 2025 in which he slashed .313/.484/.580 with nine home runs over 55 games.
An 18-year-old native of the Dominican Republic, Montero backed those counting numbers with strong underlying data, such as a chase rate of just 13.2% and an impressive 90th percentile exit velocity of 104.7 mph. It’s not empty power, either, as Montero shows the type of angles that lead to a higher barrel rate. Additionally, his 17.5 degree hard-hit launch angle and 29.9% air pull rate show he has the ability to hit his best-struck drives in the air and to his pull side.
Montero will be a name to watch in 2026 as he makes his stateside debut.
Aron Estrada, 2B, Orioles
The 20-year-old switch-hitter reached Double-A this season just three years after signing out of Venezuela and impressed over 27 games with Chesapeake. Despite being undersized (5-foot-8, 142 pounds), Estrada matched his High-A home run total (five each) after the move to the Eastern League, as he hit .300/.355/.500 with a 15.5% strikeout rate.
Estrada shows advanced plate skills, with plus bat-to-ball ability showcased by his 15.9% in-zone whiff rate. His approach is more aggressive, but he rarely shows any passivity within the strike zone. While flatter launch angles limit some of Estrada’s future power production, he does flash excellent underlying power data. His 105.7 mph 90th percentile exit velocity ranks well against his age-based peers and is above MLB average.
If Estrada can tighten up his swing decisions and find improved angles, he could develop into a star.
Justin Gonzales, OF, Red Sox
Over the last year, no team has been as aggressive as the Red Sox in challenging their young prospects, and Gonzales is a perfect example of that. After a short stint in the Florida Complex League, he made the jump to Low-A Salem. There, Gonzales impressed with a solid slash line that paired with even better underlying metrics.
Physically, Gonzales is the total package. Listed at 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, he displays above-average athleticism and the ability to handle center field (though, many speculate he won’t stick there long term).
Gonzales hit .298/.381/.423 over 81 games with Low-A Salem before earning a late-season promotion to High-A Greenville. He shows a blend of above-average contact skills with plus (possibly plus-plus) raw power. At just 18 years old, his 17.1% in-zone whiff rate paired with a 106.7 mph 90th percentile exit velocity at a full-season level is impressive.
Gonzales figures to return to Greenville in 2026, and if he can add more loft to his swing, he could break out in a big way.
Nolan Schubart, OF, Guardians
If you’re looking to get in on the next high-risk, high-reward slugging prospect, Schubart is the latest in a long line of this fascinating archetype. Not dissimilar from the Yankees’ Spencer Jones, Schubart is a tall slugger with eye-popping plus-plus raw power, good angles and enough whiff to power a wind farm.
A three-year starter at Oklahoma State, the 2025 third-round pick showed the exact skills he did in college during his pro debut. The plus power was there, as were the good launch angles, on-base skills and massive in-zone whiff rates. He showed plus-plus exit velocity data with a 110.1 90th percentile EV while also displaying on-base skills and patience with a 18.9% chase rate. The angles were strong, as well, as evidenced by a 11.8 degree pull-side launch angle and a 33.3% air pull rate.
That’s the good—now for the bad.
Schubart’s 37.6% in-zone whiff rate versus Low-A competition is scary. How that translates as he ascends through the minors is up for some debate (spoiler alert: it’s a very difficult thing to overcome), but if Schubart is to find success long term against more advanced pitching, he will need to improve his swing-and-miss tendencies in a big way.
Ethan Frey, OF, Astros
Frey is the owner of one of the best professional debuts from the 2025 draft class. Over 26 games with Low-A Fayetteville, he hit .330/.434/.470 with three home runs and a 16.5% walk rate against a 20.5% strikeout rate. A 6-foot-6, 225-pound outfielder drafted out of LSU in the third round, he looks like he could be one of the steals of the draft.
Frey’s strong production is backed by excellent underlying metrics. He rarely swings and misses, as shown by a 15.4% in-zone whiff rate, and he rarely expands the zone. While his launch angles are on the flatter side of average, Frey’s underlying power is still noteworthy. Consider, for example, that his 108.3 mph 90th percentile EV is the same as Top 100 Prospect sluggers like the Mariners’ Lazaro Montes and the Orioles’ Samuel Basallo.
With strong plate skills, plus exit velocity data and a solid amateur track record, Frey is one of the 2025 draft’s most intriguing ascending assets.
Gabriel Davalillo, C, Angels
The younger brother of Rangers pitcher David Davalillo, Gabriel is a standout prospect in his own right, and few hitters were as impressive in their professional debuts this season. A January 2025 signee in the Angels’ most recent international signing class, the 17-year-old hit .302/.408/.518 with seven home runs while backing that production with some impressive underlying performance metrics.
Davalillo’s 9.8% in-zone whiff rate is easily plus and an excellent signal for how his hit tool will translate come a jump stateside in 2026. He also ran a low chase rate while showing above-average power in the DSL for a player who has yet to turn 18.
While his angles still need some work, and he’s yet to figure out how to drive the ball to his pull side, it should come together for Davalillo in time.
Hendry Mendez, OF, Twins
The 21-year-old Mendez has been traded twice, first by the Brewers to the Phillies in the Oliver Dunn deal in November 2023 and then again at the 2025 trade deadline when the Phillies sent him to the Twins for Harrison Bader. This may prove to be a savvy move by the Twins, as Mendez hit .299/.399/.439 over 118 Double-A games this season while walking more than he struck out.
Mendez shows pristine plate skills, as evidenced by a 9.5% in-zone whiff rate over a 491 plate appearance sample in Double-A this season. He rarely expands the zone and shows above-average exit velocity data in the form of a 104.8 mph 90th percentile EV.
Mendez should make the jump to Triple-A next season and could debut for the Twins at some point next summer at just 22 years old. He needs to add loft to his swing path, but if he can unlock more consistent backspin, he’s likely to make a big jump in our rankings.
Dillon Lewis, OF, Yankees
Every draft, it feels like the Yankees identify an underrated hitting prospect in the later rounds. The latest looks to be Lewis.
Selected in the 2024 13th round out of Queens College, Lewis impressed in his first full professional season. Over 122 games across both levels of A-ball, Lewis hit .237/.321/.445 with 22 home runs and 26 stolen bases, making him one of just seven players age 22 or younger with a 20/20 performance in 2025.
Lewis has some swing-and-miss in his game, but his 21.9% in-zone whiff rate is more fringy than it is bad. He makes up for it with average swing decisions and impressive power that resulted in a 107.7 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. Lewis’ combination of power, good launch angles and the ability to pull the ball in the air is his carrying tool, while his supporting athleticism and baserunning skills help round out the profile.
Improvements to Lewis’ hit tool are needed if he’s to sustain this production as he ascends through the minors, but he’s not far off from the pre-requisite thresholds for contact and approach.
Luke Stevenson, C, Mariners
While it’s a serious stretch in logic to describe a recent first-round draft pick who received a $2.8 million bonus as a “sleeper”, Stevenson’s bat was criticized heavily enough throughout the draft process to warrant inclusion.
While it’s a very small sample size against Low-A competition, Stevenson was impressive in his professional debut. Over 22 games with Modesto, the 21-year-old lefthanded hitter slashed .280/.460/.400 while walking more than he struck out.
Stevenson also posted some strong underlying data to back his 2025 production, hinting at an offensive profile that is perhaps better than expected. For example, his 15.1% in-zone whiff rate and 15.8% chase rate are both excellent markers, as are a 104.9 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and a 13.1 degree hard-hit launch angle. In other words, Stevenson made a lot of contact, swung at good pitches and hit the ball hard at good angles.
All small-sample caveats apply, but the early data is encouraging for one of the 2025 draft’s most polarizing prospects.
Devin Fitz-Gerald, SS, Rangers
A 2024 fifth-round pick out of Stoneman Douglas HS in Florida, Fitz-Gerald showed out in his professional debut this season. Over 41 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low-A, the 20-year-old switch-hitting infielder hit .302/.428/.482 with more walks than strikeouts.
Under the hood, Fitz-Gerald shows plus plate skills, running an 11.6% in-zone whiff rate and a 19.5% chase rate. Despite the lower chase rate, Fitz-Gerald isn’t passive, as he posted a 43.6% in-zone swing rate and a high heart-swing rate.
Fitz-Gerald isn’t empty contact, either, as he shows impressive exit velocity data for his age and experience level. His 104.5 mph ranks highly among players who began the season as teenagers and hints at more over-the-fence power to come. His launch angles are strong, too: 14.8 degree hard-hit launch angle and a respectable air pull rate of 23.9%.
Impressive data like that adds up to a player who could jump way up in rankings if Fitz-Gerald’s well-rounded debut production translates at higher levels.
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