With five series left to play in the 2025 MLB regular season, the wild-card races in both leagues are about as close as they’ve been all year.
In the American League, the Mariners and Astros are in a battle for the AL West title or the third AL wild card, with the surging Rangers nipping at their heels. Over in the National League, a recent skid by the Mets has made things interesting, with the Giants and Reds suddenly just 1.5 games out of the postseason picture.
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With every game feeling like a high-stakes endeavor for these squads, let’s take a look at where they stand going into the weekend.
New York Mets
Record: 76-71 (1.5 games ahead in NL wild card)
Remaining schedule: 3 vs. TEX, 3 vs. SD, 3 vs. WSH, 3 at CHC, 3 at MIA
Playoff odds:78.1%
It’s panic time in Queens. After months of comfortably holding a playoff spot, the Mets have had a disastrous week that included being swept by the Philadelphia Phillies. Suddenly, instead of contending for the NL East title, New York is in danger of falling out of the NL wild-card picture entirely.
Things have been trending down for the Mets in the second half. New York is 21-29 since the All-Star break, which ranks fourth-worst in MLB. Their starting pitching has underwhelmed after a strong start, leading the team to rely on three rookie starters in Nolan McClean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sprouts to try to carry them to the postseason.
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Making matters worse, if the Mets are going to return to the playoffs, they’ll have to work for it, as their remaining schedule is no walk in the park. They face the Rangers, who are coming off a sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers, for three games this weekend and then play three against the San Diego Padres next week.
One bit of good news: Superstar Juan Soto has been a man on a mission over the past month, and after a slow start to his career in Queens, he looks like the version of Soto we’ve seen for the past seven years. But Soto can’t do this on his own; he’ll need the rest of New York’s offense to get going if they are to have any chance of fending off their wild-card competition.
Cincinnati Reds
Record: 74-72 (1.5 games back in NL wild card)
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Remaining schedule:3 at ATH, 3 at STL, 4 vs. CHC, 3 vs. PIT, 3 at MIL
Playoff odds: 12.5%
When the Reds hired Terry Francona to be their manager last offseason, the hope was that they’d be playing in games that matter down the stretch. And with 16 games to go, that’s exactly what they’re doing. It took a while for them to find some consistent offense to go with their strong starting pitching, but now that they’re hitting their stride and getting some good fortune with the Mets’ slide, the Reds have given themselves a shot.
One of the most interesting things about the Reds’ run in September is that the face of the franchise, Elly De La Cruz, has not been the driving force. And while the Reds’ star shortstop will be needed to get to October, one of the team’s biggest issues over the past two years was being too reliant on De La Cruz to carry them. So it’s a positive development that as they’ve gotten back in the NL wild-card race, it has been Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte and Ke’Bryan Hayes providing the spark.
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That said, if the Reds reach the postseason, it will be because their starting pitching carried them there. Hunter Greene has been one of the best starters in baseball in 2025, and over the past month, he has been joined by Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo, who are logging their best stretch as a rotation at the perfect time.
San Francisco Giants
Record: 74-72 (1.5 games back in NL wild card)
Remaining schedule:3 vs. LAD, 3 at ARI, 4 at LAD, 3 vs. STL, 3 vs. COL
Playoff odds: 7.9%
San Francisco has been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the past month. After being extremely mediocre for four-and-a-half months, they look like a team that is jelling just in time. The Giants are 13-4 over their past 17 games entering Friday, and as a result, they have a great opportunity to sneak into the postseason.
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The Giants’ offense was surprisingly stagnant after the acquisition of slugger Rafael Devers, but that offense has become a driving force behind their recent success. Devers, along with shortstop Willy Adames and center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, has been extremely productive. Devers and Adames each have an OPS over .900 over the past 30 games. And the offense has gotten a spark from rookie outfielder Drew Gilbert.
San Francisco will have to not only catch the Mets but also fend off the Reds to get to October. That’s a tall order, considering they have to get through two more series against the Dodgers, who are fighting for the NL West title and postseason seeding as well.
Seattle Mariners
Record: 79-68 (tied for AL West lead, 2 games ahead in AL wild card)
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Remaining schedule: 3 vs. LAA, 3 at KC, 3 at HOU, 3 vs. COL, 3 vs. LAD
Playoff odds:92.3%
It wouldn’t be a normal season without a second-half surge from the Seattle Mariners, who have started to make a habit of this. Seattle had been fighting to stay in postseason position through a poor August and rough start to September. But after multiple extra-innings victories this week and a poor showing by the Houston Astros in Toronto, the Mariners not only have stabilized but also are now tied atop the AL West.
Seattle has 15 games left to play over the next two-and-a-half weeks, but none of them will be as important as the three-game set against the Astros next weekend in Houston. That series will very likely decide which team wins the division and which settles for the third wild card. But in a quirk of the postseason bracket, they will very likely be playing each other in the wild-card round either way.
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Seattle’s starting pitching is usually what carries them to success, but it hasn’t been as strong this year as we’ve come to expect. If the Mariners have any hope of not just holding on to the third wild card but also overtaking the Astros and winning the AL West, their talented rotation quartet of Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert will have to be the best versions of themselves. If they can do that, Seattle could be in line to win its first division title since 2001.
Texas Rangers
Record: 77-70 (2 games back in AL wild card)
Remaining schedule:3 at NYM, 3 at HOU, 3 vs. MIA, 3 vs. MIN, 3 at CLE
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Playoff odds:27.0%
No Marcus Semien. No Corey Seager. No Adolis Garcia. No problem for the 2025 Rangers.
It seems impossible that the Rangers could be having this much success without their two highest paid and best players, but that’s exactly where they are. Similar to many of the teams above, the Rangers did not resemble anything close to a playoff team through the first half of this season. But unlike the teams above, this is still a team in a championship window after winning the World Series in 2023.
And thanks to a group of young players who have been dubbed “The Little Rascals,” Texas has a fighting chance to get back to the postseason after missing out on the October fun last year.
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Coming off a sweep of the Brewers, their next six games will likely shape how Texas’ season turns out. This weekend, the Rangers visit a desperate Mets team fighting to save its playoff hopes before heading to Houston for three games against a reeling Astros team trying to fend off the Mariners. A strong showing by Texas in those two series could put a new team in the playoff picture for the first time since July 11.
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