After collectively whistling into the wind for more than two months, the four most notable restricted free agents in the NBA are starting to splinter. Two have taken themselves off a market offering nothing, and neither was Jonathan Kuminga.
The stalemate between Kuminga and the Warriors remains precisely that, but they are steadily creeping toward resolution if only because every minute brings them closer to an Oct. 1 deadline.
The initial reaction to Cam Thomas returning to the Brooklyn Nets and Josh Giddey re-signing with the Chicago Bulls is to ponder whether that impacts the Warriors and Kuminga. The answer is, um, complicated.
Let’s begin with Thomas, who last week swallowed hard and accepted Brooklyn’s $5.99 million qualifying offer. With no market for his services, he reportedly had three options, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. One, stay with the rebuilding Nets for one year at $9.5 million plus incentives that could bring him to about $20 million. Two, re-sign for two years at $30 million, with a team option in Year 2. Three, sign the one-year qualifying offer, the only option that gives him a right to veto any trade and puts him on the market next summer, when the market projects to be more lucrative.
The market for Kuminga was slightly warmer, but not enough to force a move by the Warriors. He entered September facing two options. One, accept Golden State’s qualifying offer of $7.99 million. Two, sign a two-year contract at $45 million, with a team option in Year 2. He has shown no interest in that.
Kuminga has shown more interest in the qualifying offer – which gives him trade veto power and puts him on the market next summer – than the two-year deal preferred by Golden State that pays more but diminishes his leverage.
A third option could be looming, but the Warriors’ payroll has much less latitude than that of the Nets.
The Giddey contract, re-signing with rebuilding Chicago for four years at a reported $100 million, was almost a formality. The Bulls sweetened their initial offer (four years, $88 million), and Giddey’s representatives compromised on their pursuit of something in the $110-120 million range.
One clear and significant distinction between Kuminga-Warriors and Giddey-Bulls is that only the latter involves parties with mutual desire. Giddey and the Bulls envision a future together. Kuminga and the Warriors do not share the same dream.
Another difference is that the Bulls, mediocre in the inferior Eastern Conference, are building for years ahead. Giddey has been a starter since his rookie season with Oklahoma City and was a 30-minutes-a-night starter in his first season in Chicago. He is part of a core they hope can thrive in two or three years.
The Warriors, by contrast, are operating with urgency. With a veteran core of Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green – average age 36.5 years – they’re not looking beyond the next two seasons.
It’s conceivable, even likely, Kuminga stays with the Warriors – just as it seems likely that Quentin Grimes, the fourth RFA, stays with the Philadelphia 76ers. The difference there is, again, there is mutual interest between both parties, according to league sources. Philly reportedly is seeking to shed salary elsewhere to re-sign Grimes.
Aside from RFA status, Kuminga does not share a lot of parallels with Thomas, Giddy or Grimes. The Warriors will not offer JK the kind of contract the Bulls gave Giddey, and they have no plan to dump salary to retain Kuminga, as is the goal of the 76ers.
Kuminga signing the qualifying offer remains the anticipated outcome. The deadline to do so is Oct. 1. Meanwhile, Al Horford and the rest of the veterans in Golden State’s waiting room are quietly pleading for clarity.
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